JSN could lead Seahawks in every rec category

Question Everything, Week 3: Seaside Joe 2027

“By the time you figure out that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a breakout season, it’s already too late.” - Seaside Joe

After the Seahawks picked JSN with the 20th overall selection in the 2023 draft, making him the first receiver off the board last year, I highlighted his game-to-game production at Ohio State in the same way that I did with Kenneth Walker III the previous summer. By the end of both of those runs, I had convinced myself that Seattle had drafted someone who would become the focal point of their offense and an NFL star, noting at the end of JSN’s that “I had a feeling…” about his future.

You don’t have to work in the Eagles analytics department to figure out that highly drafted players often become good players in the league, but a lot of first round receivers and second round running backs are not doing so hot. Prior to Sunday, JSN was one of those receivers not producing up to the level expected of the first receiver off of the board.

Now tied (with five other players) for the fifth-most catches through two games, JSN is starting to feel like Geno Smith’s most-likely player to feed targets to on a consistent basis when the Seahawks need to gain chunk plays to move down the field. This latest breakdown by The Legion of 12s from JSN’s 12-catch, 117-yard game against the Patriots highlights how his versatility as both a potentially great slot and a capable outside receiver could make Smith-Njigba the Seahawks most complete receiver this season:

“Yards after the catch is what it takes to be a truly great slot receiver. There are plenty of guys who are quick and get open, but the best slot receivers have the run after the catch skills to turn this four-yard completion into a chunk play and that is what JSN showed right here, which makes me really confident that he will continue to be a major piece of this offense throughout the rest of the season.”

“I think JSN is on his way to being a great slot receiver, but in the NFL he has shown that he can actually be even more than just a slot receiver…JSN is running a deep dig route to attack the middle of the field. These are the two defenders that are going to be an issue for JSN on this route. The only window Geno is going to have is right in between them and Njigba understands that instead of coming out of his break full speed, he settles down in this window to give Geno time. Even though JSN is in year two, this is a veteran move.”

Some other numbers and opinions on JSN:

According to this tweet (with film) by Adam Levitan, out of 76 dropbacks by Geno, JSN has run 69 routes, which is seven more than Tyler Lockett has run. JSN’s average depth of target on Sunday was 10.6 yards, which means he was getting more downfield throws than usual.

Mike Macdonald said after the game that JSN has “incredible hands”, that he excels on “all the underneath stuff” but is an “underrated deep threat”, and that he’s a player that the Seahawks are “gonna be relying on moving forward, he’s a great player.”

From Michael O’Hara, JSN’s route participation is up 8% from last season, his target share is up 10%, his average depth of target is up 3.4 yards, his air yards share is up 20%, and his targets per route is up as well.

John Boyle notes that JSN is the first Seahawks receiver not named DK Metcalf or Lockett to have 100 yards since Doug Baldwin in 2018.

Here is Mad Dog Russo calling him “Jaxon Smith-Nagajoooba”.

At Ohio State, Smith-Njigba was a good recruit, but he wasn’t the best recruit in his class and he wasn’t even the best receiver recruit in his class at Ohio State, as that title belonged to Julian Fleming. Though he barely showed up on the field during his freshman season, teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave knew from practice that JSN had the talent to be better than both of them and would say so in interviews.

Following a freshman season with only 49 yards, JSN had two catches for 12 yards in Week 1 of year two (exact same numbers he had in Week 1 this year), and then broke out for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Oregon Ducks in Week 2. JSN went back into hibernation for a month, but erupted in the last eight games to catch 77 passes for 1,257 yards in those contests alone, finishing with 1,606 yards, an Ohio State school record.

JSN is the type of player who will lull you into a false sense of security, only to pounce for 347 yards in the Rose Bowl because the other team makes the mistake of overlooking him to focus on his bigger-name teammates. It’s essentially the exact same situation with DK and Lockett, so the only thing that would surprise me about JSN having 347 yards in the Rose Bowl this year would be “How did the Seahawks get invited to the Rose Bowl?”

Every week I take questions from Seaside Joe’s founding members “Super Joes” subscribers. If you want to get in on the next one, upgrade to Super Joes at a prorated annual rate right now.

Here is Week 3’s “Question Everything” segment.

zezinhom400: Has run defense typically been the soft underbelly of MacDonald defenses? I’m remembering that Michigan State game…

Here is the Kenneth Walker vs. Mike Macdonald game review I wrote earlier this year, for anyone who missed it. (Actually since we’re on both subjects today, JSN had 11 catches for 127 yards against Macdonald’s Michigan defense in 2021.)

As to Macdonald’s run defense, here is what All_22 wrote about it when I interviewed him earlier this year:

The more a team is able to remain balanced and actually generate Rushing yards, the less dominant/confusing/daunting the Macdonald Defense can be. Avoiding those 2nd and 8/3rd and 6 situations is the Offense’s most important goal against a Macdonald Defense, in my observation.

