Breer: Seahawks offer to Geno Smith isn't in neighborhood of Daniel Jones, Giants
3/6/2023 Derek Carr picks a team and more signs that Geno will hit free agency: Seaside Joe 1463
The newsy-news on Monday morning is that Derek Carr is signing with the New Orleans Saints. While the media waits to report on the financial size of the four-year contract (which will probably result in people overrating the final number and forgetting that guarantees are what matters more than average annual salary) as a barometer for what Geno Smith could get, I think this note by Albert Breer could be what has more of an impact leading into Tuesday’s franchise tag deadline.
Breer notes that negotiations between the New York Giants and Daniel Jones are going more smoothly than media reports suggest and that the two sides are motivated to complete a deal in the next 24 hours. “The gap between the two isn’t the Gulf of Mexico,” says Breer.
(It makes me wonder what would be a small or huge gap in Breer’s map of contract negotiations. Sure, the Gulf of Mexico is bigger than a swimming pool. But it’s also a hell of a lot smaller than the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.)
But Breer also makes a small note at the bottom of the article regarding negotiations between the Seattle Seahawks and Geno:
The Seahawks’ offer to Geno Smith, right now at least, isn’t in the neighborhood of where the Giants’ negotiation with Jones. So it stands to reason that Smith should wait to see if the Seahawks tag him Tuesday, and if not maybe test the market.
I went through the timeline and history on Geno’s probable contract outcomes on Sunday and the short version of it is that for the last month we’ve been saying that the franchise tag is a non-starter. Though there are still people speculating that it is still an option—
Momentum continues to build from ESPN and now Breer that it isn’t. I mean, Pete and John keep basically saying that it isn’t, does that mean that any of the people who don’t want to hear it are actually listening to them?
I’m often left to wonder how much differently my career would be going if I just lied like Jordan Schultz (allegedly) and said that I had “sources” leaking information to me from one of the two parties. I’m right more often, but I don’t have any sources other than OvertheCap.com, a 14-year history of Pete Carroll and John Schneider running the organization in a very consistent manner, and common sense.
If I just said, “Sources tell me that the Seahawks will not give Geno Smith the franchise tag” though then suddenly Seaside Joe would be the hot Seattle media commodity that it deserves to be. What would it even matter if I’m wrong? People like Schultz and Josina Anderson are usually wrong, it doesn’t stop Pat McAfee from platforming them, does it?
Yes, the Derek Carr contract does matter. Make sure not to get too hyped over the final number and remember that only a year ago, Carr signed a “three-year, $120 million extension” with the Las Vegas Raiders.
The important language on the contract didn’t come out until a day later.
Update: Carr’s contract is a four-year, $150 million deal with $60 million guaranteed at signing, $70 million almost-fully guaranteed, and $100 million total guaranteed. It’s very close to the four-year, $152 million contract estimate that I laid out for Geno Smith almost a month ago.
I think the biggest news on Monday comes from Breer though. If the Giants have been offering Daniel Jones “between $35-$39 million” per season—and the Seahawks aren’t even in that neighborhood—then that says that Seattle is basically begging Geno and agent Chafie Fields to go talk to other teams.
If they aren’t in the neighborhood of $35 million, then they probably aren’t sitting around the $32 million franchise tag either, and that means that Geno has no reason to sign a deal with the Seahawks before Tuesday’s tag deadline or before the tampering period begins next Monday.
The report from Breer could essentially mean that Seattle has said that they won’t go above a certain number, that Geno is more than welcome back if nobody else beats it, but that they can’t simultaneously pay him like a modern starting quarterback and also pay the player who they might draft to replace him.
Carr’s number matters. But it probably matters more to Geno and Chafie than it does to Pete and John.
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I would very much like to see what Drew Lock can do with a year in the system under his belt. If I were running the Hawks I'd try very hard to get Lock to sign a 2 or 3 year contract, draft a QB this year and hopefully have Lock ball out this season.