The mind of Seaside Joe is kind of full this morning (trust me, it doesn’t take much to gas this little tank) and there are a handful of topics I wanted to cover today. To the point where I am struggling to know which article I should write first.
The first step then is simply to get one germ through the door—any germ—and then hopefully the rest will follow once the clog is unjammed. My only goal is to get episode 1130 out and then you’ll see what follows in the coming days.
Yes, that’s right, today is 1,130 straight days of sending out a Seahawks newsletter and as many of you know, that has included as many as three or four articles per day in the month since Russell Wilson was traded. If you got here from Twitter and want to take part in Seaside Joe’s historic growth rate at Substack, please sign up for a FREE subscription and you won’t be disappointed. At least not in quantity.
Over the last 24 hours, I’ve watched a ton of footage of GREAT quarterback play. From Cam Newton’s Auburn days to Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes in January’s historic playoff game to Grayson McCall Grayson McCall Grayson McCall, I’ve overloaded myself with a sense of what I love about watching quarterbacks play football. And I came away with some takes. Some scorching hot takes. The hottest of takes.
In the past, my quarterback takes have run the gamut from right (saying Jared Goff would soon be ousted by the Rams while everyone else was giving him MVP chatter in 2018) to wrong (Paxton Lynch is the best QB of the 2016 draft) but I’m satisfied that my overall track record at the position is acceptable for a person of my limited Xs and Os knowledge.
Here are a few of my QB hot takes:
Zach Wilson will lead the Jets to the playoffs in 2022
There’s nobody else in the NFL under 25 who I would rather watch play football. Wilson has the “WOW” factor that nobody else of his generation has other than Justin Herbert. Maybe we’ll see that in Trey Lance once he actually gets out there. There’s no quarterback in this upcoming draft class who has the “WOW” factor. There are at least four quarterbacks in the 2023 draft who could have the “WOW” factor.
I know that “Jets-AFC Playoffs???” will draw 95-percent boos because people are so enamored with the other quarterbacks in the conference. But didn’t “Bengals-AFC Playoffs???” do the same a year ago? (I was not surprised that Cincinnati made the playoffs, but like everyone else, am shocked that they nearly won the Super Bowl.)
If could believe that Joe Burrow would make the year two leap, then you can believe that Wilson will make the year two leap. I am more intrigued by Wilson than I am by Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, or Trevor Lawrence.
What we need to see from New York in 2022 is an improved offensive line (signed Laken Tomlinson to play right guard, while 2021 first round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker enters year two and 2020 first round pick Mekhi Becton enters year three), a healthy season from Corey Davis, and of course a better managed defense by Robert Saleh.
I think the Jets keep their top-10 picks and they can get some immediate help, including at offensive line and/or receiver…. Jameson Williams would be a great long-term addition for Wilson, as the Jets receivers struggled mightily in getting open for him last season.
Everything that people claim to love in the modern QB—arm strength, trick throws, athleticism, scrambling abilities, creating opportunities by extending plays out of the pocket, swagger, leadership—he’s got it. He’s got everything. Zach Wilson is going to be a HUGE star in the NFL.
Grayson McCall is the next Zach Wilson
I’ve linked this article from last April time and time again, and I’ll do it today also because many of you are new to Seaside Joe: Grayson McCall is the next Zach Wilson.
I kept tabs on McCall week-to-week in 2021 and wrote a short follow-up in December, but I’m due for another extensive Grayson McCall game-by-game breakdown this summer. I was watching McCall highlights for a long time yesterday and nobody other than Zach Wilson right now makes me clap my hands and go “YES!” time and time again like he does. He’s so consistent. He’s so innovative. He’s so nimble. He’s so smart. He’s so underrated.
I bet $60 that Grayson would win the 2021 Heisman Trophy even though there was only one sportsbook in all of Las Vegas that I could even find with him listed as an option. I obviously didn’t come close to winning that bet, but not because Grayson struggled for any reason.
In fact, Grayson led the nation in yards per attempt (11.9), adjusted Y/A (13.6), passer rating (207.6), and his mastery of the option offense led to 290 rushing yards and four touchdowns. His passer rating was 21 points higher (207.6 to 186.6) than second-place C.J. Stroud.
Of course, I’m not ignorant to where McCall struggles or to the fact that his low number of attempts (241) and quality of competition in the Sun Belt helps him be the most efficient passer in college football. But he still wouldn’t be the most efficient passer in college football (one of the most efficient in NCAA history) without possessing the talent that he does and the fact that he wasn’t heavily recruited has nothing to do with a lack of talent.
Justin Herbert, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger are all on a very long list of quarterbacks who were not heavily recruited coming out of high school.
I would like to see more arm strength from McCall and improvement in mechanics, footwork, etc. He has only ever played in the option offense, so any team that drafts him will need to work around him—not ask him to work within what they do.
But here’s the only question I need answered: Do I love watching Grayson McCall play football and is he a great football player? He’s the best player in college football that nobody is watching.
No QB is drafted in the top-20 picks
If I had to lean towards any quarterback in the 2022 draft, it would be Pitt’s Kenny Pickett. If anyone seems like a guy who could at least be Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins, it’s Pickett.
But ultimately I believe that there are not a lot of teams in this draft who, like the Patriots in 2021, see themselves as being one “steady eddie” away from the playoffs. I see a lot of teams who are looking at C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and a bevy of talent in the 2023 class (McCall, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis) and thinking that it would be a nightmare to block themselves from being open to that pick a year from now.
