Seahawks are battle-tested, but Patriots aren't Seattle-tested

Drake Maye didn't win MVP, but the Seahawks already faced the MVP 3 times anyway

Drake Maye missed out on winning MVP by a single first place vote and suffice it to say that Sam Darnold did not. Darnold also didn’t win MVP. It’s doubtful that Darnold finished top-5 on anyone’s ballot.

But that’s a regular season award and now we’re headed into the finale of the playoffs for a Super Bowl between Darnold’s Seahawks and Maye’s Patriots. How would the voting go for a playoffs MVP so far?

• Darnold leads all playoff QBs with +23.5 EPA and +.40 EPA per dropback

• Darnold is completing 70% of his passes for 235 yards per game, 4 TD/0 INT, 8.9 Y/A

• If you name a playoff passing category of value, Darnold is probably first

• Maye is 11th out of 15 QBs in EPA at -17.7 and 10th in EPA/dropback at -.18

• Maye is completing 56% for 177 yards per game, 4 TD/2 INT, 6 fumbles, 6.9 Y/A

• If MVP voting included the playoffs, how many more votes shy of Matthew Stafford would May have finished?

Now this is not a “shit on Drake Maye” post because he’s had a remarkable season and while his easy schedule is important, so is his difficult supporting cast and situation.

But if we’re talking about MATCHUPS, who is more battle-tested ready for the Super Bowl?

• Seahawks #1 defense that has faced the MVP 3x already against a struggling quarterback

• Patriots #9 defense that just faced Jarrett Stidham against a quarterback who is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP?

I’m not counting the chickens before they hatch. The Seahawks have to go execute one more time. But it’s important to analyze the important questions on both teams before the Super Bowl and for me today that was digging deeper into the narrative that the Patriots had the easiest schedule in the league and the Seahawks were in the toughest division in the NFL.

Some narratives are true.

QB Schedule Comparison: Seahawks vs Patriots

If you head to NFL.com and go to their “NFL Pro” site with Next Gen Stats, you will find that Drake Maye was the most valuable quarterback in the league this year for EPA per dropback. “Estimated Points Added” is described as “yards gained in terms of points scored”, or in other words the value of a play as it relates to the likelihood of scoring points.

When a team gains +7 passing EPA in a game, they are 80% likely to win that game.

So obviously Maye is the highest-ranked QB that the Seahawks have faced this year because he’s number one overall. However, he’s not separated that much from Matthew Stafford (#2) or Brock Purdy (#4) in the same category.

The Seahawks faced those two quarterbacks a total of six times, went 4-2, and held them to -10 (negative) EPA a total of three times. That includes four straight wins against them.

I don’t bring this up to say that because Purdy can’t beat the Seahawks that Maye can’t beat the Seahawks. Maye’s ascension from impressive second-year player to superstar could happen on Sunday. (Although in the playoffs, Maye ranks 11th out of 15 QBs in EPA.)

Instead, I mention this comparison from Maye to two other quarterbacks that the Seahawks faced six times already because Seattle’s battle-tested for this.

Are the Patriots ready for an actually-good offense?

I tracked the 20 games that the Patriots have played and the 21 separate QB performances with at least 10 passes (Lamar/Huntley split time) and Josh Allen was the only QB in the top-10 of EPA per dropback at 9th overall.

Allen ranked barely above an average 0.0 EPA (which would mean the average passing play was not a net positive) and until the playoffs he was the ONLY QB that the Patriots faced who wasn’t in the red.

Patriots 21 QBs faced in 2025:

(Not all QBs had enough pass attempts to qualify, but there were 50 QBs who had at least 100 attempts meaning that Brady Cook was dead last, Dillon Gabriel was 42nd, and Jarrett Stidham didn’t even play until the AFC title game.)

Obviously I believe that Allen is an MVP-caliber player no matter what EPA per dropback says.

That being said, the last time Allen faced the Patriots he had three touchdowns (James Cook had over 100 rushing yards and 2 TDs) as the Bills came back from a 21-0 deficit to win 35-31.

It would be easier to say that the Patriots are a defense that merely struggled against one great quarterback in the same way that Seattle has struggled against Matthew Stafford … if not for the fact that we have almost zero other examples of the Patriots going against good quarterbacks and a lot of examples against non-NFL caliber quarterbacks.

Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud “flashing immense talent” is not the same as being top-10 quarterbacks (Herbert didn’t even crack top-16 in EPA/db) and especially not when the playoffs have hit, which is historically when they’ll lose to almost anybody.

Here’s a better question: How many of those quarterbacks will have starting jobs next season?

I see 7 strong bets (Allen, Herbert, Stroud, Lamar, Ward, Baker, and Dart) out of 20, so maybe at least half of them will not. Facing Allen twice, that means that more than half of New England’s games were against backup-caliber quarterbacks. How does this compare to the Seahawks’ slate?

