This. This is exactly what needs to be said about drafting QBs. Being the first to take a QB doesn't make the guy you picked the best. Good talent evaluation, proper coaching and development, a good core around him, and some luck all contribute. As someone else pointed out, the hit rate on QBs picked in the first 3 rounds is something like 24%. It's terrible odds. Picking the right one is both a skill and a crapshoot.
Thanks for your insights, Kenneth. Couldn't agree more. In 1983, everyone said John Elway was the kind of QB who comes along once every 25 years. That was the consensus. Elway, it turns out, was pretty great. But not at the level predicted. Great stature but couldn't move much. Super strong arm but not great touch. Good enough to win a Superbowl (eventually) and for the Hall, but not better than Dan Marino, the fifth quarterback taken.
Thanks, Kenny. A hidden gem in this article: YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. I remember much of the 2010 end-of-season blogosphere was going nuts for the Seahawks to lose to the Rams, all because ten spots in the draft was so important. They don't win that game, there's no Beastquake a week later against the Saints. There's no Beastquake, a huge iconic moment of Seahawks football--perhaps THE iconic moment--doesn't exist.
That, and because of the win against the Rams Charlie Whitehurst can tell his grandkids he played in the NFL and led a team to the playoffs. Also FTR.
Thanks for writing so clearly. I believe I understand where you stand. I'm not opposed to taking two QB's next year unless Geno can play like he did in the first two quarters against the Denver Wilson's consistently for 4 quarters a game, and sometimes overtime. And Drew Lock could still develop. Everyone develops at their own speed. Lock could still become a reliable QB.
We’ll see how the QB prospects shake out but holy smoke the pressure to pick the right guy will be immense. Choose wisely and you’re a genius secure in your job. Choose poorly and you’re probably looking for a job.
Agree with Starhawk29 and Joe. You don't often hit on first round picks when you match numbers drafted and success over the last 10 years. I've often wondered if guys with a bit of a chip on their shoulder tends to add to their ability to play in the NFL. Brady, Wilson. Grayson is listed at #13 in NFL draft buzz. He might well be a great pick for Seattle.
I'll be following another guy who is now the starter at UW as a possible late round or UDFA for Seattle next year. Michael Penix Jr. (ranked #55 draft buzz) He's had injuries over his 4 years with Indiana (transfer to UW this year). He is playing for his old OC/QB coach 2019 DeBoer hired 12/1/21 by UW as HC. He was HC for Fresno St the last two years and 12-6 last year.
Penix
From UW Fan Nation : He also finished 12-5 as the Hoosiers starter, earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2020, threw five touchdown passes at Ohio State, completed 20 consecutive passes against Michigan State and led Indiana to victories over Penn State, and Michigan State.
He's coming off a big games against Portland St and Kent St at UW. ( 682 yards 6 TD's 1 IINT 69.7 %) They play a familiar foe # 11th ranked Michigan St. this Saturday (WA #57). It will be interesting to see the outcome of that game. He's a lefty and throws a pretty good deep ball. He has some mobility (Knee/shoulder injuries past) and has nice size at 6'3" 210. He seems to do well under pressure and I saw him throw a 30 plus yard TD strike running to his right that was pretty impressive.
It will be interesting in watching him and the Huskies this year as such underdogs nationally and in the Pac 12. I'm not saying he is his caliber but he actually reminds me a bit of Ken Stabler with his touch and deep ball.
It is cool to have the draft capital to hijack the early part of our draft if deemed a necessity. However I just feel that other opportunities will be there at QB that will allow us to get a Game-wrecking inside pass rusher, a Primo WR and a Big upgrade to the middle of our O-line with those other pics if we do not trade up.
As you have shown, close to half of today's starting NFL QBs came After the 10th pick. Drafting well and getting a very good QB at one of our picks makes for better team building. Plus who is to say that this team's first choice at QB will the same as everyone elses?
The Hawks played good enough on Monday night to beat 2/3 of the league. It took defensive tenacity, which we all love...
Even with similar efforts, expecting game changing turnovers in such crucial situations is more hopeful than reasonable.
If an Over/Under for our win total were at 7.5, I bet the over because 8 or 9 wins looks more probable than 6 or 7 and way more likely than 5 or fewer.
Once again Kenneth. Thank you for reminding the Seaside Joe community that as good as early pick QBs can be, they are still a risk AND that many worthy starters have lead their teams from less lofty draft positions.
I strongly agree with your point that most franchise QB are high draft picks. That is supported by data as you pointed out.
2. Non-high picks. Outside of Lamar on that list, I don’t see them as being franchise quarterbacks that can win a Super Bowl in their second contract when the team’s talent will be curtailed due to their large salaries.
3. Lose to win: Some people like to believe that Schneider has eyes for franchise QBs. If that’s true, I would want him to get the first pick to prevent other losers who just randomly walk into a great QB because they’re in front of us.
4. Size: their heights maybe the same but their builds seem to be a lot different. Even Murray seems to be more thickly built than Young, and Murray has not played the entire seasons as of late.
