Let's not forget where most quarterbacks came from
Seaside Joe 1288: Yes, great QB prospects are drafted early. No, not all great QBs were great QB prospects.
I was reading over a list of QB power rankings this week and I was struck by the number of top-tier quarterbacks who were basically available to at least half, if not all, of the league during the draft. It was just a matter of being the franchise that could see “THE FRANCHISE” that lies within the greatest to ever do it.
I have emphasized two important points about finding franchise quarterbacks and while they appear to be contradictory, I don’t believe that they actually are:
The best QB prospects are drafted EARLY
The best QBs come from all different places
When I watch Alabama quarterback Bryce Young play football, I see talent there that hasn’t existed in a prospect in at least a decade. Anyone who argues against Young as the best quarterback for the 2023 draft, it’s not that I think you’re wrong—there are shades of gray in everything—but I do think you’re talking yourself out of something that should be a lot less complicated than we make it out to be these days.
And “talking yourself out of a prospect” is how a lot of these names ended up available to practically the entire NFL on draft day.
Similary, when I watch Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall play football, I see leadership, decision-making skills, and accuracy unlike any other passer in college, with a mix of razzle dazzle in every start, and it appears that I’m just about the only one who sees it.
Unlike Russell Wilson, who was a consensus great quarterback coming out of Wisconsin but fell to the third round because most expected his height to prevent him from competing against NFL-sized competition (note about Bryce Young: if Wilson had played a decade later, after Wilson proved everyone wrong about his height, he would have been a top-three pick—sometimes your draft status has nothing to do with your resume and everything to do with your era), McCall is just not viewed by most to be a draftable quarterback.
And yet one thing I am certain of is that McCall will have an NFL career. It could be ten years as a backup, but I’ll be shocked if an NFL team doesn’t want to come out of 2023 camp with a FOOTBALL PLAYER like Grayson McCall on its roster.
Bryce Young at first overall or Grayson McCall as Mr. Irrelevant?
I don’t have the answer for you to today but this is what I can tell you any time of year: We just don’t know which quarterbacks will prove to be elite until they prove to be elite.
The higher you pick a quarterback, the greater the odds of him becoming the starter that franchises feel they can consistently win with. But you will be surprised how often those types of franchise quarterbacks are available to teams who aren’t picking in the top-10. So when the Seattle Seahawks started 1-0 on Monday Night Football, it may have felt like they lowered their odds of being able to pick Young or C.J. Stroud or whoever your favorite quarterback prospect will be in 2023.
But I’ve maintained since the miracle of the 2010 wild card game that YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. At all times. And teams that tank end up getting exactly what they deserve.
Sam Bradford.
JaMarcus Russell.
Jared Goff.
Baker Mayfield.
The Seahawks will be searching for a franchise quarterback in 2023 and with four picks in the first two rounds, we should expect him to come through the draft. However, Seattle doesn’t need to pick the first guy available in order to become successful and that is often not how teams find those types of quarterbacks. Yes, I do believe that Young will make the team that drafts him immediately better, but for every elite prospect that you’re willing to trade your soul for, don’t forget about the “Grayson McCall” prospects who are waiting to prove that NFL scouts and general managers are playing a guessing game with each selection.
Just look at how these quarterbacks got their start:
Patrick Mahomes
Draft pick: 10 (trade up 17 spots)
It’s not only that nine teams passed on Mahomes in 2017 (Browns, Bears, 49ers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Bengals), but the Bills also traded down 17 spots to let Andy Reid go get his man when the Texas Tech QB slipped that far in the draft order. Which also means that basically the entire league could have made a trade with Buffalo for Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.
Including the Seahawks, when John Schneider and Pete Carroll ended up getting a little too cute with trade downs instead of making the ballsy move for Mahomes—one of the only QBs that the GM has ever coveted since the team picked Russell Wilson in 2012. Seattle was picking 26th that year, one ahead of the Chiefs, so they could have usurped Reid by making the exact same trade offer of two first round picks.
Kansas City even got back a third rounder from the Bills in the deal.
Josh Allen
Draft pick: 7 (trade up from 12)
One year later, Buffalo atoned for their mistake by trading a first and two seconds to the Buccaneers for the rights to draft Allen. And the Bills still kept their other first round pick that year, using it on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.
