What it's REALLY LIKE to draft a 1st round QB
Seaside Joe 1126: I'm the bad guy
I’ve come up with a few different “themes” for 2022 already. The first was that this is “The Year of the Tank” as I suspect a number of teams are in a race to the bottom, having witnessed the quick turnaround of the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The 2023 draft offers multiple potential “Burrows” to start digging for.
The next was that the theme of the Seahawks’ season could be “Team-First.” I’ve recognized a hint of desperation on the part of Seattleites and the quarterback position, but acceptance of reality can only lead to one conclusion for the state of the franchise: time to build around the quarterback position first. A good team needs to be good at all positions, on all active game day roster spots, on the entire 53, on the practice squad, and going into training camp. The Seahawks have many holes to fill on the 90-man roster.
The latest theme then is the one for Seaside Joe himself and that’s me embracing my role as the villain in the Seahawks online universe. Yes, I’m the the bad guy.
I’m never going to write something because I believe it’s what Seahawks fans want to hear. I’m never going to write something because I think it’ll make readers like me more. I’m never going to write something only because it’s what I want to happen. Many of my opinions and predictions have gone directly against mainstream narratives and been hugely unpopular. Sometimes I am proven wrong.
Other times, enough for me to continue doing this for 20 years, I am proven right.
Unfortunately, being proven right for unpopular opinions doesn’t bring you more popularity. If anything, maybe it just leads to a greater shunning than previous shuns. So what else is Seaside Joe left to do, if not give in and start telling fans simply what they want to hear? Embrace that I’m the bad guy.
I deal in absolutes. I deal in reality, which is never as exciting as the fantasies we create for ourselves and for the things we love.
No, Matt Ryan doesn’t make sense. No, Colin Kaepernick isn’t a smart pick over the many quarterbacks who are more qualified to run an offense in 2022. No, the Seahawks are not a good team right now. No, Pete and John are not going to draft a quarterback in the first round. No, this quarterback class probably won’t produce a long-term starter for any franchise.
Sorry, but that’s what you’re going to get here. Because I’m the no-fun mom who has to check your homework. I’m the accountant, telling you that you owe money. I’m the tow truck driver, and your car isn’t going anywhere today other than the shop.
I’m the bad guy. Get used to it.
The Seattle Seahawks are going to draft Malik Willis or Matt Corral? Give me a break. Swinging outside of the fact that the Seahawks drafting a quarterback in the first round this year makes absolutely no sense—to reality—let’s briefly (again) examine why drafting a quarterback in the first round is the most overrated NFL transaction of the 21st century.
WATCH: My interview with former Seahawks draftee Kristjan Sokoli
The fantasy in your head runs away with the notion that if Team A drafts Quarterback A, that in 2 years he could be Patrick Mahomes or in 3 years he could be Josh Allen.
The reality is that from 2009-2018, a period of 10 classes, there were 30 first round quarterbacks selected. Out of 30: 23 failed to make it to the end of their fifth season with the team that drafted him, 11 failed to make it to their fourth season, and the only one to start and win a Super Bowl with his original team is Mahomes.
You want the Seahawks to draft Willis… and then what happens? Because the only possible Malik Willis-to-Seattle outcome you will read about from “the good guys” is that the Seahawks draft him, he reaches this supposed and enigmatic “ceiling” and at worst, “Pete Carroll ruins him.”
Okay, so we’re not even going to entertain the Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Paxton Lynch, or Josh Rosen outcomes? We’ll ignore the Mark Sanchez, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, RGIII, Brandon Weeden, Sam Darnold outcomes? We’ll gloss over the Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, E.J. Manuel, Teddy Bridgwater, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins possibilities?
I’m sorry to be the bad guy, but when more than 80-percent of a sample size falls into roughly the same category, whether that reality is palatable to you or not, I tend to side with what’s probable.
What’s probable with first round quarterbacks is that as BADLY as you want your favorite team to have one now, you will almost always end up regretting that wish to pick a QB in three to five years.
And instead of taking responsibility for being wrong, push the blame on me for saying it would happen. The bad guy.
Here is every first round QB from 2009-2019.
I’ve also include the “Team Situation” which is the win-loss record for the team the year before they made the draft pick. I think it’s important that with Mahomes and Allen, for example, we differentiate how integral it was that they had quality head coaches and a great support system. The Seahawks may have a quality head coach (though many of those pining for Willis haven’t had nice things to say about Carroll lately), but they need a much better support system.
