The 7 biggest questions facing the Seahawks in their final 3 games

What we must learn from here on out: Seaside Joe 1386

The Seattle Seahawks are playing their worst football under Pete Carroll since the earliest days of his tenure. That doesn’t require them to continue playing bad football over the last three games of the regular season and if Carroll can manage a way to right the ship in time, Seattle may actually have more than three games left to play.

The Seahawks need to shoot for the playoffs, starting this Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs, then followed by games against the New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams. Beyond needing three wins, what else does Seattle need to do and what should the organization learn about themselves with their remaining opportunities before the offseason? Some of those questions aren’t just big right now, they’ll set the tone for years to come.

Is Pete Carroll going to coach the Seahawks in 2023?

Speculation is heating up that Carroll could not be coaching the Seahawks next season, but really that is nothing new and I’ve never recommended giving any of your emotion over to rumors. Especially from certain sources.

Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL

I think 7ish Car, Indy obviously. Broncos, Texans, Chargers, Commanders, Cardinals, Saints, Bucs, andeven potentially the Rams and Seahawks all could be looking for new HCs for a variety of reasons.

ThatBroncoFan @Broncofan5968

@AllbrightNFL How many NFL teams do you think will be looking for new coaches at the end of the season?

But let’s set aside what Carroll wants to do and face a fact: If the Seahawks don’t show some life in these last three games and lose out, Seattle will have lost seven of eight to close out the season. It’s one thing to survive a 1-7 start and then finish 7-10. It’s a different temp in the case of the Seahawks current trajectory, if it plays out that way.

Seattle hasn’t just been losing games, they’ve been losing games by playing like a bottom-three defense against mediocre competition. That last part is the most important: Against mediocre competition.

I remember how much I criticized and remained a disbeliever in the 2015 Carolina Panthers team that went 15-1 because they played the easiest schedule in the NFL. And they went 15-1. The Seahawks have played a comparable schedule to the ‘15 Panthers and they’re likely to finish 7-10, 8-9, or if they start playing at least kinda good again, 9-8.

If we are being as fair and realistic today as we were being between March and September, then any of those three records is acceptable for the 2022 Seahawks. Most of us never thought they could be anything more than an 8-9 team that is basically in the exact position that they are in right now. If anything, Pete may hit Seattle’s 2022 ceiling.

However, I would entertain the premise that at a more granular level than the record, the Seahawks are worse than expected.

Of their seven wins, four have come against teams that have a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. (Technically, the Broncos and Rams do not have their picks and of course, Seattle owns Denver’s first and second rounders. Read updated Seahawks 2023 draft order for the first three rounds.) Worse, the Seahawks are kind of good at things that we thought would be bad, and really horrible at things that we thought they’d be kind of good at.

Like run defense.

By getting decimated by some of the NFL’s most mediocre teams (0-4 against the NFC South plus a loss to the Raiders) and learning that at least some of their offseason moves were potentially misguided (re-signing Quandre Diggs, bringing back Gabe Jackson, signing Austin Blythe instead of a good center), Seattle will have to question if they are close to contention in 2023 on this current path.

I never thought that the Seahawks could compete for the playoffs this year, I was only optimistic that Seattle’s offseason decisions would lead to a quicker path back to the postseason in 2023 once they brought aboard the right quarterback. Illogical as it may sound, the Seahawks are better than I thought this year, they have a pretty good quarterback already, and yet I’ll be less optimistic about 2023 if Seattle ends up playing as poorly in the next three games as they have in the last five.

But again, it’s not just about their current string of losses. It’s about the first nine games too—Seattle’s defense is as bad as it is because they get mauled on the ground EVERY week and it’s often coming against teams that didn’t even know they had running backs on the roster until they faced the Seahawks.

Now, I don’t agree with Rob Staton that teams should just always move on from coaches after 8-10 years, if they last that long.

If the Patriots had moved on from Bill Belichick after 10 seasons (which would have been after a 10-6 season in 2009, a run of two years in a row without a playoff win), New England could have missed out on five more Super Bowl appearances, three more championships, and winning the AFC East for each of the next TEN seasons.

This is Andy Reid’s 10th season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Should this be his last year with the Chiefs, no matter how it ends?

No matter how Seattle’s season ends, I won’t be the one to say that Pete Carroll should leave. However, I also don’t see myself getting upset about it, whether it would be Pete’s decision or someone else’s call, one of the few people above him in the pecking order.