(For the record, Grayson McCall is STILL not a consensus NFL draft prospect. WalterFootball doesn’t list him among the top-18 QBs for 2023.)
Ultimately, in watching the 2022 NFL Draft quarterbacks all of last year and all of this draft season, nobody moves the needle like you should expect with a “franchise” player at the position.
So then what would it take for a team like the Seahawks, Panthers, Lions, or Steelers to pull the trigger on someone like Malik Willis, even though he needs multiple years of development and probably can’t help a QB-needy franchise in 2022?
Here’s maybe my hottest take of all and I’m still working on it, so give me a little slack until I refine it: I believe football is a game only being played by two people… Each respective quarterback.
Yes, maybe I think “QB Winz” do matter. (!!!!) (YIKES!!! BAD TAKE???)
Think of quarterbacks like golfers, while the other 21 players on the field are “the conditions.”
Almost every single play, especially in the modern game, is controlled through the decisions of the quarterback. At least, when you get to the highest levels of the sport. When you get to the playoffs and then you’ve got Patrick Mahomes on one side, Josh Allen on the other. Or Tom Brady on one side, Matthew Stafford on the other. Stafford on one side, Joe Burrow on the other.
Every other player on the field has an assignment and he knows he needs to execute and win his assignment. The receivers and the cornerbacks. The tackles and the edge rushers. The running backs and the field. They’re all attempting to play their roles, but the quarterback, the great ones, are making most of the important decisions; even more so than the coaches.
Mahomes has to make his pre-snap reads, his post-snap reads, go through his progressions, avoid sacks, avoid turnovers, he’s got the ball in his hands through the play until he finally decides where it ought to go or if he should run it. The same for Allen, as we saw in that divisional round game.
Everyone else on the field is either making his job harder or making his job easier, whether they’re playing offense or defense. If you don’t have a great quarterback, like say Jimmy Garoppolo, then that’s when the general manager and head coach have to do everything in their power to lighten up the conditions and make the game come easier to him. If you find a great quarterback, like a Russell Wilson, then the job of the GM and coach becomes easier.
Which is why teams with franchise quarterbacks don’t stress as much about having a perfect offensive line, or trading Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams for premium draft picks and cap savings, or “giving Manning a defense”. It’s just not as important as it is for the teams with Garoppolo, and the margin of error gets razor thin when the quarterback is someone like (all due respect) Drew Lock.
I also think of it like a role-playing game: Quarterbacks are the main characters. Everyone else is a non-playable character or a varying level of “villain” and handoffs or punts or field goal tries are like cutaway scenes that are entirely out of your control.
But I think football might be a lot more like tennis or darts than we actually give it credit for. Yes it is a TEAM sport and I love that aspect of it. However, car racing is also a TEAM sport and yet we never talk about anyone else other than the driver. Josh Allen had 646 pass attempts and 122 rushing attempts in 2021, meaning that he’s about 80-percent of the Bills offense. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and his offensive line all make his job easier than if Buffalo had no talent around him, but everyone on an offense become a moot point when they don’t have a quarterback who knows how to play winning football at a high level.
I get that sense from Zach Wilson, Grayson McCall, and Josh Allen. I get that sense from Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Herbert.
I don’t get that sense from Willis—but who the fuck am I to judge?
Why would the Seahawks draft Malik Willis? Maybe when they watch him play and they see that you know, he had zero offensive line help at Liberty and wasn’t playing with the best players around him, that he hasn’t even begun to tap into what he can do at the next level. He does have traits that could carry him to being a special quarterback in the league, it’s just that we lack real evidence of it during football games at the college level—I love his personality and attitude so I am rooting for him.
It’s in my experience that QBs of this ilk are day two and day three picks almost 100-percent of the time and that’s where the hesitation comes in to even think about him with a top-10 selection. There is just as much hesitation with Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, and Carson Strong, but out of those six, maybe we do get two NFL starters.
If Pete Carroll and John Schneider get chills watching and talking to Willis, then there won’t be a hitch in their step as they put in the pick to draft him. If he can play football like a great golfer, then you don’t worry about where a team is in the rebuilding phase. You just get that guy and figure it out later.
Do I expect Seattle to pick Malik Willis? Not even close. I think quarterbacks will be available at the end of round one and on day two who have that “day one potential” but the resumes simply aren’t strong enough to be early picks. With so many other needs, so many talented players in the trenches and at cornerback, I see decent QBs lasting well into round three.
But I would wait for Grayson McCall.
If Seattle takes Matt Corral, in the second or maybe even in third, I would be happy. To me Corral looks to be the best, that and a Canadian toonie will get you a cup of Joe at Tim Hortons, see Canadian. If you spend a second or third there is nothing stopping you from taking your man, Grayson, or any other good lookin QB. It looks like he will not rise to the first round, if he has to leap frog 14 out of 18 QBs more highly ranked than him. I have loved his highlights. The new highlight to me was him bashing over the goal line for the touchdown. If Corral was drafted and showed promise, you could still take a 2023 QB. The old saying your second best player should be the back up QB. Victoria Chris
I get the gist of the aritcle and it has merit but it misses at least four siginifcant points.
1. QBs only play offense and even the great ones can be shut down.
2. The running game is a big part of the offense on any really good team.
3. Wide recievers don't just run their assignment. In fact, Waldron said a difference this last year would be the freedom of wide receivers to adjust to the defense.
4. Not all QBs are leaders. Regardless of their on-field acumen, leadership is still a critical trait.