The more I think about Geno and the millions of dollars, the more questions I have. If we look at career stats for Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6%), Mitch Trubiski (64.2%), Teddy Bridgewater (66.4%), Andy Dalton (62.5%) and Geno Smith (62.8%) they are all very similar, with Geno actually having a worse career TD/INT ratio than the others. Are any teams lining up to pay 30 to 40 million per season for any of these guys? Garoppolo went to a Super Bowl, Dalton had good years in Cincinnati, Bridgewater had good years for Carolina and Denver, Trubiski was passable in Chicago, and Smith had one good year with Seattle. If Geno gets his 32 million+ per season I'm very happy for him. I just hope it's not in Seattle.
If Drew signs a three year 45 million dollar deal 15 million per year then I will believe that the Seahawks believe in Drew. The problem with the tryout deal that Geno signed last year was the Seahawks didn’t presume success. If Drew is the Seahawks quarterback then tie him up for a few years. If the Seahawks are not sure then they are in a unique position to draft one to compete for the job next year with the wins and we have the best QB in our division on the cheapest salary.
I would say if you're trying to project a player's contract, go look at QBs who have a similar history and then start there with those contracts. You can go to Overthecap.com, go to positions, go to QBs, then find the players with similar history to Drew Lock, then use that to model a contract projection because this is how agents and GMs negotiate. You could probably start with Mitchell Trubisky.
I doubt Lock will sign a multi-year deal like that if he thinks he's the likely starting QB. Why would he after watching Geno raise his stock in the same role last year? It is in Lock's best interest to be on the market again this time next year.
Mar 6, 2023·edited Mar 6, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Over The Cap has what they think are the skinny on Carr's contract. $60 million guaranteed and just $17.1 million dead cap hit if released after 2 years.
I think this helps the Seahawks if they do want to sign Geno.
You nailed it in that article regarding the need for a middle tier QB salary model: under the current system, it just isn't worth it to pay him what he's "worth." (and yes, I intend the dissonance in the phrasing)
What is the evidence that the Seahawks are rolling with Lock? Pete said he would like get Lock resigned? Pete doesn’t talk badly about any player, so I don’t take that as ringing endorsement. The Geno was good so Lock will be good thinking just doesn’t make sense to me.
Pete and John have also said that they realize they are in a unique position. Why not trade up and get a QB. There will be better QB next year, that is what I heard last year. Even if there is will the Seahawks to be in position to draft one. Not trading up means that the plan is to hope the best QB falls to the Seahawks. The problem with Seattle fans is we have been spoiled into thinking that finding a QB is easy. If Geno is walking get the QB now.
Only Pete and his staff know how comfortable they feel about beginning the season with Lock at QB1. He and Geno are the only known commodities available and you have to think Pete wants that going into training camp. Letting Geno be a free agent suggests to me that they are both comfortable enough with Lock and willing to draft a QB that doesn't need to start day one.
I'll have a post later about some potential potions if and when Geno Smith is gone, certainly Lock is going to be there and frankly with all we know and can safely assume about negotiations so far, there's reason to believe that Drew Lock is already unofficially signed. They just wouldn't release that information before the Geno Smith news is done because of fairly obvious reasons.
The team's relationship with Lock is what allows them to both let Geno test his market and consider drafting a QB that won't have to play his rookie year. If Pete truly believes he had two QB1s on the roster last season, then Lock is a key piece of the offseason puzzle, even if he's not on the roster when all is said and done.
I don't understand Corbin Smith. He clearly doesn't have the maths. Or doesn't want to do them. But they are generally available, and they make the tag very, very unlikely, even putting aside Schneider and Carroll's hints....to write a column on this subject without even bringing them up strikes me as lazy, and unhelpful to his readers.
I used to follow him on Twitter and listen to Locked on Seahawks until I realized he seemed to be wrong about literally everything he projected was going to happen.
Last offseason he tweeted that the Seahawks should extend Poona Ford. I simply replied "The Seahawks should do not this" and he got very twitter-mad. That should tell Seahawks fans all they need to know about the information coming from someone; it's not that they want to get it right, they want to BE right. And that's not to say that ya know, he must have been wrong and I must have been right. It's the way someone reacts that gives you everything you need to know about their tempermant and ability to take in information or listen to opposing viewpoints. He could have even just not responded to the tweet, but to feel disrespected because someone disagreed? The info coming from there just isn't worth anyone's attention.
Rob is an acquired taste. Dogmatic and often dismissive. But he works his butt off on evaluations, and his stuff is thought out. Very much worth reading. But so are others ;)
Rob at least puts the work in. For all my disagreement on some of his stances, I will give thought to what he has to say on players. Corbin lost me after tweeting that he had a source that Baker Mayfield was close to signing with the Seahawks last offseason. That one was like 5 in a row he got wrong, and he claimed to have a source. I’d follow Josina Anderson if I wanted to read digital bird cage liner.
