This. This is exactly what needs to be said about drafting QBs. Being the first to take a QB doesn't make the guy you picked the best. Good talent evaluation, proper coaching and development, a good core around him, and some luck all contribute. As someone else pointed out, the hit rate on QBs picked in the first 3 rounds is something like 24%. It's terrible odds. Picking the right one is both a skill and a crapshoot.
Yeah great points and if I could re-write this article I would add that part about proper coach and a good core: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Russ, Brady...look at the teams they went to. Make a great team and then find a great QB. Lucky for Seattle that they have Pete and a winning philosophy.
Yep, no coincidence that good coaches produced good QBs. Allen is another really interesting one, a lot of us forget that the Bills made the playoffs (ending the longest drought at the time) before they drafted him. When they got him, they were also patient, not writing him off as I or some others did when he looked shaky to start out.
You are so right. Even though it was clear that John Elway was going to be superb, until he had a team around him, Denver continued to struggle.
I like to remind people that RW was Not an elite QB yet when the Hawks went to two Superbowls.
So many elite QBs have never been to the championship game. Ignoring the need to build a championship caliber squad is Not something I worry that JS/PC will do.
Oh yeah super agree. That's a Brett Kollman insight if I'm not mistaken. The number one factor as to whether or not a QB succeeds in the league is where he ends up. Can the team protect him and put him in a position to be successful? Moving to the NFL from college is a huge step up in speed and difficulty, and either you have enough support to learn the right habits and adapt or you develop bad habits trying to make magic without support. Geno definitely learned some bad habits playing for the Jets. Maybe he had had enough time to unlearn those. But yeah, definitely worried about Trevor Lawrence in JAX, for instance.
Thanks for your insights, Kenneth. Couldn't agree more. In 1983, everyone said John Elway was the kind of QB who comes along once every 25 years. That was the consensus. Elway, it turns out, was pretty great. But not at the level predicted. Great stature but couldn't move much. Super strong arm but not great touch. Good enough to win a Superbowl (eventually) and for the Hall, but not better than Dan Marino, the fifth quarterback taken.
Thank you! What do you think would have happened if Marino had gone to the Broncos and Elway to the Dolphins? That one with Marino feels so much like Rodgers. Like there were so many people saying, "Wow this guy is so talented!" and somehow he still just drops like a stone in the first round. Divisive opinions but it's not as though there weren't a lot of people pounding the table for Marino.
I know. Impossible to predict. Elway was drafted by the Baltimore Colts. He had told Bob Irsay not to draft him, that he wouldn't play there. The Colts took him anyway, just before loading the moving vans in the middle of the night and sneaking out of Baltimore.
Would he have become anything playing for that dysfunctional organization? We'll never know.
Fortunately for Elway, he was also a baseball star. George Steinbrenner's Yankees took a flier on him in the baseball entry draft and tried to entice him to sign, promising they'd make him the next Joe DiMaggio.
When it became clear the Colts really stood to be stood up, they traded him to Denver.
My team back then, the NY Jets, took Ken O'Brien ahead of Marino. He was alright but would never get any consideration from anyone who casts a ballot for the Hall. But then, if Marino had played for the Jets, who would he have been?
I was in the Los Angeles area at that time. Being from Granada Hills, Elway dominated the headlines of the LA Times Sports Section. I was barely aware of Marino before he went to the Super Bowl. The Algorithm was different back then. Fewer narratives.
Thanks, Kenny. A hidden gem in this article: YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. I remember much of the 2010 end-of-season blogosphere was going nuts for the Seahawks to lose to the Rams, all because ten spots in the draft was so important. They don't win that game, there's no Beastquake a week later against the Saints. There's no Beastquake, a huge iconic moment of Seahawks football--perhaps THE iconic moment--doesn't exist.
That, and because of the win against the Rams Charlie Whitehurst can tell his grandkids he played in the NFL and led a team to the playoffs. Also FTR.
Thanks for writing so clearly. I believe I understand where you stand. I'm not opposed to taking two QB's next year unless Geno can play like he did in the first two quarters against the Denver Wilson's consistently for 4 quarters a game, and sometimes overtime. And Drew Lock could still develop. Everyone develops at their own speed. Lock could still become a reliable QB.
