The simple main reason is the O-line! Certainly there are areas of need and concern, but with a middle of the road O-line Seattle would more than likely be 6-3 right now. This issue has to be directly at the feet of John Schnieder.
I'd agree the odds of the Seahawks making the playoffs is low. But, they were never high. And if we lose to San Fran the season is not 'over'. Far from it. 2024's objectives were always to lay the foundation, evaluate the roster, and hit the ground running in 2025. We need the rest of the season to do that, so nothing is 'over' until the last game is played.
With developing teams, it's easy to use the recent past as a predictor of future outcomes. I mean, it's all we have to go on, right? The challenge is, this team should evolve during the year. How much or how quickly none of us know. So what do we do with the remaining 8 games? Develop. That could mean 4 and 4. That could mean 2-6. That could mean 6 and 2. Who knows. I'm not fussed about what our record is at the end of the year. It might actually help us to play pretty well and lose close games, as it improves our draft capital for 2025. You wouldn't do that on purpose obviously, but if it happens, so be it.
I feel for Mike MacDonald. Guy is all in on winning, doing things the right way, and establishing the culture for future years. You can see how much losing weighs on him. That's good. He'll make the decisions with JS that will shape the team to come.
Better days ahead, I just don't know how far ahead.
I'm more of a one day, one game, one win at a time. My expectations of making the playoffs were never high probability, and those probabilities have proven correct. Rookie head coach. Rookie Offensive coordinator. Rookies at head coach rarely win immediately, and often not till their second or third stop on the coaching trail. I hope that isn't necessary. Mike might have success in his second or third year here. Doesn't look bright right now, but ...
I was very enthusiastic about our improvements on defense. We stopped the run, and mostly stopped the pass against a team we have a history of failing to do any of those things. The offense was entertaining and off and on, impressive considering the OL problems. OMG, I am not going to talk about our OL woes. All I will say is get well fast, Abe Lucas.
A couple of weeks ago, I read somewhere that it didn’t matter that the Seahawks were in first place *now*—what counted was where they finished. I don’t see much difference between then and now—not when the club is one game out of the lost column in a weak division.
The probabilities here are not static—I.e. the Hawks are not permanently stuck with a 10% chance of making the post-season. If every team in the division is 6-6 with five games left—hardly an impossibility—the probabilities will look much different.
FWIW, over the course of the rest of the season, I expect:
* Continued poor play from the OL
* Continued erratic play by the QB
* Better use of JSN (I was wrong to question his development)
* Steady improvement by the defense
This is not ideal, but it’s not Carolina either. We’ll see how far that can take them in a weak division.
I just want to see Howell NOW, drop DK and Lockett, and see what we have to start planning for 2025…. MM has nothing to do with these players, but his decisions now could benefit him
SSJ, thanks for laying out the (stark) details. Frustrating to realize that the team's season (play off chances anyway) is probably over. Which causes me to circle back to your earlier post about what would produce the the better outcome; tank or end up 10 and 7.
Here's another way to look at it. Is the rest of the season an opportunity to evaluate second tier talent? An opportunity for the coordinators to try out some new game planning (because so far it looks like changes may be in order). In short, what can we salvage from this leaking, listing ship?
Hawks are undoubtedly a long shot to make the playoffs. I have also seen 10% chance elsewhere. But I would maintain to keep going, keep grinding, keep fighting. Their chances to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship game to go to the Super Bowl were probably a whole lot less, and they won. The magical is a reason to watch sports, IMO.
Also, I could only find 1 team that hasn't made the playoffs while winning 10 games over the prior 5 years in either conference (Miami 2020). And 3 teams over the prior 10 years.
*NFL moved to 7 teams make playoffs in each conference in 2020.
**NFL moved to 17 game season in 2021
Don't be buyers, be selective sellers, but keep clawing and fighting! Go Hawks.
The problem with using betting lines is that they do not reflect probablity. The odds are set at the spot most likely to get the public to bet both sides evenly. This guarantees the sports book of making their maximum cut do to the maximum # of bets placed, while insulating their losses with an equal number of wins.
But in theory if the betting lines get too far away from reality the public (the market) will bet a certain side to bring it back to the closest thing we have to the unknowable truth. These of course are not very liquid markets. But the odds makers are doing the same or similar thing as one would to come up with a simulation of odds.
Are they 100% accurate? No, absolutely not. But they are at least some sort of guide.
I’m gonna guess that it’s based on the average reading speed of adults. What I saw recently is that English speaking adults read somewhere in the range of 220-260 words per minute. It’s faster for fiction than non-fiction.
Yeah, when the article hits my inbox I hit the "like" button to bring me into substack... so if that is the measurement it takes me a nanosecond lol. But I do read (pretty much) every word--except in this case it wasn't really necessary.
Haha. There’s so many things to take into consideration. Who / what is the average reader? Is the content complex (like trying to get your head around stats)? Are there ‘big words’ that you might have to look up to know what they mean? This all takes extra time. Anyway, I suppose it’s not about football, so I’m getting off topic.
The simple main reason is the O-line! Certainly there are areas of need and concern, but with a middle of the road O-line Seattle would more than likely be 6-3 right now. This issue has to be directly at the feet of John Schnieder.
How do you know it will be -10 in Chicago when we play the Bears? :-))))
I'd agree the odds of the Seahawks making the playoffs is low. But, they were never high. And if we lose to San Fran the season is not 'over'. Far from it. 2024's objectives were always to lay the foundation, evaluate the roster, and hit the ground running in 2025. We need the rest of the season to do that, so nothing is 'over' until the last game is played.
