Don't take it out on Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Fantasy-fueled freakouts overlook rational explanations: Seaside Joe 1676

I think Geno Smith rarely gets past his first two reads—because I think it’s rare for quarterbacks to ever do that with regularity—and that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is usually not one of the first two reads. There you go, that’s about as good and simple of an explanation that I can start with for why Smith-Njigba hasn’t had any real stand out moments through the first four games.

We all KNEW before the season that he wasn’t going to be one of the Seahawks top two receivers and that Shane Waldron’s offense would also heavily incorporate Seattle’s tight ends in 12 and 13 personnel, which almost guarantees that JSN would come off the field in those situations.

It’s as though the more we learn, the more we forget.

Now I would hate-hate-hate to blindly defend a player when I can’t say for certain what the root cause is for his past performances or what the future will bring. That is the polar opposite of what I want Seaside Joe to bring into a sports media industry that now practically survives on people assuming that “I’m right, you’re wrong, I’ve always been right, you’ve always been wrong!”

I want to be the alternative option to you wonderful readers who are constantly getting THAT attitude from the media.

So I am cognizant of the fact that I said many times in this newsletter that I believe that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a star receiver and that Seattle stole a top-10 worthy prospect at 20th overall. If I defend JSN’s four-game start out of bias—12 catches on 20 targets with 62 yards and two first downs—then I am doing you the same disservice as almost every other Seahawks content creator.

I can’t say that JSN will become X, Y, or Z because if the draft has taught us anything, it’s that: “The more I know, the more I realize I know nothing”

I BELIEVE in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I don’t KNOW if Jaxon Smith-Njigba will ever be as valuable in the NFL as he was in college. Instead, what do I know? What can I say with certainty?

I can say that nothing about the first four games is cause for concern.

I’ll now go over some of those reasons to be patient with JSN, but first if you haven’t signed up for Seaside Joe yet, please do: It’s been a slow start to the season for new subscriptions but we keep on chugging with 8-10 posts per week so consider upgrading to Regular Joes or Super Joes today! Thanks!

JSN is back at Ohio State in 2020

“Sometimes the ball doesn’t go your way based on things that are totally out of your control” - Shane Waldron when asked about JSN last week.

As a true freshman at Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba earned his way up to being the number four receiver behind future first round picks Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams. We practically gloss over the fact that JSN had to beat out really talented players to be in that position (including Julian Fleming, an even higher ranked recruit in the same class) because he only had 10 catches for 49 yards (shortened 8-game year) that season.

But that’s a really amazing accomplishment for an 18-year-old at Ohio State!

Had Smith-Njigba taken on a less challenging college program assignment, he could have been one of the country’s most productive receivers as a freshman. Instead, he wanted to be challenged to be the best player at the best program for receivers and he had impressed Wilson and Olave enough for them both to say that he was the best player in the group.

It’s almost an identical situation with Seattle.

JSN is a 21-year-old going against NFL competition for the first time—and playing live games again after missing almost all of 2022—we the selfish, we the impatient, we the watchers ask, “Why not NOW?”

Maybe I’m also less impatient because I stopped playing fantasy football over ten years ago, so I didn’t project some impractical goals on rookies based on my desire to personally win something. I think that also has some impact on how players are treated on social media based on their box score production, even when they had never played in the league before.

Most plays will never get to Jaxon Smith-Njigba

But whereas JSN could have gone to a team like the Ravens, could have gone to a team like the Patriots, could have gone to a team like the Titans, situations in which the offensive coordinator would design more plays for him to be the first or second read…instead, he goes to a team with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

I really like Zay Flowers, he was my favorite receiver before the draft, so I’m not surprised that he has 24 catches for 244 yards already. But his situation is also way more ideal for a receiver who wants to put up numbers than JSN’s because Flowers is BY FAR Baltimore’s best wide receiver: His 29 targets are 17 more targets than Nelson Agholor, while Rashod Bateman (nine targets in three games) and Odell Beckham Jr (seven targets in two games) are hurt once again.

Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s favorite target already in large part due to the fact that his only other viable option is Mark Andrews and even he only has 18 targets. If the Ravens had Metcalf and Lockett, do you think Flowers would still have 29 targets?

The same can be said for Puka Nacua on the L.A. Rams. Without taking anything away from what Nacua has managed to accomplish as a record-setting rookie (NFL-best 39 catches, to go with 501 yards), he would not be in this position if not for Cooper Kupp missing the last two months and playing in an offense with Matthew Stafford as the quarterback and Sean McVay as the play caller.

It’s like being an actor cast in your breakout role in which the director is Martin Scorsese and the lead is Leonardo DiCaprio. Just don’t trip over the set while the cameras are rolling and you should be on Entertainment Tonight in no time!

Metcalf is off to a phenomenal start, catching 18 of 23 targets for 268 yards and two touchdowns. Should the Seahawks call less plays for him? No!

Lockett has a team-high 27 targets and he’s caught 17 of them for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Nobody is going to have more of Geno’s trust than the receiver who has come through for the team so many times since 2015. Should he have less opportunities? No!

That’s 50 throws out of Seattle’s 129 attempts, a target share of 38.7%.

Meanwhile, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly have combined for 26 targets, which chunks out another 20.1% of the pass attempts. The Seahawks like to run 12 and 13 personnel, in part because the tight ends are talented, in part because Seattle has had to get more creative without Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, and that cuts into JSN’s playing time significantly.

Through four games—which he certainly didn’t have to participate in given that he had WRIST SURGERY a few weeks before the start of the season—Smith-Njigba has played in 52% of the team’s offensive snaps.

What that means is that JSN has roughly half the amount of time as someone like Flowers or Nacua in order to do the same amount that would satisfy impatient fans who are wondering why he isn’t already averaging at least 50 yards per game.

What I THINK is happening is that most of Waldron’s passing plays in 11 personnel are designed for Geno to look at Metcalf or Lockett with his first two reads and that those are good players who he trusts, so the buck kind of stops there. Why do I think this?

The throws to JSN imply a lack of opportunities from the other plays

We’ve all seen it throughout the four games: Geno Smith takes the snap and immediately throws the ball to Smith-Njigba, who is usually within a yard of the line of scrimmage. Either it’s a designed receiver screen or something behind the LOS or it’s a QB rollout with JSN maybe two yards downfield.

JSN’s average depth of target on 20 throws is…1.3 yards!

What that should tell us is that in order for Smith-Njigba to average 10 yards per catch based on these opportunities, he would need to average 8.7 yards AFTER the catch.

There are only three receivers in the NFL this season who average at least eight yards after the catch per reception: Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, and Deebo Samuel. Collins and Waddle have an average depth of target of 12 and 10.8, respectively, while Samuels is at 7.1.

These players are being given opportunities downfield and then creating more yards after the catch, they aren’t being put in a no-win position by having the ball delivered to them behind or at the line of scrimmage with 11 defensive players between them and the first down marker. Essentially, it’s like the Seahawks are treating JSN as if he’s a running back instead of as a slot receiver.

“Hey, we need to get JSN the ball.”

“Okay, call a play for him.”

“Okay, here’s a play that will for sure go to JSN" (Which most likely is going to be one of those immediate routes that isn’t downfield.)

Which I think is still 100% perfectly fine, JSN is a “victim” of circumstance and Seattle doesn’t make the mistake of drafting players for immediate needs. There isn’t someone to be mad at every time a player doesn’t get you 20 fantasy points.

The Seahawks drafted Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 5 and 20 because they evaluated them as the two best football players at those positions and we’ve seen how Witherspoon has not only fulfilled that belief, he’s capatilized on opportunities that were totally out of his control: The fact that the Seahawks needed cornerback help right away due to injuries and poor play by Mike Jackson.

Rob Staton recently said, “What’s the point of using a first round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba if you have no idea what to do with him?”

