It took the Seahawks something like 89 years to acquire an elite SE who can dictate coverage and get open deep. To trade DK would just mean that you would have to use the draft pick acquired to try to find another SE to replace him... good luck with that. Extend him, for Pete's sake. The cap dollars wouldn't kick in until Leonard Williams' contract is up, so there you go.
It seems like a really good opportunity to just keep the player. I wonder what sort of demands Metcalf will have, whether he'd be happy with a great number or if he's going to try and get the top number.
- I put an asterisk on "consistency" at quarterback and forgot to follow up on that asterisk: I just wanted to say that it wasn't meant as a diss on Geno. The Seahawks have essentially had two different eras at QB since drafting Metcalf split almost right down the middle of his career. He's maanged to be productive with both Russ and Geno, and even during a short amount of time with Lock. It gives me a little more confidence to think DK will continue to be a good player regardless of QB play.
- I want to hear more thoughts about Joey Galloway! I know that as I was starting to closely follow the Seahawks around 1996, 1997, those best highlights often came from Joey Galloway. Just that feeling you get when a player can score from anywhere on the field at any time. Would have never guessed we got to the point where it's almost like Galloway never played for the Seahawks. We just don't hear about him that often.
Ken, at the time I was a Boys fan and was jacked to get Galloway until he went full Jamal Adams. My memories seem to think of them the same. I could be wrong though, maybe they got 90% out of him, but I don’t think so. Usually if a WR starts getting hamstring injuries frequently, they are a major question mark every week. DK has been like an Iron Man, and that’s probably because he doesn’t want TL to see him as soft!😂 Oh yeah, glad to see JA is NOT a possibility any longer.
Mike Holmgren never acted as if Galloway was a must-keep player. As I recall, he believed that he could build a perfectly good WR room without a top draft pick (which he pretty much did, Koren Robinson notwithstanding). In retrospect, I think that Galloway was gone as soon as he decided to hold out.
It helped he learned from Brian Blades and that the Hawks transitioned to one of the best passers in pro football history, Warren Moon. Huge run game with Mack Strong opening holes for Chris Warren. Almost like Aiyuk as you noted. Couldn’t key on any one player then and with Blades being a reception guy Galloway had room to run. A gazelle on the field.
DK is about to find his full measure this year under MM and Grubb. He will be in astronomical demand next year and we will get our 2+ first-rounders. Schneider pays a fair salary, knowing that over paying one guy at one position dilutes what is left for the many other positions looking to get a small part of what they imagine themselves worth. But then I came to love this game when guys played for the love of American Football. To many it was a second "job" without so much as insurance, should they break something. Friends got them to the sidelines and Wives toted them off to the hospital. They patrolled the sidelines on crutches, urging each other to greater efforts. It was called Community and no matter what, they never had to buy themselves a beer in public, for life. In a world of fast travel and business agents, the Game has changed. We will do well to recognize a place where we feel a sense of Belonging. A Place of real Friends and Family where you all carved out your own history. Where the kids can maintain life-long friends. Is the goal to play this game and never have to work again? What is 'rich'? My hope is DK excels and sticks around, not wanting to end up someplace in a huge mansion among strangers. He can flash this year and never find the same magic elsewhere. Or maybe he can. In any event, it ain't worth the gamble. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems Pete and John and all the Allen family is trying to grow something bigger than just a living run by the soulless Yale School of Business models.
If Metcalf puts himself above the team....I'd consider letting him go find a new home. On a per season basis (yes I know they play a lot more games per season now than in Largent's days) but on a per season basis I believe Metcalf is better than Largent - statistically speaking (yards, scoring, etc...(by the way what stats even really matter - open question for anyone to answer?)) For this reason alone I find it hard to be willing to trade or separate from Metcalf. I also despise excessive greed and I think it's killing our planet and many sports (especially college) and would not hesitate to part ways with a player putting himself above the teams best interests. This is why I soured on Russ and am really warming up to Geno. It's a team sport, let's act like it. I realize the pay structure in the NFL could use some tweaking, but it is what it is (for now) and we have to deal with it until someone gets creative in how they pay players (or a new commissioner) and changes the system. I say keep DK until DK wants for DK more than he wants for the team.
