I’ve made my share of critical observations about SDB, but I’m with Luis on this one. Staton does not run with the “running backs don’t matter” and he’s quick to praise drafting of good players whether there’s need or not.
"The Seahawks could've drafted CJ Stroud and lock in the future of the most important position in football just to select a tweener in Nolan Smith way too early! Then to trade up and get a cornerback in Joey Porter Jr that they could've had later! I just don't get it" Mel Kiper Jr
I wrote an article years ago on the confidence bias and how it affects the way we perceive the draft. There are so many divisive super-strong opinions this year about Jalen Carter and drafting a QB of the future that no matter who gets picked at 5, a big portion of the fan base will be convinced that Seattle picked the wrong guy.
I think this will be THE story of the first night if the draft. I also suspect that some of the outrage will come from people who were part of the very vocal negative outcry over Seattle drafting Ken Walker II last year and not even realize the irony.
"The Seahawks have a history of risk taking by drafting players with questions about their character. We'll just have to wait and see if they have learned anything from their past mistakes. Now, back to the Cowboys hitting it out of the park with their picks, I think they nailed it." (Literally any analyst on NFL network except Michael Robinson.)
"The Seahawks stole the best DT prospect in a decade with the 5th pick." Thoughts: 1) in Feb I put down $100 with a Vegas sports book that QBs would be the first 4 picks. I am sticking with that, but I do not believe Seattle will go QB even if one is available. Historically, odds are probably less than 20% that any of those 4 would ever be as good as Geno. Just look at the QBs taken in the first few picks over the past 20 years, an abysmal failure rate. Geno is just entering his prime and he will be our QB for the next 5-7 years. Our #5 pick will go for an immediate boost to our DL. 2) the football gods have selected a brilliantly talented DT who would have been the first pick by Chicago and orchestrated him falling to John and Pete at #5, our luck from last season, with the Russ trade, the emergence of Geno, and our draft picks, continues. 3) we will add a DE or Edge at #20 or top of R2 to pair with Carter. Those two, plus Dre'Mont and Jarran and the return of Wagz and Jamal will transform our defense. 4) add a WR3, an OG/C, and a backup RB and see ya'll in the playoffs. Go Hawks.
I think you make a great point about the next guy being better than Geno. I think the Seahawks need a better QB than Geno Smith. But when you measure his value to the probable value of the third or fourth quarterback in this draft class, it's not separate by much. He might still be better than the average QB3 or QB4 in a given draft class. Do I want the Seahawks to draft a QB who is significantly better than Geno? 100000000000%. Do I expect that to happen, even with the 5th pick? If I did, I wouldn't be expecting Jalen Carter.
If the Giants picked Drew Lock instead of Daniel Jones in 2019, nobody would have batted an eye. He's very much in a Geno Smith stage of his career and could yet develop.
I think he just needs to get over the shitty coaching he's experienced. Smith sounds like a good mentor, and PC is a QB whisperer. I really think his time with this organization will reset his confidence. Someone will come for his soon I think.
No one, including Rob Staton, has ever been able to give a coherent answer on the Drew Lock situation. The QB you draft must be better than the QB you have. Is Levis really a better prospect than Lock? How? He just refuses to answer (there isn't a good answer).
There is also the cost to drafting a QB. One, that means you miss out on another top prospect (D-lineman?) and the back up cost more than Lock in year 1 and outside of AR is probably not going to contribute on the field.
All that is to say, I really doubt the Hawks draft a QB. I am with you.
It's hilarious to hear Rob tout Levis playing in a "pro-style" offense at Kentucky while not acknowledging that Lock has 3 years of actual pro experience and now 1 year of training. Funny, amongst a bunch of other things which is what draft season is all about. Hilarious takes and projections.
The “pro-style offense” thing is overrated anyway. No college offensive playbook is anywhere near as complex and varied as a pro playbook. Plus, the college game is played in slow motion compared to the pro game.
And you’re up against NFL talent at every position plus the back-ups, and have NFL coaches and assistants looking at your tape within an hour of when it’s available, to scheme against you with shit you’ve never seen before. Hopelessly more difficult than running a “pro style offense” in college. Even SEC college
"Coming at you live from Kansas City. After that Round 1 we are proud to announce that [insert network here] have agreed to sign the best NFL writer around, who gave the best pre-Draft predictions and commentary- Kenneth! Welcome to the team"
Also there'll be at least three references to "But i didn't write back". One mention of 3rd & 1. Two references to Pete taking his shirt off. And because it's Seattle, we almost completely get overlooked by the entire NFL media who focus everywhere else instead, despite nailing the draft again and sitting in prime playoff contention spot.
Not to change the subject but sorta on topic: Does any of this pre-draft sizzle from 2007 remind anyone of Richardson?