We’ll see how the QB prospects shake out but holy smoke the pressure to pick the right guy will be immense. Choose wisely and you’re a genius secure in your job. Choose poorly and you’re probably looking for a job.
Welcome to the NFL. If we screw it up, the rebuild continues and we try again two or three years later, when it's become clear the last guy didn't pan out. Or we find someone another way. There are teams in perpetual rebuild mode.
Not trying to pick an argument here, I just think calling that pick a fireable offense is a bit over the top. The pick is actually very similar to a number of other picks they've made, some great some bad. DK Metcalf, Frank Clark, Christine Michael, and Darrel Taylor are the exact same kind of pick. High upside (should be a high first round pick based on talent), but fell to round 2 due to some issues such as health, off field struggles, or concern over character. Nobody could have predicted McDowell would never play a snap for the team, and any ruling on that pick is hindsight. DK was a similar risk that panned out. Same with Clark. While I too hate that the kid never played for us, I don't look at it as a guy they never should have taken from a purely procedural standpoint.
My thoughts, pretty much exactly. We have made some head scratching picks. That said, I say that with hindsight. A lot of people thought the Hawks wasted a pick when they took Wilson. That draft got panned by the critics. When we took Dickson, the Texan brain trust was laughing at us.
A lot of us see Collier as that kind of head scratcher but that's only because he hasn't panned out. Penny carried the same designation until he broke out late last season. If there's a legitimate gripe, it's that there's a really good chance either of those guys would have been there in a lower round. But then we missed on guys like Budda Baker and George Kittle because we didn't pick them sooner.
The draft is impossible to ace. Too much luck involved. I think Seattle does it as well (and as poorly) as anyone else.
The Penny pick never bothered me. The issue with Collier is that it seems to have been a panic move when Noah Fant wasn’t available.
Re hindsight, fair point. But performance has to be evaluated on some basis, and Schneider failed to develop a SB-contending roster after he reloaded in 2015-2016. His OL picks were largely bad, and he wouldn’t adjust by changing his approach to free agency. This left Russell protected by the likes of Bradley Sowell and J’Marcus Webb when he came close to tearing up his knee. I don’t blame him if he lost confidence in the team leadership. For me, the McDowell pick was the last straw.
McDowell’s red flags should have been disqualifying. BTW, Taylor has not shown much since the beginning of last season, and they traded up to get Metcalf.
I think that is a big stretch though, to say that McDowell's red flags were disqualifying. I remember that draft well, the biggest red flags on McDowell were his work ethic/motivation, and the fact he was a bit awkward in media interviews. That's it. Nowhere in his draft profile did it say "enjoys ATV rides without a helmet." That situation was unfortunate, but entirely unpredictable. In addition, players like Clark and Metcalf had way more red flags. Clark was charged with domestic violence (though the charge was reduced), and the GM took endless heat for that pick. Metcalf had potentially a career threatening neck injury and legitimate questions about his agility. None of these players would be available in the 2nd round without these red flags, that's why we were able to get them.
I'm not sure why you think it's relevant that they traded up for Metcalf, it is still the same type of pick (high risk, high upside in the 2nd round). I'd also disagree about Taylor showing little, he had 5.5 sacks after week 1...criticize him for his performance on Monday all you want, but he didn't show "little" last year. He was 4th among rookies* in sacks (*yes he was a 2nd year player, but it was his first year playing).
Agree with Starhawk29 and Joe. You don't often hit on first round picks when you match numbers drafted and success over the last 10 years. I've often wondered if guys with a bit of a chip on their shoulder tends to add to their ability to play in the NFL. Brady, Wilson. Grayson is listed at #13 in NFL draft buzz. He might well be a great pick for Seattle.
I'll be following another guy who is now the starter at UW as a possible late round or UDFA for Seattle next year. Michael Penix Jr. (ranked #55 draft buzz) He's had injuries over his 4 years with Indiana (transfer to UW this year). He is playing for his old OC/QB coach 2019 DeBoer hired 12/1/21 by UW as HC. He was HC for Fresno St the last two years and 12-6 last year.
