Seahawks counting on new farmers, not new farm: OL/TE preview
The 2025 RG/C competitions have literally the same players as 2024, so it's up to the new coaches to make it work
One year ago I wrote that even though Mike Macdonald was telling us that the Seahawks would name a starter at right guard by Week 1, the reality of that situation was and (continues to be) that Seattle could not have solidified that position until the end of the season at the soonest because of how little they invested at guard in 2024. Now here we are 12 months later and the Seahawks have yet to name a right guard between Anthony Bradford and Christian Haynes.
I could literally — in the intended sense of the word — copy and paste most of what I wrote about right guard and center from last season and post it for today’s preview of the offensive line and the message will not have changed:
The reaction to Olu and Bradford struggling shouldn’t be, “Why are the Seahawks so bad at drafting guards and centers?”. It should just be, “Teams have to picked players on day three and most of them don’t become good starters.”
When Haynes was drafted I did write that I expected him to start because since 2005 the only other day one or day two Seahawks draft pick at guard/center to not start as a rookie was Rees Odhiambo. Should fans be worried that Haynes will turn out to be another Odhiambo? I think the best possible answer is…Why weren’t you already worried about that?
The only difference at center and right guard, even moreso than personnel which is practically unchanged from last year’s training camp, is that Macdonald tried to move up the date to pick starters from Week 1 to “as soon as possible”. But I wasn’t buying it then and I’m not buying it now:
The Seahawks are getting exactly what they paid for at those positions and contrary to my prediction that Haynes would win one of those jobs (aside from a minor pec injury, a dearth of first-team reps has indicated to many that Haynes has fallen behind Bradford), the “bigger investments” aren’t seizing their opportunities to be NFL starters in five weeks.
Case in point, there are three starting offensive line positions on lock and two that aren’t:
LT: 9th overall pick Charles Cross
LG: 18th overall pick Grey Zabel
RT: 72nd overall pick Abe Lucas
Abe’s draft position isn’t significantly higher than Haynes (81) or Bradford (108) but that’s how it works out in the middle of the draft in that some turn out really good and many others are instant liabilities who never improve. Seattle could have thrown caution to the wind and made huge investments in guard Will Fries and/or center Ryan Kelly, both of whom signed with the Vikings, and today Seahawks fans wouldn’t have any questions about the starting five.
But just because we have questions now, over a month before real games begin, does not mean that the Seahawks made a mistake by not spending a guaranteed $45 to $50 million to avoid competitions in training camp that could last into the regular season and even into 2026.
In college, a neighbor of mine had a sign in the kitchen that read, “Go out on a limb, that’s where the fruit is.”
(The quote is often attributed to Mark Twain but likely belongs to journalist Frank Scully.)
It’s true that John Schneider and his former boss have been plucking from the same branch for years and getting rotten apples. Schneider could have sold the farm for Fries, but I kind of like what he did instead: He got new farmers.
Not only did the Seahawks invest their first pick in a guard, bucking expectations to the point that even Seaside Joe looked like the fool, they overhauled the least-experienced offensive line staff in the league with John Benton, Rick Dennison, and Justin Outten.
Fans don’t want Seattle to have weaknesses or uncertainty at center or right guard, but fans don’t expect their favorite team to have weaknesses at any position. The Seahawks went to two Super Bowls with J.R. Sweezy and James Carpenter as the starting guards, and a busier carousel at tackle than most of us care to remember during that era. The ride has not been as smooth at center since trading Max Unger to the Saints, but if Zabel is as good as the team thinks he is then the positions next to him will not be under as much pressure as they were in past seasons.
Wrapping up another training camp with questions at multiple offensive line positions is never ideal and it’s hard to vouch for Seattle being better than basement-low expectations (although I think they are) once again. But if Macdonald can hang his hat on anything when it comes to Olu Oluwatimi, Christian Haynes, Anthony Bradford, and Jalen Sundell trying to prove that they’re good enough to start for the Seahawks it’s that he’s been through this before.
Literally.
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Offensive Line Preview: Excitement/Worry Levels
LT Charles Cross: 7/10 hopeful
LG Grey Zabel: 8.5/10 excited
C Olu Oluwatimi: 10/10 not sure this is the starter
RG Anthony Bradford: 10/10 not sure this is the starter
RT Abe Lucas: 8/10 worried about his health
Cross didn’t make Brandon Thorn’s top-15 left tackles, which is a little worrisome for a player who was picked ninth overall in 2022. That being said, there is a clear emphasis on veterans: 13 of the 15 tackles on Thorn’s list have been in the NFL longer than Cross. Whereas receivers and running backs are expected to contribute immediately and then possibly trail off, tackles tend to move up tiers as they gain more experience.
No, Cross is not one of these immediate home runs like Tristan Wirfs, Rashawn Slater, or Christian Darrisaw. But it’s far too early to be concerned about him, especially given that relative to the other top-10 picks in his class (Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu) he is Tristan Wirfs.
Unfortunately — and more surprisingly — Lucas also failed to make Thorn’s top-15 right tackles; Lucas was, I think, 15th last year. There are a lot more young players listed at right tackle (5 of them were drafted more recently than Lucas) but there’s no real mystery here:
Lucas doesn’t play enough to warrant serious consideration to most analysts, nor do any of us feel like the sample size is large enough.