I largely stopped reading him for that reason - he still has moments of insight, but the need to pick fights with critics or even just people who disagree has really gotten old.
I would very much like to see what Drew Lock can do with a year in the system under his belt. If I were running the Hawks I'd try very hard to get Lock to sign a 2 or 3 year contract, draft a QB this year and hopefully have Lock ball out this season.
To all the free subscribers - this is the only Substack I pay for and it's well worth the price. If you love the Hawks and want to be part of a community that enjoys a logical and thoughtful approach to analysis of the Seahawks and NFL then upgrade to a paid subscription.
I'm glad it appears Seattle is not racing to overpay Geno. We're not a QB away so I don't care if we draft one. Just hit as many picks as possible and be smart.
Geno isn't worth 30 million. He's not worth 15 million. Let him go. Grab some other also ran, and plug him in. Easy as that. Don't waste a pick on this poor crop of quarterbacks.
Amen. If Geno gets more than 15 to 20 mill, the Hawks won 't have the cap space to improve the team and 2023 will be 2022 or worse. Let Geno walk and give Lock a chance. An improved D and O line will do wonders for their won lost record.
If you subscribe to him being worth what someone is willing to pay, I expect him to be worth either of those numbers. Certainly if he would sign for 15, he's already have been signed. I'm less optimistic that he's in a Seahawks uniform next season by the week. I'm okay with that, but just like when people talk about firing Pete, I don't have a better replacement in mind.
Rely willing to take a stance there Chuck! Lol. Plug anyone in. I think they can find someone at the dregs of free agency who would probably do as good, if not better than Geno.
And here I thought I was the guy who was low on Geno here! Wow. He definitely had a much better than replacement level season and really shined in moments. I also think he’s been playing pretty close to his ceiling. Which is fine, I just happen to think that’s not worth $30+ M. He will get his bag though.
The more I think about Geno and the millions of dollars, the more questions I have. If we look at career stats for Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6%), Mitch Trubiski (64.2%), Teddy Bridgewater (66.4%), Andy Dalton (62.5%) and Geno Smith (62.8%) they are all very similar, with Geno actually having a worse career TD/INT ratio than the others. Are any teams lining up to pay 30 to 40 million per season for any of these guys? Garoppolo went to a Super Bowl, Dalton had good years in Cincinnati, Bridgewater had good years for Carolina and Denver, Trubiski was passable in Chicago, and Smith had one good year with Seattle. If Geno gets his 32 million+ per season I'm very happy for him. I just hope it's not in Seattle.
Well that comment didn't age well . lol
I am thinking out loud. You make me think.
Never take orders from General Consensus.
If Drew signs a three year 45 million dollar deal 15 million per year then I will believe that the Seahawks believe in Drew. The problem with the tryout deal that Geno signed last year was the Seahawks didn’t presume success. If Drew is the Seahawks quarterback then tie him up for a few years. If the Seahawks are not sure then they are in a unique position to draft one to compete for the job next year with the wins and we have the best QB in our division on the cheapest salary.
I would say if you're trying to project a player's contract, go look at QBs who have a similar history and then start there with those contracts. You can go to Overthecap.com, go to positions, go to QBs, then find the players with similar history to Drew Lock, then use that to model a contract projection because this is how agents and GMs negotiate. You could probably start with Mitchell Trubisky.
I doubt Lock will sign a multi-year deal like that if he thinks he's the likely starting QB. Why would he after watching Geno raise his stock in the same role last year? It is in Lock's best interest to be on the market again this time next year.
Over The Cap has what they think are the skinny on Carr's contract. $60 million guaranteed and just $17.1 million dead cap hit if released after 2 years.
I think this helps the Seahawks if they do want to sign Geno.
https://overthecap.com/player/derek-carr/2975
23 years?
2 years. typo
You nailed it in that article regarding the need for a middle tier QB salary model: under the current system, it just isn't worth it to pay him what he's "worth." (and yes, I intend the dissonance in the phrasing)
What is the evidence that the Seahawks are rolling with Lock? Pete said he would like get Lock resigned? Pete doesn’t talk badly about any player, so I don’t take that as ringing endorsement. The Geno was good so Lock will be good thinking just doesn’t make sense to me.
Pete and John have also said that they realize they are in a unique position. Why not trade up and get a QB. There will be better QB next year, that is what I heard last year. Even if there is will the Seahawks to be in position to draft one. Not trading up means that the plan is to hope the best QB falls to the Seahawks. The problem with Seattle fans is we have been spoiled into thinking that finding a QB is easy. If Geno is walking get the QB now.
Re: Lock, are you responding to somebody?
