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Are all the Seahawks mock drafts wrong?
Almost NOBODY agrees with me that the Seattle Seahawks are “most likely” to draft an edge rusher with their first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Though edge rushers make up 50% of my “most likely first picks” and I’ve been leaning that way for months, only one of the 25 mock drafts I compiled for this post have Seattle taking an edge rusher.
That’s okay and it doesn’t deter me from believing they are more likely to take an edge than an offensive lineman and especially not a guard or a center.
After the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson in 2022, my first mock draft had them taking Charles Cross. I eventually changed the player, but always believed in that position.
In 2023, a season FULL of mock drafters obsessing with Seattle’s “need” at QB to take Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, I had them picking Devon Witherspoon.
And in 2024, my final mock draft said that the Seahawks would pick Byron Murphy II, if he was available, no matter if they had re-signed Leonard Williams. (I just didn’t think Murphy would be available.)
Only 4% of the following mock drafts have the Seahawks picking an edge rusher, compared to anywhere from 48%-68% of the articles connecting Seattle to a prospect who would play GUARD or CENTER for them. I see no way that those mock drafts can be based on what JOHN SCHNEIDER is most likely to do in the draft.
Can you remember a single time that the majority of “experts” were right about what the Seahawks would do? Seriously, one single time?
These are the 25 mock drafts and I’m going to grade the people who picked for Seattle, as in “Do these picks align with what Schneider is most likely to do?”
NOTE: I am grading the MOCK DRAFTER DECISION, I am NOT GRADING THE PLAYER AS A PICK.
I’ll repeat that:
These grades are for the writers/mock drafters. They are NOT grades related to how good the player is, or how good he fits with the Seahawks, or anything like that. I’m grading the research/decision/reasoning for mocking that player to Seattle.
G/C Grey Zabel, North Dakota State
Mock draft pick grade: C (Verderame gets a B- for trading down)
Matt Verderame, SI (trade down to 25)
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA Today
So nine of the 25 mocks I looked at (36%) have Zabel and 12 of them (almost half) have Zabel or Tyler Booker. Even if the Seahawks DO draft a first round guard/center for the first time in almost 20 years, I can’t give the mock drafts credit for these predictions because what’s their basis for choosing Zabel or Booker to Seattle?
I can tell you what it isn’t:
It isn’t going off of what THE SEAHAWKS are most likely to do. It is based on what the mock drafters want to do for the Seahawks.
There is a huge difference there because Seattle’s tendencies, Schneider’s words, Schneider’s actions, and the team’s position in this draft class (including 4 opportunities to draft interior offensive linemen on day two, a much higher probability) all point AWAY from guards.
You might be asking, “So if the Seahawks draft Grey Zabel, you’re not even going to give these writers credit?”
NOBODY GETS CREDIT FOR A MOCK DRAFT! It’s a mock draft. There is no intel. It’s a guess. I think it’s a bad guess and almost any bad guess could still end up being right. It doesn’t make it a good process.
Mock drafters have been wrong about what the Seahawks will do in the first round pretty much every single year that I’ve been doing this job, so now THIS TIME the guard mock draft pick was a “good job” and those past errors year after year don’t count?
I would never put a 0% chance on anything that could possibly happen with the 18th pick, so if the Seahawks draft Zabel then I’ll say “Good, I hope it helps the offensive line.”
But I won’t give an A grade because mock drafters looked at Seattle’s depth chart and said, “Ah, it’s definitely going to be a guard!” That’s what they do EVERY YEAR!
There’s NO CHANCE that Schneider’s methodology for making a draft pick is going to be, “I looked at my depth chart and clearly we had a need at center so we picked the best one.” So I’ll need to read better reasoning for the Seahawks drafting Zabel before I give out awards for doing what every other mock draft is doing, which is depth chart connections.
However, Verderame has the Seahawks trading down to 25 first and then selecting Zabel, so that’s far, far better as far, far as I’m concerned.
G Tyler Booker, Alabama
Mock Draft Pick Grade: D+
Even worse than Zabel because Booker is also not a scheme fit for what we expect Seattle’s offense to do under Klint Kubiak. D+.
TE Colston Loveland, Michigan
Mock Draft Pick Grade: B+
Hayden Winks, Underdog Fantasy
There’s a human connection there because of Michigan, there’s also a fit because the Seahawks should be looking for pass catchers. The two main issues I see against it are:
Tight end is still a questionable first round choice*
Loveland’s blocking could be really bad
I’m saying it’s “a questionable first round choice” because I don’t think that Schneider is as likely to take a low-value first round position. So I don’t want that to be confusing. I’m not grading based on if Loveland is a good first round pick, I’m grading the reasoning behind Schneider making the pick.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Mock Draft Pick Grade: C-
If the Seahawks are getting the Cooper Kupp who they expect to be getting — which is a WR2 for the next two seasons — I don’t see how they expect to highlight a first round wide receiver until 2027 at the soonest, especially in an offense that is PRAYING to be run the ball better and be a top-ranked rushing team. Teams do not need to draft receivers in the first round in order to acquire the type of weapon that mockers expect McMillan to be in Seattle.
