Seahawks fans cite offensive line, trenches as biggest concern of the future

Why the Seahawks may go another year without drafting a G/C in the first round: Seaside Joe 1850

Last week, Seaside Joe posted 5 questions for Seahawks fans about the recent past, the present, and the future of the Seattle franchise. These were the results of those polls and we had a record number of fans participate this time! Thanks for being a subscriber and helping Seaside Joe continue to grow as we move into our sixth year as a newsletter and third year on Substack.

I will also announce the first winner of the “W” sunglasses at the bottom of today’s article.

Join Seaside Joe as a free or paid member (only $5 per month) to read, participate and support. There will be content EVERY DAY OF 2024 and much more to come leading into the 2024 draft.

Here is what you said about the 2024 Seattle Seahawks:

G/C is biggest concern on offense

59% of fans voted G/C as the “biggest concern on offense” and even though I personally don’t get the chills when I see the current Seahawks depth chart, I understand that relative to other positions on offense it stands out the most as having the least experience and talent. I put WR/TE there as a formality and though there are concerns at tackle, Seattle might have three starters if everyone’s healthy.

The Seahawks gave Tremayne Anchrum about $1 million with only $100,000 guaranteed so he’s not guaranteed to make the roster. There are still plenty of capable veteran free agents, so I’m thinking the depth chart looks much different by Week 1. No matter who is starting, any time a team gets a new offensive line coach, it potentially resets expectations and performances by the players. If Seattle’s offensive line is better than fans think it is, I don’t know how that doesn’t leave all of the pressure on Geno Smith at that point.

Stop the run

Almost as lopsided on defense, the concerns that fans have for the Seahawks inability to stop the run lately: 58% called stopping the run the biggest concern. The Seahawks ranked 29th in rushing attempts against, 31st in rushing yards against, 30th in rushing touchdowns against, and 27th in yards per carry against.

So I don’t have any problem with Seattle replacing both linebackers in free agency. John Schneider mentioned that the linebackers went “faster” in free agency than he had anticipated, so maybe losing Jordyn Brooks to the Dolphins was not Plan A; but he had months to sign Brooks before free agency so I don’t think running it back was necessarily Plan A either.

I watched a mock draft by Joel Klatt and for the Seahawks pick of DT Byron Murphy, he explained that when he had conversations with Macdonald as the Michigan defensive coordinator in 2021, he talked about the importance of “building a wall” on the defensive line. Seattle’s wall is kind of bursting before we even get to the draft: Dre’Mont Jones, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins, Mike Morris, Myles Adams, and Cameron Young. This doesn’t mean the Seahawks won’t draft a defensive tackle first either.

Nobody is unhappy with John and Mike yet

If I went by social media during free agency, I would think most fans are upset and confused by the new era of John Schneider. I’ve regularly seen complaints on Twitter like “He lost THIS guy but kept THAT guy?” and “It’s HIS FAULT that the Seahawks paid too much to SAFETIES!” and “Why did he CUT Quandre Diggs, the SAFETY?!”

A lesson in the fact that Twitter is not real life.

42% of fans here at Seaside Joe expected good and think it’s good, while 33% say it is better than expected. Only 4% said I expected bad or it is worse than I expected.

Get ready for the playoffs

Can the Seahawks make the playoffs next season? I mean, probably. Last year, Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love made the playoffs. The Rams made the playoffs and they didn’t have any money or a first round draft pick. The Lions tied for the best record in the NFC! The 49ers made the Super Bowl with the last pick of the draft starting at quarterback. The Eagles made the playoffs and they were one of the worst teams in the conference by the end of the season.

The Seahawks went 9-8, not 4-13. But when I see numbers like these:

Like “The Seahawks were 30th on third down defense” and “The Seahawks were 25th on red zone offense”, it tells me that Seattle is statistically more likely to improve than to worsen or stay the same.

The Seahawks ranked 29th in points per drive allowed last season. What if Seattle’s offense continues to score 21.5 points per game (average) but the defense improves from 23.6 points allowed (25th) to 20.6 points per game (closer to average)? That should be a 9 or 10-win team usually and that’s good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC.

I’ve been talking up the Rams this year, but I’m much more hesitant to do so since the retirement of Aaron Donald. That move exposes all of L.A.’s weaknesses on defense, although I still think that it is a tough matchup for the Seahawks. However, new coaches, so one of Sean McVay’s toughest assignments in 2024 will be gameplanning for Macdonald and Ryan Grubb.

