Seahawks likely to face rookie QB Bo Nix in Week 1

Bo Nix could have his third Seattle showdown in less than a year: Seaside Joe 1982

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix must be aware that he’s already the most unusual QB6 in NFL draft history. He was the 12th overall pick—usually a place you might find QB2 or QB3, and sometimes QB1—and while that alone would not make it surprising that a quarterback picked that high might start for his team in Week 1, the fact that five other quarterbacks in his same class were ranked above him does make it very surprising that Nix could start against the Seattle Seahawks in a month.

What should we make of this?

Here is every QB6 since 2017 and their draft position:

2017: C.J. Beathard, 49ers, pick 3.104

2018: Mason Rudolph, Steelers, pick 3.76

2019: Ryan Finley, Bengals, pick 4.104

2020: Jacob Eason, Colts, pick 4.122

2021: Kyle Trask, Bucs, pick 2.64

2022: Sam Howell, Moons, pick 5.144

2023: Jake Haener, Saints, pick 4.127

Yes, there is a non-zero chance that if something keeps Geno Smith from being available for the entire Week 1 game that the highest-drafted QB6 of all-time could be going against one of the lowest-drafted QB6s of all-time, Sam Howell.

And while Howell’s place as QB6 in the 2022 draft is a byproduct of the 2022 class being considered one of the worst quarterbacks classes of all-time, I think Nix’s placement here has more to do with team desperation. I don’t mean to put down Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix, all of whom could be first round picks in any year, but didn’t most of us get the feeling that teams were just a little bit nervous this year and that they felt they needed to act now? There was a noticeable drop-off between Nix and QB7, plus a negative perception of the 2025 QB class, drawing some comparisons to 2022.

It’s hard to go back to that place we were living in before the draft, but let’s try to keep in mind that Penix, McCarthy, and especially Nix were all considered day 2 “locks” early in the draft cycle because nobody was talking about any of them as first round picks for the majority of their college careers. Penix and McCarthy both saw a considerable bump from playing in the national championship against one another to doing everything we should have expected them to do at the combine (“Penix arm!” “McCarthy interview!”), but Nix was still considered more of a day 2 lock even up until the moment Denver made the pick.

I don’t think it was until the Falcons drafted Penix that we started to realize, “Oh this class is going to be different.” (And that’s also when I realized that Byron Murphy II might actually drop to the Seahawks, so thank you desperate teams.)

The average draft position of QB6 between 2017-2023: 106th overall

Bo Nix: 12th overall

The typical QB6 is on the cusp of the 3rd-4th round and a really highly-drafted QB6 might be a mid-to-late second round pick, but the Broncos took Nix—and seemed as excited about it as if he was first or second overall—in the same draft position that has given us Deshaun Watson and basically Ben Roethlisberger (11th overall), both of whom were QB3 in their respective classes.

Just to give you some more context here on other QB6 quarterbacks:

Jake Haener, who was drafted almost 60 picks after Hendon Hooker went 68th, might be cut from the Saints before his second season as he’s in a competition with rookie fifth round pick Spencer Rattler to backup Derek Carr this year; Rattler was this year’s QB7 at pick 5.150 and that represents a difference of 138 draft selections between himself and Nix. By draft order, Rattler and Nix basically set an NFL record for picks between quarterbacks, yet by ranking they’re literally standing next to each other.

2022’s QB6, Howell, was picked after Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and Bailey Zappe. The only drafted QB expected to start this season is Brock Purdy, who was QB9 and pick 262 overall. Zappe seems to have lost his job in New England to sixth rounder Joe Milton, 2024’s QB9.

The last time we saw a first round run on QBs like 2024 was 2021, the year of five in the top-15. The next QB taken was Kyle Trask, the final pick of round two, and he’s in competition with John Wolford to be Baker Mayfield’s backup. The Bucs seemed to know right away that Trask was no heir apparent to Tom Brady, but GM Jason Licht also gave this quote recently that helps backup my point earlier about teams getting desperate:

“You know you’ve got teams that have – in back-to-back years – taken quarterbacks in the Top 10, and it’s a premium position,” Licht said. “You want to hit on it. You get desperate, teams get desperate [looking for a franchise quarterback]. You see what teams give up in trades, you see what they’re doing in money – guaranteed money – all these things to get their quarterback. So to take one in the second round – I have no apologies for that.”

“QBs getting paid” recently is another reason why the Broncos picked Bo Nix much earlier than anyone anticipated except for Sean Payton.

The first five QBs in 2020 are all NFL starters getting paid: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts. QB6 was Jacob Eason and he’s about as good as any other QB drafted after Hurts that year.