Noting the fact that the Seahawks have a history of using first round picks on offensive weapons that never materialized as productive players for Seattle (Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham, Rashaad Penny…I know, “(this guy) wasn’t that bad, he was just injured!”), I can’t say that it’s fair to determine this early in the season and JSN’s career that the team “doesn’t know what to do” with him.

There’s nothing rational, reasonable, or grounded in that assessment, it just feels a little bit like whining.

The Seahawks would probably argue “We are fourth in points per drive and outside of the second half against the Rams, have played very close to being the offense we want to be right now.” There is also probably some validity to the argument that as they’re learning their own offense, they will change it and make adjustments in November, December, and January.

Are all good receivers good right away?

Jaylen Waddle’s first eight games: 48 catches on 68 targets for 413 yards, 6.07 yards per target

Is that the Waddle we now call one of the top-10 receivers in football? Someone who averaged 6 yards per target to start his career?

Nico Collins first 11 games: 25 catches on 44 targets for 311 yards, 7.07 yards per target

Collins is one of the NFL’s leading receivers to start this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s first three games: 6 catches on 10 targets for 43 yards, 4.3 yards per target

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s first 11 games: 39 catches on 52 targets for 352 yards, 6.77 yards per target

St. Brown didn’t catch his first touchdown until his 12th career game.

Brandon Aiyuk’s first six games: 14 catches on 25 targets for 165 yards, 6.6 yards per target

Deebo Samuel’s first seven games: 22 catches on 32 targets for 227 yards, 7.09 yards per target

Neither of the 49ers star receivers were dramatically good to start their careers.

Michael Pittman’s first five games: 14 catches on 20 targets for 135 yards, 6.75 yards per target

Diontae Johnson’s first 12 games: 36 catches on 61 targets for 423 yards, 6.9 yards per target

A.J. Brown’s career games 2-10: 2.5 catches and 38 yards per game, 58% catch rate

It’s a little bit disappointing to feel like we had the opportunity to come so far in understanding at this point that players aren’t finished products at the start of their careers AND that offenses and gameplans aren’t set in stone from Week 1 to Week 18.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is:

• 21 years old

• The number three receiver on the offense

• Playing for a team that uses three receivers less often than most

• Coming off of a season lost due to injury

• Coming off of wrist surgery

• A rookie

• Not hurting the offense

• Drafted for a franchise, not for a team

That last part is the most important.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was an opportunity to have a ready-set offense in 2024 and beyond

A lot of the worst teams in the NFL are teams that don’t have talent at wide receiver and what we should all know by now is that good receivers are expensive: Either you draft them in the first round or you trade first round picks and pay them, like Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs.

“No, there are exceptions!”

Cool, we’re moving on…

The Giants have no receivers. The Panthers have no receivers. The Patriots have no receivers. The Bears have one receiver and he came over in a trade, but the Bears had no receivers last season and they had the worst record in the NFL. Chicago could still have the worst record in part because of no talent after D.J. Moore. These are bad teams with bad offenses. It’s important for teams to take their shots at landing weapons and you’re going to miss sometimes. That’s just reality.

You can’t be afraid to take the shot.

Tyler Lockett is one of the oldest starting receivers in the NFL and he’s going to cost $27 million next season. Dee Eskridge never plays and is not reliable. Seattle is thinking long-term with their picks and just as nobody has complained yet about Derick Hall—who was drafted only 17 spots after JSN—then why should anyone be voicing their concerns about JSN?

That feels like overrating the term “first round pick”. That feels like a fantasy football thing. That feels like being mad at the TV: We see JSN’s lack of production because we’re following the football when he gets a target. We don’t see it with Hall or someone like that because when he’s blocked out of the play (and by the way he’s older, more experienced, and in more ideal circumstances) he’s just out of the play.

We’re not screaming over Derick Hall. Why are we screamin over JSN? Especially when the rational part of our brains know…this is nothing to be concerned about yet.

Can I say what Jaxon Smith-Njigba or his role in the offense will become? No. That’s just as much of a cause for optimism as it is for concern. Why choose to be worried when you don’t have to choose at all?

I say, just wait and see.