Wills & Won'ts: 6 Seahawks draft proclamations

Trading the pick, priority positions, and why Pete Carroll's track record should hold the most weight

The Seahawks will trade down

It’s probably Plan A because as I wrote on Sunday Seattle should expect Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Icky Ekwonu, and the rest of their highly-ranked OTs and OLBs to be picked within the top-eight. Also because the Seahawks tend to trust the middle of a draft more than they do the first round and this draft class seems to be setup like a Russian nesting doll: fat in the middle, thin up top, and full of surprises.

Since 2018, John Schneider has made three trades with the Steelers, three with the Jets, and three with the Packers—the most of any franchises—and right now we can expect Pittsburgh and Green Bay to be aggressive in moving up for the right players. In the Steelers case, that would be a quarterback. For the Packers, that would be a receiver. Two positions that I believe Seattle doesn’t need to pick early in this draft.

Reading: Seahawks might need to trade down before the Giants do

Which offer would you prefer?

Steelers offer: Pick 20, 84, 2023 second round pick

Chiefs offer: Pick 29, 94, 2023 first round pick

The Seahawks will pick an edge rusher as soon as they can

My blunt commentary on Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson, and Uchenna Nwosu as the team’s outside linebackers was “This ain’t it.”

Without taking anything away from the potential that group has, the Seahawks lack proven playmakers and elite prospects at one of the game’s three most-important positions. Seattle’s leaders in sacks that will return next year are Taylor at 6.5 sacks, Poona Ford at two sacks, and Al Woods/Bryan Mone with 1.5 sacks each.

You can blame the scheme if you want to but I don’t recall having never ending conversations about the “scheme” that Chandler Jones or T.J. Watt have had to play in throughout their careers; great players produce regardless of scheme. Nobody can say if there’s a Jones or a Watt lurking in the 2022 NFL Draft but given that they were picked 21st and 30th overall respectively, it means that the Seahawks don’t necessarily have to have a top-three pick to find an elite edge rusher.

Seattle WILL pick an outside linebacker (but not a Will) between 9 and 50 in this year’s draft.

The Seahawks will pick a TACKLE (not a guard) early

If the Seahawks are looking at the board at pick nine and Alabama’s Evan Neal is available—but Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker aren’t—then I’d say there’s a good chance they elect to stay at nine and turn in the card for him.

Pete Carroll probably wants to come out of the first two days of the draft with these two positions locked in: Offensive tackle and an edge rusher at outside linebacker. Of the first three picks, two of those should be guaranteed to be those positions.

Reading: Seahawks should treat each of their first three picks like number one overall picks

That’s why I find it so hard to buy any mock draft that has the Seahawks picking a cornerback, quarterback, defensive tackle, guard, or center with their first selection. It’s not because I don’t respect the prospect. It’s because I respect the 12 years of history that Pete Carroll has given us to expect him to do what he does: trade down, pick Bernhard Raimann out of Central Michigan, and get a D+ from the graders.

If Seattle doesn’t select Neal, Raimann, or Trevor Penning in the first round, then I’d be shocked if Pete doesn’t take Raimann, Tyler Smith, Daniel Fallele, or Abe Lucas in the second round—if not a different tackle who I’ve overlooked through the process so far.

My gut of guts tells me that the Seahawks will trade down and pick Raimann. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Seattle moves down, selects an edge (George Karlaftis, Drake Jackson, Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie), and then trades up into the first round to secure Raimann.

The Seahawks are picking an offensive tackle in this draft as early as they can.

The Seahawks won’t pick a guard or a center that early

There are some reports that Evan Neal will end up as a right tackle, if not a guard in the NFL. I think Seattle can live with Neal as a right tackle (though I think that would officially make him a reach in the top-10) and they’d accept that his floor is a guard because he at least has the potential to be a left tackle.

I think Ekwonu’s playing style and run-blocking will appeal to Pete too, but he could be even more likely to end up as a guard in the NFL, making him an even bigger reach if that’s the case. Reading: What separates Ikem Ekwonu from other undersized offensive tackles

I don’t think that Charles Cross, Trevor Penning, or Raimann are going to be NFL guards, and that’s why I’d expect the Seahawks to favor them (especially the latter two) over Ekwonu.

But ultimately I just can’t endorse the idea that Seattle should use their highest pick since 2010 to reinforce an interior offensive line position. Especially given that they have three starters on the inside in 2022 but zero starters bookending them at tackle. The Seahawks will sign a veteran tackle eventually, and they’ll also need to draft someone to start opposite of him. Picking Tyler Linderbaum, Zion Johnson, or Kenyon Green in the top-50 selections when the team has major holes on the roster at nearly every key position is illogical.

Reading: Tyler Linderbaum’s exceptional pro day

The Seahawks won’t trade up

I actually believe that of all years, this might be the year to do it. Unfortunately, the Seahawks find themselves in what could be the most awkward position in the draft at 9: Potentially too late for one of the premium OT or EDGE prospects, but too early to take some of the other players who are likely high on their board—such as Raimann.

Consider this thought for a moment: If you think that Russell Wilson makes the Broncos Super Bowl contenders, then you can think of Denver’s 2023 first round pick as ~30th overall. Would it be better to have Jermaine Johnson and the 30th pick in next year’s draft or Aidan Hutchinson and only your original first round pick in 2023?

The Jaguars and Lions both reportedly want to trade down, as do the Texans, so the Seahawks could probably secure their top-ranked pass rusher if they will sacrifice future draft capital. Of course, the big concern there for most fans will be that Seattle loosens their grip on drafting an elite QB prospect next year…

That’s valid. However, next year is not guaranteed. We also don’t know if that extra draft pick will be utilized to move up for a QB nor if it would even matter. What if the Seahawks have the worst record in the NFL anyway? What if a team ahead of Seattle moves up for the QB? And why can’t the Seahawks just trade other picks (like a 2024/2025 first rounder or their multiple selections in the second round next year) if it becomes so vital to move up for a QB?

There’s always a way—so should the Seahawks consider sacrificing any future capital if it means they get Hutchinson instead of a project who has a lower probability of becoming a great NFL player? This is a tough one to answer, let me know what you think:

Still, will Seattle trade up? No, regardless of what we could argue, that’s so un-Pete.

The Seahawks will draft a CB higher than they ever have under Pete

Here’s one way in which Seattle’s 2022 draft will deviate from the past 12: the need, the draft class, and the board is setting up perfectly for the Seahawks to draft a cornerback in the first, second, or third round.

The Seahawks currently have picks 9, 40, 41, and 72 in the first two days. As I noted, Seattle will probably trade down from 9 and I’ve said that they’ll likely trade down from 41, if they get the chance.

Here’s a scenario: Seahawks have 9, 40, 41, and 72 now

After trades with Steelers, Packers: Seahawks have picks 20, 40, 53, 72, 84 (and future capital gained)

Seattle picks Karlaftis at 20, Raimann at 40, and the board is their oyster after that point. The Seahawks would have three more picks left on day two, and their roster SCREAMS to draft a cornerback with one of those selections. Is that where Tariq Woolen, Cam Taylor-Britt, Zyon McCollum, or Tariq Castro-Fields fits in? Or would the Seahawks consider Kaiir Elam at 40 (if not 20, Elam is moving up the boards), then Arnold Ebiketie, then Abraham Lucas?

Reading: Every CB in this draft, sorted by arm length

All I know is that Shaquill Griffin is the highest-drafted CB in Pete-Hawks history (90th overall) and with four selections higher than that right now, one of the picks has to be a cornerback.