Seahawks are biggest threat to overthrow the NFC
John Schneider's masterclass on flipping over a defense and an offense in 2 steps in less than 2 years
The Seahawks are 3-1, same record that they had after four games in 2024. So how could it be that last time I was skeptical of Seattle’s ability to reach the playoffs and this time I feel as though the Seahawks could be the biggest threat to Philly and Detroit in the NFC?
Because last year’s team didn’t seem as good despite its wins and this year’s Seahawks seem much better despite their one loss and self-inflicted wounds.
The Seahawks are 2-1 in the NFC. Last year, Seattle didn’t win its second conference game until WEEK 11!
The Seahawks have allowed 67 points, the fewest in the NFC. Last year’s team had allowed 85 points through four, an average ranking, including 42 to the Lions.
The Seahawks went on the road to beat the Steelers by 14 points and Pittsburgh hasn’t lost to anyone else yet. They dominated the Saints, a team that has at least held its own against the Bills, 49ers, and Cardinals. And they exorcised some demons to win in Arizona in primetime.
Last year, the Seahawks beat Bo Nix in his debut, Jacoby Brissett in overtime, and Skyler Thompson at Lumen Field. They allowed the Lions to complete all 19 pass attempts against them on Monday Night Football, an NFL record.
The Seahawks seem different because they are different.
Since last January, Seattle has changed out every single coach on the roster, John Schneider has assumed the bulk (if not all) of the responsibilities for the franchise’s roster, and they’ve boldly traded away stars and spent over $100 million on their replacements.
Now a team that hasn’t finished top-10 in scoring defense since 2016 or top-5 in scoring offense since 2015 is on track to potentially do both of those things in the same season.
No other league is structured as well as the NFL in terms of allowing teams to climb from the bottom or the middle to the top in a short period of time. Consider the Lions:
In 2021, Detroit replaced its GM, head coach, and quarterback within the span of a few weeks. Although the Lions lost more games in 2022 than they did in 2021, they went from the worst team in the NFL to arguably the best in a span of three years and that growth only included making two top-10 picks, one of whom missed most of last season.
The Seahawks could be the next NFC team to prove that they’ve evolved from a good team to a great one and they wouldn’t have gotten there with splashy acquisitions and top-10 picks. These were smart moves that did not get much hype and often led Seattle to people who other teams could forever ask themselves, “Why, why, WHY didn’t we keep him?”
The Seahawks fired Pete Carroll on January 10, 2024 and since then they have made a lot of moves, 98% of which I probably won’t mention here. But several stand out as the main reasons for how Seattle went from the team that lost 37-3 to the Ravens two years ago to one that would probably beat the Ravens by 30 if they had a rematch next week. Let’s talk about those standouts.
Hiring Mike Macdonald
I believe that your worst days are your best days and this certainly applies to the Seahawks: Schneider turned his sights on Macdonald when the Ravens held Seattle to six first downs, three points, and 28 rushing yards in 2023. Whatever it took for the Seahawks to become obsessed with having Macdonald, it was worth it.
Macdonald was the second-biggest name on the head coach interview cycle in 2024, but the Seahawks have a way of attracting marquee candidates for the job dating back to Mike Holmgren and certainly before that with Chuck Knox and Tom Flores. No hire has panned out better than Pete, but Macdonald is off to an even better start.
Macdonald was handed a better Seahawks roster than Pete’s in 2010, but I’ll say again that… Seattle’s defense was in the worst shape of Carroll’s career when he got fired.
In the final 9 games of 2023, the Seahawks defense ranked:
29th in points allowed
32nd in rushing yards allowed
32nd in YPC allowed (5.2)
32nd in rushing TD allowed (17)
28th in passer rating allowed (97.8)
31st in completion rate allowed
Even the passer rating is generous because teams didn’t have a need to throw for touchdowns against a defense that was so soft against the run.
