Who do you want to win Seahawks starting QB job: Drew Lock, Geno Smith, or Baker Mayfield?
Seaside Joe 1185: Who will be Seattle's Top Gun in Week 1?
They say not to judge a book by its cover, but is it okay if I judge a movie by its title? While I’m asking rhetorical questions, may I also continue to be cynical about “news” reports and fake internet numbers?
Because I’m having a hard time buying the premise that Top Gun: Maverick is as good as the 8.7/10 score it has on IMDb on 87,000 early reviews (higher than Saving Private Ryan, The Silence of the Lambs, Seven Samurai, and Star Wars) or the 97% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and the 99% score from audiences, all of whom I’m sure are real people with no scores from bots purchased by Paramount Pictures.
May I be sarcastic before we dip into Seattle’s quarterback competition?
Perhaps harder to fake but nearly impossible to believe are the box office reports that say Top Gun: Maverick, a sequel to a movie that has a 57% on RT, is sweeping the nation as one of the great film sensations of our lifetimes: a Memorial Day holiday weekend record of $156 million and soon-to-be Tom Cruise’s biggest earner of all-time.
I can’t fathom that most people under 30 have ever seen the 1986 edition, and I have to admit that even as an ‘82 baby that I never had (or personally witnessed) any adoration for Top Gun growing up, and certainly not to the degree of undeniable classics of the era like Die Hard, Back to the Future, and Aliens.
Hell, give me Mannequin: Maverick over Top Gun: Maverick.
To me, Top Gun has always just been a title attached to an idea. The idea that in the 80s there was this guy named Tom Cruise, women wanted him, men wanted to be him, and he made like five movies in the decade that everyone has heard of but none of which are required viewing: Risky Business, All the Right Moves, Top Gun, Cocktail, and Days of Thunder.
(Maybe more on my side of watchable would be Rain Man and The Color of Money.)
Now that’s just my take on Cruise in the 80s and it certainly does not have to be your take on the same subject. Your life has been under completely different circumstances than my life! There are a lot of movies that I love that do not connect with the majority of people, plenty of popular movies that I like that are considered trashy, it’s all relative to your experiences and what you want out of a film.
I just can’t understand how the biggest movie of the year is a “plotless” action movie (not my words, just the take away I’ve seen from every review about Top Gun despite its Rotten Tomatoes score suggesting that it’s must-see) starring a 60-year-old man.
Frank Sinatra at 60:
Jimmy Stewart at 60:
Jack Nicholson at 60:
Tom Cruise at 60:
Is that a little weird?
I have not seen Top Gun: Maverick. I have not even seen the trailer for it. I don’t imagine that I will see Top Gun: Maverick, just as I did not watch the most recent editions of Terminator or Independence Day or Ghostbusters. Why not? Well, don’t all of those movies sound bad enough without having to watch a trailer or read a review that you know must be at least a little disingenuous?
People have been suggesting that the movie is propaganda for the military, as the ‘86 version was, but what’s really being sold here is “the movies.” If you’ve been to an AMC recently, you may have seen this classic short film starring Nicole Kidman. My favorite quote of hers from that short film is:
“We come to this place for magic. We come to AMC theaters to love, to cry, to care because we need that. All of us. That indescribable feeling we get when the lights begin to dim. And we go somewhere we’ve never been before. Not just entertained, but somehow reborn. Together. Dazzling images on a huge silver screen. Sound that I can feel. Somehow heartbreak feels good in a place like this. Our heroes feel like the best part of us and stories feel perfect and powerful. Because here (at an AMC movie theater) they are.”
I hope she wins a short film acting Oscar for that one.
Top Gun: Maverick may not be for me, and I just do not understand who it is for, but if the goal with the numbers and the incredulous stats is to save cinemas, then I say… Fine. I mean, Hollywood could have chosen to push Everything, Everywhere, All At Once instead—a film that I know a bunch of people actually are buzzing about and is what actually made me feel like, idk, that my heroes are the best part of me—but if what’s going to get people to buy into the idea that it’s cool to go to the movies again is a mindless popcorn flick, then fine.
