4 questions: Seahawks sale, Pete Carroll successor, QBOTF, breakouts

Are Clint Hurtt and Jeff Bezos the next brain trust of the Seattle Seahawks? Seaside Joe 1562

The Seattle Seahawks might win the Super Bowl in February, it’s certainly not something that we can rule out entirely, but chances are that they won’t. Even if you felt that the Seahawks were the fifth-best team in the NFL and that they had the fifth-most favorable schedule and played in the first-most favorable conference, Seattle’s odds of winning the next Super Bowl would still not be anywhere near 50%.

Not even the Kansas City Chiefs are near 50% and even if they were, that would only be a coinflip.

However, the Seahawks are in a way coming out of one of their most important years in franchise history—from trading Russell Wilson in March of 2022 to finalizing their trade returns in the 2023 NFL Draft, including Devon Witherspoon and Derick Hall—and now in the early stages of another monumental stretch of questions and decisions that they are facing.

On this Sunday, episode 1562 of Seaside Joe, I was pondering some of those key lingering questions facing the Seattle Seahawks over the next 12 months. Now, I will share them with you.

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As far as the future of the Seattle Seahawks? These are four questions that we should all be waiting to find out the answers to.

Sale of the Seahawks

It’s going to be one of the five most-important days in the history of the franchise when it happens and yet the impending sale of the Seahawks is something we rarely discuss. But I get it, it’s not because nobody is aware, as Bob Condotta has mentioned many times that the key date for Jody Allen is May 21, 2024. That’s when the Seahawks don’t have to give 10% of the sale back to the state of Washington.

Before that date, nothing is going to happen. According to Allen, nothing is guaranteed to happen after that date either.

“As Jody publicly said last year, the sports teams are not for sale,” a spokesman for Vulcan Inc. told Bachman. “That will eventually change pursuant to Paul’s wishes, but there is no pre-ordained timeline for when that will happen. Interested parties can engage when we establish a sales process at some point in the future.”

As far as anyone can tell, there isn’t going to be anyone pressuring Vulcan or Allen into a sale when we get to next May. Are they desperate for cash? Probably not, no. Will the Seahawks be more valuable in five years than they are now? Probably yes, yes.

It was less than 10 years ago, in 2014, that the Buffalo Bills sold for $1.1 billion. Last year, the Broncos sold for $4.6 billion. This year, the Washington sale price came in at $6.05 billion, which has yet to be finalized, proving that these aren’t simple Wal-Mart transactions. (Even if Denver’s was technically a Wal-Mart transaction.)

The Rams sold for $700 million in 2010. They were recently valued by Forbes as the 10th-most profitable sports franchise in the world, making over $300 million in the last three years even in spite of their terrible 2022 season and the fact that their home games are often crowded by fans of the opposing team. (Hence, why you open a $5 billion stadium in Los Angeles.)

I’ve always said that the most important “person” or group for any franchise is the owner. It all starts up top and that’s why some franchises have been good for decades, while others have been trolling their fans for decades. Seattle was lucky to have Paul Allen because he hired good people and he didn’t interfere with them. What will be the approach of Jeff Bezos, the most probable next owner of the Seahawks, if he buys the team in the next few years?

For what it’s worth, the Allen trust is considered the second-richest owner in the NFL at a net worth of $20.3 billion. The Walton-Penner ownership group in Denver is now the richest at $59.8 billion.

Bezos has a net worth of $146.2 billion, per the latest upate from Forbes—he literally lost as much money in 2022 as the total value of the Walton-Penner group and he’s still got almost $90 billion more. I don’t know what value like that would do for a football team operating under a salary cap anyway, but given Bezos’ aggressive interest in making an NFL purchase, we will soon find out.

Who is the QB of the future?

For months, the biggest lingering question was how the Seahawks would approach Geno Smith’s free agency and whether they would give him the franchise tag if a long-term agreement couldn’t be reached. You would think then that a three-year contract meant that Geno “won” and that Seattle had settled on a starting quarterback for at least a couple more seasons, but that is hardly the case. In fact, Drew Lock’s contract strongly implies that while the quarterback competition is over, their interest in developing him into a future starter isn’t.

