The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams share one more thing in common now: Going into the season, neither team thought that a midseason game against the Arizona Cardinals would mean this much.
The Seahawks were Super Bowl champions and the Rams were Super Bowl favorites, but both teams are 4-4 and facing dire consequences if they lose to the Cardinals. Seattle plays Arizona this Sunday, and L.A.’s turn is next Sunday.
If either team loses to the suddenly-energized Cardinals with Gardner Minshew at quarterback — the Rams already lost to Jacoby Brissett’s Cardinals — what business do they really have thinking about the playoffs at this point? A loss to Arizona by the Seahawks wouldn’t just be demoralizing and telling, but it would make their margin for error extremely thin; Seattle would need to go 6-2 or better just to finish with double-digit wins.
The only sliver of hope is that we’ve never seen division standings like this in one conference before.
NFC Wild Card Race
Only 5 teams have ever won their division with a losing record — all since 2010, and all in the NFC — but two divisions could end up doing it this season:
The South is in danger of having a losing team for the fourth time (no other division has done it more than once) and the Panthers are in the lead to do it for a third time. Carolina did it in 2014 and 2025.
The NFC East has one winning team and it’s the Giants with J.J. McCarthy, New York’s third starting QB this season. Every team in the NFC East looks bad and only one of them can win the division. This makes it clear that 50% of the NFC’s divisions won’t send a team into the playoffs as a wild card.
That really simplifies the mission for Seattle:
3 wild card berths
6 contenders (if we include Arizona)
There will be an NFC West winner (probably the 49ers) and an NFC North winner, meaning there’s a 50/50 shot of being a wild card. If the Seahawks and Rams both beat the Cardinals, that all but eliminates Arizona.
Then the odds are 3/5. The 6-2 Bears, 5-2 Lions, 5-3 Packers, and 4-4 Rams are the other teams currently in that race.
That’s how “easy” making the playoffs could be for a team that is only 4-4 right now … and yet 4-5 would feel like a death knell.
If the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals, they could be in last place next week and then it almost doesn’t matter who wins between Arizona/L.A. because someone will build a bigger lead over Seattle. Then the season could soon become more about how to be better next year (including finding out what they have in Jalen Milroe) and not about how to be better than the Rams and 49ers this year.
First the Seahawks need to establish that they’re still better than the Cardinals.
What do you expect?
The Seahawks really must go into their bye week at 6-4 after having beaten the Cardinals and Raiders. Green Bay offers the easiest path towards Seattle climbing up the standings in the short term, as the Packers face the Patriots this week and the Vikings next week.
If the Seahawks go into the bye at 5-5, then they return with a must-win game against the 49ers. Wiggle room will be important.
Seattle’s offense will look quite a bit different than they did at the very start of the season:
Drew Lock at QB (although he started against AZ in Week 2)
Zach Charbonnet at RB
Quenton Nelson at LG / Grey Zabel at RG
On Charles Cross and Rashid Shaheed, Mike Macdonald says that both could return this week against the Cardinals. After Monday’s start, I’m not so sure that Josh Jones isn’t a better option at right tackle than Abe Lucas. Anthony Bradford could also make an argument that the Seahawks were running better when he was at right guard.
For the time being, little can be assumed about Seattle’s offense except that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best player in the NFL.
Who will lead the team in carries?
Who will rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in targets?
What is the best offensive line combination?
Who should call plays?
Who should start at QB?
Did Brian Fleury break A.J. Barner?
Your expectation is as good as mine!
For the ninth time in this season, let’s set our Seaside Joe community expectations—it only takes a minute:
ANSWER WEEK 9 EXPECTATIONS SURVEY HERE!
What did you answer and why? What changes would you make right now?
Extend Quenton Nelson Soon
The Seahawks have successfully re-signed all three players who they have traded for since 2024 (and two of those contracts were great ideas!) but it still makes me nervous to think of Nelson as a rental.
As you can see in the latest All-22 video, Nelson is a revelation at left guard. Seattle just needs to use him more in the run game.
Unfortunately what else stands out in the film is just how inconsistent many other Seahawks offensive starters have been this season. Perhaps most surprising of all is the blocking deficiencies by Barner, who was previously considered one of the best blocking tight ends in the league.
Is this because of the change at offensive coordinator? Could be related. What’s even more obvious is Barner’s extreme decline in usefulness as a receiver—in his last five games, just 13 catches on 22 targets (59%) for 113 yards (5.1 yards per target), and 0 touchdowns.
Barner may not be Brock Bowers, but these are numbers suited for Pharoah Brown. This would be one situation worth figuring out soon given Seattle’s need for a second receiving threat.
It would also feel great to extend Nelson soon, as the Seahawks need him in both the present and the future. I don’t doubt John Schneider will take care of him eventually, but a boost of excitement would come as a huge relief right now.
Q did pass the eye test for me but when a professional breaks down tape like this it is eye-opening and exciting that we have a blocker of this caliber. Let's get him extended asap!!
I can't see the Seahawks struggling against Arizona. We're not as bad as Chicago made us look, and the Cardinals aren't as good as Dallas made them look.