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šBreaking down why the Seahawks are playoff longshots
For centuries, fans have looked at the standings and the number of games left to determine how probable it is that their favorite football team will make the playoffs. Those archaic methods of getting your hopes up are over and Seattleās 5% chance to make the playoffs is, if anything, too optimistic.
Average time to read this article: 5 minutes
The Seahawks being virtually out of contention is so important right now because it will determine how John Schneider and Mike Macdonald approach the second half of the season, but it is also something most fans donāt realize because āthe standingsā offer hope.
THIS is why the Seahawks are not going to make the playoffs:
Wild Card
It āseems likeā the Seahawks are only two games back of the wild card race with half of the season left, but that hope is a red herring. Anything less than 7-1 over the last 8 games could be too little, too late.
Wild Card spot #1
The very worst wild card team is 6-3, two games better than the Seahawks. The Vikings are 6-2, so if they win their next game against the 2-7 Jaguars, theyāll be 3 games better than Seattle; so long as the Lions (already beat the Seahawks) or Vikings win the NFC North, which is almost guaranteed, the other team will sew up one wild card over the Seahawks.
Even if Seattle beats Minnesota in Week 16, itās not likely to play a factor in the wild card race.
Wild Card spot #2
The next wild card team is the 6-2 Eagles, so if they beat the 3-5 Cowboys (without Dak Prescott) this week, theyāll also have a 3-game advantage over the Seahawks. Even if Philadelphia wins the NFC East and puts the 7-2 Washington Moons into the wild card, thereās virtually no chance Seattle could ever catch them. (Washington just traded for CB Marshon Lattimore.)
Wild Card spot #3
That only leaves the 6-3 Packers, and even if Green Bay collapses (Seahawks-Packers Week 15), the Seahawks would still have to be better than the Rams and 49ers, two teams that have beaten them already and look more composed than Seattle does this season. And if one of those two teams wins the NFC West, the Seahawks still need to prove that theyāre better than the other team and the Cardinals, which is no longer a certainty.
And this only matters if: Packers collapse, Bears fail, Bucs and Cowboys donāt rebound, and the Seahawks finish second in the NFC West. Every team in the NFC except the Cowboys, Panthers, and Giants already have more conference wins (which is the second tiebreaker after head-to-head) than Seattle does AND the Seahawks already lost to the Giants.
Being 1-4 against NFC competition, the Seahawks may need to go 7-0 against the NFC the rest of the way to even have a shot. That would mean going 3-0 in San Francisco, L.A., and Arizona, beating the Bears in Chicago when itās -10 degrees, and going 3-0 at home against Arizona, Green Bay, and Minnesota.
The Seahawks have lost 5 of the last 6 and four straight games at home.
The NFC West
Winning the division is slightly less absurd than the wild card, but would require Seattle going on a historic franchise run that rivals (if not tops) 2012ās amazing run to the playoffs after a 6-5 start.
5-4 Cardinals (2-0 NFC West, 3-3 NFC)
Next 3: vs Jets, bye, at Seahawks, at Vikings
The Cardinals could lose their next 3 games, the Seahawks could win their next 3 games, and you will see that might STILL not be enough!
Even if the Cardinals lose their next three games, they would still be 5-7 overall, 2-1 NFC West, 3-5 NFC. If the Seahawks won their next three (a HUGE ask) they would be 7-5, 2-2, 3-4. Seattle ācaughtā Arizona, but the next game is Seahawks-Cardinals in Arizona.
If the Cardinals won that game, they would even the series and Seattleās division record would fall to 2-3 with a 3-5 conference record. The next two games after that: Seattleās next 2 games after that are against probable playoff teams, while Arizonaās next 2 games are against teams picking in the top-5.
Cardinals last 4: Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, 49ers
Seahawks last 4: Packers, Vikings, at Bears, at Rams
And remember this scenario is only if the Seahawks gain THREE GAMES on the Cardinals in the next THREE GAMES. If this is how hard it is to get ahead of the Cardinals, you already know the treacherous road ahead to beat the Rams and 49ers.
4-4 Rams (2-1 NFC West, 3-4 NFC)
4-4 49ers (1-2 NFC West, 2-3 NFC)
The Niners are coming off of a bye and next face the Bucs in Tampa. If they lose, Seattle has a glimmer of hope to get ahead of one team in the division: The 49ers and Seahawks would have the same record, similar division and conference records. Thatās if they lose.
If they beat the Bucs in Christian McCaffreyās 2024 debut, they will be a game over Seattle. Then the Sehaawks and 49ers play in Santa Clara:
If the Seahawks lose, theyāre done! (4-6 overall, 0-3 NFC West)
If the Seahawks win, theyāre ahead of the 49ers for one week (5-5 overall, 1-2 NFC West, 2-4 NFC) and thatās about it
Beating the 49ers (something that Seattle has never done with Geno Smith as the QB, which Iām mostly using for timeline purposes) only gives the Seahawks a chance to be better than the 49ers. It doesnāt help them much with Arizona or L.A. and the Rams are hitting a soft spot on their schedule:
Rams next 4: Dolphins, at Patriots, Eagles, at Saints
Seattle already lost to the Rams and 49ers, so itās not good enough to just catch up and have the same record; if the Seahawks lose either of those road games, their season would be over; if the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals, their season would most likely be over; and if the Seahawks go 5-3 the rest of the way, there may be no scenario that leads to the playoffs.
Even 6-2 over the next 8 and finishing 10-7 could be too little, too late. The Seahawks need to be at least 6-1 against the NFC, at least 4-1 on the road, and a perfect 4-0 against the NFC West.
Iām all for magic, but this season has been anything but perfect.
BONUS: 6 players the Seahawks should trade on Tuesday
Seaside Joe 2045
Average time to pop my hope ballon 5 minutes. š„¹
I'm more of a one day, one game, one win at a time. My expectations of making the playoffs were never high probability, and those probabilities have proven correct. Rookie head coach. Rookie Offensive coordinator. Rookies at head coach rarely win immediately, and often not till their second or third stop on the coaching trail. I hope that isn't necessary. Mike might have success in his second or third year here. Doesn't look bright right now, but ...
I was very enthusiastic about our improvements on defense. We stopped the run, and mostly stopped the pass against a team we have a history of failing to do any of those things. The offense was entertaining and off and on, impressive considering the OL problems. OMG, I am not going to talk about our OL woes. All I will say is get well fast, Abe Lucas.