If...

Seaside Joe 1752

If the Seahawks had not beaten the Eagles, we’d be having a much different conversation today.

At 6-8 with five straight losses, it would not matter how hard this part of the schedule had setup for Seattle, the conversation on Tuesday would be on whether or not it’s better for the Seahawks to lose out and if Pete Carroll is “West Coast Ron Rivera”: A coach just riding out his tenure as a TV character for people to put all the blame on, as if making this one change(!) will fix everything.

“But coaching changes can be good, Joe! Look at Mora to Carroll.”

For sure. And look at Carroll picking a new staff, turning over 98% of the roster, and even having to fire his own initial pick for offensive coordinator at one season. Nothing about the win on Monday changed my opinion that the Seahawks need a jolt of life after this season, in whatever form that takes, but at least now we can talk about Tennessee instead of Tankathon.

If Drew Lock had been intercepted on the final drive, we aren’t asking Pete Carroll who will start against the Titans.

Geno Smith, by the way. That was Pete's answer after the game, assuming Geno’s medically cleared.

“I bet you’re mad about that, Joe. You finally got your Drew Lock wish!”

I’ve been accused of being “unfair” to Geno despite being the most fair that a writer could be: I don’t think any analyst is fair when they only applaud and never boo. I’m reading a book about the history of Siskel and Ebert. There’s a part in it about director Robert Altman telling Roger Ebert that if he never said any of his movies were bad, then he wouldn’t believe him when the reviews were good.

How can you believe anything I say about the Seahawks if I’m only ever looking to compliment, applaud, and support every decision they make?

That’s a worthless critic.

I can say that the quarterback is not for me, while acknowledging that he gives Seattle the best chance to win at this time. How could I be unfair to Geno when I was the first writer on the planet to say that he (or Lock) could be a top-20 quarterback, a newsletter I posted five months before the start of last season?

How could I be unfair to Geno when I’ve admitted on multiple occasions that he’s better than I assumed he’d be? I don’t recall Geno writing back after he’s turned in performances that were worse than we assumed he’d be. How could I be unfair when I projected an acceptable three-year contract for Geno—a month before he signed—that was almost exactly what he got?

And how could I be unfair to Geno Smith when I’m saying that even after Drew Lock was the quarterback during Seattle’s best December win in the last four years that it’s understandable why Pete wouldn’t make him the starter?

All I’ve ever said about the Seahawks benching Geno Smith is that I would expect Pete to make a change if Seattle dropped out of playoff contention. Ironically, Lock might be more likely to start against the Titans if Seattle had lost than if he hadn’t thrown a game-winning touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And he very nearly threw at least two interceptable passes on the 92-yard drive, as Top Billin’ pointed out in his apology video:

Lock could have been intercepted on either of his last two attempts to DK Metcalf or when he attempted to squeeze a pass through a tight window to Tyler Lockett, so the difference in celebrating and wallowing in sorrow is truly that small. An interception and he’s “the worst quarterback ever” instead of the hero, which to me is not that much different than how it’s been all year.

But I will give Lock credit for one thing: The Seahawks have actually been missing some of those dangerous throws with Geno and if it wasn’t for Lock’s moxy, I don’t think Seattle wins the game. It was a do-or-die situation and sometimes Geno is too conservative, more afraid of getting intercepted than he is of losing the game because he didn’t throw a touchdown. The Seahawks needed to beat the Eagles, not not-lose to them; when you don’t win, you do lose.

If I was unfair to Geno, clearly I would be writing “I told you so” and “Lock needs to start this week”, but this was never personal. I haven’t been attacking Geno or criticizing him for personal reasons. I’m glad we’ve seen two games of Lock now so that we can say for sure that the difference isn’t all that great. The Seahawks didn’t win because of the quarterback as much as they won because Shane Waldron trusted Ken Walker even when Seattle was behind; the defense did just enough after a horrific start; special teams when it mattered; and the Seahawks were finally the lucky team instead of the unlucky team.

You live or die by the gunslinger. The Seahawks live, but only by centimeters.