A month ago, the Seahawks treated Kupp like the replacement for DK Metcalf’s production…what has changed to make them go back on that now? You don’t groom receivers for 2-3 years like you do other positions, you PLAY THEM right away. There’s no reason for this pick.
This is a “I saw that the Seahawks traded DK Metcalf, so now I’m doing something about it” pick. Schneider thinks he already did something about it.
WR Matthew Golden, Texas
Mock Draft Pick Grade: D
Same explanation, but I have never known the Seahawks to be the team that goes gaga over a 40-yard dash time at the combine. At least, not in the first round. The team has been favoring great college football players recently, which is not Golden.
S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Mock Draft Pick Grade: C+
I would give this an A- if it was in the second round, but I don’t see anything like “Kyle Hamilton” in Emmanwori. He also has the defensive verision of the wide receiver problem:
The Seahawks don’t have room to play a safety for the next two years, unless he’s the third safety, which isn’t a big role. They have one of the best nickel corners in the game. And if he’s moving to off-ball linebacker, how confident are you that a) he’ll be good there and b) it won’t take 3+ years?
The “Isaiah Simmons” type of pick in the first round is a scary proposition.
OT Kelvin Banks, Texas
Mock Draft Pick Grade: A-
This is the “everybody wins” kind of pick because Banks will play guard as a rookie and could kick out to tackle in 2026/2027…or maybe never. But at least he might kick back out to tackle.
Tackle is a first round position.
CB Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky
Mock Draft Pick Grade: B+
Points for originality. Hairston can push Josh Jobe for a starting job right away and he has the upside to be much better than Tariq Woolen by 2026. Hairston is 5’11, 183, 31” arms, which is a more sensible size as an outside CB in 2025, and he ran a 4.28 40-yard dash with a 1.5 10-yard split, so he has the long speed for the NFL.
Hairston is a smarter and more well thought out pick for the Seahawks than any of the guards.
EDGE Mykel Williams, Georgia
Mock Draft Pick Grade: A
It just had to be a 49ers beat writer, didn’t it?
Schneider is the type of GM who will pick the player who he believes will give Seattle the most value over the next 4-5 years.
So let’s compare first round guard to first round edge:
18th overall pick salary cap hits:
2025: $3.1m
2026: $3.8m
2027: $4.5m
2028: $5.3m
Those are the cap hits for the 18th overall pick in the next four years. Then a fifth-year option would be a huge raise from $5.3m, although I’m not 100% sure what that is, it could be $10-$15m.
A guard making $3-$5 million is going to rank anywhere from 27th to 15th in left guard salary. It’s a bargain, right? Kind of. A top-10 guard would make about $10 million. The savings from a rookie to a top-10 guard, if he plays like a top-10 guard, might be about $5 million.
Now compare that to an edge rusher making $3-$5 million in salary:
A $3m salary at edge ranks about 83rd in salary
A $5m edge rusher ranks 60th, but that’s in 2025 — by 2028, that $5m could rank 80th or lower
If you get a rookie contract player who plays like a top-10 edge rusher for $5 million, that’s a savings of about $15-$20 million compared to the best in the NFL. That’s just right now. By 2028, that number could be $25 or $30 million in savings.
One more time:
Mykel Williams and Grey Zabel would make the same salary as the 18th overall pick: $3m at the beginning, $5m by 2028
An edge is worth: $10-$40 million per season among top-30 players
A guard’s position is worth $3-$20 million per season among top-30 players
A center is worth $1-$15 million per season (most starting centers make under $5m)
So while you can argue that Mykel Williams has less of a chance to be a top-10 edge than Zabel has to be a top-10 guard (and a top-10 center makes even less), Williams only needs to be a top-25 edge rusher to carry a similar value as Zabel if he’s an elite center.
You can rarely find great edge rushers on day two. You almost exclusively find great guards and centers on day two.
This is why I do not expect Schneider, a value-forward GM, to take a guard and especially not a center, over an edge rusher.
Williams is a sensible player to fall to 18 as an edge rusher with upside. Donovan Ezeiruaku could make even more sense because he’s more likely to be on the board at 18.
The Schneider-Mike Macdonald Seahawks do not read as a “guard first, edge rusher/cornerback/tackle second” type of regime. Maybe that is what they will end up being in two weeks, but drafting a guard or a center is the move that should come as a SHOCK to fans, not the other way around. At Seaside Joe, I think we’ve been surprised by Seattle’s choices less often than at other places.
Seaside Joe 2230
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