Seahawks draft: What we've learned so far

Salary cap, draft needs, Seahawks rumors, free agency review: Seaside Joe 1862

A few days ago I mentioned that the episode numbers remind me of years and on Saturday I wondered if there was any significance to 1862. It turns out that this was a momuntal time in U.S. currency as Congress passed the First Legal Tender Act in 1862, which authorized the circulation of U.S. notes and printed the first $450 million in “greenbacks” for the entire country to start using. Now $450 million can barely get you one Patrick Mahomes. It’s not even close to what you need for Shohei Ohtani.

Two interesting facts that I didn’t know until now: Money was made green because the color is less likely to fade and more importantly made it more difficult to create counterfeit bills back in 1862 because photographs were only black and white. I had never asked myself why money was green and I also never wondered what the dollar symbol is based on, which turns out to be based on the peso and a mushed up “U.S.” according to uscurrency.gov:

So thank you for the money, 1862 Congress.

The Seattle Seahawks have a budget that is more than half of what the entire United States had in 1862 and their spending habits to this point have put them right up against their limit. If I was a politics guy I guess I would make a joke about “the clowns in Washington” and being in debt or something but I am not a politics guy. I’ve known the history of the U.S. dollar symbol for all of about two minutes now. I have covered a lot in the last two months, so now seems like a good time to review and summarize the biggest draft talking points with less than three weeks until the first round.

Seahawks have money improvement opportunities

Two months ago, I wrote about Seattle’s salary cap and contract situations for the next two years. In that piece, I noted that trading DK Metcalf is a financial net loss, not a net gain.

Let’s pretend that the Seahawks receive an offer from the Chiefs, pick 31 or 32 for Metcalf, and decide to “reset the clock” at receiver. The rookie will get a $12 million contract with a $2.2 million cap hit in 2024, meaning that Seattle will still lose cap space if they trade Metcalf for any first round pick.

Since then, I went back more in-depth for a DK trade in my cap explainer for Mike Salk and this week I had to write why I feel Seattle probably couldn’t get the first round pick that people expect. In that article I said that a team could probably get Stefon Diggs for a third and then the Bills traded him to the Texans for pick swaps that essentially do amount to a third or a fourth when you do the math.

For fans who think he should be traded: If the Seahawks could trade DK Metcalf for a 2025 second round pick, is that good enough value?

Before free agency I reviewed the offense and defense: Offensively, I said that the Seahawks would probably lose Damien Lewis to a bigger offer in free agency (which they did) and that the team would cut Will Dissly. I also noted that even though Noah Fant might be the best free agent on the offense that he would only return to Seattle if he was given assurances that he’d be getting the ball more often. I wasn’t sure if that would happen, so I predicted that the team would re-sign Colby Parkinson, but the team let the Rams sign Parkinson and gave Fant a two-year contract. I believe that under-utilizing the tight ends has always been a Pete Carroll thing (will get to this at the end of the article today) and so we might actually see a breakout year for Fant.

Defensively, I wrote that nobody other than Devon Witherspoon was that important to me and said that Jordyn Brooks would leave in free agency and return a 2025 fourth round comp pick, which appears to be what Seattle will get. I wrote that Bobby Wagner should go chase a ring (instead he signed with the Moons). And my mistake was saying that the Seahawks have to let Leonard Williams test free agency (technically they did) and that a team would out-bid them but that’s not what happened. I also wrote about Deer Hunter director Michael Cimino and why the Seahawks should spend wisely.

This all led to my Seahawks free agency salary cap plan, to release Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Will Dissly, Bryan Mone, Nick Bellore (all were released), Dee Eskridge and Nick Bellore. Seattle didn’t release Eskridge, but did ask him to take a pay cut so it’s almost the same thing. Then after giving a list of reasons why Lockett could be cut, I wrote an amendment for Lockett, saying that maybe he will take a pay cut to stay too. 24 hours later, that’s what he did.

In my salary cap plan, I said I would prioritize Fant but that I didn’t expect them to and instead they agreed with me. I said I would get in Drew Lock for a two-year contract and it sounds like they tried but Lock feels he can beat Daniel Jones in New York. I wrote I’d give Lewis a three-year, $24 million contract and then he got way more than that from the over-spending Panthers. I added RFA contracts for Mike Jackson and Darrell Taylor, which is what Jackson got and basically what Taylor got. The oversight again was Leonard Williams, a player I kind of turned on because at the time of the trade I felt he would always be extended and then I lost some hope that would happen. It’s probably good that it happened, but it did reduce the free agency spending power I had predicted for Seattle in my article.