Right off the bat, Seattle’s two best veteran offensive linemen aren’t considered average-to-above average starters by the analyst that a lot of people trust the most to grade the position. Whether Thorn is worthy of that praise or not, that is the perception of the Seahawks tackles and that’s even more noteworthy given that Cross and Lucas were one of the league’s best surprises during their rookie campaigns.
How are you feeling about Cross and Lucas going into year four? Tell me in the comments if you’re a Regular Joes or Super Joes member:
It is not really a spoiler to mention that Seattle didn’t have representation at guard or center in Thorn’s other top-15 rankings.
Damien Lewis was at the top of tier-3 (7th overall LG) and that’s as close as we’ll get to a Seahawks connection on the interior. I will add that Fries is only the 11th-ranked right guard and that’s important to mention because it emphasizes how realistic Schneider is being when he says that guards get overpaid. That’s overpaid! Fries is making $17.5 million per season despite being an above-average guard who also missed most of 2024.
Even if Fries turns out to be an All-Pro, he is not being paid that much because of an abstract ceiling of talent. He’s paid that much because of the dearth of starting guards on the free agent market.
It is really no different than the Seahawks over-drafting Zabel, which yes, continues to be what they did even if we all love having him on the offensive line given the need there: Zabel was drafted much higher than prospects like him were valued in the past.
Ideally, Zabel would have been drafted in the second round — and that’s where he probably would have gone off the board in the recent and distant past — but Seattle didn’t overspend so they had to overdraft. Taking Zabel in the first round also presents a potential contractual standoff in the future, but the Seahawks have far bigger fish to fry with the pick (like him being really good) before we have to worry about that.
Oluwatimi and Bradford could be swapped with Sundell and Haynes, really at either position it turns out, and my feelings wouldn’t change much, if at all. It’s too early to say if the Seahawks are in a bigger hole at center and right guard than they were in 2024 or if they need to make more acquisitions before Week 1.
At least we know it’s the same hole.
If you’re already a paid subscriber but want to further help support Seaside Joe going into season seven of the newsletter (wow, it’s really season 7 of this) you can get a fan a gift subscription or upgrade your membership to Super Joes; Super Joes will get to participate in sending questions for the weekly Q&A.
I don’t have much to preview with regards to Seattle’s OL depth, but given the concerns with the starting five (mostly two of those players) I think that says it all already. If any of those backups are good, we will know soon.
Tight End Preview: Excitement/Worry Levels
In the interest of wrapping this series up, I’m squeezing in the tight ends.
TE A.J. Barner: 9/10 curious
TE Elijah Arroyo: 7.85/10 excited
TE Eric Saubert: 8/10 blocking
Barner ran a route on 27.5% of his plays last season, which is a really, really low percentage if he ends up being Seattle’s top receiving tight end in 2025. Consider this list by Fantasy Points Data, which highlights Barner as a very valuable receiver when he actually runs a route:
The next-closest TE on the list is Isaiah Likely and his route% was basically 2x as high as Barner’s. Using Likely as a comparison, he had 477 yards and 6 touchdowns with the Ravens last year while playing second fiddle to Mark Andrews.
If Arroyo is an immediate receiving weapon for Sam Darnold, the Seahawks may try to emulate the combination of those two as a model for him and Barner.
On the other hand, we know that Klint Kubiak was working for Kyle Shanahan in 2023 and at the top of that list you’ll see George Kittle’s 70.6% route rate and the leader in fantasy points per route. Which essentially just means that Kittle is very productive (1,106 yards, 8 TD) when he’s running a route. Plus, Seattle could look to San Francisco’s 2024 offense for other reasons, which is that their top receiver was Jauan Jennings and they only got a half-season from Brandon Aiyuk. (Bonus: Eric Saubert was there.)
If the Seahawks do have problems at receiver, like many fans worry they do, leaning on Barner and Arroyo in the passing game also makes sense.
Although Barner was drafted as a “fourth round blocking tight end”, that’s not much different than Kittle being a fifth round pick in 2017. Kittle had 515 yards as a rookie, which is more than Barner (245) but he ran more routes and he had Shanahan calling plays, not Ryan Grubb. In year two, Kittle had 1,377 yards.
Without asking for that much, couldn’t A.J. Barner gain half that much (700 yards) this season, if the Seahawks need him to?
What are your Elijah Arroyo/AJ Barner predictions for 2025?
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Seaside Joe 2346
I feel great about Cross. I think him and JSN are the two players I am most confident about on the offense. I am very excited for Lucas to get back also. Think he could be the best lineman on the team with the obvious Asterix that we don't fully know the injury situation.
But, knowing what I know now, I would sign Cross to a long term deal. And I would have a quick trigger finger to sign Lucas to a long term deal.
I’m thinking the offensive line will be a lot better this year with another year under their belt and more cohesion. It will shake out.
May the 12s be with you and Go Offensive Line.
Also thanks Kenneth for another enjoyable year of previews of the season.