I might crush your dreams today

A first round G/C hasn't won a Super Bowl in how many decades?!?

Let’s start today with a question:

How many years has it been since a team drafted a guard or a center in the first round and then won a Super Bowl with that player?

As you can imagine, there are different ways to answer that question. Did the player get drafted as a tackle and move to guard? Did that player win a Super Bowl with a different team? Did that team win a Super Bowl, but without that player starting or even in spite of that player?

There is talk of how the Seattle Seahawks “need” to draft a first round guard like Tyler Booker or Grey Zabel so that he can become a top-5 player at the position and help the team win the Super Bowl…

It’s been 25 years since anything like that story has happened.

Here are a few answers to those questions:

• No team has a won a Super Bowl in over 10 years with any first round guard or center who they drafted, nor have any of those teams been to a Super Bowl

As you’re about to see, I’ll run down every first round guard and center pick since 2015 and rarely have any of these teams even come close to the Super Bowl, regardless of whether or not those picks were steals or busts. It didn’t really matter if the pick was Quenton Nelson or Laken Tomlinson.

• The last team to win a Super Bowl with a first round “guard”? The 2013 Seattle Seahawks!

The most recent first round guard to win or reach a Super Bowl is James Carpenter. Important notes about Carpenter: a) He was a late first round pick, b) He was drafted as and started his career as a tackle, c) He was okay, not great.

That win was 12 years ago and that pick was 14 years ago.

What about the last team to win the Super Bowl with second round picks at those positions? Easy. The 2024 Eagles are thriving with Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson.

Okay, but what about the last time that a team drafted a guard or a center in the first round and knew the entire time: “THIS GUY IS A GUARD! WE ARE DRAFTING A GUARD! WE LOVE HIM AT GUARD! THIS IS A FIRST ROUND GUARD!!!” and then they reached the Super Bowl?

10 years? 15 years? I had to go back 23 YEARS(!!!) and even then, the pick wasn’t great.

The Steelers drafted Kendall Simmons with the 30th pick in 2002, an oft-injured player who you couldn’t have picked out of a lineup with him and four day 2-3 picks at the same position, and Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl in 2005. By the time they won in 2008, Simmons was out of the lineup.

As is an ongoing theme here, a much better guard was drafted in the second round that year:

Simmons is the most recent example of a first round guard winning a Super Bowl with the team who drafted him. Remarkably, the Patriots drafted Logan Mankins in 2005 and he left the team in 2013; the final pick of the first round and an elite guard, Mankins never won a Super Bowl…the Patriots won the Super Bowl the year before and the year after his career.

It’s been 24 years since the Seahawks drafted Steve Hutchinson, a Hall of Fame guard, with the 17th pick. Maybe Seattle should have won a Super Bowl with Hutchinson, but ironically they lost that game to the team that picked Simmons.

The last time a team drafted a left guard, a right guard, OR a center in the first round who they won a Super Bowl with and that guy was a great player…is all one guy:

The Patriots picked Damien Woody 17th overall in 1999, winning one Super Bowl with him as a center, one with him as the left guard, and one with him as the right guard.

So the most recent example of a great interior first round pick who helped his team win the Super Bowl did not happen in this century.

So should the Seahawks use their first pick on a guard or a center?

If your answer to that question was “Yes” before today’s article, I bet it will still be yes. Opinions do not change that easily. There will always be that voice in the back of your head saying “This year is different” or “One of these players is needed”, and historical evidence doesn’t always lead to changing a point of view and that’s fine.

But if you’ve already been weary of first round interior line picks, this post will definitely confirm your priors. And the Seahawks have four picks on day two, which is also where 90% of the value of starting NFL guards and centers is found. It continues to be most likely that John Schneider will seek competition for the guard and center positions on day two, not day one.

The top-10 first round guards of the last 10 years:

1. Quenton Nelson

2. Tyler Smith

3. Chris Lindstrom

4. Brandon Scherff

5. Andrus Peat*

6. Alijah Vera-Tucker

7. Peter Skoronski

8. Cesar Ruiz

9. Laken Tomlinson

10. Zion Johnson

*The only player here to make it past the divisional round of the playoffs, which he did once

This is a comprehensive list of every first round guard drafted in the previous ten years, as well as first round centers and players who moved from tackle to guard. None of them have reached a Super Bowl yet and this is the main point I think you should take from that fact:

These players can’t be blamed for their team’s shortcomings, but even the best guards in history (Nelson, Zack Martin, Joel Bitonio) have little in the way of team success to show for their personal triumphs. Should those teams have improved other areas of the roster in the first round before upgrading at guard?

