Seahawks' DK Metcalf decision could change everything

What Seahawks decide to do with DK Metcalf in the next year will be team's biggest move: Seaside Joe 1958

I seem to really like writing about DK Metcalf and you seem to really like reading about DK Metcalf. February’s post explaining the salary cap to Salk because he suggested that Seattle should trade Metcalf to save money (they wouldn’t) to be more like the Chiefs (actually K.C. pays a lot for WRs, they just didn’t do a good job of it), received 53 likes/hearts from you, the fourth-most of any post I’ve written in 2024.

I find that significant not because it makes me feel the same as if I had a viral tweet (well if I had a viral tweet, I think I’d just quit my job and move to Zihuatanejo to live with Red and Andy!), but only due to the fact that I’m using those hearts as a barometer for what you want to see more of in the future. In fact, here are the “50 like” posts in 2024 so far, and if you haven’t been hitting the heart at all that’s fine but I’m just pointing it out to you know because I almost use that system the same as voting:

Seaside Joe’s 5-year anniversary post (55 likes)

Misconceptions about Ryan Grubb’s offense (55 likes)

Sam Howell could be best bargain QB acquisition of 2024 (54 likes)

Seahawks hire Mike Macdonald (52 likes)

Seahawks draft Byron Murphy (52 likes)

4 qualities that make Tyrice Knight a steal (52 likes)

Rams are team Seahawks should be worried about (52 likes)

Why Sam Howell could be at an advantage by not starting (51 likes)

5 ways Seahawks seem different without Pete Carroll (50 likes)

6 signs Seahawks are preparing for life after Geno Smith (50 likes)

I also really liked this post about “Seahawks no-excuse path to the playoffs”, which just missed the cut at 49 likes.

An interesting list. Actually, DK is only on it one time. But we can gather that aside from the breaking news posts (Macdonald, Murphy) and the anniversary post that you’re very interested in some of the new faces (Grubb, Knight, Howell) and for some reason people have always loved numbers in headlines and lists.

If you come across Seaside Joe articles in the future that make you feel like “I want to see more like this”, then leaving comments, sharing it with others, and upgrading to paid are all fantastic ways to send me the message and I promise to take the hint.

But also hitting the like button is the easiest, free-est, and most efficient way to do the same thing. (While we are on memory lane, this post from February giving John Schneider 8 trade ideas with his old friends around the league led to the most new subscriptions this year.)

Of course, in the case of the Salk post on Metcalf, perhaps what you liked was the salary cap part or the “We need to do something about sports talk radio” part, but ultimately there is no reason to talk myself out of writing about one of the best and most important players on the Seahawks.

For how much longer the Seahawks will keep it that way with Metcalf is perhaps the most important decision that John Schneider has to make in the next 14 months. And it’s something that Seattle could take care of right now, or they could wait until the relationship is beyond repair, but I do not expect Metcalf to enter the 2025 season on the Seahawks and with his current contract.

Either the team will change or the contract will change in the next 14 months. What should the Seahawks do? Let’s review some similar cases in the past.

That time Jets, Keyshawn couldn’t Groh together

I promise that I am not the type to just give you stats and expect that to be enough to make a fair comparison between different players, different teams, and different eras. We will add context! However, in the meantime isn’t it interesting just how productive DK Metcalf has been over his five years with the Seahawks despite not necessarily always getting that consistency* from the quarterback position that a receiver would appreciate.

These are his first 5 seasons compared to the first 5 seasons of former number one overall pick Keyshawn Johnson:

The numbers are extremely close through five seasons, separated by only four games played, four catches made, four touchdowns, and 350 yards. Totally different situations and eras of the NFL, but it could be fair to say that maybe Keyshawn was close to being a 1996-2000 version of DK.