2009
1-Matthew Stafford, Lions
Team situation: 0-16
Outcome: 12 seasons, 0 playoff wins (couldn’t support Stafford), 1 Super Bowl with Rams
5-Mark Sanchez, Jets
Team situation: 9-7
Outcome: 4 seasons with Jets, 11 more starts after Jets
17-Josh Freeman, Bucs
Team situation: 9-7 (but fired Jon Gruden)
Outcome: 4.25 seasons with Bucs, 2 starts after Bucs
2010
1-Sam Bradford, Rams
Team situation: 1-15
Outcome: 4 seasons with Rams, 34 starts after Rams
25-Tim Tebow, Gators
Team situation: 8-8
Outcome: 2 seasons with Broncos, 1 season with Jets
2011
1-Cam Newton, Panthers
Team situation: 2-14
Outcome: 9 seasons with Panthers, one Super Bowl appearance, 20 starts after cut by Carolina
7-Jake Locker, Titans
Team situation: 6-10
Outcome: 4 seasons with Titans
10-Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
Team situation: 8-8
Outcome: 3 seasons with Jaguars, 21 starts after Jags
12-Christian Ponder, Vikings
Team situation: 6-10 (but fired Brad Childress)
Outcome: 4 seasons with Vikings
2012
1-Andrew Luck, Colts
Team situation: 2-14
Outcome: 6 seasons with Colts
2-Robert Griffin III, WFT
Team situation: 5-11
Outcome: 3 seasons with WFT, 7 starts after
8-Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Team situation: 6-10
Outcome: 6 seasons with Dolphins, 43 starts with Titans after
22-Brandon Weeden, Browns
Team situation: 4-12
Outcome: 2 seasons with Browns, 5 starts after
2013
16-E.J. Manuel, Bills
Team situation: 6-10
Outcome: 4 “seasons” with Bills, 1 start after
2014
3-Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Team situation: 4-12
Outcome: 5 seasons with Jags, 0 starts after
22-Johnny Manziel
Team situation: 4-12
Outcome: 2 seasons with Browns, 0 teams after
32-Teddy Bridgewater
Team situation: 5-10-1
Outcome: 3 seasons with Vikings, 35 starts after
2015
1-Jameis Winston, Bucs
Team situation: 2-14
Outcome: 5 years with Bucs, 7 starts after
2-Marcus Mariota, Titans
Team situation: 2-14
Outcome: 5 seasons with Titans, 0 starts after*
2016
1-Jared Goff, Rams
Team situation: 7-9
Outcome: 5 seasons with Rams, 14 starts with Lions
2-Carson Wentz, Eagles
Team situation: 7-9
Outcome: 5 seasons with Eagles, 17 starts with Colts
26-Paxton Lynch, Broncos
Team situation: 12-4
Outcome: 2 seasons with Broncos, 0 after
2017
2-Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
Team situation: 3-13
Outcome: 4 seasons with Bears, 0 starts after*
10-Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Team situation: 12-4
Outcome: 5 seasons with Chiefs
12-Deshaun Watson, Texans
Team situation: 9-7
Outcome: 5 seasons with Texans, starting over with Browns*
2018
1-Baker Mayfield, Browns
Team situation: 0-16
Outcome: 4 seasons with Browns, 0 starts after?
3-Sam Darnold, Jets
Team situation: 5-11
Outcome: 3 seasons with Jets, 11 starts with Panthers
7-Josh Allen, Bills
Team situation: 9-7
Outcome: 4 seasons with Bills
10-Josh Rosen, Cardinals
Team situation: 8-8 (parted with Bruce Arians)
Outcome: 1 season with Cards, 3 starts after
32-Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Team situation: 9-7
Outcome: 4 seasons with Ravens
2019
1-Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Team situation: 3-13
Outcome: 3 seasons with Cards
6-Daniel Jones, Giants
Team situation: 5-11
Outcome: 3 seasons with Giants
15-Dwayne Haskins, WFT
Team situation: 7-9
Outcome: 2 seasons with WFT, 0 starts after
2020
1-Joe Burrow, Bengals
Team situation: 2-14
5-Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Team situation: 5-11
6-Justin Herbert, Chargers
Team situation: 5-11
26-Jordan Love, Packers
Team situation: 13-3
And finally…
Looking at the more recent quarterback classes, as obsession with the position has exploded for fans online who are overwhelmed with “draft boredom” if the conversation doesn’t center around the quarterbacks, Mayfield will soon join Darnold and Rosen as a “former member” of his team, while Jackson is surrounded by his own trade rumors; from 2019, Murray is holding Arizona’s feet over the fire for more money after only three seasons and zero playoff wins, while Jones is only surviving as New York’s quarterback by default right now; and in 2020, Tua is on the brink of being benched (again) and Love is worth virtually nothing on the trade market.
We can only guess the sophomore campaigns of Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones, but brace for there to be even more uncertainty a year from now with regards to the QB class of 2022; we know for a fact that as prospects go, this class is miles behind the group from 2021. There’s absolutely no consensus on who the top QB of 2022 is (some say Willis, others say Matt Corral, others say Desmond Ridder, others say Sam Howell, and others say Kenny Pickett) and given that nobody wants to give any of them a first round grade, the end result is that this group does more to resemble 2013 and 2014 than 2018 and 2020…
And even 2020 looks to have a 50/50 on getting a good player or wasting a high draft pick.
No, I didn’t tell you what you may have wanted to hear. My bad.
The preponderance of Seaside Joe readers agree that it would be wrong for the Seahawks to draft a quarterback with the first pick. It would also be wrong if they didn't draft a QB somewhere. I believe the Seahawks look at Drew Lock as a rookie QB all be it one on a second chance. Geno Smith is holding out for a better contract than league min. I would suggest to Geno sign before the draft. Geno is a millionaire with out ever playing football, so this is for the love of the game. I really don't see why anybody would want to waiste a 1st round pick on a QB. At nine there are franchise cornerstones just not at QB. Victoria Chris
Soooooo? Does "all of the above" mean that the Seahawks 'front office and head coach' are backing away from their original plans for "this year?" Look it up.