Penix
From UW Fan Nation : He also finished 12-5 as the Hoosiers starter, earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2020, threw five touchdown passes at Ohio State, completed 20 consecutive passes against Michigan State and led Indiana to victories over Penn State, and Michigan State.
He's coming off a big games against Portland St and Kent St at UW. ( 682 yards 6 TD's 1 IINT 69.7 %) They play a familiar foe # 11th ranked Michigan St. this Saturday (WA #57). It will be interesting to see the outcome of that game. He's a lefty and throws a pretty good deep ball. He has some mobility (Knee/shoulder injuries past) and has nice size at 6'3" 210. He seems to do well under pressure and I saw him throw a 30 plus yard TD strike running to his right that was pretty impressive.
It will be interesting in watching him and the Huskies this year as such underdogs nationally and in the Pac 12. I'm not saying he is his caliber but he actually reminds me a bit of Ken Stabler with his touch and deep ball.
It is cool to have the draft capital to hijack the early part of our draft if deemed a necessity. However I just feel that other opportunities will be there at QB that will allow us to get a Game-wrecking inside pass rusher, a Primo WR and a Big upgrade to the middle of our O-line with those other pics if we do not trade up.
As you have shown, close to half of today's starting NFL QBs came After the 10th pick. Drafting well and getting a very good QB at one of our picks makes for better team building. Plus who is to say that this team's first choice at QB will the same as everyone elses?
The Hawks played good enough on Monday night to beat 2/3 of the league. It took defensive tenacity, which we all love...
Even with similar efforts, expecting game changing turnovers in such crucial situations is more hopeful than reasonable.
If an Over/Under for our win total were at 7.5, I bet the over because 8 or 9 wins looks more probable than 6 or 7 and way more likely than 5 or fewer.
Once again Kenneth. Thank you for reminding the Seaside Joe community that as good as early pick QBs can be, they are still a risk AND that many worthy starters have lead their teams from less lofty draft positions.
I strongly agree with your point that most franchise QB are high draft picks. That is supported by data as you pointed out.
2. Non-high picks. Outside of Lamar on that list, I don’t see them as being franchise quarterbacks that can win a Super Bowl in their second contract when the team’s talent will be curtailed due to their large salaries.
3. Lose to win: Some people like to believe that Schneider has eyes for franchise QBs. If that’s true, I would want him to get the first pick to prevent other losers who just randomly walk into a great QB because they’re in front of us.
4. Size: their heights maybe the same but their builds seem to be a lot different. Even Murray seems to be more thickly built than Young, and Murray has not played the entire seasons as of late.
The only problem with your analysis is we could be the schmucks who pick a Goff, a Wentz or a Murray with a top pick. Then maybe someone else gets a great QB behind us. Or some other team takes the guy we would have taken ahead of us and the result is that we get a better QB with a lower pick.
I agree with Ken's analysis. A higher pick gives a team a better shot at getting a great QB but it's nothing close to a guarantee. So much is involved, including blind luck.
You’re right that’s nothing is a guaranteed with the draft. It’s not groundbreaking findings there. I think that comes with the territory. IMO, it seems all random. Like stock picking, “good drafting” skill seems to be a myth to me.
Having said that, the limited data Ken posted and much larger data sample size done elesewhere showed franchise probowl QBs come out of top 10 picks. There’s always going to be outliers and exceptions.
If I’m going to sit here 8 months from the draft, suffer from mounting losses and dream about a franchise QB for my team, I don’t want to settle for anything but a perfect QB profile. Until we get close to draft, then I will make compromises for what’s actually available.
That’s why a strong, winning team is important. Bring in a QB that wins 3-4 additional games with late comebacks. Stack that on top of an 8+ win team. Have the QB push it over the top. Don’t make him carry the whole load.
This. This is exactly what needs to be said about drafting QBs. Being the first to take a QB doesn't make the guy you picked the best. Good talent evaluation, proper coaching and development, a good core around him, and some luck all contribute. As someone else pointed out, the hit rate on QBs picked in the first 3 rounds is something like 24%. It's terrible odds. Picking the right one is both a skill and a crapshoot.