Better times next year

We can all agree that the top-two answers (39% trenches, 38% defense) are intertwined. Pretty clear through these five questions that even if the head coach is new, what Seahawks fans want the team to be better at remains the same: Improve the offensive and defensive lines.

Here’s one thing I’ll add about the prospect of the Seahawks picking a guard or center as early as fans want them to draft a center or guard: For at least the last eight years, I’ve written pre-draft articles and done shows saying, “Well, that could be a great decision but virtually all of the evidence points to the team not doing that.” And then some fans, understandably and respectfully so, give some reasons (which are perfectly rational and valid) why “this year is different than all those past years.”

And then the draft goes by and it’s not different.

Inevitably a draft will happen, perhaps even the 2024 edition, that the Seahawks break the streak and defy the evidence. When that happens, it’ll be that I “was wrong and must always be wrong”. You can be right 9 out of 10 times but it only takes being wrong once for the evidence not to matter.

More on drafting a guard or center in the first round

I really just add this part because you have probably noticed already that a lot of mock drafts have the Seahawks picking Oregon center/guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and he’s currently the most popular Seattle pick at 20%. If not him, then maybe Troy Fautanu and starting his career at left or right guard, or Duke center Graham Barton. Any fan who wants the Seahawks to pick one or any of those three players, that’s OKAY WITH ME. Will I get to the point of making my mock pick and decide that JPJ could be the pick? Maybe!

For now, I’m still thinking that the evidence points to a different position and that’s not necessarily going to be a bad thing for the offensive line. Seattle could use their third round pick on a Week 1 starting guard too.

One more observation I want to share related to that this morning is the overwhelming evidence that suggests that between 4-6 quarterbacks will be selected before the Seahawks are on the clock at 16: If six QBs go in the top-15, then that means that Seattle will have the opportunity to draft one of the top-10 non-quarterbacks in the entire class. Yes, six QBs in the top-15 would be HISTORIC and usually I would say that the media is overhyping the interest in quarterback prospects AGAIN.

However, this time it seems plausible that QBs will go 1-2-3. In addition, the Vikings aren’t really hiding an intention to go QB hunting in the draft, while Sean Payton has come out to say it is “realistic” that the Broncos could trade up in the draft, almost certainly implying for a QB. On top of the Bears, Moons, Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos, you’ve also got the Giants at six and Raiders at 13.

I’m not going to play the mock game right now, that just looks to me like seven teams that might overrate a QB prospect out of desperation and so I’m buying that J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and maybe even Michael Penix could be top-15 picks. If we conservatively estimate five QBs in the top-15, and add four receivers in the top-15 with Brian Thomas making the new “big four”, it could leave Seattle not only with JPJ and Fautanu, but maybe their top-rated edge rusher; maybe their top-rated offensive tackle; maybe their top-rated defensive tackle; maybe their top-rated corner; and maybe in their room they say, “Wow, we think Brock Bowers is a top-5 overall player in this class.”

Schneider emphasized that the team doesn’t draft for need until the sixth and seventh round. So it’s not just slotting in a guard because a guard will start right away and upgrade a huge hole on the offense, it’s also comparing that guard to every other available prospect in the draft. If QBs, WRs, and OTs comprise most of the top-15 picks, which looks like it will be the case, it gives Schneider a hell of a lot of options at other positions. Maybe this will lead to a trade down, or maybe it will give the Seahawks a blue chip prospect who they never imagined would make it out of the top-10.

I just wanted to add some context to a situation that needs more context because I’ve seen this laser focus with the Seahawks draft on “one need” or “one prospect” many times before (“a team is never one player away from the Super Bowl” as Michael Lombardi often says) and the results don’t usually match the expectation. It doesn’t mean that it can’t, it doesn’t mean that it won’t this time, it’s just an alternative point of view from your friend Seaside Joe.

The first winner of Seaside Jay’s “W” glasses is…Paul O.!

We had three Pauls entered into the contest, so to be clear the winner is Paul O.! Thank you for entering the contest and supporting as a Regular Joes member, Paul! Winners can contact me if they see this message or I’ll be contacting you shortly for information on where to send the prize!