So my little dream world of BPA drafting Bijan at #5 to just cause havoc lining up two franchise backs has been explained before. Then at #37 we could take Skinner, and keep Diggs & Adams. Line up Diggs deep with a little drop-off CB support and rush Skinner & Adams into the mid-field/round the outside to get into the backfield and just hit anyone that moves. Who needs an Edge or DT when you are rushing Nuwsou and two safeties! Pick Sanders at #20 as a another BPA pick (still convinced he's the best LB in this class) because he loves to rush around and hit hard as well. Forget 3-4 vs 4-3 schemes. I'm bringing the 2-1-4Blitz and pure chaos to the NFL (why has no team hired me?!).
Reading between the lines here, several of these questions essentially flow on from "how close do you think the Hawks, as constructed this season, are to a SB/playoff run?".
I'm optimistic about what can be achieved with Geno under centre, and that radical reinvestment in the trenches plus the return of Adams will give us a great shot at shoring up our weaknesses. I absolutely see the appeal of moving on from Geno, Shelby (I voted yes on cutting Shelby to free up some more $$$ as his cap hit hasn't been commensurate with his production) and Jamal to reset the roster and build a 9ers-esque team with our draft assets and cap space. However, I want to see what can be achieved with those draft assets and the small amount of cap space we have left after re-signing Geno and dropping players like Harris and Gabe Jackson.
2022 provided proof-of-concept on the Waldron/Geno offense. We're in a great position thanks to the huge value from this year's rookies. However, our window to maximise that value is set at 3-4 years and over that period we'll need to re-sign key contributors like Damien Lewis, Brooks, Taylor, Diggs and Nwosu, while DK's cap hit will climb and Lockett will likely regress over the remainder of his contract. With all of that in mind, the key for Seattle will be to maximise our chances next season in such a way that allows us to cut bait on high cap-hit players in 2024 without jeopardising our cap situation beyond that year.
Maybe a topic for a future newsletter if not done already. "Define BPA." Would it be conceivable to put out a BPA list in order on the eve of the draft? And would there be general agreement on it? BPA is to some extent dependent on position played. Assume Players X and Y are equally superior as football players, would it make a difference to their BPA-ness (do not say aloud) if X is a right tackle and Y a middle linebacker? And what about psychological fit, should we expect the BPA at any given pick to be seen as the best available player by Pete Carroll as well as by Sean Payton, Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, or historically Tom Landry, John Madden, and Bill Walsh? My point is that BPA sounds like a gold standard, but is probably more fuzzy as a concept than we think. As for "needs," the problem is not drafting to fill needs, but "reaching" to fill needs.
1. We shouldn’t pay Geno what he’s going to require. He should get paid, but not by us. He’s on the downhill side of his career. We need to look to our future, not get locked into a big contract.
2. Given my answer for #1,… yes, we need a top tier young QB to begin the future of Seattle football.
3. Yes, release him, only if we can get someone better.
4. I know Jamal hasn’t been able to stay healthy. But when he IS, he is the lifeblood of the team. Also, in my estimation, he wasn’t utilized correctly the season before his last injury. He needs to be cracking down as a true strong safety/ linebacker.
5. I’m not that big of a fan of BPA, UNLESS we can parlay it into trading for what we NEED.
I voted no only because I know what the cost would be.
#2 -Should Hawks draft a qb at 5?
I voted no because I don’t think Young will be on the board.
#3 -Release Shelby Harris?
Voted yes though I like him. I’m not sure if the savings are enough to replace him with anyone better though.
#4 Trade Jamal for a day 3?
No way. You invested far too much to give up this soon.
#5 BPA or need?
My belief is BPA always. Drafting for need is how you get guys like LJ Collier on your roster. Bijan is like Christian MCafferty except twitchier and harder to tackle. You can find a place for him on the field. And let’s not act as if many teams keep a running back for an full season.
I voted for BPA but I'm changing my vote to draft for need. We have so many needs that it's hard to imagine that a player of similar grade won't be available at a position of need.
Best player versus needs aren't necessarily mutually exclusive, nor is the best player easy to determine. Remember, only 30% of the players drafted in the first round will sign a second contract with their team, and only 6% will produce above league average. Therefore, choosing a player capable of producing above the league average would seem to be critical. If the player being considered has a unique skill that makes them a match-up nightmare, and they tick the boxes for character then you’ve gone a long way toward a decision.
Based on that analysis, we should take Bijan Robinson, who is special and the best at his position. He set the collegiate record with 104 broken tackles in 2022. I don't need a running back, but I want Bijan Robinson. Ah, but wait; what will introducing Robinson mean to K9's production? K9 gets better as the game wears on. Will you diminish his production in the fourth quarter if you take away carries? So, even "special" doesn't guarantee a fit. Quentin Johnson is the best receiver in the draft, but I don't think he's special. I do believe he would make a bigger difference to the Hawks than Robinson, even though he's not the better player.