The Rams 11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) Run gamewas a bad matchup for the Ravens Defense, which out of a Nickel look had difficulty at times stopping/slowing down the Run game in 2022 and 2023. The compressed formations from 11 Personnel have often given Macdonald’s Defense trouble, this pattern held true against the Rams.

Is the 11 Personnel Run game an absolute “weakness” in Macdonald’s scheme? While I cannot put it that way, there is significant film of his Defense being less dominant against plays that follow this flow chart:

11 Personnel —--> Compressed formation —----> Run play

That’s a sampling of what he said, there is obviously many more wrinkles to it, but I think that gives us a good idea of what types of runs bother Macdonald and why. As to the stats, I wouldn’t even bother using Michigan’s stats for anything because it doesn’t help us any when the Wolverines are obviously going to kick ass against lowly teams, of which their schedule is at least half-full of. That’s the nature of the college talent disparity. I can say that needing to beat Georgia in the Orange Bowl that year, the Bulldogs rushed for 190 yards to Michigan’s 91.

As the Ravens defensive coordinator in 2022, Macdonald’s defense actually finished third against the run, a number significantly helped by trading for Roquan Smith midseason; however, it’s worth noting that the Ravens were severely gashed by the run in the final month of the season at a time when their offense had completely stalled out due to Lamar Jackson’s injuries.

Then in 2023, the Ravens finished first in a lot of key defensive categories, but 14th in rushing yards allowed and 25th in yards per carry allowed. However, a lot of those yards did come during games that Baltimore won, sometimes by a lot, so it could have been of relatively little concern to Macdonald at the time.

Part of the reason that Seattle has missed a lot of tackles in the first two games is that these are the first two games. When you don’t play in the preseason and you don’t get many opportunities to warm up as a tackler, many players will struggle to properly do so in the early part of the regular season. Hopefully as the Seahawks get better at tackling, they’ll get better at run defense.

Scott M: Any chance we could work out a deal to swap Dre’Mont Jones for (disgruntled Jets edge rusher) Haason Reddick? What would money look like and could it even be pulled off from a financial standpoint?

Though not impossible, it’s difficult for anyone to answer the question of what the financials would look like because Haason Reddick has made it clear that he’s not going to play for any team without a new contract. How much money does he want? Apparently more than the Jets or Eagles were willing to pay because Reddick is still holding out for money. For those who don’t know, Reddick was traded to the Jets and he has refused to show up without a new contract because he’s entering the final year of his deal and the 30-year-old wants financial security beyond this season. I’m going to set aside anything else about Reddick because of the low odds that he will ever play for the Seahawks anyway.

There is, however, some argument to be made that the Jets would love to have Dre’Mont Jones right now. New York jost lost 2022 first round edge rusher Jermaine Johnson for the season and without Reddick in the fold they have little else to stand on. Because Seattle restructured Jones’ contract, any team could afford his $1 million base salary. I don’t think the Seahawks would get anything of value for Jones, but perhaps they’ll get to the point where they just want to give his snaps to other players.

If the Seahawks could add Reddick for the rest of the season without any complications, that would be great for them. Because he isn’t playing for any team without a new contract, Seattle won’t (and probably shouldn’t) entertain any trade for him. From what I’ve seen and heard this year, there’s no reason for a Macdonald defense to overpay a guy who primarily does one thing: Get to the QB. His scheme is supposed to get to the QB on its own.

Grant: What should we expect from the returns of Pharaoh Brown and Uchenna Nwosu? Will either player bring something unique that allows the coordinators to show us new looks, or are they just different/better versions of what we've seen in the first two weeks?

I would rather see Nwosu than Jones, that’s for sure. A Boye Mafe-Nwosu-Derick Hall-Trevis Gipson group should be better than the one with Jones instead of Nwosu. Boye Mafe is obviously the guy getting the most production in the new defense, ranking top-5 in most pass rushing categories so far:

I don’t necessarily see Nwosu being better than Mafe. But he’s been better than Dre’Mont Jones for the last few years at least, I think that’s where Seattle might have some advantage but again, Nwosu isn’t getting ANY live reps. How long will it take him to get up to speed?

Theoretically, Pharaoh Brown would be a better version of A.J. Barner but probably more important would be if Brown could steal some snaps away from Noah Fant. If Fant isn’t going to be utilized as a receiver, why then take your best blocking tight end off of the field? I guarantee that Brown could have caught three passes in the first two games too.

Flurb: Alfred Hitchcock-grade suspense whenever ‘Hawks face a backup QB, do we have any assurance that ‘Fins haven’t called Colt McCoy? A lesser scribe mentioned DJ Dallas’ Dynamic Dash - any other ex-Hawks in the news?

