4 Things Left To Decide
The season isn't about the Super Bowl, it's about the future
The season may not actually be going any differently than the Seahawks expected it would go when the team made a change at head coach, so while fading playoff hopes seems like a turn for the worse after a 3-0 start, the season was not meant to bring another Super Bowl to Seattle.
Not this year.
This does not excuse a defense that has given up the 3rd-most points and 2nd-most rushing yards since Week 4, that was not in their plans, but goals have stayed the same. These are the four biggest things that the Seahawks have to evaluate over the next nine weeks.
1 - EVALUATE THE EVALUATOR
Nothing else you will read here matters unless the Seahawks are sure that John Schneider knows how to make a great football team in Seattle. Every move prior to 2024 is attached to Pete Carroll, so Jody Allen’s priority is deciding if she did the right thing to put Schneider in charge of the Seahawks.
Schneider-stamped moves:
Hired Mike Macdonald
Picked the coaching staff, including Ryan Grubb
Re-signed Leonard Williams, Noah Fant, extended Julian Love
Added Jerome Baker, Tyrel Dodson, Rayshawn Jenkins, George Fant, Connor Williams, Pharaoh Brown
Traded Baker and a 4th for Ernest Jones
The 2024 draft class, starting with Byron Murphy II
Traded for Sam Howell
These are not ALL the moves — not even counting all the non-moves and other choices he could have made — just the big ones.
Schneider hitched his wagon to Macdonald, so complaints about the coaching staff is also a criticism of the GM. It is in Schneider’s best interest to help Macdonald look good, so expect the Seahawks to continue to give him anything he needs to do that, which is why Seattle traded for Ernest Jones out of nowhere.
The Seahawks have a bad defense, they can’t run the ball or protect the quarterback, and special teams is inconsistent. If that continues, Schneider will be the one to decide where the problems are after the season and that is going fall on anyone but him or Macdonald: Coordinators, assistant coaches, and/or the quarterback.
The only person who can decide if Schneider is the right person to make those decisions is Allen, so I hope she’s been taking notes.
[THIS SECTION IS NOT A CRITICISM OF SCHNEIDER. EVERY TEAM’S OWNER SHOULD BE GRADING THE PERSON WHO BUILDS THEIR TEAM, EVEN IF THE OWNER BUILDS THE TEAM. MY GRADE ON SCHNEIDER IS ONGOING.]
2 - EVALUATE THE QUARTERBACK
Every time Geno plays, he plays for $38.5 million: The non-guaranteed amount he’s due in 2025.
My Gut Feeling: Schneider wants to be attached to “his own quarterback”.
A central theme to Schneider’s career as Seattle’s GM has been his want to draft a quarterback, like rumored interest in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Seahawks met with the top-4 quarterbacks in 2023, but didn’t draft Will Levis, the only one they could get. They looked into the 2024 class, but were picking too late to be serious about it.
Geno Smith didn’t do anything wrong, he’s just being Geno Smith, but every week on social media I see the same comments dividing fans into “pro” and “anti” camps based on his most recent game. The Seahawks have to decide next year what camp they belong to because it’s time to choose a lane.
If Geno is great over the last nine games, it will be hard for Schneider to cut him and he may have to extend him. If Geno is bad — for any reason — it gives Schneider an excuse to cut him.
3 - KNOW THE CORE PLAYERS
The Seahawks can’t build the team without knowing which parts are missing, and they can’t know which parts they’re missing until they I.D. the parts they don’t need.
Here’s a scary thought: Is there one player on offense who you guarantee will be starting for the Seahawks in two years? Charles Cross probably has the best odds and that depends on Seattle giving him a pricey extension.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant, Kenneth Walker make sense to be core players, as do a few others, but the Seahawks are entering a void in which some are going into free agency, others could retire, and certain vets have to prove themselves.
Defensively, the Seahawks have a lot more core players, I won’t need to name them because it’s obvious. But Schneider and Macdonald have to make calls on how bad the needs are at every position, especially linebacker: Ernest Jones and Tyrel Dodson have the rest of the season to prove how many millions they are worth, if any.
4 - FIND THE DEAD WEIGHT
The Seahawks have a cap issue to resolve next year, but a lot of that money is empty promises and players are sure to be cut.
These players probably can’t save themselves:
WR Tyler Lockett, $17 million in savings
OLB Dre’Mont Jones, $11.5 million in savings
OLB Uchenna Nwosu, $8.5 million in savings
S Rayshawn Jenkins, $5.4 million in savings
Nwosu and Jenkins being on IR hurts their cases more than anything else. Lockett could give back money to stay. Jones could be a “sunk cost”.
These players are being looked at:
QB Geno Smith, $25 million in savings
WR DK Metcalf, $10.8 million in savings
TE Noah Fant, $9 million in savings
Players are always being evaluated, but when you start to make this much money that’s when players get grilled for what they make and if they are worth it.
Then John Schneider — if he’s the right GM — can decide who the Seahawks “core players” are around Geno Smith — if he’s the right QB — and how many holes they need to fill when free agency and the draft come back next year.
And if the Seahawks go on an amazing run and win the Super Bowl this season, that’ll work too.
Seaside Joe 2038
Here’s the thing: Geno haters see Geno as the problem, now and in the future. ‘He’s not good enough now and he won’t be any better in the future and he’s going to sink the boat financially’. So obviously toss him. But then what? Get some second tier current ‘known commodity’ or trade up in the draft.
Denver thought they were one guy away from the promised land so they brought in Russ. The Jets bet the farm on Rogers. How is replacing Geno going to turn the team around? It’s not his fault that defense can’t keep the opponents off the field, or that the O line can’t protect the QB, or open holes for K9. I’m not the leader of the Geno fan club, but at this point I don’t feel like dumping him will turn the team around. I suspect that if there was some way to compare the performance of every player on this team to all the other starters in the league at their positions, Geno would be closer to the top of the comparison list than almost all of the rest of the team. If people have to go it doesn’t make sense to me to get rid of the best player at his position money considerations aside.
I so appreciate your clear-eyed articulation of where we are. One of the first things I learned about personnel was that if you're going to fire somebody, you better have another person available who can do their job. (Or, in my case, you better be able to do it yourself. I don't guess Schneider can sling it or wing it...so...) And whoever plays QB will be playing behind a sieve for an offensive line, in Ryan Grubb's offense. (Pausing again to note that neither O nor D are fully installed yet. This seems like a problem, I just don't know if it means the schemes are too complicated or the players are too deficient. Or both.) If you draft a rookie, you HAVE to be looking at a full rebuild. And you have to be clear-eyed about the quality of QBs available. At best three, last time I checked, are getting anywhere near first-round grades, and none of them are top-10. One of those three is Shadeur Sanders, and he's almost certainly a bad culture fit whose father will want him in a major market. So. So who you gonna get? What free agent is available who you want to gamble the farm and the future and your job on? Behind a line that keeps us, apparently, from even the semblance of a running game. Geno isn't the problem. He may also not be the solution. But this year, right now, and next year? Not where I'd spend my money. Oh, and DK's absence isn't why we lost on Sunday.