On the second-third day of free agency, the Seahawks signed Nick Harris, Pharoah Brown, Rayshawn Jenkins, and George Fant. I wrote about Fant right before free agency in a list of former Seattle players who would be free agents. But one of the reasons I don’t spend a lot of time writing about players who aren’t Seahawks is that most of them will never become Seahawks, like this list of 6 free agents on The Athletic’s top-150 list who could make sense for Seattle. I wrote about 4 free agents who I would prioritize and they might have all been good ideas but it didn’t work out. It doesn’t mean we stop trying: Last year, I did have Dre’Mont Jones on my list of sensible fits.

After a little bit of free agency, I wrote about what the Seahawks could be saving their remaining money for and one was keeping their own free agents: They did use some of it to re-sign Artie Burns, Mike Jackson, and Darrell Taylor. I also said they might be using some of it for trades and this is what I wrote:

As I wrote in February, teams would probably rather trade for Jake Browning, Sam Howell, or Mac Jones. Sure enough, Jones was traded before Fields. Mac Jones is more adaptable to different offenses around the league, while Fields is probably confined to playing for teams like the Eagles or Colts.

If the Seahawks trade for any QB and the Bengals were unwilling to move Browning, I would target Howell.

If you think that’s interesting (or this article on why Howell could be the best value acquisition of the offseason), keep that in mind in October because I wrote they could also gear up for a big midseason trade.

Don’t get too excited though, I didn’t have any of their signings after that article on my radar except for Jerome Baker. I didn’t write about Brown, Tyrel Dodson, Nick Harris, or Fant except that one mention. Wait, actually that’s not true: In a post about Seahawks coach-player connections, I wrote that Johnathan Hankins had previously played for defensive coordinator Aden Durde. I wrote about Baker because he was in my list of players who won’t cost Seattle a comp pick.

If we’re going purely off of stats, then Baker is a more productive linebacker than Jordyn Brooks. In six years with the Dolphins, the 27-year-old Baker averaged 98 tackles, four sacks, one forced fumble, one interception, and five tackles for a loss per season. Miami released Baker to clear $10 million in cap space, then used the money to sign Brooks. You may be wondering why a team would want to replace Brooks with Baker if another team replaced Baker with Brooks, but the Dolphins have a new defensive coordinator and are undergoing a defensive overhaul. Plus, they needed the cap space and wanted to keep Baker on a new deal, but he didn’t agree and Brooks takes up less cap space in 2024.

Actually, Sam Howell and Rayshawn Jenkins are also in that article, as are Laken Tomlinson and Cody Whitehair, two guards reportedly in Seattle’s rolodex for potentially signing contracts in the future.

Comp pick considerations

Before it was known if the Seahawks would get any comp picks, it started to feel like they might be making a play for some this time and I gave a 2025 comp pick projection on March 8th. My prediction would they would get at least one and maybe up to three or four, including a fourth, fifth, and sixth. For now, Seattle is projected for a fourth and a fifth.

QB is and it isn’t

In early February, I tried to put the brakes on quarterback talk by writing that fans shouldn’t obsess with Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy. Now that seems premature and I feel like I’ve brought up Penix or McCarthy more than I had expected, most recently writing that McCarthy’s value seems overrated compared to Penix’s as underrated. Surprisingly that feeling kicked up a notch on Saturday with Albert Breer tweeting that Penix could be QB2:

Breer does say that coaches are higher on Penix than scouts, which could imply that coaches just doesn’t have as much homework on the quarterbacks yet. Presumably this is a 12-month per year job for scouts and only 2-3 months for coaches. Penix did make my list of prospects I’m circling for the Seahawks at 16, but with the caveat that I don’t think that’s going to happen. I could do another list of 10 new names by now and I just wrote that Penix may not be a better fit for Ryan Grubb than he would be somewhere else. In my Dos and Donts, I wrote that fans need to keep an open mind and be willing to change their opinions, which is clearly what I’m doing here with Penix and whether Seattle could trade down.

There will always be quarterbacks who “rise” in February, March, and April, otherwise who would have to talk about as “falling” on draft day? I also wrote that if the Seahawks do draft a QB, they (and all teams) should see what happens by actually sitting him for a full season and letting him develop in the background.

