Pete Carroll's commitment to the run made the Seahawks evolutionary, not ancient
Pete Carroll's commitment to the run made the Seahawks evolutionary, not ancient
Running backs are enjoying their day in the sun again thanks to the NFL pendulum: Seaside Joe 1353
Did Pete Carroll give the Seattle Seahawks an advantage over other teams by continuing to value the run game at a time when so many of their rivals were hyper-focused on being able to execute and stop the pass?
Does my dog Clark come find me everyday at 11 A.M. and 5 P.M. because that’s when breakfast and dinner happen?
The surface-level moves that support such an argument would start with trading a franchise quarterback and drafting a top-tier running back prospect. But then other moves in the last few years would seem counter-intuitive to a run-first approach*, like drafting two offensive tackles out of college offenses that ranked in the bottom-three for rushing attempts, plucking an offensive coordinator out of the Sean McVay coaching tree, and signing two receivers to contracts worth $24 million and $17 million per year, respectively.
*When I say “run-first,” I only mean that personnel and coaching decisions begin with how to gain a hell of a lot of rushing yards against defenses, not a literal “we run the ball to setup the pass” meaning.
And the result of those moves this season:
The Seahawks rank fifth in yards per carry (5.0), 13th in rushing yards per game (124.3), and they have four contests with at least 150 rushing yards, tied for sixth-most in the NFL. Of the five teams with more, the Ravens, Bears, Falcons, and Giants all feature quarterbacks more adept at running than passing, with the Browns as the only exception. While Geno Smith isn’t immobile (218 rushing yards, 4.8 YPC), Seattle’s production on the ground is mostly coming from the backs, with Kenneth Walker ranked fourth in rushing yards (529) and first in rushing touchdowns (7) since Week 5.
Seattle averaged 5.0 yards per carry with Rashaad Penny last season too, but that was their best season on the ground since averaging 5.3 YPC in 2014. In 2016 and 2017, the Seahawks averaged just 3.9 and 4.0 YPC, respectively, and Seattle ranked 18th and 13th in scoring over those seasons.
Though the Seahawks are only ranked 18th in rushing DVOA in 2022, it’s apparent that Pete Carroll remains committed to trying to be the best “running back football offense” in the league. Perhaps the only teams in the NFL doing that as good or better today are the Browns (Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt), Jaguars (Travis Etienne), Packers (Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon), Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard), Titans (Derrick Henry), Panthers (D’Onta Foreman, following Christian McCaffrey), and Lions (Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift).
Notably, each of those teams drafted a running back in the first or second round, on top of making an investment in offensive linemen, many of whom are now among the most-respected in the league.
Remember, the Seahawks and Lions engaged in 48-45 battle in which the two sides combined for 380 rushing yards and five scores on the ground, including second half touchdown runs of 51 (Williams), 41 and 36 yards (Penny on both).
Since 2018, the Seahawks have drafted four running backs and six offensive linemen. Seattle and Detroit are the only two teams to draft two top-50 running backs in the last five years, and the Lions have been deeply committed to building a strong run-blocking offensive line: Detroit ranks fourth in adjusted offensive line yards and is tied with Seattle for seventh in rushing yards before contact (3.1) per run.
Between 2016-2021, the Lions spent three first round picks (Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Penei Sewell) and one third round pick (Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson) on offensive linemen. The Seahawks spent one first (Charles Cross) and two thirds (Damien Lewis, Abe Lucas) over the past three years on linemen currently starting on offense. Detroit pick D’Andre Swift 35th overall in 2020, while Seattle chose Kenneth Walker 41st in 2022.
So yes, it is apparent that there are teams and head coaches and general managers out there who have remained committed to the run even as other teams and seemingly most NFL analysts have lost sight of anything besides “finding the next Josh Allen” and leading the NFL in passing yards. And yes, it is still true that the NFL’s leading passer has never won the Super Bowl.
But is the commitment to the run game resulting in on-field success? As highlighted on NFL Live this week: Yep.
The too long didn’t watch explanation: Teams are having more success on the ground THAN EVER and it’s largely because defenses are not built to stop them in the modern passing era.
Now, this is coming from someone who I find to be relatively stupid (myself) when it comes to understanding schemes and the countless intricacies of building a successful offense or defense, but I kind of thought we all saw this coming. The most rare and valuable kind of defensive football player is one who can play every snap, run or pass, without becoming a liability.
Aaron Donald. Myles Garrett. Bobby Wagner. Fred Warner.
A player like Justin Houston might finish with 15 sacks this season, but he’s only on the field for obvious passing situations. That means that the Ravens have to carry a counter to Houston the roster, one who isn’t a liability against the run. Meanwhile, Khalil Mack might “only” get 10 sacks, but he’s one of the best run defenders in the game too. Players like Mack are two rolled into one and allow teams to carry an additional man on the 53.
At a certain point though, it seemed that only the pass rushers, the coverage linebackers, and the lockdown corners were being valued. Not the “space eaters,” as Dan Orlovsky put it. Not the “off-ball” variety of linebacker like K.J. Wright. And asking whether a cornerback can tackle was like asking Robin Williams his age before letting him into Studio 54.
“Who cares??? It’s Mork!”
So wasn’t this timeline inevitable and predictable? Teams start passing the shit out of the ball>defenses start valuing pass rush and solid coverage over stopping the run>defenses get soft>offenses that didn’t lose commitment to a power running attack start to run over and through those defenses.