Macdonald inherited the worst defense in the NFL and left the best defense in the NFL for Seattle’s job, which to Schneider’s credit he was willing to wait to offer until the Ravens were eliminated in the AFC Championship game. That wait caused the Seahawks to miss out on some potential offensive coordinator hires that would have been better than Ryan Grubb, but allowed Seattle to get the most influential defensive coach in modern football.
Despite that influence, none of Macdonald’s mentees are doing nearly as good as he is doing with the Seahawks and that includes his former team with most of the same players that he had in 2023:
Under defensive coordinator Zach Orr, the Ravens have collapsed from first to ninth to 32nd in terms of points allowed. Baltimore was first in sacks (60) and first in net yards per pass attempt in 2023, but today they’re 31st in sacks (4) and 31st in passing yards allowed. Conversely, the Seahawks have improved their greatest weakness: from 139 rushing yards per game allowed in 2023 (31st) to 90 rushing yards allowed per game in 2025 (6th).
They’ve gone from a defense that had 11 interceptions in 2023 to a team that already has seven interceptions in their first four games. Seattle just sacked Kyler Murray six times, the second-most sacks in a single game in Murray’s career, and they’ve managed to improve their pass rush without any obvious improvements in personnel; Carroll had Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, and Uchenna Nwosu. He had Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed.
But the Seahawks didn’t have an impressive pass rushing presence for many years in a row. The changing denominator is the head coach/defensive coordinator, not so much the players.
Which isn’t to put down Pete Carroll, it’s just highlighting that in 2025 football the biggest name on the board is Mike Macdonald…”You not scum, you just scum compared to Krusty.”
And don’t feel alone, Zach Orr. Go look in Miami, where former Ravens assistant and current Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver ranks 30th in points allowed (32.3 per game) and 29th in run defense. Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, Macdonald’s DBs coach in 2023, is commanding the 26th ranked scoring defense (30 PPG) and 28th ranked run defense.
Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense is better than those, ranking fifth in passing yards allowed, fourth in sacks, and third in points per game (17.8), but Macdonald took over head coaching and DC duties and the Seahawks rank third (16.8 PPG). The key difference there being that if Minter has success, it guarantees his exit and if Macdonald has success, it guarantees him 10 more years in Seattle.
Not to get ahead of ourselves over 4 games (really more like 12 good games if we go back to the second half of 2024), I just want to isolate how amazing this particular defensive coordinator hire looks right now:
-Macdonald and all of his protegees have had equal amounts of time to fix a defense, or in Orr’s case just maintain a defense, which is about the last 19 or 20 months. None of those are as good as Seattle’s, some of them are terrible.
-Macdonald wasn’t handed a defense that was already good; it was actually one of the worst defenses in the league at the time.
-9 of the Seahawks starters/key players on defense in 2023 are still with the team today. It wasn’t just “Schneider did the shopping and now Mike is doing the cooking”…Pete also did a lot of the shopping and…
You would think losing 37-3 would break the offense, but it actually broke Pete’s defense. Maybe he just lost all confidence after that day, realizing that “Oh, this guy half my age is the new thing”. Seattle had the worst defense in the league after that. Almost two years later, the Seahawks might have the best.
The change at quarterback: Geno Smith to Sam Darnold
If any part of you struggles with this comparison, then don’t focus so much on the abstract questions. Just look at the numbers that have nothing to do with the on-field performances for now:
7 years younger
Almost half as much guaranteed money
$20 million more cap space to use in 2025-2026
Add a 2025 third round pick
The Seahawks could be a better team from those two transactions merely because of having the additional resources to spend. Although yes, Geno now leads the NFL in interceptions (7) after another rough start in Week 4 and Darnold is being praised as if George McFly was always the hero and never the coward.
We can save Darnold’s coronation for much later down the line depending on how good the Seahawks are from here, but still praise Seattle (and Schneider) for having the guts to back themselves instead of the quarterback; it is probably the greatest flaw I’ve seen consistently happen in the NFL over the last 5 years…
Like NFL teams, what the hell is wrong with you? What are we doing here? These quarterback contracts are the absolute dumbest decisions that teams make every year and Schneider has not once, but TWICE put his foot down (maybe part Carroll in 2022) when quarterbacks have demanded renegotiation.