This is the last 10 years of first round guards/centers.

2024: No guards (yet?)

1.20 - Troy Fautanu, Steelers (tackle on move?)

1.25 - Jordan Morgan, Packers (tackle on move?)

1.26 - Graham Barton, Bucs (center)

The closest thing to a guard would be center Graham Barton, picked 26th overall by the Bucs. Barton could play guard, but at this time he is a center. The Packers drafted tackle Jordan Morgan 25th and they are considering a move to guard. The Steelers drafted tackle Troy Fautanu 20th and his position hasn’t changed yet but could in the future due to his arm length.

By sheer numbers, the 2024 first round is one of the weakest ever in terms of guards and centers.

Second round picks Jackson-Powers Johnson and Zach Frazier are off to faster starters than their first round counterparts. Third round guards Cooper Beebe and Dominick Puni were also full-time starters as rookies.

2023: One guard

1.11 - Peter Skoronski, Titans

If he had longer arms, Skoronski may have been a top-5 pick as a tackle. Knowing he’d likely have to move inside in the NFL, teams allowed him to fall to the Titans at 11. It seems as though Titans fans feel he’s good, but not worth a top-15 pick as a guard.

Four picks later, the Jets took edge rusher Will McDonald, a player who had 10.5 sacks last year. At 17, the Patriots took corner Christian Gonzalez, and he’s in “top-10 corners” conversation already. The Titans have gone 9-27 in the past two seasons, including 3-14 last year, and they fired head coach Mike Vrabel in 2024.

Notable day two picks:

• Steve Avila, Rams

• Matthew Bergeron, Falcons

• Joe Tippmann, Jets

• Cody Mauch, Bucs

• John Michael Schmitz, Giants

• O’Cyrus Torrence, Bills

2022: Four guards

1.7 - Evan Neal, Giants (on the move?)

1.15 - Kenyon Green, Texans

1.17 - Zion Johnson, Chargers

1.24 - Tyler Smith, Cowboys (moved to guard)

1.25 - Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens (center)

1.29 - Cole Strange, Patriots

Green missed the entire 2023 season, was benched in 2024, and then traded to the Eagles last week for nothing. Zion Johnson has been adequate and L.A.’s GM recently noted that the team is considering moving him to center. It’s virtually guaranteed that the Chargers won’t pick up his fifth-year option ($18m), which would mean he’ll be a free agent in 2026.

At 21, the Chiefs picked cornerback Trent McDuffie, and there were also some good defensive linemen available, including Jermaine Johnson, Devonte Wyatt, and George Karlaftis.

Tyler Smith is the success story, as he’s considered one of the best guards in the league now. He’s the right kind of first round guard in that he was drafted as a tackle, and he played left tackle as a rookie. Despite having some great guard and center picks in the last decade (including Zack Martin and Travis Frederick), the Cowboys have not managed to translate regular season success into the postseason.

Linderbaum is one of the best centers in the NFL, as was expected. If you’re going to draft a great center, 25th overall is about the tippy-top of when most teams would do that.

Strange has been one of the least-approved first round picks by Patriots fans since it happened. He wasn’t a standout guard before he got hurt, he suffered a major injury in 2023, and the team moved him to center. The Patriots took him over prospects like Karlaftis, Breece Hall, Boye Mafe, and Kenneth Walker.

Notable day two picks:

• Cam Jurgens, Eagles

• Ed Ingram, Vikings

• Luke Fortner, Jaguars

• Abe Lucas, Seahawks (tackle, but just a reminder)

• Dylan Parham, Raiders

In addition, seventh overall pick Evan Neal could be moving to guard because he’s been so bad as a right tackle.

2021: One guard

1.14 - Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets

The Jets traded two third round picks to move up for Vera-Tucker, considered to be one of the safest bets because of his skill and versatility. The pick wasn’t really a failure (New York picked up his fifth-year option, a $15 million bet that they want to keep him long-term) but Vera-Tucker missed the majority of the 2022-2023 seasons. He’s coming off of his best season and could get an extension this offseason that represents that.

