Hard no on the trade with the Saints. Like that we get a high R2 and a 2024 R1, don't like that we move back TWENTY-FOUR spots in Round 1, and absolutely HATE the inclusion of Alvin Kamara. Aside from the off-field stuff (which is bad enough) and the strong possibility of him facing a 6-game suspension, he'd really only be a 1-year rental. Cap hit in 2023 (via trade) = $1.08M (yay!). Cap hit in 2024 (via trade) = $11.8M ($10.2M base + $1M roster bonus + $500k in per-game roster bonuses + $100k workout bonus). No thanks. 2025 cap hit = $25M !!!!!!! ($22.4M base + $2M roster bonus + the same per-game and workout bonuses as 2024). NO, NO, NO, NO, NO !!!!!!
Even if the trade was a good idea (which it's not), how would the Saints even make it work?
Right now, per OTC, the Saints have $14,659,642 in available cap space. That's before they sign their draft picks, field a practice squad, etc. Kamara's cap hit in 2023 is slated to be $8.157M, but . . . there's $24.292M in dead money on it that would hit the cap the second the Saints made that trade (since the draft is before June 1st and the Saints couldn't push any of the dead money to 2024). That means the Saints would instantly LOSE $16.135M in cap space and $16.135M is more than they currently have.
On top of that, swapping #29 + #40 for #5 would INCREASE the cost of signing their 2023 draft class by $2,186,239 which means the Saints would be even further underwater.
Well, it is pretty clear that we cannot draft Troy Palamalu. He is not available, nor is Reggie White or Bobby Wagner (because we already have Wags!). What I am looking for early on from this draft are Career 'Gold Jacket worthy' players.
Too many marginal QBs have come through the turnstiles WAY too soon to be in their draft position. Thus I am more focused on what I do not want in this year's draft. Reaching for marginal talent is OK late in the first round or later on, but in No way am I cool with being the team that passed on Generational talents.
Hoping for a QB who had a marginal college career to be worthy of a top-5 pick just seems so - well I do not want to come off as an elitist, but it screams not understanding the game. IF a career difference-maker at QB can be had later on, why give up the chance for an Game-wrecking defender?
The Hawks must have 2 interior D-line positions filled. Since we already have QB-1 and QB2, drafting a 'down the road' QB can be done down the road some...maybe even in this very draft - but Not at the top. Nope.
Not unless PC/JS are looking John Cusack-style at a 'Sure Thing'. For that matter, let this 80's movie be the lesson here - maybe the Seahawks sure thing is the less obvious choice.
I don´t want to go with Tyree Wilson (think he´s more fit for 4-3 D), ANthony Richardson, Will Levis (low floor and chance of getting 2024 1st rounder makes a chance... adressing QB next year (Penix, Maye, Williams or even McCall or whoever everges on the scene), other DB´s (i like Gonzalez very much, but i dont think he is Pete s type), nor OT´s.... i like Smith-Njigba very much, but not at 5.... )
Long story short - there are (solely in my view) only 3 (and a half) players above the line for No. 5 pick...
I sure like your thinking, but I'd move Witherspoon up to just below trading down for a major haul and above CJ Stroud unless, ya know, John is in love, then sure.
Nor FBI nor Party.... I think about it this way: A. If they are in love with either Torreence or Schmitz (or whoever else) and they know there is at least one team, that would pick them before 37/52, it´s not party, it´s just...rather now than not....B, If they didnt adress DL or OLB with 5th pick, take IOL and there is still someone like Van Ness or Nolan Smith, it takes me to closer to the FBI doors :), C. If they pick OT, i would count it towards "adressing IOL" because it would mean one of two things...either Abe inside, or... this O"T" is not regarded as OT but as IOL....
Come on y'all. An IOL at #20?!? He'd have to be really special for me to get on board with that. Are we talking about someone specific here? Torrence or Schmitz? Maybe I could see a tackle that gives us flexibility to try out guys in different positions, but I'm gonna need some convincing to leave my minority "arrest Pete and John" vote to join the "Party Patrol."