The last one I’ll mention is 2019, simply because QB6 Ryan Finley was picked almost a round ahead of QB7 Jarrett Stidham, the other quarterback in competition to start for Sean Payton’s Broncos in 2024. Right now, it is all but set in stone that offseason trade acquisition Zach Wilson is either going to be QB3 or be cut, so it is down to Nix and Stidham.

9News’ Mike Klis, usually the go-to for Broncos intel, had this to say of Nix moving ahead of Stidham this week:

“(Nix) has done better on the field, performance-wise. But also, there were a couple tells in the training camp practice today,” 9News’ Mike Klis reported on “Klis Kave” on August 2. “They had a couple move-the-ball drills and walk-throughs. Bo was the only one who did it. They had a game situation where they only had 13 seconds left, they needed a few yards, and then had to stop the clock. Bo Nix was the only quarterback who did that. Why would they only use Bo if he wasn’t going to be the guy?

Payton just to hope that one of these two can run his offense better than 2012’s QB6…and coincidentally, Russell Wilson must be the most recent QB6 to start in Week 1 as a rookie.

Perhaps that’s actually a good omen for the Seahawks, as Wilson was mostly-terrible for the first couple months of his career.

Today’s Seaside Joe is MY birthyear: 1982. Shout yourself out in the comments if you were also born in 1982.

What “Seahawks vs Bo Nix” would mean to me

Before this becomes a for-sure reality, what should Seahawks fans even expect from this potentially inevitable news that Bo Nix won the Week 1 starting job? Well, I do remember hearing long before the draft that the upside to Nix would be a comparison to Drew Brees, who of course was the perfect quarterback for Payton even if he wasn’t the most highly-heralded draft prospect.

Though Brees was pick 32 (first of the second round in 2000), he was also QB2 behind Michael Vick as QB1 and pick 001 overall.

A much-heralded career at Purdue with 34 career starts and 1,525 pass attempts helped propel Brees over QB3 Quincy Carter and QB4 Marques Tuiasosopo, both second rounders, despite concerns about his height and arm strength. (QB6 Sage Rosenfels went 4.109.)

Brees spent virtually his entire rookie season on the Chargers bench behind Doug Flutie, starting one game against the Chiefs in the middle of the year. It wasn’t until his fourth season that Brees won Comeback Player of the Year and became an NFL star.

Nix doesn’t have concerns about his height (6’3, 214) and was considered “protoypical” as a five-star recruit in the 2019 high school class. But his career at Auburn was only notable for how disappointing it was (39 TD/16 INT over 34 games in three years, but 18 rushing TDs) and it is only because of the transfer portal’s creation that his football life was saved. Transferring to Oregon in 2022 with a job as the starter for new head coach Dan Lanning, Nix found coaches who knew exactly how to highlight his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses.

Still, in spite of amazing stats (75% completions, 74 TD, 10 INT, 9.2 Y/A, 20 rushing TD in 27 games), many analysts couldn’t get past the fact that Nix excelled in a system that may have helped a lot of quarterbacks post great numbers:

“Oregon did not ask a lot of him as a processor down the field. Ton of screens, RPOs and simple vertical concepts; Inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts; Below-average ability to find answers within structure when first read is taken away.”

On one hand, teams facing Nix in the NFL might take comfort in knowing that he hasn’t proven that he can make/create a lot of the plays that most successful quarterbacks in the NFL have to make. It could be in there, but so far he wasn’t asked to do those things often, or he was asked and he couldn’t.

On the other, Payton is going to convince himself that he’s even better than Oregon’s coaches at making the most with what he has at his disposal. He couldn’t make it work with Russell Wilson however, he couldn’t make it work in New Orleans after Brees retired, so he really does need Bo Nix to be Drew Brees in order for anyone to believe that this QB6 is going to play like a QB1.

Seahawks can’t celebrate until the game is over

The last time the Seahawks and Broncos played each other in Week 1, a quarterback who had sat on the bench for seven years was the victor over a quarterback who might be in the Hall of Fame one day. There is nothing to expect in Week 1 other than the unexpected.

And how good the Broncos are this season may have a lot less to do with how good their quarterback is than what they need to get from their offensive line, receivers, and defense.

Denver’s starting receivers are expected to be Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims. The top tight end right now is Adam Trautman. The defense seems to have a bigger hole at linebacker than the Seahawks do, if Seattle even has a weakness at linebacker, as they’re starting Cody Barton next to Alex Singleton. The Broncos didn’t fire defensive coordinator Vance Joseph after the team ranked bottom-three against the run and bottom-10 against the pass…and then they chose Nix over Murphy and Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner.

That could turn out to be a good decision, if not a great decision, but if I’m Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb, I’m a little bit happier that they chose QB6 over DEF1. Let Nix be as great as he wants to be in the AFC, as long as it happens after Week 1.