The stay at 16 vs. trade down decision is somewhat predicated on differing team building philosophies. Do you want one or two “A” caliber players surrounded by a bunch of “C” caliber players or do you want a whole team of “B” quality players. I know that’s an oversimplification, but the salary cap and draft make it impossible to have all “A” types. I’m sure there have been SB winners of both types over the years. In the last two I truly thought Philadelphia and San Francisco were the better complete teams, but neither could overcome the Mahomes/Kelce combo.
Of course the best bet is having plenty of “A” types, but getting them by great drafting in later rounds, surrounded by plenty of”B”s. PC/JS pulled that off once, but haven’t repeated it in essentially 10 years. Based on that record, my humble opinion is to stick at 16 and get a true blue chip talent. Don’t fret the lack of a 2nd rounder because that’s Leonard Williams who is probably better than whoever they might get there. Plus Howell is a relatively cheap, high upside young QB, so fortify the lines first. Neither line was particularly good last year so I don’t care which comes first, but work on both in the draft.
Been saying for years that PC under utilized/valued TEs and Centers. Never understood why because good TEs can wreck havoc and OC touches ball on every play.
The first couple of paragraphs are so wonderfully random that I need to sing loudly the praises of Seaside Joe. In this time of stale and well-trod NFL news ruts, Kenneth forges his own path. To quote John Lennon...In this way Mr. K. will challenge the world! Keep em coming.
Hi Joe. I don't think I've seen you touch on this, but have you given any thought of the 16th pick for a second and a first in next year's draft? The standard opinion I've read in the past is that a future pick is equivalent to one round down, i.e.: a Green Bay 2025 first round pick would be worth the equivalent of a mid (to late)- second this year? Is the 16th a position where you get could a 2025 first in the (projected) 20s and a second this year? Is it a solid starting point for a trade at least? With that, you're pushing a first round salary to next year when the Hawks should have more room and replacing it with a cheaper alternative now.
By the way, I dig your writing, thanks for putting in the effort so I can read it.
I’m worried, … about me. The draft discussions have been interesting to a degree, but it is fast becoming wearying. It’s like churning the oatmeal in search of the last few raisins.
I’m not saying you’ve come to the end of the subject but the prospect of three more weeks of this stuff is as appealing as cottage cheese and carrot sticks. Consider a step away once or twice a week to throw in something with a little more flavor for saps like me. Here’s a potential topic: who did better in their rookie season, Jalen Carter or Witherspoon? In the world of walk-ons (UDFA?) where does Jake Bobo stand?
This is no knock on you, and probably most everyone else is eating this stuff up but for lightweights like me, we could use a plate of ham, eggs and hash browns once in a while to break up the deep dive.
Regarding the quesion: "For fans who think he should be traded: If the Seahawks could trade DK Metcalf for a 2025 second round pick, is that good enough value?"....
I say, "no". And, also since we aren't going to get anything better than that to offest the cap hit we would absorb for trading him, then we keep him.
I had a first instinct that my vote to "fix the trenches" was in response to our craptastic run defense, and was a defensive trench answer. But, I have come around to the possibility of getting better on BOTH sides of the ball simultaneously with MikeMac's scheme and a few key value additions to go along with targeting OL in the draft to fix that trench. I have to admit that I have a man crush on Payton Wilson and think he would be great calling our defense (our Roquan Smith), and maybe slide in to starting if we don't resign Baker. I just don't want to spend #16 on him. He IS a possible trade-down guy though.