There is the thought that Torrence would an immediate starter with Pro Bowl potential. That’s good for Geno and Ken Walker. FWIW, the success rate of first round O-linemen is relatively high.
IMO the league has been entering a period of "overspending". Most teams are near the limit and dumping good players. Hence, affordable, 2nd/3rd round picks are the new coveted commodity. Seriously, we don't need 1 player, we need 6 or 9. Dig, because I got my own life to live for...
Anyway - trade down if there are any good offers - especially 2024 1st or 2nd rounders. This draft is rich at picks 15 to 55.
I've honestly been wondering when the "QB Bubble" is going to pop. They can't go up indefinitely and I think eventually teams will stop giving out crazy QB contracts when/if enough teams who make their QB the highest paid (at their demand) end up being terrible. I think we might already be seeing it with Lamar and the Ravens.
The Ravens are 45-16 with Jackson, 8-15 without him. That’s not an indicator that Lamar is terrible.
Currently, the only active QBs on a second+ contract with the team that drafted them are Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott*, and Aaron Rodgers (a Packer until he’s not). Murray is obviously problematic and we’ll see about Jones. I doubt that any of the other teams regrets a second contract. The general point here is that there aren’t as many crazy contracts as one might think.
* Fans can go around and around about how good Prescott is. In my view, he does pretty well considering that he plays for a bad owner.
With Carter, I believe having vets and former players like Bobby, Diggs, Kam, Avril makes a big difference. As you heard in Sherman’s podcast with Diggs.
For QB in first round the only option I feel good about is Young. If they want to take someone like Hooker in the 3rd round that’s cool with me.
I said I trust PCJS so if they find a IOL who they think is worth a first round pick then I will trust their choice until proven wrong.
Re Carter, you ask the $64,000 question. FWIW, Chris Simms ranks Hooker third among all QBs and thinks that Hendon will wind up going in the first round.
You've beat the shit out of me into getting Grayson McCall, so stay away from QBs this year. Spend the capital mostly on defense and let's find out if Clint Hurt (what a great football name) is a good coordinator.
"The Saints signed Derek Carr, but New Orleans loves to be aggressive and maybe they’d be the team that thinks they can get the most out of Anthony Richardson with a three-year plan"
Insert ----Denver and Sean Payton. THAT I would love to see!
"The Saints signed Derek Carr, but New Orleans loves to be aggressive and maybe they’d be the team that thinks they can get the most out of Anthony Richardson with a three-year plan"
Insert ----Denver and Sean Payton. THAT I would love to see!
Would be really nice If the Seahawks get a nice offer to still land in the early 10s and then are maybe even able to select someone they had graded worth their original Pick.
Best case for me: another trade back and then get 3 Game changing Defenders early.
I'd love to see the Seahawks getting trade offers in the first round.
In how they have handled the Geno and Lock Situation i think they could really pass on every QB before the 5th round and have their eyes already on 2024 prospects.
The question is whether there’s a trade to be had. A trading partner would have to want a particular player who is available, believe that they can’t get him unless they trade up, believe that he is worth taking at #5, and have the assets to make a move. There’s a lot of moving parts there.
You opened Pandora's box on me Kenneth. Witherspoon. This guy IS a difference maker. He is not Sherman but blend Kam and Richard into a smaller CB and wholla!!!!! We have a FOOTBALL player!!!
I wouldn't trade 5 for anything out of the top ten. As long as we get their 2023 first and their 2024 first. I don't believe there's nobody worth getting in the top ten. Team just has to do its homework.
I almost said okay to the N.O. trade. Then saw Kamara. Naaa. I agree with Charles Swift below. If you're hot enough on Kamara, why not just draft Bijan?
Kamara is a "get rid of contract trade" for N.O. He'd cost a bunch (about the same as #5? - but more over time) - but not necessarily a deal breaker. If we got a #1 next year - with N.O.'s chances of success? Heck yeah baby!