I have it all wrong about Top Gun? You can tell me in the comments!
You don’t always have to be good in order to be a winner—aka a segue into the Seahawks quarterback competition.
Drew Lock vs Geno Smith vs Other
The Seattle Seahawks are already in the midst of a quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock, with Jacob Eason flying under their wings like, I don’t know, Icebox or whatever his name is.
Today I want to ask YOU, the Seahawks fans, a few questions about Seattle’s quarterback competition: Who do you think will win, who do you want to win, and are the Seahawks finished looking for a quarterback to add to the mix so that neither of them have to win the job?
First I’ll lay out the competitors, then I’ll add a link to a SHORT survey for you to fill out, then next week I’ll give you the results! In the meantime, tell me in the comments your opinions on Smith, Lock, Baker Mayfield, etc.
I’ll add a link to the Survey NOW in case it gets cut off from the email being too long. (Click the SEASIDE JOE banner to read the full article at Substack)
TAKE THE 3-QUESTION SURVEY
Drew Lock, 25
6’4, 228 lbs, 42nd pick in 2019
2021: 67/111, 60%, 787 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 80.4 rating, 23.4 QBR, 7.5% sack rate
Best game: 18/25, 245 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, one sack in 34-13 loss to Chargers
Big arm, bad decisions. Drew Lock is the quarterback who wins the job if Seattle simply wants to find out if they have a potential starter for 2023. I don’t think Pete Carroll will be able to see it that way because Carroll won’t give up hope on winning the Super Bowl in 2022 quite yet.
So is Lock the quarterback who gives the Seahawks the best chance to win next season? That wasn’t how Vic Fangio felt when he chose Teddy Bridgewater as the starter over him with the Broncos last year. Is Geno Smith a worse quarterback than Bridgewater? Will Carroll see the potential (or conversely, the attitude) that Fangio didn’t see in him?
Despite some affection for him recently by fans, probably because he’s the only quarterback on the roster with presumed potential, Lock has been one of the three worst starters in the NFL over the past two years. Has he not had the right supporting cast or coaching, or is this just who he is?
Geno Smith, 31
6’3, 221 lbs, 39th overall pick in 2013
2021: 65/95, 68%, 702 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 7.4 Y/A, 103 rating, 45.8 QBR, 12% sack rate
Best game: 20/24, 195 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 128.3 rating, 3 sacks, 1 rush TD in 31-7 win over Jaguars
Since “the punch” in 2015, Smith has played in six games with more than 10 passing attempts, four of which came in relief of Russell Wilson last year.
Statistically, Smith appears adequate on most levels. Visually, I can’t get on board with the premise that Geno Smith has been “held back” from a deserving job as a starter.
The best thing going for Smith right now is the fact that he’s entering year three with the Seahawks and year two with Shane Waldron’s playbook. He has some relationship with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but how far will that be able to take him? Consider that if Seattle was in position to draft a good quarterback prospect this year-which they weren’t—but if they were, nobody would expect Smith to be anywhere near the starting gig.
Even if that prospect had been as raw as Trey Lance, what would even be the point of masquerading Smith as a bridge?
Like with Bridgewater, if Smith wins the starting job for Week 1, I don’t expect him to keep Lock on the bench for the entire 17-game schedule. It is so unlikely that Seattle could go an entire season without eventually feeling like, “Well, couldn’t Lock at least do a little better than this?” after any two or three-game stretch of ineptitude.
Consider Smith’s first start of 2021 against the Steelers: The Seahawks first half drives went 8, 41, 9, 6, -8 yards, all resulting in punts. Smith was successful in the third quarter, but then the fourth quarter drives went punt, punt, FG, punt, fumble.
