Give me one Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen over the entire 2022 Saints roster
Seaside Joe 1281: Nothing compares to a franchise quarterback
The results to the Seahawks fan survey will be posted this Friday, so make sure to vote before then if you haven’t already. I have found the early results to be fascinating and clearly underestimated just how much expectations did change after Russell Wilson was traded. As obvious as it sounds that the team would be worse after parting with the best quarterback in franchise history, I still do not think that has quite been the atmosphere portrayed by some fans online as enter the five-day stretch before Week 1’s game against the Denver Broncos.
I keep thinking of it this way: If the Seahawks had instead kept Wilson, re-signed Duane Brown (who is hurt right now, not long after signing with the Jets), and it was the Broncos who decided to hold a competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock, which team would you favor on Monday night?
Wilson’s Seahawks or Geno’s Broncos?
I know that there are so many other variables to consider but it has been the norm for decades to simplify football games down to quarterback comparisons. Wilson’s Seahawks vs. Geno’s Broncos. Who you got?
Well, that is not the case. It is Wilson’s Broncos traveling to Seattle to face Geno’s Seahawks and while games do not often favor the elite quarterback talent (see: Russell Wilson vs. Colt McCoy or Nick Foles), more often than not that is one of the most important deciding factors in every outcome. If it wasn’t, then why have we spent the last 50 years debating the favorability of these matchups?
Better yet: Why did I spend the last 10 years covering Wilson’s entire career, game after game, season after season, defending him and praising him for the value he brought to the organization, if not to remain true to my word after he’s left the organization? If we didn’t see a monumental gap in value and potential outcomes based on this one position change from Wilson to A.W. (After Wilson) then what was the point of all those arguments about Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and so on?
Trust me there is way too much evidence of me saying that Russell Wilson is great and important for me to also now turn around and say, “Eh, are the Seahawks really that much different?”
Yes. The Seahawks are that much different because franchise quarterbacks—of which there might only be 12 to 16 true versions of at any given time—are really that special and difficult to find. But Seattle didn’t trade Wilson because they wanted to lose a franchise quarterback…John Schneider and Pete Carroll traded Wilson because they are desperate to find another franchise quarterback.
A cheaper one, a younger one, and indeed one who may be more open to playing Pete ball for the next 10 years.
In yet another (but at least comprehensive and well-written) re-telling of the behind-the-scenes affairs of the Seattle Seahawks, ESPN’s Brady Henderson detailed on Wednesday how frustrations about the offense and Schneider’s quiet obsession with drafting a blue chip quarterback prospect (more evidence that it is indeed going to happen in 2023) led to Wilson’s 2022 exit.
It would only be logical to expect a temporary reprieve from the pressures of winning expectations. I don’t think anyone outside of the organization has winning expectations for the Seahawks.
That’s what happens when you trade a franchise quarterback even when it is the best thing for your organization.
While it has indeed always been true and repeated a trillion times over, yes you can win a Super Bowl with a mediocre quarterback. A Super Bowl. (Wayne’s World “A gun” gun rack voice): A Super Bowl. Emphasis on the singular.
The ‘99 Rams are one of the best teams I’ve ever seen play football and for three seasons, they were nearly unstoppable. The ‘99 defense doesn’t even get enough credit for their part in that championship. However, Kurt Warner was essentially gone by 2002 and St. Louis wouldn’t be heard from again until they were Los Angeles again.
Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl in 2000. The Ravens didn’t get back to the AFC championship until 2008, going 1-3 in the playoffs between those appearances.
Brad Johnson won a Super Bowl in 2002. The Bucs went 0-2 in the playoffs between 2003 and 2019. At which point, Tom Brady, the guy who kept the Patriots at 10+ wins for almost two decades, brought the Lombardi back to Tampa Bay again.
Eli Manning won two Super Bowls. Those were the only two seasons in his entire career in which he won a playoff game.
And the Broncos only traded for Wilson because since John Elway retired, they’ve only ever had two really successful seasons in the last 22 years: The two Super Bowl runs with Peyton Manning. That’s it.
Even the Eagles qualify—Since winning the Super Bowl, Philly is 28-33-1 with a 1-3 playoff record—and I made the mistake of thinking that the Eagles were only getting started in 2017.
Building the roster this year was a hugely important step in the plan for the Seahawks to become great again. As I noted in my predictions bonus post, the Saints could be a sleeper team with the number one seed because their roster is stacked in many key areas. However, I would think it better to have one Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen—the two QBs who Schneider reportedly coveted the most over the last five drafts—over an entire stacked roster that lacks a quarterback.
You can continuously rebuild around players like Mahomes, Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Brady, and Wilson and still contend year after year.
If you don’t have that quarterback in place though and you convince yourself that “Well, because Dilfer did it, so can…Geno Smith or Drew Lock” you may be in a long haul. One that eventually leads to you trading two firsts and two seconds for Russell Wilson.
I’d love a Mahomes or Allen, but only on their rookie deals. The idea of a franchise QB is great, but not if you’re paying said QB at market value.
In the last 12 SBs, only 3 of those 24 teams have been piloted by a QB with a top 5 cap hit. There’s a much higher rate of mediocre QBs winning than your highly-paid marquee guys.
Now, if you can get a franchise guy to take a below market deal for 20 years like Brady, then great. I would’ve been happy to keep Russ if his cap hit was $20M. At $45M? Hell no.
It seems to me that you basically have to get everything else right to build a complete team around a QB taking up that much of your cap space. It’s a bad bet. The numbers back that up.
A great team can be a contender with a decent QB, like the 49ers with Jimmy G or the Rams with Goff, or the Steelers with Old Big Ben. A bad team is not saved by a great QB, as the Stafford-era Lions or the 2017 Seahawks show us.
The Saints with post-LASIK Winston are scary. If he's healthy, they are my favorites to win the NFC,