It would be surprising to see Pete leave less than one year after trading Russell Wilson at the perfect time and orchestrating a draft class that has played so far beyond expectations. But the team got to be so bad because of a string of poor decisions in the draft prior to 2022 and generally getting out-strategized by the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in all phases of team building for the last few years.

It is hard to admit. It is also true.

Win the last three games, and I delete this newsletter entry and we pretend it never happened. Lose out and nobody is going to care that 7-10 is a better record than we expected.

Should Geno Smith finally write back?

Geno Smith has earned his place in the NFL as a starter next season. Should it be with the Seahawks? I don’t really think that depends on the final three games, I’ve made it known that Seattle’s best option would be to give him the non-exclusive franchise tag, although the transition tag is also in play. I’ve not yet checked in on the current status of poison pills, however, because it’s too painful.

Jason_OTC @Jason_OTC

@benbbaldwin @DaltonBMiller that tag would be used for Lamar Jackson. Highly unlikely for Geno Smith who probably should get the transition tag if they were going to use a tag on him

No matter what the Seahawks end up doing, there’s no arguing against the probability that Geno hasn’t been as good in the last two months and that a poor final three games would really hurt his case for a long-term contract with any team in 2023.

While some will point to certain interceptions as “not Geno’s fault,” others could point to having a pick-six saved from your record because of a borderline roughing the passer call against the 49ers. That would be far from Geno’s only non-interception interception of the season, and Geno now has eight turnovers in his last six games.

Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz

NFL's most entertaining quarterbacks in terms of combined big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate (PFF). Really good or really bad things happening at all times: 1. Josh Allen (6.9% BTT, 4.2% TWP) 2. Geno Smith (5.9%, 4.2%) 3. Justin Fields (4.4%, 4.8%)

Brad Spielberger, Esq. @PFF_Brad

Geno Smith through Week 8: - 84.8 passing grade (4th) - 6.8% Big Time Throw rate (3rd) - 3.2% Turnover Worthy Play rate (23rd-most) Since: - 65.5 (29th) - 4.9% Big Time Throw rate (19th) - 5.1% Turnover Worthy Play rate (9th-most) Still a Geno believer though

I still don’t think turnovers are as harmful to this bad-defense roster as the fact that just when the Seahawks need a long drive that eats clock, they go three-and-out in under a minute. Maybe that’s coaching or offensive line play or a lack of third threat or DK Metcalf’s kind-of-disappointing-but-we-don’t-talk-about-it campaign. It’s a combination!

All of those excuses will be buried under blankets of praise though if Eugene Cyril Smith III beats Patrick Mahomes, Zach Wilson, and Baker Mayfield in Seattle’s last three games. No matter how it happens. Go 10-7 and Smith will demand a long-term deal. Go 7-10 and the Seahawks could be hoping that Smith still has trade value left. That’s the difficult nature of the business.

It would be fun to see what Drew Lock could do in the offense but I’m not going to add his name to this list. Geno has at least earned the right to be Seattle’s only quarterback for the rest of this season.

Will we see the special Kenneth Walker III again?

Walker is a running back but that won’t stop me from giving him the same slack that I give to all rookies. It’s never usually a flat out “mulligan year” but first-year players need the opportunity to fail and we shouldn’t crush their spirits or confidence because they fall on their faces when they’re learning to walk.

In his most recent six games, behind potentially the worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL, Walker has 83 carries for 286 yards, scoring five touchdowns but only averaging 3.45 YPC. He has caught 15 of 21 passes for 121 yards in that time, which would be a 17-game pace of 42 receptions and 343 yards.

B/R Gridiron @brgridiron

KENNETH WALKER WILL NOT BE DENIED 😤💪 (via @NFL)

I knew he could be a dual-threat back, even if he didn’t catch many passes in college.

That being said, Walker was so special in college that I’ve entertained comparisons to some of the all-time greats, many of whom did have Pro Bowl seasons as rookies. That won’t be the case for Walker, who was injured at the start of the season and then working behind Rashaad Penny when he returned, but he did show us flashes of that greatness in the middle of the season: 52 carries for 352 yards and 6.77 YPC in his first three games with extensive action.

Walker has 696 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games. He has an outside shot at a 1,000-yard season, something Seattle hasn’t had since Chris Carson in 2019. A strong, electrifying finish to the season would be a great way to cap the year, even though it wouldn’t slow down my recommendation to re-sign Rashaad Penny again.