Very thought-provoking stuff! And you’re right, I wouldn’t wanna make this decision either.
Glad you mentioned about the likes, because I’ve I never come to the comments after reading your newsletter. Just never thought of it for some reason, although I only read you and Seahawks draft blog, and I always read those comments religiously.
Anymore, you are the only two sources I read. You two tend to agree on more than you disagree, but when you don’t agree, I usually think that the reasoning for both positions are valid. F**k homogeneity! 😉
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. Geno is in the same boat. Neither one will play in the last year of their contract as it is currently structured and I don’t blame them.
Will the Seahawks have enough money for both? One of them? If only 1, which one do you choose?
Kirk Cousins (36 years old) just got $45M a year with $90M guaranteed and Jared Goof (30 years old) got $53M with $113M guaranteed.
We also have Jamar Chase set to hit the market as well as CeeDee Lamb.
If the Seahawks aren’t good these decisions are probably a whole lot easier. But if the Hawks are good … these two are on a collision course!
But I tend to think that most teams figure it out for good players. And the Hawks have never shown a willingness to pay lineman. So that leave more for WR/QB.
Honestly dk is my favorite hawk right now...but you know what I like more...w's. And if he gets a new contract, they should do the opposite of what they did Geno (heavy on the incentives) for every time he gets penalized...say 2% deduction, more if it takes pts off the board. Not sure if that's even possible. But what a precedent! P.s. why are athlete's contracts so easily dishonored...a handshake in the real world means way more than a written document drawn up by God knows how many legal and financial professionals...if the average (ss) Joe...pun intended...doesn't like his wages and just decides to not go to work (hold out) he gets fired...would be interested in an article on this...thank you for the hard work, your newsletter is the bright part of my day a good 3 to 4 times a week!
I'm on the pay him side. My hope is that with Grubb our offence is about to open up with big years for JSN, Fantastic, Charbs and DK. Then at least we hold a bargaining chip in so far as we have other big skill players.
I'd take DK and Fant renewals over any other offensive players right now. Then with those done we can look at Cross/Lucas, add Quinn Ewers as rookie QB and be set for another 5+ year window.
Schneider doesn't have what he needs yet to make a decision around DK or Geno. Let 2024 play out, see what everyone looks like in the new offense, and then make your decisions. If JSN ends up being the best, or close to the best WR on the Team, I don't think you can pay DK. At least not to anything other than a 2 year deal, which he and his agent would poo-poo. Do we want to have $70M-$80M tied up at the WR position?
Now, if JSN just looks like a good but not great player, that's different. Maybe another 3 year deal for DK at market value makes more sense. Is this Lockett's last year? If so, letting DK go leaves 2 holes to fill not one. That's hard to do in a draft year you're probably not picking higher than 15. Does Bobo emerge as legit #3? That would change things. Does Hayden Hatton become Doug Baldwin? Unlikely (highly, as they are not close to the same type of receiver) but who knows.
Once we see how 2024 unfolds the decision could get much easier, or even more difficult. I think JSN's trajectory will play a big part in the decision. If he's Cooper Krupp, then DK might need to be moved. Also factoring into this is the 2022 and 2023 drafts. If some of those players emerge into blue chippers (Ken Walker or Boye Mafe for instance) then there will be mouths to feed, and can we really push $32M at DK?
For the record, both 1st-round picks received by the Jets from Tampa came in the 2000 draft. The Jets chose three-time AP John Abraham (#13) and TE Anthony Becht (#27). Becht played for 11 seasons, mostly as a starter, and must have been a terrific blocker as he caught only 188 passes for his career. Abraham had 133.5 career sacks and, remarkably, 47 FF—roughly one for every five games he played. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Jets never regretted that trade.