JaMarcus Russell QB 6'6 258 LSU, Jr. 4.83
By: Robert Davis
As a redshirt freshman, Russell started four games, and threw for 1,053 yards, while completing just over 50% of his passes, with nine touchdowns, and four picks. As a sophomore, he took over the reigns, and had a very good season, throwing for 2,443 yards, while improving his completion percentage to 60.5, and throwing for 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Russell continued to grow this past season as a junior, and had an outstanding season. He threw for 3,129 yards, with an amazing 67.8% completion percentage, and 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
JaMarcus Russell has an unreal combination of skills. First off, he is absolutely massive, and legitimately could play on an NFL defensive line with his size. He is an excellent athlete for his size as well. Russell also has an absolute cannon of an arm, and will be one of the elite in the league as soon as he’s drafted. On the field, he has grown each season, and there’s no reason to see him stopping now. As a passer, he is accurate and efficient, and there is no throw he cannot make. Russell is a pocket passer, but has the athleticism and mobility to elude the rush or run for yardage when the opportunity presents itself. Despite all his physical talent, his biggest asset may be his ability to get his team to rally around him. He has proven to be a quality leader, and can make plays in big games.
Russell has gotten better each year, but he still needs to show a little more patience and discipline throwing the football. At times he’ll still get reckless thinking his arm strength can get him out of jams.
JaMarcus Russell has really come on as a junior. Everyone acknowledged his immense talent, but thought he would need all four years to continue to develop as a passer. He made major strides from his sophomore to junior year, and is now a legitimate candidate to be the #1 overall pick. He might need a little more seasoning than a player like Brady Quinn, but his upside is amazing. With Al Davis leading the Raiders, Russell may be the odds on favorite to be the #1 pick in April. Calvin Johnson appears to be the only player with a shot to go first overall aside from Russell.
Seattle predictably reached trading up in the first round for a running back that they could have had in the 2nd round ..They will never understand analytics or the repercussions that come with it .
Apr 22, 2023·edited Apr 22, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
My guess: pick #5 (at #5 or after a small trade down) will be highly predictable, almost boring. Pick #20 will be traded down and/or used in a puzzling manner. That’s the Seahawks MO.
So, for pick #5 they will say “they did what they had to do, we were expecting that player, no surprises, good for them”.
For pick #20, if it happens on day 1, it will be something like “what are they doing?” It will be called a reach or unnecessary. (Dawand Jones is one that will elicit some reaction, or some guy that is projected to the middle part of day 2).
Not a K9 “what are they doing?, RBs don’t matter!”. A move that’s puzzling even to the biggest PCJS supporters (like LJ).
So for #5 I’m expecting Anderson, Wilson, or Carter (though I’m open to surprises such as Stroud, Witherspoon, or Richardson, but I don’t expect to be surprised more than that).
For #20 anything’s possible. If I’m betting on chaos, names that will be chaotic are Dawand Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs (due to position) or Isaiah Foskey, Cody Mauch, Tuipulotu, Joe Tippman, or Musgrave (due to projection).
I don't know about Gibbs as Alabama never used him inside the 10 and I think he ran it only 4 times between the tackles. I can't recall his name darn it,, but the back from UCLA is 220lbs and does run it up the middle. K9 can do that but I don't want him getting beat up to much. Gibbs will go to a team who throws lots of screens. Bijon would be great for us. He will run inside or out, he can hit the homerun. Or we could line him up in the slot and our third receiver is solved. I don't think he will make it to 20.
I think Gibbs would be a great complement to Walker. They are very similar. Gibbs is 5’99 200lbs and can runs inside with power. Walker may be the better 1 down back. Gibbs is almost as good a pass receiver as Robinson and can run a full route tree. An added and important bonus is Gibbs can return kicks. The only thing that keeps Walker + Gibbs from being > Robinson is that neither of them can pass block like Robinson who deposits blitzing backers on their butts. Nevertheless I can see Seattle picking him at 37.
I predict old Robbie has a meltdown and gives the draft an F after the Seahawks pick Carter and trade up to get Bijan in the first round!
A+ from me though.
This would be my dream
Old Robbie would hate Carter, but be really okay with Bijan. Don’t strawman the guy.
You really think so?
The Seahawks will have to trade up from 20 if they want Bijan and I really don’t think Rob would like that—at all.
Rob has made himself into a straw man and handed out matches 😂.
I’ve made my share of critical observations about SDB, but I’m with Luis on this one. Staton does not run with the “running backs don’t matter” and he’s quick to praise drafting of good players whether there’s need or not.
"The Seahawks could've drafted CJ Stroud and lock in the future of the most important position in football just to select a tweener in Nolan Smith way too early! Then to trade up and get a cornerback in Joey Porter Jr that they could've had later! I just don't get it" Mel Kiper Jr
“The Seahawks didn’t draft the right guy!”
