John Schneider show 2/20: Key takeaways

Seahawks actually do value guards, says Seattle GM John Schneider, but they're hard to find

John Schneider appeared on Seattle Sports for The John Schneider Show on Thursday. Here are key takeaways.

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Will learn a lot about free agents at the combine

The NFL recently announced an estimated salary cap around $280 million for 2025, for the Seahawks that’s about $7 million more than previously expected, and Schneider was asked if that means that Seattle can keep certain players that they thought they might lose. Schneider says…Maybe.

“We usually find that out at the combine,” said Schneider, noting that he’s not sure yet what certain players expect to make. Once he knows how much they want, then he can decide if that fits within the Seahawks budget.

A good example of what he’s talking about is probably Damien Lewis.

It would make sense that Seattle wanted to keep Lewis in 2024, but when the Panthers were ready to pay him $13.25 million per season (probably too much for an adequate starting right guard) that’s when Schneider knew that the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to keep Lewis. If they had kept Lewis, it would mean not keeping certain other player(s).

“If we thought Player X was going to make $8 million, but then we find out at the combine that he’s only going to make $4 million,” then Schneider might be able to re-sign a player he thought was going to leave. The player’s agent is at the combine to find out what he’s worth and that’s also where a player like Geno Smith — a 2023 free agent who surprisingly only got $25 million per year on his next contract — probably ended up going back to Seattle because his value was at the bottom of the veteran QB market.

“Every million dollars is huge,” says Schneider, which is why we need to be aware not just of the Seahawks big decisions, but also the so-called small ones like do they keep a player like Johnathan Hankins or not?

“If that (hypothetical) person wants to make $10 million, then we’re out of that.”

Schneider noted that the Seahawks were not too surprised by the estimated 2025 salary cap and says they used to have a mole on the staff who could basically tip them off ahead of time what the exact cap was going to be before it was announced. Presumably, Seattle no longer has that mole.

“We had some insider stuff for a couple of years.”

Doesn’t regret “over-drafted and overpaid” comment

The best question that Wyman and Bob asked Schneider was whether or not 2024 made Schneider re-think the viral quote from last year when he said that guards are “over-drafted and overpaid”, but the GM took it as a chance to clarify what he meant.

“It’s not a level of importance, (guard) is extremely mportant and highly valued,” said Schneider, “but we still to this day, because of the death of talent at the position, will overpay and overdraft guards.”

It’s not that Schneider is doubling down on his statement, it’s that he thinks that guard has a supply and demand problem and that the Seahawks hope to avoid bad values at any position. It just so happens that because there are so few great guards that many of the bad values in the league are at guard, in his opinion. But he goes onto say that despite that, the Seahawks have overpaid for guards in the past (certainly not in 2024 though) and will probably do it in the future.

“We’ve been guilty of it and we will be guilty of it in the future as well. It’s based on a level of talent, guard is what everybody’s looking for. Look at the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. That a was a rough go for those guys. There’s about 2 or 3 teams that have a really good offensive line, college and pros. The philosophy is not that we’re not going to overpay and we probably will because we have to. But you have to be smart with those decisions.”

It’s interesting that Schneider specifically mentions the Chiefs having a problem at guard given that the top free agent on the market is Kansas City guard Trey Smith, the player that fans of the Seahawks (and most teams) want to see signed. In fact, Smith will be the ultimate example of guards being overpaid.

The Panthers overpaid guards Lewis and Robert Hunt in 2024, but they did show significant improvement at their biggest area of weakness in 2023. However, it didn’t come without a price: The Panthers went from having a good defense to the worst defense in the NFL, including having to trade Brian Burns and lose Frankie Luvu in free agency.

These are the costs that Schneider is referring to when he says that guards are overpaid and because of that, Seattle would have to make sacrifices to get the upgrades at the position that everyone wants.

“I would say that the statement is really, what’s the difference? Are we going to overpay a guard and lose a defensive tackle? No, were going to get the player we think is the better talent. It’s the same in the draft. Should you draft a worse player because he plays a certain position?”

“It’s supply and demand. It’s never a level of-it’s not important-that’s not our philosophy.”

Schneider adds that he doesn’t think that all guards are the same or anything. Only that the Seahawks have to stick to their rules on who the best values are and that unfortunately because there are so few good available offensive linemen, that means Seattle will usually not get the best guards in the draft or free agency.

“They’ll grade a guy as a solid starter or a solid backup but then he is going to be paid like a difference maker, which is two grades up.”

To me this is where a guy like Lewis, who is at best a solid starter, got paid like a difference maker.

Schneider also says that he’s most interested in the trenches when he’s watching a game live because that’s the most important thing.

“When I watch a game, I watch our offensive line and defensive line. That’s what I watch. I don’t watch the QBs feet. Whats happening up front? I watch that way live. That’s whats important because if that’s not going to whelm, nothing else is going to whelm.”

Rick Dennison and focus on OL coaches

Building off of that line of thought, Schneider also commented on recent coaching hires like Rick Dennison and Justin Outten, mentioning how important it is that they have an OL focus.

“Development, acquisition, identification (of players) is very important but being able to develop people and work with individuals who can help develop skills and help their deficiencies. Rick Dennison (nickname Rico) and Justin Outten, he’s a former center. Offensive line emphasis really. John Benton too, really strong teachers for the offensive line.”

It sounds like the Seahawks are hoping that their new offensive coaching staff can do more with the players that Seattle has already invested in than the previous staff, rather than expecting to improve the position externally.

Avoided saying too much about Geno Smith

So this is important too…

Bob told Schneider that Geno Smith and DK Metcalf are “polarizing” players and asked him if he knew that, as well as if he was satisfied with how they played in 2024. I wouldn’t over-read into this, but Schneider kind of didn’t say anything, in my opinion. Which says something.

“I’m not aware of how polarizing they are. The QB is always the most polarizing. DK is so talented and explosive, he’s on TV and commercials. I could see that (him being polarizing). Yeah they lived up to my expectations. DK was injured. We just struggled offensively there for a minute and he should have gotten more targets. Geno playing through the injury at the end, he really sucked it up.”

OK?

I mean, Schneider didn’t totally skirt the question about Geno, but he also didn’t go beyond saying that Geno was able to “suck it up” and play through an injury. But does Schneider really not know that fans are split on how important Geno is to keep around for 2025 and beyond?

I find it hard to believe that Schneider doesn’t know that we’re all waiting to find out how committed the Seahawks are willing to be to Geno Smith and DK Metcalf.

Analytics - Rashaad Penny story

Schneider was asked about analytics and the draft, but I didn’t find that part to be very enlightening or interesting, other than Schneider’s mention of scouting Rashaad Penny.

He said that in 2018 he came away not that impressed with Penny “I had him graded down a little bit” but the scouting department told him that Penny was elite after contact. “Patrick the analytics guys said he was the number one running back on our board after contact.”

Schneider said he disagreed with that, but decided to go back and watch again with those numbers in mind.

“You can have an opinion going in based on level of competition and have a preconceived notion before you actually study him. Analytics helped me look at a certain aspect of Penny that I wouldn’t have noticed otherwise.”

Ummm, okay…but is this some sort of lowkey jab at Patrick? Did Schneider forget that Rashaad Penny goes down as one of the worst picks of recent Seattle first rounders? Setting aside all the other picks the Seahawks could have made at other positions (some of them winning two MVPs), Seattle chose Penny over Nick Chubb!

I really found that to be a strange, strange flex for the value of analytics. Then again, Schneider isn’t aware that Geno is polarizing.