I know that the standard take is guards don’t go in the first round based on value. It is passing league and IOL and running backs that were once valuable are just not as valuable. But I can’t help but wonder about guards. The passing game is becoming quicker and quicker making it more difficult for edge rushers to get pressure. Also the quarterbacks are more mobile than ever rush blindly and miss or just leave a gap and the are 15 yards down the field before stepping out of bounds. The result is the new game wreckers are defensive tackles that destroy the play even when they don’t make a shack. If Defensive tackles are the new game wreckers then the value of the guards that can keep them in check may well go up. It is too early to tell but if the new defensive weapon is a game wrecking defensive tackle then offenses are going to need a counter or Kansas City is just going to keep winning. By the way in 2021 after getting man handled by the Tampas defensive tackles, Kansas City signed a New England’s left guard Joe Thuney to a ridiculous 80 million dollar five year contract. That is a 15 million dollar per year average and the fifth highest salary in the NFL for offensive lineman with a higher yearly average than a tight end currently dating a pop singer. (He was an all pro last year with 99% win rate). Maybe Andy Reed knows something the rest of the league is just learning.
I think moving down and getting a premium return for the pick can happen if things play out and the last OT or WR with a first round grade is left when Seattle is set to pick at 16
I like the idea of seeing how the run on OT and WR play out in the draft. It is possible that only 1 premium OT is left at 16 and the eagles at 22 are desperate to get that player. We can get 1-22 and 2-50 from the eagles. This is roughly the eagles paying a 20% premium. Much less than selling the number one or four pick in round 1 for a QB, but still this would increase Seattle's overall draft capital 10%.
Now at 22, have all 4 WRs gone? if one is left, Buffalo is in dire need of a WR without Diggs, they take our new 1-22 pick from the eagles, we get 1-28 and 2-60 from Buffalo. This an another premium Seattle is getting for the pick.
In the end Seattle drops from 16 to 22 to 28 in the first round. They wind up with 9 picks overall including 2 second rounders where there once were none.
I’m with the SSJ readers, focus first on the O-line. After trade downs Seattle could get two of these three guys: Graham Barton, Cooper Beebe and Christian Haynes. Those would be my first two picks.
The stay at 16 vs. trade down decision is somewhat predicated on differing team building philosophies. Do you want one or two “A” caliber players surrounded by a bunch of “C” caliber players or do you want a whole team of “B” quality players. I know that’s an oversimplification, but the salary cap and draft make it impossible to have all “A” types. I’m sure there have been SB winners of both types over the years. In the last two I truly thought Philadelphia and San Francisco were the better complete teams, but neither could overcome the Mahomes/Kelce combo.
Of course the best bet is having plenty of “A” types, but getting them by great drafting in later rounds, surrounded by plenty of”B”s. PC/JS pulled that off once, but haven’t repeated it in essentially 10 years. Based on that record, my humble opinion is to stick at 16 and get a true blue chip talent. Don’t fret the lack of a 2nd rounder because that’s Leonard Williams who is probably better than whoever they might get there. Plus Howell is a relatively cheap, high upside young QB, so fortify the lines first. Neither line was particularly good last year so I don’t care which comes first, but work on both in the draft.
Beating the drum to death~! They need to get a top notch Center to have a good O-line ! Period!
Been saying for years that PC under utilized/valued TEs and Centers. Never understood why because good TEs can wreck havoc and OC touches ball on every play.
The first couple of paragraphs are so wonderfully random that I need to sing loudly the praises of Seaside Joe. In this time of stale and well-trod NFL news ruts, Kenneth forges his own path. To quote John Lennon...In this way Mr. K. will challenge the world! Keep em coming.
Hi Joe. I don't think I've seen you touch on this, but have you given any thought of the 16th pick for a second and a first in next year's draft? The standard opinion I've read in the past is that a future pick is equivalent to one round down, i.e.: a Green Bay 2025 first round pick would be worth the equivalent of a mid (to late)- second this year? Is the 16th a position where you get could a 2025 first in the (projected) 20s and a second this year? Is it a solid starting point for a trade at least? With that, you're pushing a first round salary to next year when the Hawks should have more room and replacing it with a cheaper alternative now.
By the way, I dig your writing, thanks for putting in the effort so I can read it.
Revisiting the accuracy of these KenJoe predictions, I’ve become a Psycho Fant Sycophant - “when you’re right, KJ, you’re RIGHT!”
Good work, I was so impressed with your observations on Tyler’s contract re-work.