How much good does Bijan Robinson do if you give up thirty points a game because he can't play defense? You're building a team, not just drafting a player. What are your options outside of the draft, and how much depth does the position offer in this or next year's draft?
How much better is the prospect than the player already on your roster? Is there a cost-effective answer in free agency or trade? Teams turnover yearly, so players that exceed average production year after year are extraordinarily valuable. Still, you can’t ignore dead cap money even if you desperately want to draft a special player.
If it seems like I contradict myself at times in this comment, it's because I'm sure I do. So many aspects have to dovetail to create the magic that it gets confusing just talking about it, let alone making the call. Drafting for need and picking the best player may be exactly the same, but I dunno… it’s complicated.
No need to keep Geno. He’s going to cost AT LEAST $25M per year but his 10-year body of work suggests that he is no better than the $3.5M he was able to command just last year. There is no job I can think of where one good half-year out of ten entitles someone to an 800% raise.
Draft a QB at #5 if one is available. Levis, Stroud or Richardson only, please. Sign Drew Lock to man the starting spot for as long as he can hold it.
Draft BPA. ALWAYS.
Retain Shelby Harris! He was perhaps our best DL this season and he’s a leader on the field and in the locker room. It would cost you more to replace him in free agency than it does to retain him on his current salary. The man has earned it.
For me, Jamal Adams has been an enigma. On one hand, he has caused me more frustration than almost any Seahawks player in history (followed very closely by Rashaad Penny). His injuries have kept him off the field far more than he’s been on it since we acquired him and we’ve paid him $MILLIONS with no ROI. However, he is not just a good player, Jamal Adams is a generational talent who is among the very best football players in the league when he’s healthy. I cannot fault him for getting injured playing a game that injures almost everyone. Trading a generational talent regardless of circumstances for a day 3 pick (someone who would be very lucky to even make the team) is a ridiculous notion and anyone who would entertain it simply doesn’t know or understand the NFL.
I am obviously in the minority on the last question but my real feeling is BPA with needs in mind. Like no CB's, Safeties, or RB's at 20 but by the time you get to 37 RB is in play, at 52 Safety gets interesting and after that anything but ST specialists. I'm not against a BPA approach but only within reason. Can't ignore glaring holes with guys capable of filling them sitting right there for the taking.
I'd keep Geno if we could sign him for $15M but above that no thanks. I wouldn't want to draft a QB at #5 regardless. Would be more open to it with one of our other picks. I don't see anyone worthy of that much draft capital. Would rather take a risk on the best available defensive linebacker.
I don't see the point in releasing Harris. His contract isn't outrageous. I'd be open to trading him for fair value. I see no point in releasing Adams or trading him for minimal capital. If we're lucky he returns at full speed and can be used in a way that torments opponents. If not, the damage is done and nothing's really accomplished by giving him away.
In the draft, I'm always for best available player with an eye toward need. Can't dismiss need entirely but if there's a significant talent differential, go with the better player. Then trade or use free agency to plug holes. With the draft, it's essential to load up on as much talent as possible because it comes on the cheap. Teams that have inexpensive talent under contract can then use free agency and trades to acquire other talent that needs to be paid market rates. Putting it all together is an art but one necessary to build a championship caliber team.
JS/PC most likely had a plan to draft a QB in this draft and worked plans around that. They should stick with that plan. Geno being better than expected was great, but is he still what we need at $30 million instead of $7 million? I don’t think so.
I wrote yes to take a QB because I don't think Jalen Carter is going to be there at 5. I'm also ready to move on from Jamal Adams and potentially draft his replacement. I reacted too quickly to note that trading him costs more money. If it costs more money, I keep him and pray that he isn't made of glass and plays his ass off, earning a trade away next year.
Depends on actual difference between "BPA" and "need position." Was Creed Humphries (sp?) the BPA when he was drafted, or did KC need a center? I don't know the answer. What's the drop-off between "BPA" and "need position," especially in later rounds? Unless you're talking about absolute studs... and how many are there, really?... (well, all of them are compared to me)... can you say that player X is the BPA after the first ten choices without being subjective? It would be interesting to consider this without hindsight bias.