I don’t know if Ken’s daily meditation habit is rubbing off on me (transcendental enlightenment by osmosis?) but I’m feeling pretty zen about any of the options presented here. Part of it is that I’ve typically felt underwhelmed with Seahawk first picks under Pete, and also typically had my perceptions proven wrong so often (in both directions). Just waiting, with no expectations, feels pretty good. I’m sure I’ll still react after each pick though.
The very first pick, yup. Their first round track record isn’t bad:
Russell Okung (6) Earl Thomas (14) (2010)
James Carpenter (25) (2011)
Bruce Irvin (15) (2012)
Germain Ifedi (31) (2016)
Rashaad Penny (27) (2018)
LJ Collier (29) (2019)
Jordyn Brooks (27) (2020)
Charles Cross (9) (2022)
Of these, Cross, Irvin, Okung, and Thomas are probably the only ones that Schneider put a first-round rating on. Overall, there’s one absolute bomb, but no one is perfect.
Most notably, Lane’s end zone interception Tom Brady in SB49. Without that, there’s no end-of-game controversy. Lane was injured on the play and knocked out of the game. Tharold Simon replaced him. That and Cliff Avril’s concussion in the second half were the decisive moments of the game.
Hard no on the trade with the Saints. Like that we get a high R2 and a 2024 R1, don't like that we move back TWENTY-FOUR spots in Round 1, and absolutely HATE the inclusion of Alvin Kamara. Aside from the off-field stuff (which is bad enough) and the strong possibility of him facing a 6-game suspension, he'd really only be a 1-year rental. Cap hit in 2023 (via trade) = $1.08M (yay!). Cap hit in 2024 (via trade) = $11.8M ($10.2M base + $1M roster bonus + $500k in per-game roster bonuses + $100k workout bonus). No thanks. 2025 cap hit = $25M !!!!!!! ($22.4M base + $2M roster bonus + the same per-game and workout bonuses as 2024). NO, NO, NO, NO, NO !!!!!!
Even if the trade was a good idea (which it's not), how would the Saints even make it work?
Right now, per OTC, the Saints have $14,659,642 in available cap space. That's before they sign their draft picks, field a practice squad, etc. Kamara's cap hit in 2023 is slated to be $8.157M, but . . . there's $24.292M in dead money on it that would hit the cap the second the Saints made that trade (since the draft is before June 1st and the Saints couldn't push any of the dead money to 2024). That means the Saints would instantly LOSE $16.135M in cap space and $16.135M is more than they currently have.
On top of that, swapping #29 + #40 for #5 would INCREASE the cost of signing their 2023 draft class by $2,186,239 which means the Saints would be even further underwater.
The Sure Thing...
Well, it is pretty clear that we cannot draft Troy Palamalu. He is not available, nor is Reggie White or Bobby Wagner (because we already have Wags!). What I am looking for early on from this draft are Career 'Gold Jacket worthy' players.
Too many marginal QBs have come through the turnstiles WAY too soon to be in their draft position. Thus I am more focused on what I do not want in this year's draft. Reaching for marginal talent is OK late in the first round or later on, but in No way am I cool with being the team that passed on Generational talents.
Hoping for a QB who had a marginal college career to be worthy of a top-5 pick just seems so - well I do not want to come off as an elitist, but it screams not understanding the game. IF a career difference-maker at QB can be had later on, why give up the chance for an Game-wrecking defender?
The Hawks must have 2 interior D-line positions filled. Since we already have QB-1 and QB2, drafting a 'down the road' QB can be done down the road some...maybe even in this very draft - but Not at the top. Nope.
Not unless PC/JS are looking John Cusack-style at a 'Sure Thing'. For that matter, let this 80's movie be the lesson here - maybe the Seahawks sure thing is the less obvious choice.
My Board for No. 5 ...