I continue to struggle with the valuation of DK. Lousy catch% and very average yards per attempt. But when he does catch the ball, big yards. (Note: why are catch% and Y/A not in the cited stats?). Interesting to look at Keyshawn’s catch% - not great either. Maybe we’ve been spoiled by Lockett. Anyway - would any GM outside the Seattle bubble rate DK top 5? top 10? If he really wants to be a “salary problem”, this is the year he needs to show up big - like 1500 yards big, and then we’ll talk.
That being said, I hope the coaching change leads to a blow-out year. If it doesn’t happen, I say we look for a better #1 receiver, while letting DK play out his contract. Yes, we lose him and Lockett at the same time, Schneider needs to figure that out. Another solid middling year doesn’t get him $30M+.
This is FWIW and may not be representative (or it may be):
Sometime last season, SSJ showed breakdown film of a run by either Walker or Charbonnet. As I recall, it was a solid play. Anyway, I noticed that Metcalf’s defender kept looking to where the action was like he wanted to join in, but wouldn’t get too far from DK even when it was clear that the play was a run. Plainly, he had been coached not to let DK out of his sight no matter what—I.e., you could tell who the DC feared. There is something to having a player like that.
The post that just missed the cut now officially has 50 likes :)
Haha. Perfect! Thanks!
It took the Seahawks something like 89 years to acquire an elite SE who can dictate coverage and get open deep. To trade DK would just mean that you would have to use the draft pick acquired to try to find another SE to replace him... good luck with that. Extend him, for Pete's sake. The cap dollars wouldn't kick in until Leonard Williams' contract is up, so there you go.
It seems like a really good opportunity to just keep the player. I wonder what sort of demands Metcalf will have, whether he'd be happy with a great number or if he's going to try and get the top number.
SEA MORE COMMENTS:
- I put an asterisk on "consistency" at quarterback and forgot to follow up on that asterisk: I just wanted to say that it wasn't meant as a diss on Geno. The Seahawks have essentially had two different eras at QB since drafting Metcalf split almost right down the middle of his career. He's maanged to be productive with both Russ and Geno, and even during a short amount of time with Lock. It gives me a little more confidence to think DK will continue to be a good player regardless of QB play.
- I want to hear more thoughts about Joey Galloway! I know that as I was starting to closely follow the Seahawks around 1996, 1997, those best highlights often came from Joey Galloway. Just that feeling you get when a player can score from anywhere on the field at any time. Would have never guessed we got to the point where it's almost like Galloway never played for the Seahawks. We just don't hear about him that often.
Ken, at the time I was a Boys fan and was jacked to get Galloway until he went full Jamal Adams. My memories seem to think of them the same. I could be wrong though, maybe they got 90% out of him, but I don’t think so. Usually if a WR starts getting hamstring injuries frequently, they are a major question mark every week. DK has been like an Iron Man, and that’s probably because he doesn’t want TL to see him as soft!😂 Oh yeah, glad to see JA is NOT a possibility any longer.
Mike Holmgren never acted as if Galloway was a must-keep player. As I recall, he believed that he could build a perfectly good WR room without a top draft pick (which he pretty much did, Koren Robinson notwithstanding). In retrospect, I think that Galloway was gone as soon as he decided to hold out.
It helped he learned from Brian Blades and that the Hawks transitioned to one of the best passers in pro football history, Warren Moon. Huge run game with Mack Strong opening holes for Chris Warren. Almost like Aiyuk as you noted. Couldn’t key on any one player then and with Blades being a reception guy Galloway had room to run. A gazelle on the field.
I loved watching Moon. If they got inside the 50, it was just about a lock that he would take at least one shot at the end zone.