These days, defenses spend 65% of the time in nickel, leaving themselves more vulnerable against the run. This year, the NFL is collectively averaging 4.5 yards per carry—THE HIGHEST IN LEAGUE HISTORY!
The majority of that production is coming from power and counter rushing concepts, according to PFF:
PFF notes a much higher success rate for counter and power rushing concepts that outside zone:
I was shocked to learn that teams were averaging the highest YPC in NFL history, even if I expected defenses to get soft against the run over these coming years. So I went back and looked at every average NFL rushing season per team going back to 1999 and the results were dramatic and the opposite of what you’d expect going from a season like 2005 in which Shaun Alexander won MVP to a time when many people spit on first round running backs:
2022* - 457 rushing attempts per team, 2,071 rushing yards, 4.5 YPC, 17 TD (pace)
2021* - 453 rushing attempts per team, 1,959 yards, 4.3 YPC, 16 TD
*17-game seasons
2020 - 431 rushing attempts per team, 1,902 yards, 4.4 YPC, 16 TD
2019 - 418 rushing attempts per team, 1,806 yards, 4.3 YPC, 14 TD
2018 - 415 rushing attempts per team, 1,831 yards, 4.4 YPC, 14 TD
2017 - 430 rushing attempts per team, 1,755 yards, 4.1 YPC, 12 TD
2016 - 416 rushing attempts per team, 1,742 yards, 4.2 YPC, 14 TD
2015 - 421 rushing attempts per team, 1,741 yards, 4.1 YPC, 11 TD
2014 - 428 rushing attempts per team, 1,781 yards, 4.2 YPC, 12 TD
2013 - 433 rushing attempts per team, 1,806 yards, 4.2 YPC, 13 TD
2012 - 435 rushing attempts per team, 1,854 yards, 4.3 YPC, 12.5 TD
2011 - 437 rushing attempts per team, 1,874 yards, 4.3 YPC, 12.5 TD
2010 - 435 rushing attempts per team, 1,831 yards, 4.2 YPC, 12.5 TD
2009 - 440 rushing attempts per team, 1,866 yards, 4.2 YPC, 13 TD
2008 - 441 rushing attempts per team, 1,855 yards, 4.2 YPC, 15 TD
2007 - 437 rushing attempts per team, 1,774 yards, 4.1 YPC, 12 TD
2006 - 451 rushing attempts per team, 1,876 yards, 4.2 YPC, 13 TD
2005 - 449 rushing attempts per team, 1,800 yards, 4.0 YPC, 13.5 TD
2004 - 451 rushing attempts per team, 1,865 yards, 4.1 YPC, 13 TD
2003 - 453 rushing attempts per team, 1,885 yards, 4.2 YPC, 13 TD
2002 - 441 rushing attempts per team, 1,858 yards, 4.2 YPC, 14 TD
2001 - 441 rushing attempts per team, 1,788 yards, 4.1 YPC, 12 TD
2000 - 441 rushing attempts per team, 1,801 yards, 4.1 YPC, 13 TD
1999 - 437 rushing attempts per team, 1,703 yards, 3.9 YPC, 12 TD
When Alexander won MVP, he had 370 carries for 1,880 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 5.1 yards per carry. But Alexander wasn’t the only running back who basically broke down and went out of commission after a 400+ carry season (you gotta include playoff touches too), so teams rarely put all of the pressure on one player to handle that position anymore.
The Colts did give Jonathan Taylor 372 touches in 2021, and with him already missing three games this season we could be seeing a bit of the ramifications of that decision. The Eagles led the league in rushing last season, but no one player had more than 800 yards.
Philadelphia has the benefit of a dual threat quarterback who led the team in rushing last season and is averaging 47.4 yards per game since the start of 2021, but not all teams get to have Jalen Hurts. Not all teams want to have Jalen Hurts. However, Hurts did emerge from an offensive system in college, a version of the Air Raid under head coach Lincoln Riley, that could be having a dramatic impact on the league and Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks.
And it’s not just because of how Seattle passes the football, even though the Seahawks rank first in passer rating (106.4, a hair above the Eagles) and sixth in yards per pass attempt (7.8). It’s also how the run the ball and how they block for Walker.
That also traces back to Riley. Which is something I’ll cover in a future post on Seaside Joe because this one ran very long.
The Seahawks still aren’t even running the ball as successfully as Pete Carroll would like them to, but from Week 3-Week 9, Seattle managed to rank fifth in rushing yards and third in yards per carry even in spite of: The loss of Rashaad Penny to another injury, the unusual rotation at right guard, and starting two rookie offensive tackles out of pass-heavy air raid offenses. If this is what the Seahawks run game looks like before its ready, what could Pete’s rushing offense look like by next year?
Or maybe even by this year’s playoffs.
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Talk about validating Pete
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/sudden-struggles-of-tom-brady-and-aaron-rodgers-show-why-teams-should-build-around-qb-limitations-011802183.html
Your analysis is spot on Kenneth
Great article.
Ruining has been very underrated in the West Coast offense. What's that Jerry Rice quick slant, but hitting the recover in stride past the line if scrimmage.
It's an extended 'run' play where you only have to beat the safeties after catch.
When Pete says point guard, that's what he's saying.
Can you imagine a healthy Penny in this offense? I did in the off season, and knew Smith and Lock were/are capable of those throws if we could ruin the ball.
It's working pretty good.