The Jets have gone 23-45 since this draft.

Not only did the Jets draft a guard over edge rushers such as Jaelan Phillips and Kwity Paye, the Vikings used the pick they got from the Jets by moving down on Christian Darrisaw, one of the top left tackles in the league. To be fair, the Jets were in a bind because they drafted Mekhi Becton a year earlier, but nonetheless that position has been their weak spot ever since.

Becton has since proven that a team could pick up a bust at tackle for cheap, move him to guard, and then win the Super Bowl.

Notable day two picks:

• Landon Dickerson, Eagles

• Aaron Banks, 49ers

• Creed Humphrey, Chiefs

2020: One guard

1.11 - Mekhi Becton, Jets (moved to guard by Eagles)

1.24 - Cesar Ruiz, Saints

Ruiz was drafted as a center but really expected to be able to play anywhere on the inside. The Saints already had Erik McCoy, a second round center, so that slotted Ruiz at right guard, where he has been pretty “average” according to a Saints blog. Doubling-down on that pick cost New Orleans a four-year, $44 million extension in 2023.

Players picked after Ruiz include: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Love, Jordyn Brooks, Patrick Queen, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger, and Jonathan Taylor.

When you consider the Saints’ financial struggles, how valuable would a cost-controlled QB like Love had been to New Orleans in the twilight of Drew Brees’s career? (2020 was his final season.) The Seahawks picked Damien Lewis in the third round that year, and he’s probably better.

Notable day two picks:

• Robert Hunt, Dolphins

• Ezra Cleveland, Vikings

• Damien Lewis, Seahawks

• Jonah Jackson, Lions

• Lloyd Cushenberry, Broncos

2019: 1-3ish guards

1.11 - Jonah Williams, Bengals

1.14 - Chris Lindstrom, Falcons

1.18 - Garrett Bradbury, Vikings (center)

Williams played tackle in college and he’s only ever played tackle in the NFL, but there was a lot of thought at the time that he’d move to guard so in a way he’s kind of a guard pick. Obviously the Bengals figured they were getting a tackle, but didn’t know he’d end up being a mediocre one.

On the contrary, Lindstrom was strictly a guard and Bradbury a center.

Lindstrom has been one of the best guards in the NFL, and the Falcons haven’t had a winning record since 2017. They are 40-60 since drafting one of the best guards in the NFL. Bradbury has been on more successful teams (three playoff trips) but is a replaceable center and not what teams expect when they draft that position in the top-20.

Players drafted right after Lindstrom include Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Jeffery Simmons.

Notable day two picks:

• Elgton Jenkins, Packers

• Erik McCoy, Saints

• Connor McGovern, Cowboys

• Dalton Risner, Broncos

• Nate Davis, Titans

2018: One guard

1.6 - Quenton Nelson, Colts

1.20 - Frank Ragnow, Lions (center)

1.21 - Billy Price, Bengals (center)

If there’s ever a guard like Quenton Nelson in an upcoming draft, you won’t overlook him. Everyone expected Nelson to be great and he’s been great. Since drafting the best guard in the NFL, the Colts are 58-47-1 and 1-2 in the playoffs, including 30-37-1 since their most recent postseason appearance.

The Colts drafted first round Pro Bowl players at center and guard and over nine seasons together they experienced one playoff win.

Nelson was drafted one spot ahead of Josh Allen, maybe the best player in the NFL. Indianapolis was in a bind — they couldn’t have known that Andrew Luck would retire a year later — but then Roquan Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Vita Vea, Daron Payne, Derwin James, and Jaire Alexander were also available.

(Don’t get me wrong, Quenton Nelson is a great pick. Just saying, if there was ever a year to pass up on a generational guard prospect, the 2018 class was loaded.)

Similarly, the Lions drafted a four-time Pro Bowl center, which they don’t regret. The Bengals took Price, however, and missed out on a long list of talents, including Lamar Jackson.

Notable day two picks:

• Austin Corbett, Browns

• Will Hernandez, Giants

• Braden Smith, Colts

• James Daniels, Bears

• Connor Williams, Cowboys

• Alex Cappa, Bucs

2017: Zero

There were only two tackles drafted in the first round and no other offensive linemen. In the second round that year: Forrest Lamp, Ethan Pocic, and then three more tackles. Actually, all five tackles have had good-to-great careers: Garett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk, Dion Dawkins, Cam Robinson, and Taylor Moton.