Yeah great points and if I could re-write this article I would add that part about proper coach and a good core: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Russ, Brady...look at the teams they went to. Make a great team and then find a great QB. Lucky for Seattle that they have Pete and a winning philosophy.
Yep, no coincidence that good coaches produced good QBs. Allen is another really interesting one, a lot of us forget that the Bills made the playoffs (ending the longest drought at the time) before they drafted him. When they got him, they were also patient, not writing him off as I or some others did when he looked shaky to start out.
I THIS your this. Excellent comment on excellent article.
You are so right. Even though it was clear that John Elway was going to be superb, until he had a team around him, Denver continued to struggle.
I like to remind people that RW was Not an elite QB yet when the Hawks went to two Superbowls.
So many elite QBs have never been to the championship game. Ignoring the need to build a championship caliber squad is Not something I worry that JS/PC will do.
Oh yeah super agree. That's a Brett Kollman insight if I'm not mistaken. The number one factor as to whether or not a QB succeeds in the league is where he ends up. Can the team protect him and put him in a position to be successful? Moving to the NFL from college is a huge step up in speed and difficulty, and either you have enough support to learn the right habits and adapt or you develop bad habits trying to make magic without support. Geno definitely learned some bad habits playing for the Jets. Maybe he had had enough time to unlearn those. But yeah, definitely worried about Trevor Lawrence in JAX, for instance.
Makes for a good debate if Alex Smith & Aaron Rodgers picks were flipped.
Thanks for your insights, Kenneth. Couldn't agree more. In 1983, everyone said John Elway was the kind of QB who comes along once every 25 years. That was the consensus. Elway, it turns out, was pretty great. But not at the level predicted. Great stature but couldn't move much. Super strong arm but not great touch. Good enough to win a Superbowl (eventually) and for the Hall, but not better than Dan Marino, the fifth quarterback taken.
Thank you! What do you think would have happened if Marino had gone to the Broncos and Elway to the Dolphins? That one with Marino feels so much like Rodgers. Like there were so many people saying, "Wow this guy is so talented!" and somehow he still just drops like a stone in the first round. Divisive opinions but it's not as though there weren't a lot of people pounding the table for Marino.
I know. Impossible to predict. Elway was drafted by the Baltimore Colts. He had told Bob Irsay not to draft him, that he wouldn't play there. The Colts took him anyway, just before loading the moving vans in the middle of the night and sneaking out of Baltimore.
Would he have become anything playing for that dysfunctional organization? We'll never know.
Fortunately for Elway, he was also a baseball star. George Steinbrenner's Yankees took a flier on him in the baseball entry draft and tried to entice him to sign, promising they'd make him the next Joe DiMaggio.
When it became clear the Colts really stood to be stood up, they traded him to Denver.
My team back then, the NY Jets, took Ken O'Brien ahead of Marino. He was alright but would never get any consideration from anyone who casts a ballot for the Hall. But then, if Marino had played for the Jets, who would he have been?
Oh yes that's right, forgot about the Colts. I was just a few months old during that draft.
Marino on the Jets is quite a scenario.
I was in the Los Angeles area at that time. Being from Granada Hills, Elway dominated the headlines of the LA Times Sports Section. I was barely aware of Marino before he went to the Super Bowl. The Algorithm was different back then. Fewer narratives.
Thanks, Kenny. A hidden gem in this article: YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. I remember much of the 2010 end-of-season blogosphere was going nuts for the Seahawks to lose to the Rams, all because ten spots in the draft was so important. They don't win that game, there's no Beastquake a week later against the Saints. There's no Beastquake, a huge iconic moment of Seahawks football--perhaps THE iconic moment--doesn't exist.
That, and because of the win against the Rams Charlie Whitehurst can tell his grandkids he played in the NFL and led a team to the playoffs. Also FTR.
Thanks for writing so clearly. I believe I understand where you stand. I'm not opposed to taking two QB's next year unless Geno can play like he did in the first two quarters against the Denver Wilson's consistently for 4 quarters a game, and sometimes overtime. And Drew Lock could still develop. Everyone develops at their own speed. Lock could still become a reliable QB.