1. Bryce Young
2. Will Anderson
3. Jalen Carter
4A. Try to trade for Big Haul
4B. CJ Stroud
5A Another Try to trade down for good return
5B. Try to ztrade down for smaller haul
5C. Devon Witherspoon
I don´t want to go with Tyree Wilson (think he´s more fit for 4-3 D), ANthony Richardson, Will Levis (low floor and chance of getting 2024 1st rounder makes a chance... adressing QB next year (Penix, Maye, Williams or even McCall or whoever everges on the scene), other DB´s (i like Gonzalez very much, but i dont think he is Pete s type), nor OT´s.... i like Smith-Njigba very much, but not at 5.... )
Long story short - there are (solely in my view) only 3 (and a half) players above the line for No. 5 pick...
I sure like your thinking, but I'd move Witherspoon up to just below trading down for a major haul and above CJ Stroud unless, ya know, John is in love, then sure.
Nor FBI nor Party.... I think about it this way: A. If they are in love with either Torreence or Schmitz (or whoever else) and they know there is at least one team, that would pick them before 37/52, it´s not party, it´s just...rather now than not....B, If they didnt adress DL or OLB with 5th pick, take IOL and there is still someone like Van Ness or Nolan Smith, it takes me to closer to the FBI doors :), C. If they pick OT, i would count it towards "adressing IOL" because it would mean one of two things...either Abe inside, or... this O"T" is not regarded as OT but as IOL....
Come on y'all. An IOL at #20?!? He'd have to be really special for me to get on board with that. Are we talking about someone specific here? Torrence or Schmitz? Maybe I could see a tackle that gives us flexibility to try out guys in different positions, but I'm gonna need some convincing to leave my minority "arrest Pete and John" vote to join the "Party Patrol."
There is the thought that Torrence would an immediate starter with Pro Bowl potential. That’s good for Geno and Ken Walker. FWIW, the success rate of first round O-linemen is relatively high.
IMO the league has been entering a period of "overspending". Most teams are near the limit and dumping good players. Hence, affordable, 2nd/3rd round picks are the new coveted commodity. Seriously, we don't need 1 player, we need 6 or 9. Dig, because I got my own life to live for...
Anyway - trade down if there are any good offers - especially 2024 1st or 2nd rounders. This draft is rich at picks 15 to 55.
I've honestly been wondering when the "QB Bubble" is going to pop. They can't go up indefinitely and I think eventually teams will stop giving out crazy QB contracts when/if enough teams who make their QB the highest paid (at their demand) end up being terrible. I think we might already be seeing it with Lamar and the Ravens.
The Ravens are 45-16 with Jackson, 8-15 without him. That’s not an indicator that Lamar is terrible.
Currently, the only active QBs on a second+ contract with the team that drafted them are Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott*, and Aaron Rodgers (a Packer until he’s not). Murray is obviously problematic and we’ll see about Jones. I doubt that any of the other teams regrets a second contract. The general point here is that there aren’t as many crazy contracts as one might think.
* Fans can go around and around about how good Prescott is. In my view, he does pretty well considering that he plays for a bad owner.
With Carter, I believe having vets and former players like Bobby, Diggs, Kam, Avril makes a big difference. As you heard in Sherman’s podcast with Diggs.
For QB in first round the only option I feel good about is Young. If they want to take someone like Hooker in the 3rd round that’s cool with me.
I said I trust PCJS so if they find a IOL who they think is worth a first round pick then I will trust their choice until proven wrong.
Re Carter, you ask the $64,000 question. FWIW, Chris Simms ranks Hooker third among all QBs and thinks that Hendon will wind up going in the first round.
Re:Hooker, my comment is less about him specifically, and more about I want them to prioritize other positions in the first 2 rounds.
You've beat the shit out of me into getting Grayson McCall, so stay away from QBs this year. Spend the capital mostly on defense and let's find out if Clint Hurt (what a great football name) is a good coordinator.
I would take the Saints trade in a heartbeat
"The Saints signed Derek Carr, but New Orleans loves to be aggressive and maybe they’d be the team that thinks they can get the most out of Anthony Richardson with a three-year plan"
Insert ----Denver and Sean Payton. THAT I would love to see!
