Seahawks free agent: Austin Blythe deal would finalize Seattle's 2023 starting OL
You can be mad about it, but you can't deny what a Blythe contract implies: 2/21/2023
I was not planning on writing about Austin Blythe on Tuesday—nor did I expect to address Nick Bellore, who has reportedly agreed to a new contract that will keep him in Seattle—but the Seahawks’ $5 million contract with Phil Haynes has forced me to expedite the write-up on center:
If the Seattle Seahawks re-sign Austin Blythe, they will be choosing continuity over “talent” and we can put to rest any considerations for Pete Carroll drafting any offensive linemen with the intention to start them as rookies.
“But Seaside Joe, surely Blythe and Haynes could be upgraded!” Surely they could in theory, in no way is reporting facts the same as giving endorsements, but we can’t rob ourselves of reality. The Seahawks paid Haynes a $4 million contract that is worth up to $5 million, which is not the amount Seattle would spend for a backup or a player who is expected to compete for his job at right guard. At a $5 million cap hit, Haynes comes in around the middle of the pack for right guard salaries and it accounts for most of the $6.5 million that the Seahawks will save once they release Gabe Jackson.
On that note, Seattle will have solidified that they have two starting offensive tackles in Abe Lucas and Charles Cross, two expected starting guards in Haynes and Damien Lewis, and only one hole left on their 2023 offensive line: Center.
Therefore, if the Seahawks do re-sign Blythe it would surely have to be for an amount that assures him the starting role at center. What else could it be? Teams don’t typically re-sign players with demotions.
Whatever we might think of Blythe’s first year in Seattle, there’s no clear indication that Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron are unconcomfortable with him running it back. In fact, because Waldron’s job is secure and 80% of the offensive line looks to return (maybe call it 70% since Haynes split time with Jackson), Blythe might have the inside track to return.
Does that make me nervous? I mean…Hell yeah it makes me nervous.
One key game highlighted for Blythe on the schedule was Week 17 against the Jets and Quinnen Williams. Said Michael Bumpus of 710AM leading into the game:
“He’s going to have to have a big game. There are times where Austin has been pushed back a couple of times,” Bumpus said. “… So I just need him to step up because Quinnen Williams is going to hit you with the bull rush. He’s going to use his hands, he’s going to try to split the double team, he’s going to get into the backfield. You need to contain this man, especially on those stretch (run) plays (where you’re) trying to get outside, when you reach into that double team and you’re holding on for dear life until your guard can climb up to that linebacker. Austin Blythe, get big.”
Williams had a season-high 4 QB hits against the Seahawks, tying his season-best of 4 total pressures.
But if the Seahawks bring back Geno Smith, that’s the center he’s worked with for a year. If the Seahawks replace Geno Smith, Blythe is the center who might be most prepared to call the shots and protections for the offensive line to help ease the transition at quarterback.
Like Haynes at right guard, a $4 million salary would put Blythe round around 15th in center pay in the NFL. Former Seattle center Justin Britt is on a two-year, $9 million contract with the Texans and his first-year cap hit was $2.8 million in 2022. If the Seahawks gave Blythe that contract, they’d be looking at the cheapest starting offensive line in the NFL (call it $18.2 million with Haynes and Blythe) but they’d be selling it as one of the few lines in the NFL that has almost complete continuity from last season.
Now here’s what you really need to know: If the Seahawks re-sign Blythe, forget all the talk about drafting a center in the first or second round. That’s not Pete Carroll, even if you want it to be Pete Carroll. We’ve had 13 years with Pete and John Schneider, surely we should be tracking and respecting their habits by now.
If the Seahawks bring back Blythe, that assures that Pete has his starting five for 2023 and even if the interior feels underwhelming—and even if Seattle still intends to draft an offensive lineman after their first three picks—we need to let go of expectations that this franchise would draft one of the highest-rated guards or centers in the class. Yes, Lewis and Haynes are 2024 free agents. Yes, Blythe is not a long-term answer.
But Seattle would be clearly setting themselves up to use their early picks on other needs and positions—edge is a must-have, defensive tackle and linebacker could be must-have—once Pete’s finalized his 2023 starting five. He could always add the more Pete-like fourth and sixth round guards on day three—then swing back around in the 2024 draft.
This isn’t Seaside Joe saying, “Wow, the Seahawks are going to do a great thing and everything you wanted them to do!” This is me saying, the Seahawks are one move away from finishing their starting five for next season and life will be easier if we accept that and don’t treat it as some sort of rouse.
Nick Bellore return
Also, Nick Bellore is reportedly coming back. He cost $2.75 million last season to be the special teams captain. It would be surprising if he cost much more much less than that.
Many will ask whether or not these moves imply anything about Geno Smith negotiations. I would say what I’ve been saying: The franchise tag really seems mathematically impossible. Giving Haynes $5 million and Bellore another $2-$3 million would not seem probable with a $32.4 million franchise tag for Geno. So I’d say that either Seattle is confident in a contract with Geno or comfortable with a departure.
I won’t go any further than that because it’s all speculation.
Previously: I wrote about Rashaad Penny’s free agency and 95% of you voted that you wanted the Seahawks to give him the contract I proposed. Let’s run another poll: Should the Seahawks do the Justin Britt deal (two years, $9 million, $2.8m cap hit for 2023) with Austin Blythe?
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I've created a metric for players at different positions using data from PFF.
For offensive lineman I add the PFF grades for pass protection and run blocking them subtract the pressures given up (hurries, hits and sacks}, percentage x10. x10 in order to see more separation between players and giving it more emphasis because of importance.
I did the calculation for pros to check validity. You can judge for yourself.
Jason Kelce 154.6
Chris Lindstrom 151.6
Lane Johnson 147.0
Corey Linsley 146.7
Creed Humphrey 144.8
Tristin Wirfs 142.4
Trent Williams 141.9
Michael Onwenu 129.4
Laremy Tunsil 126.8
Joe Thuney 125.8
Frank Ragnow 125.5
Andrew Thomas 125.2
Seahawks
Damien Lewis 99.9
Austin Blythe 64.8
Abraham Lucas 63.6
Phil Haynes 43.0
Charles Cross 41.6
Gabe Jackson 7.8
College
Blake Freeland 163.4
Peter Skoronski 162.1
Alex Forsyth 153.6
Dawand Jones 151.5
Chandler Zavala 150.4
Luke Wypler 147.1
John Michael Schmitz 146.9
O'Cyrus Torrence 143.5
Joe Tippmann 143.3
Jaxson Kirkland 137.5
Broderick Jones 136.7
Ricky Stromberg 134.4
Olusegan Oluwatimi 132.7
Javon Cohen 131.6
Anton Harrison 130.9
Emil Ekiyor 130.7
That includes all the scores above 130.
The reason I did this was to see if any names rose the the surface to take a closer look at.
I have already received positive feedback from other sources on Chandler Zavala who played
at the Shrine bowl.
Combine testing will be telling. for IOL 40 times around 5.20 or better or SS around 4.70 or better.
For OT 40 times around 5.00 or better.
It's possible we paid Haynes $5 mil to get him on a one year deal because John found Haynes was going to get other offers for a multi-year deal. Why would John insist on a one year contract? Could it be that they intend to draft a guard and don't want to be tied past this year if the rookie wins the job? Clearly though, John doesn't want a "must have" to get in the way of fixing the front seven. He's also talked about the need to retain guys prior to free agency and Pete has been open about preferring his guys to unknowns. This has been their methodology for many years.