Seahawks should treat each of their first three picks like number one overall picks

Seaside Joe 1133: Why picking an off-ball linebacker or an interior offensive lineman isn't going to get the job done

The Seattle Seahawks hold picks 9, 40, and 41 in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. But more important than the number of Seahawks draft picks is the state of Seattle’s roster, as the team lacks top tier players at too many key positions in order to keep pace with the rest of the NFC West.

It’s imperative that the Seahawks come out of the 2022 draft with at least two players who will generate the same amount of value as DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and what we saw at the end of last season from Rashaad Penny and Jordyn Brooks.

Leading up to their Super Bowl win, who were the best draft picks by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, T Tristan Wirfs, T Donovan Smith, LB Lavonte David, CB Carlton Davis, DT Vita Vea, S Antoine Winfield.

What about the Los Angeles Rams? WR Cooper Kupp, DT Aaron Donald, T Rob Havenstein, and I’ll add trading two firsts for CB Jalen Ramsey, trading two firsts for QB Matthew Stafford.

Last year’s Bengals? QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd, S Jessie Bates, DE Sam Hubbard, RB Joe Mixon, OT Jonah Williams, K Evan McPherson.

The Chiefs? QB Patrick Mahomes, DT Chris Jones, TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, trading picks for DE Frank Clark.

We can all agree that there is a clear through line between great quarterbacks and team success. We only disagree on who that next great quarterback for the Seahawks is going to be.

I think there’s also a clear indication lately that wide receivers are extraordinarily valuable to those quarterbacks, that really good pass rushing interior defensive linemen are rare and important, and we have classically accepted positions of value like offensive tackle, edge rusher, and cornerback.

Jarrett Bailey @JBaileyNFL

Most 30+ yard receptions by WRs in 2021 1. Cooper Kupp (15) 2. Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase (13) 3. Davante Adams (12) 4. Justin Jefferson (11) 5. Mike Williams (9)

If a team is picking first overall, we automatically rule out most positions for that franchise, including cornerback and wide receiver. Imagine the hysteria on Twitter if a team drafted a cornerback or a receiver first… though as we’ve seen in some years, a receiver or a corner could end being the best player in the class.

Still, what if the Seahawks treated each of their first three picks—9, 40, and 41—as if they were holding the number one pick? (With a tiny bit of room for interpretation on whether it is okay to pick a corner or a receiver.) Because let’s be honest: despite Seattle having two great receivers already and being set at safety, most of what teams like the Bucs, Chiefs, Rams, and Bengals have is far and away better than what the Seahawks currently have at most key positions: QB, LT, RT, PASS RUSH, CB.

To be blunt, I don’t want to see the Seahawks be “safe” with any of their first three picks, though I do want to say that “safe” is a misleading word as it is used in the draft. There are no “safe” positions or players, but there are certainly positions that matter a whole lot more than centers and run-stuffers.

If the Seahawks want to be the NFL’s best team again, they need stars, and stars only play at certain positions. This is what Seattle could choose to do with their first three picks:

Pick 9

THE ONLY POSITIONS WORTHY THIS PICK: QB, WR/ELITE RECEIVING TE, LT, EDGE/ELITE PASS RUSHING NOSE, CB1

BUT THERE ARE NO 2022 PROSPECTS WORTHY PICK 9 AT: QB, WR/ELITE RECEIVING TE, ELITE PASS RUSHING NOSE

REMAINING POSITIONS: LT, EDGE, CB1

Given these parameters, the Seahawks can only choose between someone who they believe can play left tackle (Charles Cross, Evan Neal, Trevor Penning being the three most-likely at 9), a respected edge rusher prospect (Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson II, Travon Walker, George Karlaftis would be the top-four after Aidan Hutchinson), or a CB1 (I would only rank Ahmad Sauce Gardner here).

It’s not that I think there aren’t any top-10 WRs in this class either, but Seattle’s not in the position to pass on one of the other positions when they haven’t ruled out Metcalf and Lockett for the future… plus, there’s going to be a lot of choices on day two.

The Seahawks would end up with a wish list of eight players then: Cross, Neal, Penning, Thibodeaux, Johnson, Walker, Karlaftis, and Gardner. Of course, your list might be different than mine!

I’d still be surprised if Cross is the pick and I’m not sure that Evan Neal is going to be a left tackle, so my list might even be six names or less.

Another reason why Seattle is more likely to trade down than stay at nine. If George Karlaftis is on the board at nine though, that should be a good enough reason to not trade down. He could be an elite edge rusher in the NFL and the Jets could pick him at 10.

EJ Snyder @thedraftsmanFB

When people get excited about George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue #5) this is why. That is special/rare quickness out of a guy his size (6’4”/266). Just blasts by the RT.

Pick 40/Pick 41

THE ONLY POSITIONS WORTHY THIS PICK: QB, WR/ELITE RECEIVING TE, LT, EDGE/ELITE PASS RUSHING NOSE, CB1

BUT THERE ARE NO PROSPECTS WORTHY PICK 40, 41 AT: ELITE RECEIVING TE, ELITE PASS RUSHING NOSE

REMAINING POSITIONS: QB, WR, LT, EDGE, CB1

Yeah, that’s right, I don’t want to see any linebacker at 40 or 41. Not Channing Tindall. Not Chad Muma. Not even Nakobe Dean or Troy Andersen. This is not because they are bad prospects. They’re really good prospects!!!