We’ll see how the QB prospects shake out but holy smoke the pressure to pick the right guy will be immense. Choose wisely and you’re a genius secure in your job. Choose poorly and you’re probably looking for a job.
Welcome to the NFL. If we screw it up, the rebuild continues and we try again two or three years later, when it's become clear the last guy didn't pan out. Or we find someone another way. There are teams in perpetual rebuild mode.
I’ve long thought that drafting Malik McDowell was close to a firing offense. Now I find that Schneider could have traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes…
Not trying to pick an argument here, I just think calling that pick a fireable offense is a bit over the top. The pick is actually very similar to a number of other picks they've made, some great some bad. DK Metcalf, Frank Clark, Christine Michael, and Darrel Taylor are the exact same kind of pick. High upside (should be a high first round pick based on talent), but fell to round 2 due to some issues such as health, off field struggles, or concern over character. Nobody could have predicted McDowell would never play a snap for the team, and any ruling on that pick is hindsight. DK was a similar risk that panned out. Same with Clark. While I too hate that the kid never played for us, I don't look at it as a guy they never should have taken from a purely procedural standpoint.
My thoughts, pretty much exactly. We have made some head scratching picks. That said, I say that with hindsight. A lot of people thought the Hawks wasted a pick when they took Wilson. That draft got panned by the critics. When we took Dickson, the Texan brain trust was laughing at us.
A lot of us see Collier as that kind of head scratcher but that's only because he hasn't panned out. Penny carried the same designation until he broke out late last season. If there's a legitimate gripe, it's that there's a really good chance either of those guys would have been there in a lower round. But then we missed on guys like Budda Baker and George Kittle because we didn't pick them sooner.
The draft is impossible to ace. Too much luck involved. I think Seattle does it as well (and as poorly) as anyone else.
The Penny pick never bothered me. The issue with Collier is that it seems to have been a panic move when Noah Fant wasn’t available.
Re hindsight, fair point. But performance has to be evaluated on some basis, and Schneider failed to develop a SB-contending roster after he reloaded in 2015-2016. His OL picks were largely bad, and he wouldn’t adjust by changing his approach to free agency. This left Russell protected by the likes of Bradley Sowell and J’Marcus Webb when he came close to tearing up his knee. I don’t blame him if he lost confidence in the team leadership. For me, the McDowell pick was the last straw.
McDowell’s red flags should have been disqualifying. BTW, Taylor has not shown much since the beginning of last season, and they traded up to get Metcalf.
I think that is a big stretch though, to say that McDowell's red flags were disqualifying. I remember that draft well, the biggest red flags on McDowell were his work ethic/motivation, and the fact he was a bit awkward in media interviews. That's it. Nowhere in his draft profile did it say "enjoys ATV rides without a helmet." That situation was unfortunate, but entirely unpredictable. In addition, players like Clark and Metcalf had way more red flags. Clark was charged with domestic violence (though the charge was reduced), and the GM took endless heat for that pick. Metcalf had potentially a career threatening neck injury and legitimate questions about his agility. None of these players would be available in the 2nd round without these red flags, that's why we were able to get them.
I'm not sure why you think it's relevant that they traded up for Metcalf, it is still the same type of pick (high risk, high upside in the 2nd round). I'd also disagree about Taylor showing little, he had 5.5 sacks after week 1...criticize him for his performance on Monday all you want, but he didn't show "little" last year. He was 4th among rookies* in sacks (*yes he was a 2nd year player, but it was his first year playing).
Agree with Starhawk29 and Joe. You don't often hit on first round picks when you match numbers drafted and success over the last 10 years. I've often wondered if guys with a bit of a chip on their shoulder tends to add to their ability to play in the NFL. Brady, Wilson. Grayson is listed at #13 in NFL draft buzz. He might well be a great pick for Seattle.