Keyshawn’s career is always put in this category called “Underwhelming and disappointing”, but if he had gone in the second round instead of first overall, I’m sure that he would be cited as more of a “Overwhelming and totally appointing” guy. Also, this list is one of the most insane things I’ve seen:

Since you probably can’t read that on mobile, it’s Keyshawn’s relatives in the NFL: Cousins Chad Johnson, Antrel Rolle, Brian Rolle, Myron Rolle, and Samari Rolle; Nephew Michael Thomas. (His name is incorrectly listed twice on Pro-Football-Reference.) So the last receiver picked number one overall is the uncle of a receiver who won Offensive Player of the Year and the cousin of a receiver who is a borderline Hall of Famer.

Of course, Metcalf can relate to relations as the son of a former guard on the Chicago Bears.

Reminder: Always check the comments after you read the article for more commentary by me and the Seaside Joe community:

Keyshawn and DK can also probably explain what it feels like to be a very good receiver who is also constantly having to answer questions for why he’s not a little bit better. The Jets picked Keyshawn first overall in 1996 (and within a few hours, the Baltimore Ravens added both Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis out of the same first round class) and then he just consistently kept putting up better numbers than the previous season over his four seasons in New York, making the Pro Bowl in 1998 and 1999.

When Bill Parcells stepped away from coaching at the end of the 1999 season and replaced him with Al Groh, that was apparently the final nail for Keyshawn and he was traded to the Bucs for two first round picks in 2000. ESPN’s Mark Cannizzaro said at the time that the Jets “gave away” Keyshawn…for two first round picks.

Johnson is a known star commodity, not to mention the Jets' identity. Those picks are like lottery tickets. You never know if any of them will lead to a big payoff.

What was most disturbing about the Jets' trade of Johnson was that it seemed clear that Groh and the rest of Jets' management, caved in to the pressure that Johnson's agent, Jerome Stanley, put on them with his threats to have Johnson become a colossal distraction by holding out of training camp until he got a new contract.

Essentially, Keyshawn Johnson had two years left on his rookie contract but he wanted an early raise and was willing to holdout in 2000 if he didn’t get one. The Jets would not even consider it—and given the opportunity to get two immediate first round picks while relieving yourself of salary commitments to a receiver who was very good, but not very great, it seems like they actually did do the right thing—so they traded him and Keyshawn became the highest-paid receiver in the NFL at the time after the Bucs gave him an eight-year, $56 million deal.

The Buccaneers gave up two first round picks for Keyshawn Johnson—I think that’s two more first round picks than a team could get for a similar receiver now, which I wrote about in April—and ESPN was criticizing THE JETS for “giving him away”. Keep in mind that other receivers in the NFL in 2000 included Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Jimmy Smith, Isaac Bruce, and a few Hall of Famers with more to give like Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, and Cris Carter. They all made less than Keyshawn and teams didn’t have to lose two first round picks for their services, although to be fair maybe Tampa wouldn’t have had enough offensive firepower for Brad Johnson to win the Super Bowl in 2002 without him.

But the Jets should not regret trading Keyshawn. They probably regret the coaches that they let get away in the ‘90s (Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick) and the fact that their FOUR first round picks in 2000 didn’t work out as planned (Parcells was basically only around long enough to pick them and then he was gone). Trading Keyshawn is one of the rare Jets decisions that looks better with hindsight.

After four seasons, 57 games, and only 17 touchdowns scored for Tampa Bay, Keyshawn was traded to the Cowboys in 2004. For this guy…

“That team is more than one Galloway from competing”

I know that there are people reading this who are far more qualified to talk about Joey Galloway than I am, so any additional insights you want to put in the comments are greatly appreciated. By comparison to DK Metcalf though, the numbers through five seasons are again similar, as is the reputation: Both guys are as feared as any receiver in the league based on being an athletic marvel among their peers.

Galloway played in 11 fewer games over his first five seasons than Metcalf, but he averaged 4 catches and 62.8 yards per game with the Seahawks. Metcalf’s career game averages are 4.5 catches and 65 yards. Galloway still almost scored as many touchdowns (43 to 37) and was a rushing threat in his first three seasons by gaining over 300 yards on the ground.