So my little dream world of BPA drafting Bijan at #5 to just cause havoc lining up two franchise backs has been explained before. Then at #37 we could take Skinner, and keep Diggs & Adams. Line up Diggs deep with a little drop-off CB support and rush Skinner & Adams into the mid-field/round the outside to get into the backfield and just hit anyone that moves. Who needs an Edge or DT when you are rushing Nuwsou and two safeties! Pick Sanders at #20 as a another BPA pick (still convinced he's the best LB in this class) because he loves to rush around and hit hard as well. Forget 3-4 vs 4-3 schemes. I'm bringing the 2-1-4Blitz and pure chaos to the NFL (why has no team hired me?!).
Reading between the lines here, several of these questions essentially flow on from "how close do you think the Hawks, as constructed this season, are to a SB/playoff run?".
I'm optimistic about what can be achieved with Geno under centre, and that radical reinvestment in the trenches plus the return of Adams will give us a great shot at shoring up our weaknesses. I absolutely see the appeal of moving on from Geno, Shelby (I voted yes on cutting Shelby to free up some more $$$ as his cap hit hasn't been commensurate with his production) and Jamal to reset the roster and build a 9ers-esque team with our draft assets and cap space. However, I want to see what can be achieved with those draft assets and the small amount of cap space we have left after re-signing Geno and dropping players like Harris and Gabe Jackson.
2022 provided proof-of-concept on the Waldron/Geno offense. We're in a great position thanks to the huge value from this year's rookies. However, our window to maximise that value is set at 3-4 years and over that period we'll need to re-sign key contributors like Damien Lewis, Brooks, Taylor, Diggs and Nwosu, while DK's cap hit will climb and Lockett will likely regress over the remainder of his contract. With all of that in mind, the key for Seattle will be to maximise our chances next season in such a way that allows us to cut bait on high cap-hit players in 2024 without jeopardising our cap situation beyond that year.
Maybe a topic for a future newsletter if not done already. "Define BPA." Would it be conceivable to put out a BPA list in order on the eve of the draft? And would there be general agreement on it? BPA is to some extent dependent on position played. Assume Players X and Y are equally superior as football players, would it make a difference to their BPA-ness (do not say aloud) if X is a right tackle and Y a middle linebacker? And what about psychological fit, should we expect the BPA at any given pick to be seen as the best available player by Pete Carroll as well as by Sean Payton, Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, or historically Tom Landry, John Madden, and Bill Walsh? My point is that BPA sounds like a gold standard, but is probably more fuzzy as a concept than we think. As for "needs," the problem is not drafting to fill needs, but "reaching" to fill needs.
1. We shouldn’t pay Geno what he’s going to require. He should get paid, but not by us. He’s on the downhill side of his career. We need to look to our future, not get locked into a big contract.
2. Given my answer for #1,… yes, we need a top tier young QB to begin the future of Seattle football.
3. Yes, release him, only if we can get someone better.
4. I know Jamal hasn’t been able to stay healthy. But when he IS, he is the lifeblood of the team. Also, in my estimation, he wasn’t utilized correctly the season before his last injury. He needs to be cracking down as a true strong safety/ linebacker.
5. I’m not that big of a fan of BPA, UNLESS we can parlay it into trading for what we NEED.
#1 - Should hawks keep Geno?
I voted no only because I know what the cost would be.
#2 -Should Hawks draft a qb at 5?
I voted no because I don’t think Young will be on the board.
#3 -Release Shelby Harris?
Voted yes though I like him. I’m not sure if the savings are enough to replace him with anyone better though.
#4 Trade Jamal for a day 3?
No way. You invested far too much to give up this soon.
#5 BPA or need?
My belief is BPA always. Drafting for need is how you get guys like LJ Collier on your roster. Bijan is like Christian MCafferty except twitchier and harder to tackle. You can find a place for him on the field. And let’s not act as if many teams keep a running back for an full season.
Haha. The top of this post is an ad that points out here’s no ads. Ironic. 😆
They have so many needs that BPA shouldn't be a trade-off anyway.
No Quartback this year. All defense especially defense tackles. Big ones, Siaki Ika, Mazi Smith etc....
I voted for BPA but I'm changing my vote to draft for need. We have so many needs that it's hard to imagine that a player of similar grade won't be available at a position of need.
Best player versus needs aren't necessarily mutually exclusive, nor is the best player easy to determine. Remember, only 30% of the players drafted in the first round will sign a second contract with their team, and only 6% will produce above league average. Therefore, choosing a player capable of producing above the league average would seem to be critical. If the player being considered has a unique skill that makes them a match-up nightmare, and they tick the boxes for character then you’ve gone a long way toward a decision.