One of those “if only” he been our QB in 80s with Green Manu Nash Warner Largent…
DK is about to find his full measure this year under MM and Grubb. He will be in astronomical demand next year and we will get our 2+ first-rounders. Schneider pays a fair salary, knowing that over paying one guy at one position dilutes what is left for the many other positions looking to get a small part of what they imagine themselves worth. But then I came to love this game when guys played for the love of American Football. To many it was a second "job" without so much as insurance, should they break something. Friends got them to the sidelines and Wives toted them off to the hospital. They patrolled the sidelines on crutches, urging each other to greater efforts. It was called Community and no matter what, they never had to buy themselves a beer in public, for life. In a world of fast travel and business agents, the Game has changed. We will do well to recognize a place where we feel a sense of Belonging. A Place of real Friends and Family where you all carved out your own history. Where the kids can maintain life-long friends. Is the goal to play this game and never have to work again? What is 'rich'? My hope is DK excels and sticks around, not wanting to end up someplace in a huge mansion among strangers. He can flash this year and never find the same magic elsewhere. Or maybe he can. In any event, it ain't worth the gamble. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems Pete and John and all the Allen family is trying to grow something bigger than just a living run by the soulless Yale School of Business models.
In my humble opinion there are two ways to get rich, acquire more or desire less. Good little blurb (and not just because I agree with you).
If Metcalf puts himself above the team....I'd consider letting him go find a new home. On a per season basis (yes I know they play a lot more games per season now than in Largent's days) but on a per season basis I believe Metcalf is better than Largent - statistically speaking (yards, scoring, etc...(by the way what stats even really matter - open question for anyone to answer?)) For this reason alone I find it hard to be willing to trade or separate from Metcalf. I also despise excessive greed and I think it's killing our planet and many sports (especially college) and would not hesitate to part ways with a player putting himself above the teams best interests. This is why I soured on Russ and am really warming up to Geno. It's a team sport, let's act like it. I realize the pay structure in the NFL could use some tweaking, but it is what it is (for now) and we have to deal with it until someone gets creative in how they pay players (or a new commissioner) and changes the system. I say keep DK until DK wants for DK more than he wants for the team.
...I think I’d just quit my job and move to Zihuatanejo to live with Red and Andy!
I love the references....even if I don't get all of them all the time. 'Shanks for the entertainment Kenneth.
Very thought-provoking stuff! And you’re right, I wouldn’t wanna make this decision either.
Glad you mentioned about the likes, because I’ve I never come to the comments after reading your newsletter. Just never thought of it for some reason, although I only read you and Seahawks draft blog, and I always read those comments religiously.
Anymore, you are the only two sources I read. You two tend to agree on more than you disagree, but when you don’t agree, I usually think that the reasoning for both positions are valid. F**k homogeneity! 😉
Thanks for all your hard work, and keep going 🙏
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. Geno is in the same boat. Neither one will play in the last year of their contract as it is currently structured and I don’t blame them.
Will the Seahawks have enough money for both? One of them? If only 1, which one do you choose?
Kirk Cousins (36 years old) just got $45M a year with $90M guaranteed and Jared Goof (30 years old) got $53M with $113M guaranteed.
We also have Jamar Chase set to hit the market as well as CeeDee Lamb.
If the Seahawks aren’t good these decisions are probably a whole lot easier. But if the Hawks are good … these two are on a collision course!
But I tend to think that most teams figure it out for good players. And the Hawks have never shown a willingness to pay lineman. So that leave more for WR/QB.
Folks, football is still a team game. How much better numbers would he have with a better passing scheme, a better QB and a much better OC.
DK is only 26, is 6 ft. 4, 235 lbs, runs a 4.3 forty, has 2% body fat and never misses any plays! Recievers like DK that don't come along very often.
I want to see his numbers next season with the new coaching staff and hopefully a better OL and D.
If his contract is in the ballpark with the other top receivers. sign him!