Just two months before the Jets traded Keyshawn, the Seahawks traded Galloway to the Cowboys for two first round picks, the first of which was used to draft Shaun Alexander in 2000. The second pick was used to draft Koren Robinson in 2001, after Seattle made a small trade down with the 49ers.

Again, and as it always seems to be, the issues came down to money.

Set to be a free agent in 2000, the Seahawks offered Galloway a seven-year, $35 million contract in 1999, but it was never enough to end his holdout that year, which lasted 101 day and cost him half of the season, as well as $837,117. That’s a lot of money now, it was even more money back then. I mean, I barely even make $837,000 per year off of this newsletter, so I can’t imagine what it would be like to lose all of that cash based on a contract squabble.

(I don’t make $800,000 per year, but you can help me get a little closer if you subscribe today. Reminder: Whatever you pay when you sign up for Seaside Joe is the price you pay FOREVER.) Right now that price is $5 per month or $55 per year, I suggest you lock it in:

Unable to come to a long-term deal (and needing to go through arbitration because Seattle thought Galloway should be an exclusive rights free agent), the Seahawks gave him the franchise tag in 2000. Once the trade was finalized with the Cowboys, Galloway signed a seven-year, $42 million contract that included a $12.5 million signing bonus. Look, I’m not going to say that $1 million per year is not a lot of money (half of what I make through Seaside Joe is no joke!), but once you factor in the money that Galloway lost by holding out, it just does not seem worth it to me. Especially because almost no player ever plays out a contract that is longer than three years.

As I’ve already alluded to, both Galloway and Johnson only made it four years with their new teams before being traded for each other in 2004.

On the other hand, should the Seahawks have just caved into Galloway’s demands if it was only $1 million per year and they knew that the only money that matters is guaranteed money?

It would be easy to say “no” because we now know that Alexander became an MVP and Seattle ended up with a better receiver for Mike Holmgren’s offense than Galloway (Darrell Jackson, not Robinson) probably would have been. If not better, then certainly cheaper.

And I think I’d have to always say, “Yes, trade a receiver for two first round picks if he’s going to holdout from the team and stop playing.” That’s the only answer that makes a ton of sense for this situation.

However, what if the receiver turns out to be better than Joey Galloway? What if the offense is only going to be at its most effective with the star receiver that you already have on the roster? Look at the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk right now: It’s not just about a contract dispute, it’s the fact that San Francisco actually needs Aiyuk in order for their offense to be great and yet they don’t seem to be getting any serious trade offers for him. So they don’t want to pay him $32 million per year but they also don’t want to trade him for less than “a lot of draft capital”.

What if the days of getting two first round picks for a wide receiver are behind us? (They are probably both behind us and ahead of us, but right now no teams are trading first rounders for receivers with so many great receiver prospects entering the draft every year.)

Nobody’s really talking about this DK Metcalf situation that is about to boil over—except for Seaside Joe—and it seems like this exact scenario has played out time and time again. What happens in the end of situations like these ones? More often than not, when a receiver wants more money and his team is hesitant to give him near what he wants, the player and the team won’t be together for much longer.

Keyshawn was traded. Galloway was traded. The 49ers traded Terrell Owens in 2004. The Vikings traded Randy Moss in 2005. The Cardinals traded Anquan Boldin in 2010. In recent times, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, the Titans traded A.J. Brown, and the Packers traded Davante Adams right before the receivers got the new big-time extensions that they were demanding.

As nice as it would be to think that every time you trade your number one receiver, you will get two first round picks and become a better all-around team, there are plenty of examples of players who were as good or better with their new teams.

The Titans shall forever regret trading Brown. Hill has posted back-to-back 1,700 yard seasons. Adams—who didn’t have as many yards as Metcalf through five seasons in part because of opportunity (don’t make the mistake of comparing the two by numbers alone)—led the NFL in touchdown catches in his first year with the Raiders despite being their only significant receiving threat most of the time.

