Seahawks will go as far as Scott Huff's OL will take them

Skeptical Seahawks fans worry about a(nother) porous offensive line in 2024: Seaside Joe 1986

On the February day that the Seahawks hired Scott Huff to be the new offensive line coach, I wrote an article attempting to solve how Seattle would “rebuild the o-line in Ryan Grubb’s vision”. There wasn’t a lot of information out there yet, Huff was very new to the team and Grubb wasn’t hired long before him, but here were a couple of my takeaways:

• I wrote that Damien Lewis could cost about $13 million per season (he ultimately signed for $13.25 million) and that it was “difficult for me to see the justification to pay a guard that much at a time when all the coaches are new, barring an endorsement by John Schneider”.

• I wrote that the Seahawks probably wouldn’t keep any of their free agent offensive linemen (Evan Brown, Phil Haynes, Jason Peters, Jake Curhan, and Lewis) but maybe a cheap and versatile C/G option like Brown would be the most sensible.

• And I wrote, as I often have to every draft season, that picking a guard or center in the first round was a highly unlikely thing for Seattle to do.

Just as hiring Grubb meant that the Seahawks were “definitely” going to draft Michael Penix, Jr., hiring Huff meant that the Seahawks were “definitely” going to draft Washington tackle Troy Fautanu. But the first round of the draft is almost exclusively reserved for tackles (this is mostly true of all NFL teams, but especially true for Seattle which I wrote about here) and if Abraham Lucas doesn’t start the season on PUP, it’s even more clear why the Seahawks didn’t feel pressed to force an offensive line pick over getting Byron Murphy II at a great value.

When the narrative could have been “The Seahawks fired Pete Carroll so therefore everything’s going to be different now!”, I did what I always do which is lean on Seattle’s clearly defined organizational history and identity, something that probably led them to Pete in the first place and was only solidified during his 14 years at the helm, which is…

The Seahawks do not care that much about guards and centers unless they come at a discount! And since February, the Seahawks offseason moves at guard and center followed that path right down to the fine print, even including their most recent addition to the offensive line.

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The Seahawks did not retain Lewis because he did end up costing $13 million, and they didn’t retain any of their other free agents, only tendering exclusive-rights free agents McClendon Curtis and Raiqwon O’Neal. Then Seattle landed Laken Tomlinson after he was released by the Jets, a very typical Seahawks guard addition in that he was once considered good and he now only costs $1.2 million. Think Luke Joeckel or Jahri Evans.

The Seahawks also added George Fant, who like Tomlinson started for a team most of last season, but Seattle got him for only $3.7 million guaranteed. Compare that to a tackle like Jermaine Eluemunor, a very Fant-ish like player but who the Giants paid $6.75 million guaranteed to go to New York. The Seahawks much more prefer a similar offensive lineman who costs half as much.

And Nick Harris just the new Evan Brown. I wrote that the Seahawks might keep Brown for his versatility as someone who could backup all three interior spots, and Harris just the same as that but with a history of playing at UW when Huff was there. Brown got $1.1 million guaranteed from Arizona, Harris got $1 million guaranteed from Seattle.

In addition to tendering Curtis and O’Neal, and adding International Pathway Program player Max Pircher, that was the Seahawks offensive line free agency and I think it was as predictable as any other year despite the new coaching staff.

In the draft, the Seahawks turned down the opportunity to draft tackles Fautanu, Amarius Mims, and Tyler Guyton in the first round, as well as interior options Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, and Jackson Powers-Johnson. Nothing out of the ordinary there for Seattle. Eventually leading the Seahawks to getting a player in the third round who many experts said could be the best right guard in the entire draft, Christian Haynes.

If Haynes was not available, I don’t think that the Seahawks would have picked a different guard just to pick a guard. I think Haynes was just the player at 3.81 who they had the highest grade on and if he wasn’t available, John Schneider may have gone in an entirely different direction which is also how he basically said he wants to operate at any point before the sixth round; that drafting “for need” before then had proven to lead to the most mistakes.

That may also be why Schneider picked two offensive linemen (Sataoa Laumea, Michael Jerrell) in that very sixth round.

Until this week, the Seahawks 2024 offensive line was going exactly as expected.

The Seahawks have a cheap offensive line: $26.2 million in cap space allocated to offensive linemen ranks 32nd in the NFL. The Seahawks did not invest their one early pick on an offensive lineman, as they rarely do unless it’s a tackle and the team really needs a tackle. The Seahawks do not believe that in order to have a functional offense that they need to invest half of their resources dedicated to offense towards the line, which some teams clearly do believe, as 5 of 11 starters do play on that unit.