With developing teams, it's easy to use the recent past as a predictor of future outcomes. I mean, it's all we have to go on, right? The challenge is, this team should evolve during the year. How much or how quickly none of us know. So what do we do with the remaining 8 games? Develop. That could mean 4 and 4. That could mean 2-6. That could mean 6 and 2. Who knows. I'm not fussed about what our record is at the end of the year. It might actually help us to play pretty well and lose close games, as it improves our draft capital for 2025. You wouldn't do that on purpose obviously, but if it happens, so be it.
I feel for Mike MacDonald. Guy is all in on winning, doing things the right way, and establishing the culture for future years. You can see how much losing weighs on him. That's good. He'll make the decisions with JS that will shape the team to come.
Better days ahead, I just don't know how far ahead.
North Carolina State quarterback Grayson McCall and Michigan quarterback Jack Tuttle both medically retired due to concussions.
Our QB of the future retired before we could draft him
I don't think Grayson ever wanted to play in the NFL. He had said once that he preferred golf.
If we know this, the players know this. This will be a real test of grit and team cohesion, I really hope the Hawks pass that test.
I'm more of a one day, one game, one win at a time. My expectations of making the playoffs were never high probability, and those probabilities have proven correct. Rookie head coach. Rookie Offensive coordinator. Rookies at head coach rarely win immediately, and often not till their second or third stop on the coaching trail. I hope that isn't necessary. Mike might have success in his second or third year here. Doesn't look bright right now, but ...
I was very enthusiastic about our improvements on defense. We stopped the run, and mostly stopped the pass against a team we have a history of failing to do any of those things. The offense was entertaining and off and on, impressive considering the OL problems. OMG, I am not going to talk about our OL woes. All I will say is get well fast, Abe Lucas.
A couple of weeks ago, I read somewhere that it didn’t matter that the Seahawks were in first place *now*—what counted was where they finished. I don’t see much difference between then and now—not when the club is one game out of the lost column in a weak division.
The probabilities here are not static—I.e. the Hawks are not permanently stuck with a 10% chance of making the post-season. If every team in the division is 6-6 with five games left—hardly an impossibility—the probabilities will look much different.
FWIW, over the course of the rest of the season, I expect:
* Continued poor play from the OL
* Continued erratic play by the QB
* Better use of JSN (I was wrong to question his development)
* Steady improvement by the defense
This is not ideal, but it’s not Carolina either. We’ll see how far that can take them in a weak division.
Average time to pop my hope ballon 5 minutes. 🥹
So funny I howled
I just want to see Howell NOW, drop DK and Lockett, and see what we have to start planning for 2025…. MM has nothing to do with these players, but his decisions now could benefit him
SSJ, thanks for laying out the (stark) details. Frustrating to realize that the team's season (play off chances anyway) is probably over. Which causes me to circle back to your earlier post about what would produce the the better outcome; tank or end up 10 and 7.
Here's another way to look at it. Is the rest of the season an opportunity to evaluate second tier talent? An opportunity for the coordinators to try out some new game planning (because so far it looks like changes may be in order). In short, what can we salvage from this leaking, listing ship?
Hell no! The LIONS are going to be in the playoffs and I would love to see them make the SB this year--and win it!
So, you are saying there's a chance!
Great points in the article.
Hawks are undoubtedly a long shot to make the playoffs. I have also seen 10% chance elsewhere. But I would maintain to keep going, keep grinding, keep fighting. Their chances to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship game to go to the Super Bowl were probably a whole lot less, and they won. The magical is a reason to watch sports, IMO.
Also, I could only find 1 team that hasn't made the playoffs while winning 10 games over the prior 5 years in either conference (Miami 2020). And 3 teams over the prior 10 years.
*NFL moved to 7 teams make playoffs in each conference in 2020.
**NFL moved to 17 game season in 2021
Don't be buyers, be selective sellers, but keep clawing and fighting! Go Hawks.
Markets to win division:
SF: 53%
Zona: 29%
Rams: 20%
Hawks: 8%
The juice is why it doesn't add up to 100%. (Book: Betonline)
Actually the odds to make the playoffs:
No -800 (88% inverse is 12%)
Yes +500 (17%)
So, the market is actually higher on the Hawks to make the playoffs somewhere from 12%-17%.
Not good but not astronomical either.
If the Hawks win in SF my guess is it would change quite dramatically.
The problem with using betting lines is that they do not reflect probablity. The odds are set at the spot most likely to get the public to bet both sides evenly. This guarantees the sports book of making their maximum cut do to the maximum # of bets placed, while insulating their losses with an equal number of wins.
True.
But in theory if the betting lines get too far away from reality the public (the market) will bet a certain side to bring it back to the closest thing we have to the unknowable truth. These of course are not very liquid markets. But the odds makers are doing the same or similar thing as one would to come up with a simulation of odds.
Are they 100% accurate? No, absolutely not. But they are at least some sort of guide.
If you assume every game in 50/50
the chance of winning 6 or more games is 14%
Just curious. How is the average read time calculated?
Time can be estimated, comprehension is where things fall apart.
I’m gonna guess that it’s based on the average reading speed of adults. What I saw recently is that English speaking adults read somewhere in the range of 220-260 words per minute. It’s faster for fiction than non-fiction.
Yeah, when the article hits my inbox I hit the "like" button to bring me into substack... so if that is the measurement it takes me a nanosecond lol. But I do read (pretty much) every word--except in this case it wasn't really necessary.
Haha. There’s so many things to take into consideration. Who / what is the average reader? Is the content complex (like trying to get your head around stats)? Are there ‘big words’ that you might have to look up to know what they mean? This all takes extra time. Anyway, I suppose it’s not about football, so I’m getting off topic.