I'll be following another guy who is now the starter at UW as a possible late round or UDFA for Seattle next year. Michael Penix Jr. (ranked #55 draft buzz) He's had injuries over his 4 years with Indiana (transfer to UW this year). He is playing for his old OC/QB coach 2019 DeBoer hired 12/1/21 by UW as HC. He was HC for Fresno St the last two years and 12-6 last year.
Penix
From UW Fan Nation : He also finished 12-5 as the Hoosiers starter, earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2020, threw five touchdown passes at Ohio State, completed 20 consecutive passes against Michigan State and led Indiana to victories over Penn State, and Michigan State.
He's coming off a big games against Portland St and Kent St at UW. ( 682 yards 6 TD's 1 IINT 69.7 %) They play a familiar foe # 11th ranked Michigan St. this Saturday (WA #57). It will be interesting to see the outcome of that game. He's a lefty and throws a pretty good deep ball. He has some mobility (Knee/shoulder injuries past) and has nice size at 6'3" 210. He seems to do well under pressure and I saw him throw a 30 plus yard TD strike running to his right that was pretty impressive.
It will be interesting in watching him and the Huskies this year as such underdogs nationally and in the Pac 12. I'm not saying he is his caliber but he actually reminds me a bit of Ken Stabler with his touch and deep ball.
Still lying about being alone on McCall.
It is cool to have the draft capital to hijack the early part of our draft if deemed a necessity. However I just feel that other opportunities will be there at QB that will allow us to get a Game-wrecking inside pass rusher, a Primo WR and a Big upgrade to the middle of our O-line with those other pics if we do not trade up.
As you have shown, close to half of today's starting NFL QBs came After the 10th pick. Drafting well and getting a very good QB at one of our picks makes for better team building. Plus who is to say that this team's first choice at QB will the same as everyone elses?
The Hawks played good enough on Monday night to beat 2/3 of the league. It took defensive tenacity, which we all love...
Even with similar efforts, expecting game changing turnovers in such crucial situations is more hopeful than reasonable.
If an Over/Under for our win total were at 7.5, I bet the over because 8 or 9 wins looks more probable than 6 or 7 and way more likely than 5 or fewer.
Once again Kenneth. Thank you for reminding the Seaside Joe community that as good as early pick QBs can be, they are still a risk AND that many worthy starters have lead their teams from less lofty draft positions.
That model would be good if it gives us a chance to win the Super Bowl year in year out.
1. High draft picks.
I strongly agree with your point that most franchise QB are high draft picks. That is supported by data as you pointed out.
2. Non-high picks. Outside of Lamar on that list, I don’t see them as being franchise quarterbacks that can win a Super Bowl in their second contract when the team’s talent will be curtailed due to their large salaries.
3. Lose to win: Some people like to believe that Schneider has eyes for franchise QBs. If that’s true, I would want him to get the first pick to prevent other losers who just randomly walk into a great QB because they’re in front of us.
4. Size: their heights maybe the same but their builds seem to be a lot different. Even Murray seems to be more thickly built than Young, and Murray has not played the entire seasons as of late.
The only problem with your analysis is we could be the schmucks who pick a Goff, a Wentz or a Murray with a top pick. Then maybe someone else gets a great QB behind us. Or some other team takes the guy we would have taken ahead of us and the result is that we get a better QB with a lower pick.
I agree with Ken's analysis. A higher pick gives a team a better shot at getting a great QB but it's nothing close to a guarantee. So much is involved, including blind luck.
You’re right that’s nothing is a guaranteed with the draft. It’s not groundbreaking findings there. I think that comes with the territory. IMO, it seems all random. Like stock picking, “good drafting” skill seems to be a myth to me.
Having said that, the limited data Ken posted and much larger data sample size done elesewhere showed franchise probowl QBs come out of top 10 picks. There’s always going to be outliers and exceptions.
If I’m going to sit here 8 months from the draft, suffer from mounting losses and dream about a franchise QB for my team, I don’t want to settle for anything but a perfect QB profile. Until we get close to draft, then I will make compromises for what’s actually available.
That’s why a strong, winning team is important. Bring in a QB that wins 3-4 additional games with late comebacks. Stack that on top of an 8+ win team. Have the QB push it over the top. Don’t make him carry the whole load.