When it came to draft alternatives, I wrote on February 21st that there were three quarterbacks who made more sense to trade for than Justin Fields, with Jake Browning at 1 (and I said that the Bengals most likely wouldn’t trade him) and Sam Howell at 2. The Seahawks then traded for the QB I felt was the best fit and more likely to be traded than Browning. QB sidenote: I did write that the Bears couldn’t get a second round pick for Justin Fields when most were still saying that they could get as much as a first. Fields was traded for a conditional fourth.

On their list of pre-draft meetings or rumored handshakes, there are prominent QB names like Michael Penix, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy, as well as less heralded like Michael Pratt and John Rhys Plumlee, who I did an entire deep dive on here. Plumlee could be Seattle’s priority undrafted free agent signing unless his pro day lifted him into the mid-day three range because these are his really good numbers:

If the Seahawks draft a quarterback in the first round, it will be one of the most shocking moments in the history of the franchise. That’s not a statement about what they “should” or “should not” do, but a reference to Seattle’s identity as a franchise that has long avoided first round quarterbacks. To do it now would be even more surprising. The Seahawks did not meet with Kentucky’s Devin Leary, at least not that we know about, but I did write about him as a possible “next Sam Howell” before Seattle even traded for Howell. For more on QBs, the Seaside Streams lists of best YouTube channels to follow has a ton of film.

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Offensive line stuff

Seahawks fans have expressed a desire to fix the trenches above all else. After the Seahawks finally settled their coaching staff with Ryan Grubb as OC and Scott Huff as offensive line coach, I asked what they might do to build the unit in their new vision.

The distinguishing quality of Charles Cross and Abe Lucas that we can never forget is that they were both direct products of the Mike Leach air raid offense in college and therefore also the least-experienced run blockers in the entire 2022 draft class.

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With Abe Lucas, the need to develop as a run blocker may end up just as important as the injuries, which is another reason I keep saying that Seattle has to prioritize offensive tackle in the draft.…

In addition to Lucas being great, he’s also unreliable. If Seattle drafts someone who can play right tackle in the first round of the draft, they address several issues: Upgrade the starting offensive line, upgrade the depth, prepare for injury, and if all are healthy, move the rookie or Lucas to right guard and upgrade the interior.

In Cross, I have yet to see a left tackle worthy of a top-10 selection.

We can actually marry the Seahawks salary cap issues with their need to assess the best future at left and right tackle: The Seahawks have a fifth-year option decision on Cross in 2025 and Lucas could technically ask for an extension as soon as next summer; so either he plays great and wants more moeny or he gets hurt.

If Seattle has nailed their selections of Cross and Lucas then that’s awesome, but premier tackles make over $20 million per year on both sides of the offensive line now. Having another tackle to develop—someone like a Troy Fautanu or Taliese Fuaga—could do so much for this position group and also take the pressure off of having to pay them both a raise at the same time.

I wrote that football starts at the football and that we shouldn’t forget that. But who’s to say that Olu Oluwatimi and Nick Harris can’t get the job done? I’m not surprised that outsiders pencil someone like Jackson Powers-Johnson in for Seattle, but I’d expect Seahawks fans to have more optimism for Oluwatimi than for a player in the draft.

Do I think that the Seahawks will draft Powers-Johnson, Fautanu, or Barton in the first round? Nobody can tell you that they know how Seattle will draft differently in the post-Pete era, probably not even John Schneider, so the best we can do is read context clues. That includes when the NFL puts such a high value on guards that the Seahawks are outbid for players like Lewis, who they may not have realized until Monday was a $13 million per year player.

Alex Rollins posted a new video on Saturday comparing tackles Joe Alt and Troy Fautanu and I have to say that it never really hit me before just how strange Fautanu looks at left tackle. Especially when his video is spliced with the 6’8+ Alt. I’ve been saying I was convinced that Fautanu could play tackle in the NFL because his arms are long enough, but right or wrong I’m sorry to say that he just does not “remind me” of an offensive tackle. It’s like Kyler Murray playing quarterback or Poona Ford playing nose tackle; I’m not saying it can’t work, but I still don’t know that it makes him a top-20 pick. If Fautanu is moving from his college position to guard, I don’t think that makes him a top-20 pick even if it would make him a steal in the late first.

I’m just surprised more analysts haven’t flat out said that Troy Fautanu looks weird playing left tackle (like R2D2 blocking Chewbacca) because he does and Washington’s opponents are not going to be as big, fast, and strong as ones in the NFL.