This. This is exactly what needs to be said about drafting QBs. Being the first to take a QB doesn't make the guy you picked the best. Good talent evaluation, proper coaching and development, a good core around him, and some luck all contribute. As someone else pointed out, the hit rate on QBs picked in the first 3 rounds is something like 24%. It's terrible odds. Picking the right one is both a skill and a crapshoot.
Thanks for your insights, Kenneth. Couldn't agree more. In 1983, everyone said John Elway was the kind of QB who comes along once every 25 years. That was the consensus. Elway, it turns out, was pretty great. But not at the level predicted. Great stature but couldn't move much. Super strong arm but not great touch. Good enough to win a Superbowl (eventually) and for the Hall, but not better than Dan Marino, the fifth quarterback taken.
Thanks, Kenny. A hidden gem in this article: YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. I remember much of the 2010 end-of-season blogosphere was going nuts for the Seahawks to lose to the Rams, all because ten spots in the draft was so important. They don't win that game, there's no Beastquake a week later against the Saints. There's no Beastquake, a huge iconic moment of Seahawks football--perhaps THE iconic moment--doesn't exist.
That, and because of the win against the Rams Charlie Whitehurst can tell his grandkids he played in the NFL and led a team to the playoffs. Also FTR.
Thanks for writing so clearly. I believe I understand where you stand. I'm not opposed to taking two QB's next year unless Geno can play like he did in the first two quarters against the Denver Wilson's consistently for 4 quarters a game, and sometimes overtime. And Drew Lock could still develop. Everyone develops at their own speed. Lock could still become a reliable QB.
We’ll see how the QB prospects shake out but holy smoke the pressure to pick the right guy will be immense. Choose wisely and you’re a genius secure in your job. Choose poorly and you’re probably looking for a job.
I’ve long thought that drafting Malik McDowell was close to a firing offense. Now I find that Schneider could have traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes…
Agree with Starhawk29 and Joe. You don't often hit on first round picks when you match numbers drafted and success over the last 10 years. I've often wondered if guys with a bit of a chip on their shoulder tends to add to their ability to play in the NFL. Brady, Wilson. Grayson is listed at #13 in NFL draft buzz. He might well be a great pick for Seattle.
I'll be following another guy who is now the starter at UW as a possible late round or UDFA for Seattle next year. Michael Penix Jr. (ranked #55 draft buzz) He's had injuries over his 4 years with Indiana (transfer to UW this year). He is playing for his old OC/QB coach 2019 DeBoer hired 12/1/21 by UW as HC. He was HC for Fresno St the last two years and 12-6 last year.
Penix
From UW Fan Nation : He also finished 12-5 as the Hoosiers starter, earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2020, threw five touchdown passes at Ohio State, completed 20 consecutive passes against Michigan State and led Indiana to victories over Penn State, and Michigan State.
He's coming off a big games against Portland St and Kent St at UW. ( 682 yards 6 TD's 1 IINT 69.7 %) They play a familiar foe # 11th ranked Michigan St. this Saturday (WA #57). It will be interesting to see the outcome of that game. He's a lefty and throws a pretty good deep ball. He has some mobility (Knee/shoulder injuries past) and has nice size at 6'3" 210. He seems to do well under pressure and I saw him throw a 30 plus yard TD strike running to his right that was pretty impressive.
It will be interesting in watching him and the Huskies this year as such underdogs nationally and in the Pac 12. I'm not saying he is his caliber but he actually reminds me a bit of Ken Stabler with his touch and deep ball.
Still lying about being alone on McCall.
It is cool to have the draft capital to hijack the early part of our draft if deemed a necessity. However I just feel that other opportunities will be there at QB that will allow us to get a Game-wrecking inside pass rusher, a Primo WR and a Big upgrade to the middle of our O-line with those other pics if we do not trade up.
As you have shown, close to half of today's starting NFL QBs came After the 10th pick. Drafting well and getting a very good QB at one of our picks makes for better team building. Plus who is to say that this team's first choice at QB will the same as everyone elses?
The Hawks played good enough on Monday night to beat 2/3 of the league. It took defensive tenacity, which we all love...
Even with similar efforts, expecting game changing turnovers in such crucial situations is more hopeful than reasonable.
If an Over/Under for our win total were at 7.5, I bet the over because 8 or 9 wins looks more probable than 6 or 7 and way more likely than 5 or fewer.
Once again Kenneth. Thank you for reminding the Seaside Joe community that as good as early pick QBs can be, they are still a risk AND that many worthy starters have lead their teams from less lofty draft positions.
That model would be good if it gives us a chance to win the Super Bowl year in year out.
1. High draft picks.
I strongly agree with your point that most franchise QB are high draft picks. That is supported by data as you pointed out.
2. Non-high picks. Outside of Lamar on that list, I don’t see them as being franchise quarterbacks that can win a Super Bowl in their second contract when the team’s talent will be curtailed due to their large salaries.
3. Lose to win: Some people like to believe that Schneider has eyes for franchise QBs. If that’s true, I would want him to get the first pick to prevent other losers who just randomly walk into a great QB because they’re in front of us.
4. Size: their heights maybe the same but their builds seem to be a lot different. Even Murray seems to be more thickly built than Young, and Murray has not played the entire seasons as of late.