Honestly dk is my favorite hawk right now...but you know what I like more...w's. And if he gets a new contract, they should do the opposite of what they did Geno (heavy on the incentives) for every time he gets penalized...say 2% deduction, more if it takes pts off the board. Not sure if that's even possible. But what a precedent! P.s. why are athlete's contracts so easily dishonored...a handshake in the real world means way more than a written document drawn up by God knows how many legal and financial professionals...if the average (ss) Joe...pun intended...doesn't like his wages and just decides to not go to work (hold out) he gets fired...would be interested in an article on this...thank you for the hard work, your newsletter is the bright part of my day a good 3 to 4 times a week!
I'm on the pay him side. My hope is that with Grubb our offence is about to open up with big years for JSN, Fantastic, Charbs and DK. Then at least we hold a bargaining chip in so far as we have other big skill players.
I'd take DK and Fant renewals over any other offensive players right now. Then with those done we can look at Cross/Lucas, add Quinn Ewers as rookie QB and be set for another 5+ year window.
Schneider doesn't have what he needs yet to make a decision around DK or Geno. Let 2024 play out, see what everyone looks like in the new offense, and then make your decisions. If JSN ends up being the best, or close to the best WR on the Team, I don't think you can pay DK. At least not to anything other than a 2 year deal, which he and his agent would poo-poo. Do we want to have $70M-$80M tied up at the WR position?
Now, if JSN just looks like a good but not great player, that's different. Maybe another 3 year deal for DK at market value makes more sense. Is this Lockett's last year? If so, letting DK go leaves 2 holes to fill not one. That's hard to do in a draft year you're probably not picking higher than 15. Does Bobo emerge as legit #3? That would change things. Does Hayden Hatton become Doug Baldwin? Unlikely (highly, as they are not close to the same type of receiver) but who knows.
Once we see how 2024 unfolds the decision could get much easier, or even more difficult. I think JSN's trajectory will play a big part in the decision. If he's Cooper Krupp, then DK might need to be moved. Also factoring into this is the 2022 and 2023 drafts. If some of those players emerge into blue chippers (Ken Walker or Boye Mafe for instance) then there will be mouths to feed, and can we really push $32M at DK?
Glad I'm not the GM.
For the record, both 1st-round picks received by the Jets from Tampa came in the 2000 draft. The Jets chose three-time AP John Abraham (#13) and TE Anthony Becht (#27). Becht played for 11 seasons, mostly as a starter, and must have been a terrific blocker as he caught only 188 passes for his career. Abraham had 133.5 career sacks and, remarkably, 47 FF—roughly one for every five games he played. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Jets never regretted that trade.
"... I’m sure that he would be cited as more of a “Overwhelming and totally appointing” guy."
... this.
As of today, Metcalf is the best offensive player on the team. I can’t see giving that up for two second-round draft picks. Pay the guys who perform.
I continue to struggle with the valuation of DK. Lousy catch% and very average yards per attempt. But when he does catch the ball, big yards. (Note: why are catch% and Y/A not in the cited stats?). Interesting to look at Keyshawn’s catch% - not great either. Maybe we’ve been spoiled by Lockett. Anyway - would any GM outside the Seattle bubble rate DK top 5? top 10? If he really wants to be a “salary problem”, this is the year he needs to show up big - like 1500 yards big, and then we’ll talk.
That being said, I hope the coaching change leads to a blow-out year. If it doesn’t happen, I say we look for a better #1 receiver, while letting DK play out his contract. Yes, we lose him and Lockett at the same time, Schneider needs to figure that out. Another solid middling year doesn’t get him $30M+.
This is FWIW and may not be representative (or it may be):
Sometime last season, SSJ showed breakdown film of a run by either Walker or Charbonnet. As I recall, it was a solid play. Anyway, I noticed that Metcalf’s defender kept looking to where the action was like he wanted to join in, but wouldn’t get too far from DK even when it was clear that the play was a run. Plainly, he had been coached not to let DK out of his sight no matter what—I.e., you could tell who the DC feared. There is something to having a player like that.