I think the reason that we associate “the Seahawks with losing to backup QBs” is that any team that wins fewer than 11 or 12 games is going to end up losing to 7+ teams and a lot of teams need to turn to their backup QB during the season. It’s just more of a math equation than anything else and while Seattle hasn’t been terrible since 2009, they haven’t been great in almost a decade. Not-great teams will lose to Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton sometimes because of the other 21 starters.

When I think of the answer to the question, “What makes the Dolphins good?”, I have never thought of Tua Tagovailoa. If they have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Mike McDaniel calling plays, they’re good.

I think DeeJay Dallas being the first guy to have a return touchdown under the new kickoff rules is what has scared teams into touchbacks.

“Former Seahawks in the news?” The only thing that comes to mind is Dave Canales taking the credit and blame for benching Bryce Young. Maybe the most surprising statistic is that Mario Edwards has a sack in each of the first two games with the Texans. Any Seasiders out there have other ones?

Eduardo: I saw a week 1 stat that had the Seahawks run no coverage more than 21% and a total of about 4/5 coverages 10-17% of the time. I say this because I thought Tyrice Knight played well in relief for Baker, but wonder if its more of a learning curve to play in and out of so many coverages more than anything else that concerns this coaching staff. Is THAT a fair assessment or is it something else(Baker's play/etc.) that keeps Mike McD from inserting Knight full time?

As to coverages, here’s a tweet by Football Insights that shows the coverage rates through two weeks. The Seahawks have run Cover-1 on 32% of plays apparently, which ranks as the sixth-most in the league thus far. If your linked stat is true, and this stat is true, clearly what is needed is a larger sample size before we can determine “What Mike McD is going to do in Seattle”.

As to Tyrice Knight and what would lead to more playing time, I think only Seahawks coaches and Knight have the answers to that. Playing linebacker in the NFL is extremely difficult to do at a level that won’t lead to potential game-breaking mistakes and I was not expecting a fourth round rookie linebacker to be playing a lot this season, or in the first month of his rookie season. If Knight plays significant snaps this year, it’s either really good news…or really bad news.

JohnnyLondon: Discounting anyone currently sat on their couch - who might perceivably be out there to replace Tomlinson? Probably a terrible question, but it’s the most overriding concern for me.

Christian Haynes. Sataoa Laumea. Michael Jerrell. George Fant. McClendon Curtis. In other words, probably an underwhelming name that is already on the roster. Teams don’t typically trade away starting caliber guards in the middle of the season nor are there any in free agency. I hate to say that we could be having this same talk in 12 months, but given Seattle’s history, we could be having this same talk in 12 months.

GlassMonkey: How many carries do you expect the 3rd running back to get on offense next week vs. Miami and why do you think this is? Do you expect a reduction in counter runs for Charbonnet going forward?

The Seahawks gave 8 carries to Zach Charbonnet in Week 1 and zero carries to Kenny McIntosh in Week 2, and those were the backup running backs, so probably zero carries to a third running back in Week 3. If Walker is healthy, I see no reason to take him off the field, barring the usual rest for about 30% of the snaps. Those would go to Charbonnet, I can’t imagine he’s done anything to piss off the coaches and as a receiver he only has 32 fewer yards than Lockett. If Walker can’t start, the coaches might give a few touches to McIntosh, I wouldn’t expect a lot or to see George Holani.

I did see some things at odds as far as Charbonnet’s pass pro: There are some clips out there of Charbonnet picking up a blitz, but then PFF’s overall take was that he was terrible in pass pro. What’s the truth? That’s probably what determines how much more McIntosh or Holani play this week if Walker is out. I don’t really blame Charbonnet for not being able to run against New England’s front.

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Rusty: The main question I have is….was I the only one that had no clue Tyrice Knight played 65% of the defensive snaps? Was he the problem on TE passes or was it more of a “whole defense” issue? For a while it brought back bad memories.

I don’t think it’s usually “one player had a good game, so that means that one player on the other side had a bad game.” Hunter Henry caught six passes for 63 yards basically just in the first quarter alone, then he had a 35-yard catch in the middle of the second quarter. In the final 40 minutes of the game and overtime though, Henry had one catch on four targets for 11 yards.

Were the Seahawks “bad against tight ends” in Week 2? I think the Patriots, the worst WR room in the NFL, planned all week to try and get a lead with Hunter Henry and hope their defense could hold it. It almost worked, but as soon as Macdonald made the proper adjustments for Henry, New England had no other answers in the passing game.

It was such a shutdown of the Patriots offense in the second half actually that I would be surprised if New England wins more than six games this year unless Drake Maye replaces Jacoby Brissett and turns into C.J. Stroud. They have such a dearth of talent at receiver and tight end that their current ranking of 29th in passing yards and 28th in Y/A is probably generous.

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