I wrote an article years ago on the confidence bias and how it affects the way we perceive the draft. There are so many divisive super-strong opinions this year about Jalen Carter and drafting a QB of the future that no matter who gets picked at 5, a big portion of the fan base will be convinced that Seattle picked the wrong guy.
I think this will be THE story of the first night if the draft. I also suspect that some of the outrage will come from people who were part of the very vocal negative outcry over Seattle drafting Ken Walker II last year and not even realize the irony.
"The Seahawks have a history of risk taking by drafting players with questions about their character. We'll just have to wait and see if they have learned anything from their past mistakes. Now, back to the Cowboys hitting it out of the park with their picks, I think they nailed it." (Literally any analyst on NFL network except Michael Robinson.)
"The Seahawks stole the best DT prospect in a decade with the 5th pick." Thoughts: 1) in Feb I put down $100 with a Vegas sports book that QBs would be the first 4 picks. I am sticking with that, but I do not believe Seattle will go QB even if one is available. Historically, odds are probably less than 20% that any of those 4 would ever be as good as Geno. Just look at the QBs taken in the first few picks over the past 20 years, an abysmal failure rate. Geno is just entering his prime and he will be our QB for the next 5-7 years. Our #5 pick will go for an immediate boost to our DL. 2) the football gods have selected a brilliantly talented DT who would have been the first pick by Chicago and orchestrated him falling to John and Pete at #5, our luck from last season, with the Russ trade, the emergence of Geno, and our draft picks, continues. 3) we will add a DE or Edge at #20 or top of R2 to pair with Carter. Those two, plus Dre'Mont and Jarran and the return of Wagz and Jamal will transform our defense. 4) add a WR3, an OG/C, and a backup RB and see ya'll in the playoffs. Go Hawks.
I think you make a great point about the next guy being better than Geno. I think the Seahawks need a better QB than Geno Smith. But when you measure his value to the probable value of the third or fourth quarterback in this draft class, it's not separate by much. He might still be better than the average QB3 or QB4 in a given draft class. Do I want the Seahawks to draft a QB who is significantly better than Geno? 100000000000%. Do I expect that to happen, even with the 5th pick? If I did, I wouldn't be expecting Jalen Carter.
Not just Geno ..Our back up is a better prospect then the OB’S in this draft...No way we are going OB ..Utter nonsense.
I think everyone over looks the possibility that Lock would be QB4 or 5 in this years draft. And he's had face time in the game.
If the Giants picked Drew Lock instead of Daniel Jones in 2019, nobody would have batted an eye. He's very much in a Geno Smith stage of his career and could yet develop.
I think he just needs to get over the shitty coaching he's experienced. Smith sounds like a good mentor, and PC is a QB whisperer. I really think his time with this organization will reset his confidence. Someone will come for his soon I think.
Great point.
No one, including Rob Staton, has ever been able to give a coherent answer on the Drew Lock situation. The QB you draft must be better than the QB you have. Is Levis really a better prospect than Lock? How? He just refuses to answer (there isn't a good answer).
There is also the cost to drafting a QB. One, that means you miss out on another top prospect (D-lineman?) and the back up cost more than Lock in year 1 and outside of AR is probably not going to contribute on the field.
All that is to say, I really doubt the Hawks draft a QB. I am with you.
It's hilarious to hear Rob tout Levis playing in a "pro-style" offense at Kentucky while not acknowledging that Lock has 3 years of actual pro experience and now 1 year of training. Funny, amongst a bunch of other things which is what draft season is all about. Hilarious takes and projections.
The “pro-style offense” thing is overrated anyway. No college offensive playbook is anywhere near as complex and varied as a pro playbook. Plus, the college game is played in slow motion compared to the pro game.
And you’re up against NFL talent at every position plus the back-ups, and have NFL coaches and assistants looking at your tape within an hour of when it’s available, to scheme against you with shit you’ve never seen before. Hopelessly more difficult than running a “pro style offense” in college. Even SEC college
"Coming at you live from Kansas City. After that Round 1 we are proud to announce that [insert network here] have agreed to sign the best NFL writer around, who gave the best pre-Draft predictions and commentary- Kenneth! Welcome to the team"
Also there'll be at least three references to "But i didn't write back". One mention of 3rd & 1. Two references to Pete taking his shirt off. And because it's Seattle, we almost completely get overlooked by the entire NFL media who focus everywhere else instead, despite nailing the draft again and sitting in prime playoff contention spot.
"Thanks for having me!"
I predict 2 things...Pete will say 'We're fired up!" and John will say "We got the guy we wanted."