By contrast, my only suggestion was my emphatic exhortation to hurry and beat the rush to sign a coach who remains a-Vrabel-able!
I’m worried, … about me. The draft discussions have been interesting to a degree, but it is fast becoming wearying. It’s like churning the oatmeal in search of the last few raisins.
I’m not saying you’ve come to the end of the subject but the prospect of three more weeks of this stuff is as appealing as cottage cheese and carrot sticks. Consider a step away once or twice a week to throw in something with a little more flavor for saps like me. Here’s a potential topic: who did better in their rookie season, Jalen Carter or Witherspoon? In the world of walk-ons (UDFA?) where does Jake Bobo stand?
This is no knock on you, and probably most everyone else is eating this stuff up but for lightweights like me, we could use a plate of ham, eggs and hash browns once in a while to break up the deep dive.
Sorry to be a whiner.
Regarding the quesion: "For fans who think he should be traded: If the Seahawks could trade DK Metcalf for a 2025 second round pick, is that good enough value?"....
I say, "no". And, also since we aren't going to get anything better than that to offest the cap hit we would absorb for trading him, then we keep him.
I had a first instinct that my vote to "fix the trenches" was in response to our craptastic run defense, and was a defensive trench answer. But, I have come around to the possibility of getting better on BOTH sides of the ball simultaneously with MikeMac's scheme and a few key value additions to go along with targeting OL in the draft to fix that trench. I have to admit that I have a man crush on Payton Wilson and think he would be great calling our defense (our Roquan Smith), and maybe slide in to starting if we don't resign Baker. I just don't want to spend #16 on him. He IS a possible trade-down guy though.
No way!!! DK makes any team immediately better… ONLY A #1 for him!!! But, he is worth considering to trade based on his penalties last year…
I know that the standard take is guards don’t go in the first round based on value. It is passing league and IOL and running backs that were once valuable are just not as valuable. But I can’t help but wonder about guards. The passing game is becoming quicker and quicker making it more difficult for edge rushers to get pressure. Also the quarterbacks are more mobile than ever rush blindly and miss or just leave a gap and the are 15 yards down the field before stepping out of bounds. The result is the new game wreckers are defensive tackles that destroy the play even when they don’t make a shack. If Defensive tackles are the new game wreckers then the value of the guards that can keep them in check may well go up. It is too early to tell but if the new defensive weapon is a game wrecking defensive tackle then offenses are going to need a counter or Kansas City is just going to keep winning. By the way in 2021 after getting man handled by the Tampas defensive tackles, Kansas City signed a New England’s left guard Joe Thuney to a ridiculous 80 million dollar five year contract. That is a 15 million dollar per year average and the fifth highest salary in the NFL for offensive lineman with a higher yearly average than a tight end currently dating a pop singer. (He was an all pro last year with 99% win rate). Maybe Andy Reed knows something the rest of the league is just learning.
I think moving down and getting a premium return for the pick can happen if things play out and the last OT or WR with a first round grade is left when Seattle is set to pick at 16
I like the idea of seeing how the run on OT and WR play out in the draft. It is possible that only 1 premium OT is left at 16 and the eagles at 22 are desperate to get that player. We can get 1-22 and 2-50 from the eagles. This is roughly the eagles paying a 20% premium. Much less than selling the number one or four pick in round 1 for a QB, but still this would increase Seattle's overall draft capital 10%.
Now at 22, have all 4 WRs gone? if one is left, Buffalo is in dire need of a WR without Diggs, they take our new 1-22 pick from the eagles, we get 1-28 and 2-60 from Buffalo. This an another premium Seattle is getting for the pick.
In the end Seattle drops from 16 to 22 to 28 in the first round. They wind up with 9 picks overall including 2 second rounders where there once were none.
We can dream...
Designating the dollar as legal tender in 1862 also had the effect of devaluing Confederate money.
I’m with the SSJ readers, focus first on the O-line. After trade downs Seattle could get two of these three guys: Graham Barton, Cooper Beebe and Christian Haynes. Those would be my first two picks.