Using the exact same formula, Seattle might be able to trade up by offering two second rounders with a first instead of two first rounders.
Teams that regret passing on Allen include not only the teams that drafted QBs (Mayfield, Sam Darnold) but also the Giants, Broncos, and Colts, who could have anticipated a bumpy road with Andrew Luck after he had missed the entire 2017 season.
Justin Herbert
Draft pick: 6
The Bengals tabbed Joe Burrow at 1, but the Commanders, Lions, Giants, and Dolphins all talked themselves out of Justin Herbert. The Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, Bucs, and 49ers are all teams I would say had a striking distance trade up if they wanted to be bold.
Tom Brady
Draft pick: 199
Aaron Rodgers
Draft pick: 25
Russell Wilson
Draft pick: 75
Many stories have been written about Wilson, Brady and Rodgers’ draft nights.
Kirk Cousins
Draft pick: 102
Anyone curious about the potential of double-dipping at quarterback will remember Washington’s decision to draft Cousins four rounds after they picked RGIII. All 32 teams evaluted Cousins coming out of Michigan State and all 32 teams passed on him. It took a few years for him to develop into a player capable of starting in the NFL but he is now in his eighth year as a QB1 who is efficient enough to get the job done usually.
Lamar Jackson
Draft pick: 32 (trade up from 52)
It’s not only that LJ fell to the last pick of the first round in 2018, but that Baltimore was able to move up from past the middle of the second round—jumping over 19 teams—to secure Jackson on a contract that he continues to play on in 2022 because of the fifth-year option.
Jalen Hurts
Draft pick: 53
No matter what you think of Hurts as a passer and whether or not he will prevent the Eagles from seeking out a new franchise QB in 2023, there’s no question that he’s outplayed his expectations as a second round pick who was passed over by nearly every NFL team. The Bills are the only team that hadn’t selected yet when Hurts was picked and they were on deck right after Philadelphia.
Derek Carr
Draft pick: 36
We know that David Carr would have selected him first overall over Jadeveon Clowney (coincidentally, the Texans had pick one) but almost every team felt that Carr would have no better career than his older brother. Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater were the QBs selected over Carr.
Ryan Tannehill
Draft pick: 8
There was some thought in 2012 that maybe the Seahawks, desperate for a QB prospect, could trade up from 12 to target Tannehill since Luck and RGIII were too far out of range. It’s better that Seattle didn’t do that, but Tannehill was also drafted after Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne, and Mark Barron.
Davis Mills
Draft pick: 67
I admit I’ll be surprised if Mills is starting for an NFL team in a couple years, but look at how far he has come after not getting picked in the first two rounds. Not only did five QBs go in the first round, but Mills was also drafted after Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond, the latter of whom was released by the Vikings already. Mills is starting for the Texans and he could use Cousins as motivation for what’s possible if he keeps getting opportunities to grow on the job.
The number one picks currently starting in the NFL
Matthew Stafford, 2009
Joe Burrow, 2020
Jameis Winston, 2015
Kyler Murray, 2019
Trevor Lawrence, 2021
Other top-three picks who are current starters: Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota
What the Seattle Seahawks decide to do at QB next year will shape the organization’s future in ways that we rarely see because these moments are few and far between. What we don’t know yet is whether that choice will push the franchise forward or set them back for multiple years.
I know that the pick could come early. History proves that it doesn’t have to.
This. This is exactly what needs to be said about drafting QBs. Being the first to take a QB doesn't make the guy you picked the best. Good talent evaluation, proper coaching and development, a good core around him, and some luck all contribute. As someone else pointed out, the hit rate on QBs picked in the first 3 rounds is something like 24%. It's terrible odds. Picking the right one is both a skill and a crapshoot.
Thanks for your insights, Kenneth. Couldn't agree more. In 1983, everyone said John Elway was the kind of QB who comes along once every 25 years. That was the consensus. Elway, it turns out, was pretty great. But not at the level predicted. Great stature but couldn't move much. Super strong arm but not great touch. Good enough to win a Superbowl (eventually) and for the Hall, but not better than Dan Marino, the fifth quarterback taken.