The Seahawks had a chance to take a AR15 with the #5 pick. Instead they took a RB.
They’re going to get a C bc they’re not going to take a QB at either 5 or 20 and one of the “Big 4” QB’s will still be on the board.
But from the “Defense and the running game wins championships” crowd, will get an A- The minus coming from folks who think Carter is too big of a risk
They played the trade game as well as anyone.
Not to change the subject but sorta on topic: Does any of this pre-draft sizzle from 2007 remind anyone of Richardson?
JaMarcus Russell QB 6'6 258 LSU, Jr. 4.83
By: Robert Davis
As a redshirt freshman, Russell started four games, and threw for 1,053 yards, while completing just over 50% of his passes, with nine touchdowns, and four picks. As a sophomore, he took over the reigns, and had a very good season, throwing for 2,443 yards, while improving his completion percentage to 60.5, and throwing for 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Russell continued to grow this past season as a junior, and had an outstanding season. He threw for 3,129 yards, with an amazing 67.8% completion percentage, and 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
JaMarcus Russell has an unreal combination of skills. First off, he is absolutely massive, and legitimately could play on an NFL defensive line with his size. He is an excellent athlete for his size as well. Russell also has an absolute cannon of an arm, and will be one of the elite in the league as soon as he’s drafted. On the field, he has grown each season, and there’s no reason to see him stopping now. As a passer, he is accurate and efficient, and there is no throw he cannot make. Russell is a pocket passer, but has the athleticism and mobility to elude the rush or run for yardage when the opportunity presents itself. Despite all his physical talent, his biggest asset may be his ability to get his team to rally around him. He has proven to be a quality leader, and can make plays in big games.
Russell has gotten better each year, but he still needs to show a little more patience and discipline throwing the football. At times he’ll still get reckless thinking his arm strength can get him out of jams.
JaMarcus Russell has really come on as a junior. Everyone acknowledged his immense talent, but thought he would need all four years to continue to develop as a passer. He made major strides from his sophomore to junior year, and is now a legitimate candidate to be the #1 overall pick. He might need a little more seasoning than a player like Brady Quinn, but his upside is amazing. With Al Davis leading the Raiders, Russell may be the odds on favorite to be the #1 pick in April. Calvin Johnson appears to be the only player with a shot to go first overall aside from Russell.
With the exception that Russell was a pretty college player yes
Seattle predictably reached trading up in the first round for a running back that they could have had in the 2nd round ..They will never understand analytics or the repercussions that come with it .
My guess: pick #5 (at #5 or after a small trade down) will be highly predictable, almost boring. Pick #20 will be traded down and/or used in a puzzling manner. That’s the Seahawks MO.
So, for pick #5 they will say “they did what they had to do, we were expecting that player, no surprises, good for them”.
For pick #20, if it happens on day 1, it will be something like “what are they doing?” It will be called a reach or unnecessary. (Dawand Jones is one that will elicit some reaction, or some guy that is projected to the middle part of day 2).
Not a K9 “what are they doing?, RBs don’t matter!”. A move that’s puzzling even to the biggest PCJS supporters (like LJ).
So for #5 I’m expecting Anderson, Wilson, or Carter (though I’m open to surprises such as Stroud, Witherspoon, or Richardson, but I don’t expect to be surprised more than that).
For #20 anything’s possible. If I’m betting on chaos, names that will be chaotic are Dawand Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs (due to position) or Isaiah Foskey, Cody Mauch, Tuipulotu, Joe Tippman, or Musgrave (due to projection).
I don't know about Gibbs as Alabama never used him inside the 10 and I think he ran it only 4 times between the tackles. I can't recall his name darn it,, but the back from UCLA is 220lbs and does run it up the middle. K9 can do that but I don't want him getting beat up to much. Gibbs will go to a team who throws lots of screens. Bijon would be great for us. He will run inside or out, he can hit the homerun. Or we could line him up in the slot and our third receiver is solved. I don't think he will make it to 20.
Gibbs is really fast. But yeah, they are probably getting someone beefier to replace Homer later.
I think Gibbs would be a great complement to Walker. They are very similar. Gibbs is 5’99 200lbs and can runs inside with power. Walker may be the better 1 down back. Gibbs is almost as good a pass receiver as Robinson and can run a full route tree. An added and important bonus is Gibbs can return kicks. The only thing that keeps Walker + Gibbs from being > Robinson is that neither of them can pass block like Robinson who deposits blitzing backers on their butts. Nevertheless I can see Seattle picking him at 37.
Nailed it! I told you Pete would trade Geno to Houston!
(No. I don’t think this will happen and I don’t want it to.)
They'll be saying "it wasn't as good as last years"
Sh*t! They should have taken a long snapper with #5! We lost our long snapper and they don't grow on trees!