Only Pete and his staff know how comfortable they feel about beginning the season with Lock at QB1. He and Geno are the only known commodities available and you have to think Pete wants that going into training camp. Letting Geno be a free agent suggests to me that they are both comfortable enough with Lock and willing to draft a QB that doesn't need to start day one.
You do have sources! It's called math and logic! You could always quote them as "anonymous" lol
I am thinking keeping Lock will be easier if Geno is gone. He would have an open door to the starting job
I'll have a post later about some potential potions if and when Geno Smith is gone, certainly Lock is going to be there and frankly with all we know and can safely assume about negotiations so far, there's reason to believe that Drew Lock is already unofficially signed. They just wouldn't release that information before the Geno Smith news is done because of fairly obvious reasons.
The team's relationship with Lock is what allows them to both let Geno test his market and consider drafting a QB that won't have to play his rookie year. If Pete truly believes he had two QB1s on the roster last season, then Lock is a key piece of the offseason puzzle, even if he's not on the roster when all is said and done.
Y E S ! ! !
I can't wait until we have new Seahawks to talk about!
Same, and we should be about a week out from that.
Thanks for the info. Let the fun begin!
Thank YOU!
I don't understand Corbin Smith. He clearly doesn't have the maths. Or doesn't want to do them. But they are generally available, and they make the tag very, very unlikely, even putting aside Schneider and Carroll's hints....to write a column on this subject without even bringing them up strikes me as lazy, and unhelpful to his readers.
The fact that his information source is "the general consensus" should tell us all we need to know
I used to follow him on Twitter and listen to Locked on Seahawks until I realized he seemed to be wrong about literally everything he projected was going to happen.
Last offseason he tweeted that the Seahawks should extend Poona Ford. I simply replied "The Seahawks should do not this" and he got very twitter-mad. That should tell Seahawks fans all they need to know about the information coming from someone; it's not that they want to get it right, they want to BE right. And that's not to say that ya know, he must have been wrong and I must have been right. It's the way someone reacts that gives you everything you need to know about their tempermant and ability to take in information or listen to opposing viewpoints. He could have even just not responded to the tweet, but to feel disrespected because someone disagreed? The info coming from there just isn't worth anyone's attention.
The exact same complaint is made about Rob Staton, though Rob's posts usually have plenty of redeeming quality, but he sure can't abide criticism.
Rob is an acquired taste. Dogmatic and often dismissive. But he works his butt off on evaluations, and his stuff is thought out. Very much worth reading. But so are others ;)
Rob at least puts the work in. For all my disagreement on some of his stances, I will give thought to what he has to say on players. Corbin lost me after tweeting that he had a source that Baker Mayfield was close to signing with the Seahawks last offseason. That one was like 5 in a row he got wrong, and he claimed to have a source. I’d follow Josina Anderson if I wanted to read digital bird cage liner.
I largely stopped reading him for that reason - he still has moments of insight, but the need to pick fights with critics or even just people who disagree has really gotten old.
"I don't understand Corbin Smith." Amen.
I only trust Corbin Dallas.....
I would very much like to see what Drew Lock can do with a year in the system under his belt. If I were running the Hawks I'd try very hard to get Lock to sign a 2 or 3 year contract, draft a QB this year and hopefully have Lock ball out this season.
Y E S ! ! !
To all the free subscribers - this is the only Substack I pay for and it's well worth the price. If you love the Hawks and want to be part of a community that enjoys a logical and thoughtful approach to analysis of the Seahawks and NFL then upgrade to a paid subscription.
I have gratitude for you!
Ditto
I'm glad it appears Seattle is not racing to overpay Geno. We're not a QB away so I don't care if we draft one. Just hit as many picks as possible and be smart.
I trust Pete and John with early picks and to not overspend, so let's hope for the best.
Geno isn't worth 30 million. He's not worth 15 million. Let him go. Grab some other also ran, and plug him in. Easy as that. Don't waste a pick on this poor crop of quarterbacks.
Amen. If Geno gets more than 15 to 20 mill, the Hawks won 't have the cap space to improve the team and 2023 will be 2022 or worse. Let Geno walk and give Lock a chance. An improved D and O line will do wonders for their won lost record.
If you subscribe to him being worth what someone is willing to pay, I expect him to be worth either of those numbers. Certainly if he would sign for 15, he's already have been signed. I'm less optimistic that he's in a Seahawks uniform next season by the week. I'm okay with that, but just like when people talk about firing Pete, I don't have a better replacement in mind.
Rely willing to take a stance there Chuck! Lol. Plug anyone in. I think they can find someone at the dregs of free agency who would probably do as good, if not better than Geno.
And here I thought I was the guy who was low on Geno here! Wow. He definitely had a much better than replacement level season and really shined in moments. I also think he’s been playing pretty close to his ceiling. Which is fine, I just happen to think that’s not worth $30+ M. He will get his bag though.