Seahawks need to run--and run block--against Eagles

Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet finally have the O-line and opponent to breakout a big one: Seaside Joe 1747

If the Seattle Seahawks were half the team that Pete Carroll wanted them to be, then they would either be a top-5 rushing team or a top-5 defense. They’re neither of those things.

In some ways, the Seahawks have been a bottom-5 rushing team and bottom-5 defense, ranking 28th in yards allowed, 29th in points per drive allowed, 30th on third downs on defense, 26th in red zone defense conversion rate, and 28th in EPA. Seattle is slightly better when it comes to running the football, but still rank 28th in rushing yards, 22nd in yards per carry, and 15th in rushing EPA.

I don’t pretend to have the answers—I still think the word f∞tball is spelled with an infinity symbol—but it seems like fixing the run in the short term is infinitely more manageable than fixing the defense by Monday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Sometimes that’s easier said than run.

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Seahawks rushing offense

Seattle drafted second round running backs in back-to-back years (Ken Walker was the second RB in his class, Zach Charbonnet was the third) and yet the Seahawks are less effective on the ground this season than they were in 2022. The Seahawks ranked 7th in yards per carry in 2022 at 4.8 YPC, now they sit at 4.0 YPC.

But it was super duper clear to everyone during Sunday’s loss to the 49ers that Walker and Charbonnet are as talented as advertised on several immaculate runs against San Francisco’s defense. What would Z.C. do? He would have back-to-back 23-yard runs, including this:

In his weekly interview segment with Seattle Sports, Pete Carroll praised these plays by Charbonnet, and of course this escape room act by Walker:

While this is not a run by Walker, it proves that he is as elusive as expected coming out of Michigan State in 2022. I called him a “Dance-Dance Revolution” runner for his ability to rapidly beat his feet’s cleats against turf street to the tune of skeet-skeet.

Walker, who I personally feel is a family member of mine even if he doesn’t agree, has unfortunately been subject to playing in an offense that has yet to develop chemistry with his best attributes. What I mean by that is that Walker was not a fit for Wake Forest (and clearly not a fit for his high school either because he was not one of the top-2000 recruits in the country) and their slow mesh offense, but when he went to the Spartans he became a legitimate Heisman candidate.

However, Pete Carroll wants his running backs to fit within a certain mold and to hit the lanes they’re told to hit (I’m not trying to put words in Pete’s mouth here, as he has already praised Walker’s elusiveness on plays like the one above) which is why Marshawn Lynch was the PERFECT Seahawks running back: He created yards with contact, Walker attempts to create yards by avoiding contact.

But you can’t just assume that every running back who is known for breaking tackles is going to be a good fit for Seattle’s offense, hence: Eddie Lacy.

Over his last four games, Walker has 40 carries for 118 yards and zero touchdowns, giving him a 2.95 yards per carry average that is less than ideal.

We’ve seen better from Walker in the past—over his last five games in 2022, he was on a 1,500-yard pace—and I think we will see better from him in the future. Especially once Carroll and Shane Waldron understand the best way to use him in harmony with Charbonnet.

Another running back who benefited from a transfer, Charbonnet went from Michigan to UCLA and dramatically increased his draft stock by rushing for 2,500 yards and 27 touchdowns in two seasons with Chip Kelly. Charbonnet averaged 6.3 yards per carry, including 7.0 yards per carry as a senior. He has not tapped into the same average in the NFL and with increased reps over the last month, Charbonnet has 57 carries for 198 yards (3.5 YPC) in the last four games.

These are bad averages for both players but are they getting the help they need?

The Seahawks rank 13th in yards before contact per attempt, which seems fine, except that their mark is 2.7 and the team that is 25th is at 2.5. So teams are separated by very little, which tells me that even a single play—one untouched run, similar to what Seattle allowed to Christian McCaffrey on the first snap—could impact the average by a significant margin.

Walker’s 2.8 YBC/att is 16th, Charbonnet’s of 2.5 is 23rd.

What’s a little bit more telling is that Charbonnet is 6th in the NFL in rushing attempts/broken tackle (10.6) and Walker is 18th (14.3). Charbonnet is even ahead of Bijan Robinson (10.7) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11.6), the two running backs selected ahead of him in 2023.

I think the Seahawks have the running backs capable of being a top-5 rushing team. Do they have the scheme and the offensive line?

OL changes

It’s hard to evaluate the Seahawks offensive line as a whole because the unit has undergone changes throughout the season. Abraham Lucas played part of the first game and then part of the loss to the Cowboys (59%) and then 90% of the snaps against the 49ers. Seattle’s starting right tackle, sometimes called the best player on the whole unit, has yet to play in a full game this season. Lucas didn’t run block a lot at Washington State, it’s a work in progress, but is he a more ideal option than Stone Forsythe and Jason Peters?

Right guard Phil Haynes went on IR, meaning that fourth round pick Anthony Bradford is the new starter. He played every snap or almost in Week 3, Week 4, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 13, and Week 14. Of Seattle’s five games this season with at least 100 rushing yards, Bradford has started in four of them.

He was, after all, called a “run mauling guard” before the draft.

We now see an offensive line set to roll with Charles Cross, Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, Bradford, and Lucas. Is this the ideal five—plus Seattle’s best run-blocking tight end, Will Dissly—to spark Walker and Charbonnet for more explosive runs against the Eagles?

Eagles run defense

Before the season, I looked at the quick ascension of the Eagles from 2021 to 2022 and asked, “How could the Seahawks model this for their own success?” The two franchises have a lot of similarities and that’s been the case since their respective GMs were both hired in 2010, John Schneider and Howie Roseman.

Now it’s a matter of asking whether Seattle should be careful to model Philly too closely.

The Eagles gave up the second-fewest yards in 2022 and ranked third in DVOA. This was largely thanks to a pass defense ranked first in yards, first in net yards per pass attempt, and being fifth in turnovers forced. The run defense was 24th in yards per carry and 16th in rushing yards.

Now Philly’s defense has kind of tanked, dropping to 28th in points, 22nd in yards, 30th in points per drive, and 28th in passing yards. They are sixth in rushing yards allowed, but teams don’t run on the Eagles (2nd-fewest attempts) so that is the reason for that.

That’s changed lately though:

In the last four games, the Eagles have allowed 168, 173, 146, and 138 rushing yards, their four-highest totals allowed of the entire season. The Eagles have lost the last two games, 42-19 and 33-13, preceded by a 21-17 win over the Chiefs and 37-34 OT win over the Bills.

They’re giving up a lot of points and a lot of rushing yards, and that’s a beacon of hope for Seahawks fans desperate to see the team finally breakout for a game with at least 150 rushing yards—something we haven’t seen since 2022.

Now who’s ready for some f∞tball?