And outside of an unbelievable 84-yard touchdown to DK against the Saints, Seattle’s drives against New Orleans went punt, punt, punt, punt in the first half, then missed FG, punt, FG, missed FG, turnover on downs in the second half.
If this sounds like I’m campaigning against Smith, I’m not. There is no campaigning “for” anybody on this roster. These are the Seahawks two best options right now.
Jacob Eason, 24
6’6, 231 lbs, 122nd overall pick in 2020 NFL Draft
If Seattle just wants to say “Fuck it” and throw a complete wild card into the game.
Non-rostered options
For the record, I’m not going to look at ANY quarterbacks who are NOT being dangled on the trade market. That means I’m not going to talk about someone like Gardner Minshew because as far as we know, he is not available. We do know that two other quarterbacks are definitely available, but should Seattle even consider them?
Baker Mayfield, 27
6’1, 215 lbs, 1st overall pick in 2018 NFL Draft
2021: 253/418, 60%, 3,010 yards, 17 TD, 13 INT, 7.2 Y/A, 83.1 rating, 35.1 QBR, 9% sack rate
Best game: 14/21, 218 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 132.6 rating, 2 sacks in 41-16 win over Bengals
Everyone feels some type of way about Baker Mayfield. I don’t want to put my feelings into this too much, but I’ve made it clear on Seaside Joe that I believe the Seahawks’ only goal with the quarterback position should be to leave the door open for the 2023 draft.
Is Mayfield going to take Seattle to the Super Bowl this year? If not, I don’t quite see what the point of the acquisition would be because it would cut into the Seahawks’ 2023 cap (even if he’s not on the team, that’s money they can’t roll over) and I also don’t see why Mayfield would want to go to Seattle in that case.
You think he wants to play for a team that’s looking at him, in any way, as a “bridge” quarterback? He just got rejected by THE BROWNS.
Mayfield is owed $19 million on his fully-guaranteed fifth-year option but Cleveland would presumably have to eat a portion of his salary in order to trade him. The more they eat, the greater the draft pick return, presumably. Do you want the Seahawks to sacrifice their 2023 draft capital and 2023 cap space for a Baker Mayfield rental?
Do you see Mayfield as more than a rental and therefore worth a contract extension?
Jimmy Garoppolo, 30
6’2, 225 lbs, 62nd overall pick in 2014 NFL Draft
2021: 301/441, 68%, 3,810 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 8.6 Y/A, 98.7 rating, 53.3 QBR, 6.2% sack rate
Best game: 15/19, 182 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack in 31-10 win over Rams
The 49ers can either keep Garoppolo another year at $26 million, release him for all those savings, or trade him to a team willing to eat a portion of his salary.
The Seahawks would presumably only be involved if Garoppolo is released, which does make it a little more unlikely that San Francisco will be able to release Garoppolo for as long as Seattle has a need at quarterback.
He’s the very definition of a game manager and a bridge quarterback, with the added bonus of an extensive injury history.
Other options? Let me know your OTHER options in the comments! (No, I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is going to ever sign with an NFL team.)
TAKE THE 3-QUESTION SURVEY
Here is a SHORT 3-question survey. Answers Coming Soon To A Seaside Joe Newsletter Near You!!!
Best case scenario is Seahawks go undefeated.
Second best case scenario is Seahawks QB has an amazing year and secures the job long-term.
Third best scenario is Seahawks go winless and nab the best QB on the board in the 2023 draft.
Geno is a known quantity. So is Baker. I actually think Lock gives us the best shot at all three scenarios.
I had the feeling last year that we never really saw Shane Waldron’s offense because Russ was too busy being improvisational Russ. I hope, but don’t really expect, that Lock can competently run Waldron’s offense and that we’ll see some long, time consuming drives that lead to points, while resting the refurbished defense.
In this dream scenario the Seahawks have a better record than the Broncos, have the Broncos top 10 draft pick next year and a ton of salary cap space.
It’s early in the year so a fan can dream the impossible dream.