Damien Lewis’s Panthers put $72 of their $146 million on offense into the offensive line. The Chiefs and Colts also spend almost three times as much on the offensive line than the Seahawks do, with the Rams and Falcons not far behind.

And even when the Seahawks do add an offensive linemen who is considered to be one of the best at his position in the league, Connor Williams had to be a wounded animal for Seattle to open their door to him. If Williams went into free agency with a clean bill of health, it is unlikely that the Seahawks would have entertained paying the $10 million annual salary or $20 million guarantee that he would have been asking for. Instead, the Seahawks signed him for $3 million guaranteed because that’s the most his agent could get after his second career torn ACL.

If Seattle’s new interior offensive line is Tomlinson, Williams, and Haynes, it will certainly be different than 2023’s version—but will it be better?

The Seahawks aren’t replacing Lewis because he’s bad, they’re replacing him because he was too good for what they felt they could afford. Lewis has been ranked as a top-10 left guard by Brandon Thorn after each of the last two seasons. Haynes is a rookie who isn’t being handed a starting job on the right side; Haynes filled in at left guard recently with Tomlinson having a rest day. It’s wait-and-see with regards to Williams’ health and durability for a 17-game season.

This is not to say that 2024 hasn’t been mostly good news.

It’s day after day of positive reports on Charles Cross, which I find to be more believable because he was a top-10 pick. Lucas might actually not miss considerable time in the regular season. Connor Williams should be a huge upgrade to Brown, if he’s healthy. And Seattle now has at least three or four guards on the roster who are not starting yet who could give fans some hope of a midseason upgrade if needed, including Haynes, Curtis, Harris, and so forth.

Yeah, mostly all good news.

But Seahawks fans know the burn of a promising offensive line in the preseason and a bottom-5 ranking by the next offseason. The Seahawks offense should go as far as Huff’s offensive line will take them and that was also reflected in your answers on the most recent fan survey.

Part I of your answers about Geno Smith and Mike Macdonald are here and now I’ll share how the three different group answers compare to one another.

Remember: Control Group is fans who think the Seahawks will win between 8-10 games, Test Group is fans who think the Seahawks will win 11+ games, and “Seeds of Doubt Grou” expect the Seahawks to win fewer than 8 games in 2024.

I asked each of you the same question: “The 2024 Seahawks offensive line will…” either be ranked top-10, be a “middling” group in the middle, or rank in the bottom-10. While most Seahawks fans seem to agree that Seattle’s offensive line will be a middling unit in 2024, an improvement from last season, there is no question that the really optimistic fans are really high on the OL, while the seeds of doubts group is really low on it:

Control Group: 87% middling, 5.5% top-10, 7.5% bottom-10

Test Group: 74% middling, 24% top-10, 2% bottom-10

Doubts Group: 72% middling, 3% top-10, 25% bottom-10

The 11+ wins crowd is just as sure that the offensive line could be a top-10 unit this year as the Seeds of Doubt group is that the offensive line could be a bottom-10 unit. One-fourth of each group fell into one of those categories. I’ll share the charts below.

Control Group:

Ultra-positivity:

Seeds of Doubt:

I also asked you each to share some of your thoughts on the offensive line in one sentence or less. I apologize that due to time constraints (a Seaside Joe/Seaside Jay wedding is happening in less than 24 hours) I can’t share much of that today. I will try and get a word bubble generator going soon.

But unsurprisingly, the Control Group had a lot of “It’s a work in progress that is improving” type answers; The Test Group was actually a lot of the same, which makes sense because again most people fall into the RED piece of pie of being a middling unit; and the Seeds of Doubt was similar but a few more questions about Abe Lucas and “trying old players”.

I would be remiss not to add that these surveys were conducted prior to Connor Williams.

Improving the offensive line is a constant concern voiced by Seahawks fans, and it feels like this year most fans agree that it seems like Seattle is trying a little bit harder. I don’t know if the Seahawks actually are trying harder. They drafted Lewis in the third round four years ago, they just repeated that move with Haynes to replace Lewis. They signed three veteran starters who were available for cheap for various reasons. They’re the cheapest offensive line in the entire league and a long ways from just the average; if the Seahawks OL ranks 20th, they’re still punching well above their weight class.

Instead, the hope is primarily put on the shoulders of Grubb and Huff. This unit may go as far as their system takes them, and this offense may go as far as the offensive line allows them.

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Continuing yesterday’s theme of talking about the Seahawks team from the year that is the same as our consecutive days streak—1,986—the 1986 Seahawks went 10-6 after winning their last five games in a row. Seattle blew a 5-2 record by losing four games in a row in the middle of the season (including three straight in which they only scored 7 points) and the rebound (almost all blowout victories) was too little too late, as the Seahawks missed the playoffs.

What do you remember about the ‘86 Seahawks?