"The Saints signed Derek Carr, but New Orleans loves to be aggressive and maybe they’d be the team that thinks they can get the most out of Anthony Richardson with a three-year plan"
Insert ----Denver and Sean Payton. THAT I would love to see!
The Seahawks are tight on salary cap, trading down might help that as I don’t think there is a player they have to have at the 5th pick.
Would be really nice If the Seahawks get a nice offer to still land in the early 10s and then are maybe even able to select someone they had graded worth their original Pick.
Best case for me: another trade back and then get 3 Game changing Defenders early.
I'd love to see the Seahawks getting trade offers in the first round.
In how they have handled the Geno and Lock Situation i think they could really pass on every QB before the 5th round and have their eyes already on 2024 prospects.
Maybe they are looking at the 2025 or 2026 draft. Geno has plenty of tread on the tires.
The question is whether there’s a trade to be had. A trading partner would have to want a particular player who is available, believe that they can’t get him unless they trade up, believe that he is worth taking at #5, and have the assets to make a move. There’s a lot of moving parts there.
You opened Pandora's box on me Kenneth. Witherspoon. This guy IS a difference maker. He is not Sherman but blend Kam and Richard into a smaller CB and wholla!!!!! We have a FOOTBALL player!!!
Kenneth,
1) Appreciate the post, as always. Thanks.
2) For whatever reason, I am still unable to vote in polls, even as a logged-in paid subscriber.
3) Finally for what it's worth, my votes are as follows: Yes, No, Yes, TPP, Cloud 9
Cheers -
I was having trouble too on the desktop version of Substack; but I could vote once I went to my mobile app.
That worked! Problem solved!
Thanks again!
Oh, interesting! I'll check that out.
Thanks!
ChatGPI is that you?
Are you a felon?
He stole my bike when I was riding in Italy. Vittorio was there!
Seaside Joe seems to attract movie literacy.
Not so's you'd notice.
That's EXACTLY what an AI bot would say... hmm 🤪
I wouldn't trade 5 for anything out of the top ten. As long as we get their 2023 first and their 2024 first. I don't believe there's nobody worth getting in the top ten. Team just has to do its homework.
I almost said okay to the N.O. trade. Then saw Kamara. Naaa. I agree with Charles Swift below. If you're hot enough on Kamara, why not just draft Bijan?
Kamara is a "get rid of contract trade" for N.O. He'd cost a bunch (about the same as #5? - but more over time) - but not necessarily a deal breaker. If we got a #1 next year - with N.O.'s chances of success? Heck yeah baby!
Fair point but dont get the #1 pick in 24 that way- which I value
I don’t know if Ken’s daily meditation habit is rubbing off on me (transcendental enlightenment by osmosis?) but I’m feeling pretty zen about any of the options presented here. Part of it is that I’ve typically felt underwhelmed with Seahawk first picks under Pete, and also typically had my perceptions proven wrong so often (in both directions). Just waiting, with no expectations, feels pretty good. I’m sure I’ll still react after each pick though.
The very first pick, yup. Their first round track record isn’t bad:
Russell Okung (6) Earl Thomas (14) (2010)
James Carpenter (25) (2011)
Bruce Irvin (15) (2012)
Germain Ifedi (31) (2016)
Rashaad Penny (27) (2018)
LJ Collier (29) (2019)
Jordyn Brooks (27) (2020)
Charles Cross (9) (2022)
Of these, Cross, Irvin, Okung, and Thomas are probably the only ones that Schneider put a first-round rating on. Overall, there’s one absolute bomb, but no one is perfect.
He traded down before taking Irvin, I believe.
With Philly from #12 for #15 and a late round pick. The Eagles took Fletcher Cox. The Hawks used the late round pick on Jeremy Lane.
and we got some value out of Jeremy Lane if I am not mistaken. Then we traded him for another draft pick I think.
Most notably, Lane’s end zone interception Tom Brady in SB49. Without that, there’s no end-of-game controversy. Lane was injured on the play and knocked out of the game. Tharold Simon replaced him. That and Cliff Avril’s concussion in the second half were the decisive moments of the game.