Based on that analysis, we should take Bijan Robinson, who is special and the best at his position. He set the collegiate record with 104 broken tackles in 2022. I don't need a running back, but I want Bijan Robinson. Ah, but wait; what will introducing Robinson mean to K9's production? K9 gets better as the game wears on. Will you diminish his production in the fourth quarter if you take away carries? So, even "special" doesn't guarantee a fit. Quentin Johnson is the best receiver in the draft, but I don't think he's special. I do believe he would make a bigger difference to the Hawks than Robinson, even though he's not the better player.
How much good does Bijan Robinson do if you give up thirty points a game because he can't play defense? You're building a team, not just drafting a player. What are your options outside of the draft, and how much depth does the position offer in this or next year's draft?
How much better is the prospect than the player already on your roster? Is there a cost-effective answer in free agency or trade? Teams turnover yearly, so players that exceed average production year after year are extraordinarily valuable. Still, you can’t ignore dead cap money even if you desperately want to draft a special player.
If it seems like I contradict myself at times in this comment, it's because I'm sure I do. So many aspects have to dovetail to create the magic that it gets confusing just talking about it, let alone making the call. Drafting for need and picking the best player may be exactly the same, but I dunno… it’s complicated.
No need to keep Geno. He’s going to cost AT LEAST $25M per year but his 10-year body of work suggests that he is no better than the $3.5M he was able to command just last year. There is no job I can think of where one good half-year out of ten entitles someone to an 800% raise.
Draft a QB at #5 if one is available. Levis, Stroud or Richardson only, please. Sign Drew Lock to man the starting spot for as long as he can hold it.
Draft BPA. ALWAYS.
Retain Shelby Harris! He was perhaps our best DL this season and he’s a leader on the field and in the locker room. It would cost you more to replace him in free agency than it does to retain him on his current salary. The man has earned it.
For me, Jamal Adams has been an enigma. On one hand, he has caused me more frustration than almost any Seahawks player in history (followed very closely by Rashaad Penny). His injuries have kept him off the field far more than he’s been on it since we acquired him and we’ve paid him $MILLIONS with no ROI. However, he is not just a good player, Jamal Adams is a generational talent who is among the very best football players in the league when he’s healthy. I cannot fault him for getting injured playing a game that injures almost everyone. Trading a generational talent regardless of circumstances for a day 3 pick (someone who would be very lucky to even make the team) is a ridiculous notion and anyone who would entertain it simply doesn’t know or understand the NFL.
The needs on this team are still so many that BPA is going to overlap somewhat with “needs”.
No to Geno at 32+ AAV
No to QB at #5
Shelby? Restructure attempt maybe before deciding to cut the cord.he was part of The Trade for a reason.
I am obviously in the minority on the last question but my real feeling is BPA with needs in mind. Like no CB's, Safeties, or RB's at 20 but by the time you get to 37 RB is in play, at 52 Safety gets interesting and after that anything but ST specialists. I'm not against a BPA approach but only within reason. Can't ignore glaring holes with guys capable of filling them sitting right there for the taking.
I'd keep Geno if we could sign him for $15M but above that no thanks. I wouldn't want to draft a QB at #5 regardless. Would be more open to it with one of our other picks. I don't see anyone worthy of that much draft capital. Would rather take a risk on the best available defensive linebacker.
I don't see the point in releasing Harris. His contract isn't outrageous. I'd be open to trading him for fair value. I see no point in releasing Adams or trading him for minimal capital. If we're lucky he returns at full speed and can be used in a way that torments opponents. If not, the damage is done and nothing's really accomplished by giving him away.
In the draft, I'm always for best available player with an eye toward need. Can't dismiss need entirely but if there's a significant talent differential, go with the better player. Then trade or use free agency to plug holes. With the draft, it's essential to load up on as much talent as possible because it comes on the cheap. Teams that have inexpensive talent under contract can then use free agency and trades to acquire other talent that needs to be paid market rates. Putting it all together is an art but one necessary to build a championship caliber team.
JS/PC most likely had a plan to draft a QB in this draft and worked plans around that. They should stick with that plan. Geno being better than expected was great, but is he still what we need at $30 million instead of $7 million? I don’t think so.
I wrote yes to take a QB because I don't think Jalen Carter is going to be there at 5. I'm also ready to move on from Jamal Adams and potentially draft his replacement. I reacted too quickly to note that trading him costs more money. If it costs more money, I keep him and pray that he isn't made of glass and plays his ass off, earning a trade away next year.
Depends on actual difference between "BPA" and "need position." Was Creed Humphries (sp?) the BPA when he was drafted, or did KC need a center? I don't know the answer. What's the drop-off between "BPA" and "need position," especially in later rounds? Unless you're talking about absolute studs... and how many are there, really?... (well, all of them are compared to me)... can you say that player X is the BPA after the first ten choices without being subjective? It would be interesting to consider this without hindsight bias.