In 2022, the Seahawks fleeced the Broncos. In 2025, it’s not the same kind of fleecing but check this out:
Geno’s new cap hit in 2025 is $40 million
Darnold’s is $13.4 million
Geno has $18.5 million guaranteed in 2026
Darnold has $0 guaranteed in 2025
The Seahawks didn’t want any part of that and less than a month into his new job the “put in Kenny Pickett” talk isn’t from fringe Raiders fans, it’s also beat writers.
It’s not just about “the new guy’s good, the old guy was bad”, it’s also that if Darnold was bad, the Seahawks could just cut him and move on because they put their foot down. If they kept Geno and paid Geno and Geno was bad, they’d have fewer resources and a greater commitment to him and less options.
Trading Geno was cited as a “terrible move” by mainstream media, some called it the sign of a full teardown by Seattle. Now they just sort of pretend like they always liked Sam Darnold, and by the way the Raiders aren’t the only team feeling the impact of the offseason QB carousel.
The Vikings either got cheap or scared, maybe letting the media boo-birds influence their decision to let Darnold leave in free agency because of his last two starts in Minnesota despite an MVP-caliber season. Yes, J.J. McCarthy was drafted to be the future but so what? You don’t go to the future, it comes to you.
The Vikings had an elite team last year with Darnold and they gifted him to the free agent market over a contract that would have paid him less money this year than T.J. Hockenson, Brian O’Neill, and Jonathan Greenard. Correct me if I’m wrong, but does this happen…ever?
He’s not the same as Case Keenum or Kirk Cousins.
You won 14 games with Darnold and McCarthy can’t leave, he’s under contract. You just continue to develop him, but don’t give up the best thing you’ve had in a long time. The 2-2 Vikings are one more loss away from matching Darnold’s entire loss total in 2024.
McCarthy looked really bad before he got injured and Carson Wentz is no better than he’s been for the last six years.
This is not Seattle’s problem but I think it’s really important to point out that before the season the narrative I remember was:
“The Seahawks supporting cast is so much worse than the Vikings supporting cast”
“The Seahawks OL is so much worse than what Darnold had in Minnesota”
“The Seahawks don’t have Justin Jefferson”
“The Seahawks don’t have Kevin O’Connell”
And now it’s sort of…”Well, can you really believe it’s Darnold? Look how good Seattle’s supporting cast is!”
Which is it? It used to be the Geno would make the Raiders better and the Seahawks would make Darnold worse but now the Seahawks are better and the Raiders and Vikings are worse. Seattle’s supporting cast does seem to have improved and the change at quarterback — with all its trappings — is also a part of what makes them all better.
This post was going to include more transactions (special teams, I see you too) but then it became this long after only 2, so I’ll save some for later. And subscribe!
Seaside Joe 2401
Great post. It’s important to recall the terrible analysis offered by the poor mainstream pundits. Thanks for refreshing the old narrative and letting those people stew in their bloated natterings.
Great article. It's easy to forget how many pieces on defense have been here all along. A couple of drafts and a key acquisition at LB, and you go from bad to good. Coaching matters. You can have talent and bad performance, and you can have talent and excellent performance. That's coaching and mindset/culture.
The Vikings decision to let Sam go never made sense to me. But it's what happens when a player performs poorly (as did the rest of the team) in two big games, and you come to the conclusion that player can't win big games. It's a flawed conclusion, and it's what led to them going with a sophomore QB that doesn't appear ready. Darnold had already shown that past performance is not always a predictor of future performance. He can learn and adapt, and he'll be doing that for the Seahawks thankfully.
Pete forgot Rule #1 (his rule #1) quite some time ago, and he still hasn't clued in why he's lost his magic. Pete, rule #1 for crying out loud. How can you forget rule #1?