If the game gave Drew Lock a confidence boost, he could yet be a starter again.

Even if Lock has been so-so, there isn’t a large enough sample size in Seattle for any of us to say for sure what he could be after this game. Rob Staton said after the win that “we all know what Drew Lock is” but I disagree. Did we know what Kirk Cousins was after three bad seasons in Washington? Did we know what Alex Smith was after six bad years on the 49ers? Jared Goff and Geno Smith, did we know what they were before last season?

I think of Baker Mayfield and how his audition with the Rams in 2022, after both the Browns and Panthers gave up on him, afforded him a chance to start for the Buccaneers—but only after a competition against Kyle Trask. Mayfield’s one-year contract (for the same amount of money that Lock got) is all but guaranteed to become a long-term agreement now that he’s re-gained confidence and put Tampa in position to win the division.

Even if Lock doesn’t appear in another game this season, I expect him to leave in free agency if the Seahawks don’t give him a chance to start.

“But Joe, it’s only two games! Where else could he go to be better off?”

Anywhere that gives him a chance to compete in training camp to be a starter. What if former Seahawks QBs coach Dave Canales, now one of the hottest coaching names because of Mayfield’s recent run, becomes the head coach in Washington or Las Vegas or dare I say, Pittsburgh or New England?

The feel good story of “I support Geno and Geno supports me” goes out the window as soon as another team offers Lock an opportunity to start. If the Seahawks don’t cut Geno, then Lock knows he won’t compete to start in Seattle. I think he could have that opportunity somewhere else, so the Seahawks have to make a choice by March and there’s no telling what’s right.

Whatever they decide, please pair him with a rookie draft pick.

If Jamal Adams never started again, it would be too soon

When I initially wrote this section, there still wasn’t much clarity on how hurt Adams was or why he’s been missing in the past week, but Pete’s post-game show with Seattle Sports offered a little more insight…while also kind of muddying the picture even more.

Though Pete referenced Adams’ difficult recovery from last season’s quad injury, he also implied that it was a coaching decision to keep him inactive against the Eagles and that it wasn’t quite sitting right enough with the safety for him to be there. And yet at the same time, Pete emphasized that the Seahawks “need” Adams against the Titans, so unless the player is too ticked off to return then it sounds like he hasn’t made his last appearance with the team.

I still hope that he’s made his last start.

“Rude!”

Sorry.

If I’m the only Seahawks writer who is allowed to speculate like this, that’s a cross I’m happy to bear: Is it merely coincidence that the week after Pete called out Riq Woolen and then benched him that he also called out Adams and then he was missing from practice all week and inactive due to a “knee injury”?

Woolen, formerly a 100-percent snaps player, saw only 28% of the snaps against the Eagles and the defense was better for it. Mike Jackson came through and he’s a suitable replacement for the time being. Artie Burns and Coby Bryant, too.

This isn’t the end for Woolen. He’s 24 and it makes sense to keep him in the fold, to keep faith that he’ll be better next season with a full offseason to prepare and develop.

It should be the last season for Adams.

He said at the start of the season that he considered retiring after his latest injury and maybe that would have been for the best. He’s been exploited by opposing offenses and I get the sweats just from thinking of how Monday would have been different if it was him back there instead of Julian Love; Adams has two interceptions in 34 games with Seattle, whereas Love had two interceptions in the fourth quarter last night.

I don’t fault Pete and John for the effort when they traded for Adams. I get the thought process. Not all moves work like you hope they will and if Adams’ absence isn’t part of a conspiracy to bench him without making an announcement about it, then let the results speak for themselves.

I doubt any fans will be upset if Adams is never seen again. He’s not the player he used to be and he can learn a lesson from Pete to avoid criticism: Blame the injury.

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If the Seahawks beat the Titans, their playoff odds go back to where they were before the losing streak started.

Right around 75%, which is where it was five weeks ago. The odds are currently at 45%, with 77% being the number from the start of the losing streak:

How likely is it that the Seahawks will make the playoffs? Keep reading…