They’re better when they’re together.

DK — Do Better

Metcalf signed a slightly better contract in the offseason than Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin. He’s tied with Stefon Diggs for the sixth-best AAV among receivers in the NFL. His cap hit goes up to $13.7 million in 2023, then $24.5 million in 2024. He makes more than Tyler Lockett.

With Geno Smith playing this well, and Metcalf showing a lack of emotional control during the games, his season has been generally underwhelming—even though we shouldn’t lose sight of how much better Metcalf is than almost any other Seahawks draft pick at wide receiver in history.

He’s 25 and his sky continues to be limitless. Why not see more of that potential in the final three games with a dramatic exclamation point on his first season post-contract?

On that note, Lockett is set to miss at least one game, if not the rest of the season with an injured finger. Dareke Young nearly made a spectacular catch on Thursday night, so why not showcase Seattle’s seventh round pick a little bit more this Saturday against the Chiefs? That could be better than forcing more targets to Penny Hart.

Is Quandre Diggs playing his final three games with Seattle?

These are the major cap casualty candidates for the Seahawks next offseason:

• Cutting Gabe Jackson saves $6.5 million

• Cutting Shelby Harris saves $9 million

• Cutting Quinton Jefferson saves $4 million

• Cutting Al Woods saves $3.7 million

• Cutting Bryan Mone saves $2.8 million

• Cutting Quandre Diggs saves $10 million

People who talk about Seattle’s “cap space estimates” next year should not do so without addressing at least a couple of these very obvious cuts. The money will be there for a quarterback and most anything else. Less obvious though is the necessity to have Diggs on the defense next season given how poorly he and his unit have played in 2022, the first year of his three-year, $39 million contract.

Both Diggs and Jamal Adams have $18.1 million cap hits next season, but Adams carries no savings unless he’s traded after June 1. Is a team willing to pay Adams an $11 million base salary? Post-June 1 trades like that are rare.

The Seahawks may choose to keep Ryan Neal, a restricted free agent, and cut Diggs for cap savings. A strong finish would help Diggs’ case of course, but is it too little, too late?

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I also think that the Seahawks could do more with the $15.5 million they’d save by releasing Harris and Jackson and signing upgrades at guard and defensive line instead.

The Uchenna Nwosu extension debate

Rapinas do Mar (Cortes) @cortesrapinas

Uchenna Nwosu criou o sack para Quinton Jefferson.

That money could also be used to keep Nwosu beyond 2023. He’s set to cost $12.8 million in the second season of his two-year deal, but Seattle could extend him and bring down his 2023 cap hit at the same time. The Seahawks need so much more help on the edges but Nwosu would be a fine component to a good defense. Nwosu is one sack away from his first double-digit sack campaign.

Is Jordyn Brooks a fifth-year option player?

Most late first round picks actually do not get the fifth-year option and an off-ball linebacker may have an even tougher road to prove that he’s deserving of that raise through three years. Brooks is a voracious tackler—second in the NFL—but I think we’ve all learned by now not to get caught up in tackle totals anymore than we do passing yards.

These are a statistic of opportunity and Seattle’s defense continues to play the most defensive snaps and to allow the most runners to get into the second level.

Brooks is yet to have that season like Roquan Smith or Devin White or Bobby Wagner where he’s all over the field, causing turnovers, making splash plays, and most importantly, winning over fans. Brooks could be in the Pro Bowl this season, but so could Nick Bellore. The Pro Bowl is also a product of opportunity, sometimes when a position just needs to put someone in the Pro Bowl.

I like Brooks and I see the benefit of giving him the fifth-year option, but that is a raise from under $4 million in 2023 to over $11 million in 2024. Has Brooks been $8 million per year better than his current play/pay? Furthermore, do the Seahawks really need to bring back Cody Barton, a 2023 free agent?

I’m not sure if those answers will be revealed just in the next three games. Seattle should already know their answers. Frankly, 31st in run defense says a lot about someone, whether that’s the coaches or the players. I’ve always felt that players make the coaches. But then again, someone chooses the players. In the case of the Seahawks, that someone is Pete Carroll.

If he returns next year, he needs to decide on almost every defensive player if he made the right choice initially. Then he’ll have to make it again.

Don’t be 31st again next year. Or the next three games.

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