Seahawks’ 15 QBs faced in 2025:

Although I’ve come to a similar conclusion (at least 7 starters next season), the Seahawks faced Stafford and Purdy three times each meaning that 11 of their 19 games were against starters and 6 of 19 were against top-5 starters this season*.

*If you take issue with Purdy being called “top-5” I don’t even disagree with you — but is he better than CJ Stroud? I think he is. He’s at least the same caliber.

Also:

• Josh Allen was GOOD against the Patriots BOTH times.

• But the Seahawks held Stafford to his WORST game of the season in Week 11 and Purdy to his TWO WORST games of the season in Week 18 and the playoffs!

For other 2026 starters you could also add Aaron Rodgers (for both teams), Bryce Young (for both teams), and also possibly Kyler Murray and also possibly Jacoby Brissett to those lists (for Seattle). Now try scraping the bottom of the respective schedules.

What about QBs who might not be in the NFL next year?

Max Brosmer might have been the worst quarterback to throw a pass in the NFL this season and Seattle caught that “break” (did the Vikings actually stand a better chance with J.J. McCarthy?) but the Patriots have 13 games on that schedule who would be ranked 27th or worse. I’d say that the Seahawks have six comparable games, including Kirk Cousins, Rivers, and Brosmer.

How many QBs faced the Patriots who aren’t even backups next year? At least these four:

• Quinn Ewers

• Jarrett Stidham (in the most important game of the year)

• Brady Cook

• Dillon Gabriel

Maybe they’ll be backups, maybe they won’t. Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco at least toe the line for me. That’s eight. That’s almost half of the schedule.

For me, Brosmer and Rivers are the only easy callouts.

The Seahawks defense has faced the full gamut of quarterback quality this season — from Week 1 to the NFC Championship, from Brosmer to Stafford — and strutted against all of them with few exceptions. Seattle drew Brosmer once and New England drew Brady Cook once. Comparable.

But how the defenses have been battle-tested against good, above-average, and average quarterbacks doesn’t require analytics or stats. Usually you know all you need to know from a name.

The Seahawks faced the MVP three times and have proven they can shut him down and that’s with a top-2 receiver (Puka Nacua) that Maye doesn’t have. Seattle’s defense has proven to us that they’re at least capable of forcing Maye into a bad night.

The Patriots faced Josh Allen twice and…he was good twice. Few would argue that Darnold has been as good as Allen (Allen did get two first place MVP votes—either of those votes to Maye could have made him MVP) although in the playoffs it wouldn’t be a close race — Darnold owns 2 of the top-4 playoff games in EPA per dropback out of a total of 24.

Are the Patriots as likely to stop a “good” quarterback as the Seahawks are to stop a “great” quarterback?

The Seahawks defense would get my vote.

Getting to Joe you, getting to Joe all about you

Where you at??? Everywhere!

As of this writing, 75 of you (!!!) have checked in from around the globe on Thursday’s Seaside Joe asking for people to comment their location and Seahawks fan stories. I know it’s 75 because I’ve painstakingly catalogued all the different locations!

But there was one answer that blew my mind:

Konatrader78 is going to be watching the Super Bowl off the coast of Antarctica at Celebrity Equinox!

I thought Celebrity Equinox was just where Michael Strahan went to go workout but apparently it’s also a cruise line that will go to the bottom of the Earth and I’m jealous. I’ve always been curious about traveling to that part of the world but you’re going to be watching the Seahawks in the Super Bowl from there!

(Apparently the Senator is also there???)

Please keep checking in where you’re from and how you got here.

Many of you said nice things about Seaside Joe and just know that if I didn’t reply directly to you that I read every word and I appreciate it.

I also liked this rally cry in particular:

Jeffe Duran: I didn't realize it at the time but in 2013 and 2014 I was in my early 20's and those really were the greatest sports memories of my life. I remember thinking how amazing what we were watching was and how they could be a dynasty and how they were gonna go down as the best defense ever because of the opportunities in front of them. This time around, I'm just enjoying it. I don't care if they never get to this stage again, just win this game. Win by 100 or win by 1, I truly do not care. Forget the legacy talk, forget the "where does this defense rank all time" bullshit they throw out about these things. This game is all that matters, go out there and play Seahawks football for 60 minutes and you guys WILL be world champions!! I hope everyone truly just enjoys this moment and watches it with some people you care about and get ready to make lifelong memories, GO HAWKS!!

About 12 of you were free subscribers who left comments for the first time and if you did I gave you a 30-day comp subscription to Regular Joes. I don’t know if that’s even something you want but it’s worth a shot! You can participate in the live chat on Sunday if you want to now.

If any other freebies leave a comment, I’ll do that same.

I also checked to see HOW some of you became fans and so far my favorite answer is West Seattle Tim’s that a gumball machine told him to do it.

Seaside Joe 2531