2016: Two guards

1.18 - Ryan Kelly, Colts (center)

1.28 - Joshua Garnett, 49ers

1.31 - Germain Ifedi, Seahawks

Ifedi played guard as a rookie and then slid out to tackle in 2017 and presumably that decision sorta blocked Seattle from drafting one of those good tackles in 2017. At the top of the second round, the Chiefs drafted Chris Jones and the Dolphins drafted Xavien Howard. Derrick Henry and Michael Thomas were also second round picks that year.

Garnett’s career was a complete bust. After his rookie season, he never started another game. Kelly is a good center who has consistently dealt with injuries and he just replaced Bradbury in Minnesota. One first round center replaces another.

Notable day two picks:

• Cody Whitehair, Bears

• Nick Martin, Texans

• Joe Thuney, Patriots

• Isaac Seumalo, Eagles

• Graham Glasgow, Lions

2015: Three

1.5 - Brandon Scherff, Moons

1.9 - Ereck Flowers, Giants (moved to G later)

1.13 - Andrus Peat, Saints

1.19 - Cam Erving, Browns (center)

1.28 - Laken Tomlinson, Lions

Adding an All-World guard prospect in 2015, Washington instantly upgrades the interior of their offensive line by drafting Scherff in the top-5. During his seven years there, the team has two winning records (9-7 and 8-7-1 in his first two seasons) and goes 0-2 in the playoffs. His fortunes haven’t changed since signing with the Jaguars in 2022, despite him finally being healthy the entire time.

The point is not that drafting a guard makes you worse or that guards are responsible for teams being terrible; the only point is that even when teams have drafted great guards who are NOT busts, it hasn’t moved the needle.

Peat, like Scherff, consistently missed games every year of his career with the Saints but was a very good player. New Orleans had success in the middle of his career, even when he would miss 3-6 games due to injury, as his absence didn’t seem to have any impact on their chances of scoring: The Saints went 8-1 without Peat from 2019-2020, scoring more points than when he was active.

Tomlinson lasted only two years in Detroit before the Lions traded him to the 49ers for a fifth round pick. He’s been a solid player ever since, but Seahawks fans got a first-hand look at how “solid” can be overrated.

Notable day two picks:

• Mitch Morse, Chiefs

• Ali Marpet, Bucs

• A.J. Cann, Jaguars

Erving, who has played every offensive line position in the NFL, is just a bust. Second round picks Morse and Marpet have had superior careers to Tomlinson and Erving.

Seaside Joe has absolutely nothing against the Seahawks drafting a center or a guard. Anyone who looks at the roster is going to have the same thought: “Wow, if only the Seahawks could maul people up the middle!” and it hasn’t happened so what else would make sense other than the prioritize guards and centers in the draft?

Except that those maulers are often drafted on day two. For whatever reason, the maulers drafted in the first round have not been on successful teams. By no fault of their own, it hasn’t worked. Will the Seahawks be the team to end a streak that started with James Carpenter on the Seahawks? Perhaps.

I guess that’s why they call those players “generational”.

Pre-2015 first round guards/centers:

• Zack Martin, Cowboys, 2014

• Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals, 2013

• Chance Warmack, Titans, 2013

• Justin Pugh, Giants, 2013

• Kyle Long, Bears, 2013

• Travis Frederick, Cowboys, 2013

• David DeCastro, Steelers, 2012

• Kevin Zeitler, Bengals, 2012

• Mike Pouncey, Dolphins, 2011

• Danny Watkins, Eagles, 2011

• James Carpenter, Seahawks, 2011 (tackle)

• Mike Iupati, 49ers, 2010

• Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers, 2010

• Alex Mack, Browns, 2009

• Eric Wood, Bills, 2009

• Branden Albert, Chiefs, 2008

• Ben Grubbs, Ravens, 2007

• Davin Joseph, Bucs, 2006

• Nick Mangold, Jets, 2006

• Logan Mankins, Patriots, 2005

• Chris Spencer, Seahawks, 2005

• Shawn Andrews, Eagles, 2004

• Jeff Faine, Browns, 2003

• Kendall Simmons, Steelers, 2002

Seaside Joe 2206