DK Metcalf is only 26! Three years younger than Galloway when he was traded and two years younger than Keyshawn when he was traded.

But younger doesn’t always guarantee that a player’s best days are ahead of him. And any time you agree to pay a player a top-of-the-market salary, you risk losing a lot of the value you’re getting out of him to begin with. (In a 2022 DK article, I wrote about how no player wants to be known for being a good value.) The Seahawks do not have an easy decision to make regarding Metcalf, yet John Schneider can’t avoid the fact that he has to make one soon.

What should Seahawks do with DK Metcalf?

Metcalf is entering the second year of a three-year contract, but as I’ve written in the past he is not likely to be happy with his deal anymore. I wrote not long ago that the Seahawks might want to just take care of him now, if they can, to avoid a messy and more expensive situation in 2025. The problem there, of course, is that now you’re paying a player again after he only played one-third of his previous deal. It’s not a great precedent, it’s not a great value.

Since Metcalf got $24 million per season with his 2022 extension—the numbers were predicted precisely here at Seaside Joe—he has since been surpassed in AAV by Justin Jefferson ($35), AJ Brown ($32), Amon-Ra St. Brown (30), Jaylen Waddle ($28.25), DeVonta Smith ($25), and Nico Collins ($24.25). He ranks 10th overall among receiver salaries, with the new baseline for a player of his caliber probably being $30 million per year.

Jefferson’s new total guarantee of $110 million is almost DOUBLE the total guarantee of Metcalf’s contract ($58.2 million).

Set aside your feelings about Metcalf, good or bad, there’s just a 0% chance that he and his agent are thinking that they will be happy to wait two more years for his next contract. ZERO. PERCENT. It is not going to happen.

Even if something unfortunate transpired that dramatically reduced his value and made it impossible to get an extension in 2025, well then why would the Seahawks keep him when they can save $22 million by parting ways?

As you can tell from the previously mentioned situations, this is not a new type of story: Star receiver feels he’s worth a lot more than what he’s being paid, he does not care how fresh the last deal is or how many years are left on it, he has an agent whose sole purpose is to run the business side so that the player can say stuff like “talk to my agent” when asked about his contract, and he knows that IF he was a free agent he WOULD get paid what he wants.

DK, for as far as we can compare players of different situations, seems to be on par with players like Joey Galloway and Keyshawn Johnson. I say that for only one reason: So that nobody can claim that because DK isn’t as good as Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, he has no leg to stand on. He’s got two enormously strong legs to stand on! He should be able to say he’s actually more valuable now than Galloway was in 2000: He’s younger and he didn’t hold out for half of last season.

If I was DK Metcalf, I would know that NFL careers are cut short by injury all the time and I would always want to be aware of when it could be time to get a new contract. He’s seen his buddy A.J. Brown get a new deal even though they both signed contracts in 2022. He’s seen the market for receivers go up by almost 50%(!!!) in the last two years in some rare cases. He could already be lining up his argument to get paid or get traded…

To which many fans would say, “Trade him then!”

Which I am not going to argue for or against, except to repeat that I do not think teams are getting first round picks for receivers right now, let alone two. So would you still say to trade him if the best offer was, say, two second round picks from the Panthers? Would it be better to pay Metcalf $30 million per year or to walk away for two second round picks from a team that might be drafting very early?

I don’t know! John Schneider doesn’t know either! If general managers knew what to do all the time, their jobs would be too easy and they would not be getting paid the big bucks. (Still, less than 1/100th of what I make per year through Seaside Joe.)

But I think this is the decision. The big one. The one that could define the first few years of the Mike Macdonald era, assuming there are a few years of a Macdonald era: Will the Seahawks pay DK Metcalf or trade DK Metcalf before the 2025 season begins?

I am glad I’m the person writing about it instead of being the one who needs to finalize it.