Draft trades

On February 27th, I wrote that the Seahawks are probably less likely to trade down at 16 then they would be at 20th or 23rd or something because they happen to be right on the border of John Schneider’s probable “first round graded” prospects.

The prospects at 29 and 58 might not be vastly different in terms of grade, but the difference between 16 and 29 is often much more significant.

Even being two months out from the draft, I’m comfortable staying that the most likely scenario involves the Seattle Seahawks sticking at #16 and picking their best player available. That’s likely the threshold for players that Schneider will have a first round grade on and he’s never traded up in the first round before. Barring Seattle loving a QB prospect and seeing him fall outside of the top-5 to top-8 picks, I don’t see why the Seahawks would trade up.

I’ve actually softened on that stance since then because of two reasons: Seattle’s pre-draft meetings, while not necessarily indicative of who they’ll actually pick, seem to be so heavily focused on players who the Seahawks probably can’t draft without picks in the 25-75 range that I wonder why Schneider would do that. Does he hear that “actually Junior Colson will make it to 81” or does he actually plan on trying to draft Junior Colson, a Michigan linebacker thought to be a good lock as a second round pick.

It would be another thing if we had official confirmation that the Seahawks have met with more players expected to go in the 16 range (for example, Laiatu Latu, Amarius Mims, Quinyon Mitchell, Brock Bowers, etc.) but they’ve only met with a few non-QBs thought to be taken in the top-20, including defensive tackles Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton, and edge Dallas Turner. How serious were those meetings? I guess we’ll find out. Seattle’s history of trading up says that’s not likely to happen.

The other reason is that the Seahawks need more draft picks and their lack of cap space could compel Schneider to trade down for a cheaper first round pick and more capital on days two and three. Schneider recently commented on this with his weekly radio show appearance and addressed the hire of Joey Laine this week, a noted salary cap analyst. Schneider made it sound like a hiring of convenience, but companies don’t tend to hire people they don’t need so I think the Seahawks need some help managing this cap.

With new information since that initial prediction two months ago to stick and pick at 16, I’m leaning towards Seattle taking that phone call (from the Green Bay Packers at 25) when they are on the clock and Schneider having to make that decision: “Do I take this blue chip prospect now or do I take my chances on a player with a lower grade but get more picks later?”

Having the Packers there possibly wanting to go get a Troy Fautanu or Taliese Fuaga or Olu Fashanu at 16, knowing that Green Bay has an abundance of picks later in the draft, it makes me think that Schneider could see it as an opportunity to sell the pick for more than it is usually worth. Eventually, I think my final prediction will have to be twofold: 1) if they don’t trade down and 2) if they do trade down. If they trade down, I think it has to be at least 5-6 spots to get the best return.

Defense

I started my case for why the Seahawks could pick a defensive player first with Friday’s post on the matter. I also wrote that the Seahawks could shock people and draft a receiver (if I had a non-QB worth trading up for then WR Rome Odunze is the one I’d mention, along with Alt). Read more about Seattle’s new Mike Macdonald defense and needs from a Ravens All-22 channel. The “beef” of the draft might be D players in the 20-60 range, another case for trading down. Brace for some potential special teams draft surprises, but the Seahawks did sign Laviska Shenault this week to try and lessen the need for another returner; the new kickoff rules require two.

A draft prediction?

If forced to lean in a direction, I’d say that the board could compel the Seahawks to trade down with the Packers, improve their draft capital on days two and three, then either draft a defensive player (someone like Johnny Newton might even still be available at 25) or take more phone calls because once you’re at 25 then you might as well hear offers to go lower. If Seattle trades down then the list of names that make sense for them gets that much longer—guards, defensive linemen, linebackers, cornerbacks, receivers, tackles—and harder to predict. Especially for a GM who is plenty used to getting called out for taking players expected to go much later so would a linebacker like Edgerrin Cooper or Payton Wilson make the cut?

Also to Luke Willson

I wrote an article about why players don’t usually get into coaching after their careers on February 11th and then on March 4th, K.J. Wright took a job with the 49ers. Well, Luke Willson was announced as the new host of All Day which is a) good news, I think he did a really good job in the first episode and b) why is he taking over a podcast named after the previous host instead of creating his own? By the way, Willson mentioned that he always thought the Seahawks under-utilized tight ends under Pete Carroll (though he says that’s his favorite coach) so that’s right from someone who played it. Even if he’s biased, he’s right. It could be a breakout year for Noah Fant.