But this is a positional experiment and I think that it’s evident by now that almost any non-Micah Parsons linebacker is lacking in impact value in the modern NFL. We’ve seen far too many exciting linebacker prospects in recent years churn out underwhelming careers: Devin White, Devin Bush, Kenneth Murray, Zaven Collins, Jamin Davis, Jahlani Tavai… even perfectly fine players like Patrick Queen, Tremaine Edmunds, and Jordyn Brooks… It’s not that they can’t play football, it merely falls into the same realm as being a guard or a strong safety or several other positions:

To have a real impact you can’t be good or great. You have to be generational at those positions like Kam Chancellor or Quenton Nelson.

And I don’t recall anyone putting all the blame or giving all the credit to Quenton Nelson depending on whether the Colts win or lose. We just go “Yeah, he’s so good” but only if you bring up Nelson. We don’t even think about him. The same really goes for virtually any linebacker who doesn’t rush the passer.

That’s how exceptional Bobby Wagner was and Pete Carroll already got his early pick to burn on a linebacker. It was Brooks, it was only two years ago, don’t go draft a coverage linebacker with one of your first three picks. Or a guard. Or a center. Or a blocking tight end. Or even a running back.

Don’t do it. Go for the fences while you’re finally somewhat close to the fence!

Are there really any QBs worthy of picks 40, 41?

I really hate drafting quarterbacks in the second round. It’s that nexus between being a first round pick (which really only matters in the top-20) and being kind of a more intriguing but usually flawed QB prospect in rounds three and later.

This class is a little more interesting because while there are no good first round prospects, there are a number of guys who would be interesting in the middle of day two like Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, or Carson Strong. I don’t expect Kenny Pickett to make it out of the top-12 and I expect Willis to be drafted on day one.

But if the Seahawks have a chance to draft a much better prospect at one of the other positions, then that’s what they should do.

At offensive tackle, Seattle could potentially be looking at Tyler Smith, Abraham Lucas, Bernhard Raimann, or Daniel Faalele.

At cornerback, maybe Kyler Gordon, Kaiir Elam, Trent McDuffie would fit if they fell that far. It could also be a weird spot for cornerbacks, as I believe that teams will jump on the good ones early to avoid missing out on one when it is so hard to find talent there that matches up with these incoming wideouts.

Edge is deeper and the ones you will hear about in this range could be Arnold Ebiketie, David Ojabo (but his injury should push him down Seattle’s board), Boye Mafe, Nik Bonitto, and Drake Jackson. But let’s not ignore finding that special interior pass rusher… Is that Devonte Wyatt? Logan Hall? Travis Jones? Wyatt and Jordan Davis have been all over the board. Is it possible Davis will develop into an elite pass rusher because of his elite athleticism?

Jordan Reid @Jordan_Reid

Logan Hall, Perrion Winfrey, Devonte Wyatt, Phidarian Mathis, and Travis Jones all made themselves some money this week. The depth of this IDL class is on Day 2. I think a lot of them will fly off of the board in the 2nd and 3rd round.

If I had to guess, two of the three picks by the Seahawks should be an offensive tackle who can replace Duane Brown (now or soon) AND an edge rusher OR someone who they feel is also a great interior pass rusher. I wouldn’t rule out a double-down play: Two tackles or two pass rushers. If Seattle went OT, OT, EDGE, is that wrong?

If the Seahawks go EDGE, EDGE, OT, is that so wrong?

Of course Seattle will trade down. Of course they could ignore this and pick centers and running backs! But who’s going to answer for all those key positions that the Seahawks don’t have budding superstars at?

I can accept a promising future for Dee Eskridge, Darrell Taylor, and Noah Fant, but I don’t accept that it makes wide receiver or edge rusher any less of a need. Extending Metcalf wouldn’t change that for me either. This is a difficult sport and the Rams saw Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr tear their ACLs last season, while second round pick Tutu Atwell went on IR early. The Bucs lost Chris Godwin at the end of the season. The depth at wide receiver is important, as is having multiple huge threats at the position.

Therefore, I wouldn’t completely rule out a wide receiver with pick 40 or 41 or whenever the Seahawks trade down. I wouldn’t rule it out in the third round. I would think it better for Seattle to take a chance on Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, or someone similar than to take “less of a chance” on a WILL linebacker or a center.

That’s not home run baseball.

Maybe then the best formula for the Seahawks looks something like this:

9-CB Sauce Gardner

40-OT Abe Lucas

41-EDGE Boye Mafe

Or something like this:

9-EDGE Travon Walker

40-CB Kyler Gordon

41-OT Bernhard Raimann

Or even something like this:

9-LT Charles Cross

40-OT Bernhard Raimann

41-EDGE David Ojabo

And you could try this:

9-OT Evan Neal

40-WR Jameson Williams

41-CB Kyler Gordon

Which of these trios would be best? Let me know in the comments.