Instead of carrying a $32.4 million 2023 cap hit for Geno on the franchise tag, Seattle’s cap hit is only $10.1 million and then they can still release him in 2024 with almost $14 million in savings. Essentially, instead of the franchise tag, the Seahawks spread that hit over two seasons (a little less money actually) and the third year is practically meaningless; Geno is playing for a new contract just as much next season as he was last year.

Lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and the team almost certainly has to give him a new contract. But if he loses ground to Lock, the team will almost certainly walk away scot free.

Lock carries a $4 million cap hit but he could make as much as $7.5 million with incentives based on playing time, wins, passing yards, touchdowns, and making the Pro Bowl. What that tells us is that more than 0% of the franchise/player believes that those marks are possible, which you will not usually find with most backups around the league.

Perhaps at the end of the season, fans will be much more comfortable with the idea of Geno Smith as Seattle’s starter in 2024 and beyond. Or maybe it will be Drew Lock. Or maybe it won’t be either of them and the Seahawks will once again be surrounded by draft, trade, and free agency rumors at the position. That’s a key question facing the team over the next 12 months.

Is Clint Hurtt a potential head coach?

There have been several requests recently for a Shane Waldron origin story, which I mainly attribute to the entertainment value that people got out of the Clint Hurtt origin story. I’m not saying that I won’t do a Waldron origin story, but I don’t know if it’s going to be quite as enthralling as Hurtt’s.

It’s actually quite interesting to monitor that over Pete Carroll’s career as a head coach, his defensive coordinators are often pegged as potential successors while his offensive coordinators are branded as just being along for the ride…this in spite of the fact that Darrell Bevell and Russell Wilson had an extraordinary amount of success together, but Bevell could barely even sniff out an interview.

Waldron inherited a Wilson offense only to then be tasked with building something out of a Geno Smith offense and what did we get? Pro Bowl, ninth in scoring, and Kenneth Walker III nearly won Offensive Rookie of the Year behind not one but two rookie tackles. However, Waldron didn’t get any head coaching interviews this year and I can’t quite see how that’s going to change given another quality season from the offense.

But what about Hurtt? Despite Seattle’s defensive struggles and lack of a true identity—turning over the majority of their starting positions for the second offseason in a row—Hurtt’s story and the way that players and coaches talk about him seems to align more closely to the attributes of a head coach than Shane Waldron. I could be wrong, especially since the Seahawks offense is undoubtedly looking like it could be one of the top scoring machines in the NFL if everything goes right, but will other teams credit Waldron for that success if it happens? They didn’t offer the benefit of the doubt to Bevell when he had Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.

What Hurtt really needs is the type of defensive season just had by Jonathan Gannon, now the head coach of the Cardinals, with the Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle increased their sack total in 2022 and that’s a number that must continue to go up, same as their number of turnovers and limiting explosive plays. If that happens, Hurtt may not be a defensive coordinator for much longer and given Pete’s own timeline, the Seahawks may feel compelled to do everything in their power to keep Clint Hurtt around.

The Seahawks ran into one of their worst seasons in franchise history because of a succession plan being executed in 2009, so that isn’t necessarily the ideal, but finding a great head coach is at least as hard as finding a great quarterback. Is Hurtt that guy? Is Waldron? Is it maybe somebody else deeper down on the staff—consider that Zac Taylor, the head coach of the Bengals, was only a quarterbacks coach under Sean McVay before being hired in Cincinnati.

I’m not pushing Pete Carroll out. We just have no idea when he’s going to step away and it would seem that decision is going to mostly rest on his own shoulders. Given Hurtt’s seven-year tenure on Seattle’s staff, he might be the next in line if it happens.

Do Seahawks have any hidden gems on roster?

It’s do or die time for these players:

WR Dee Eskridge, year three

Geno Smith is talking up Eskridge like he’s going to be a major part of the offense this year, despite the Seahawks adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a practically guaranteed third starter. If Eskridge doesn’t win an important role on the offense, does he have a good enough reason to take a roster spot away from somebody else?

OLB Darrell Taylor, year four

Quasi-benched last season before becoming a productive pass rusher in the final quarter of the campaign, Taylor is a free agent next offseason. Even if he gets 10 sacks this year, the Seahawks may ultimately decide to take the 2025 compensatory pick and run. Is Taylor going to become a consistent, reliable three-down presence?

CB Tre Brown, year three

For many intents and purposes, the Dee Eskridge of defense. Seattle has added so many options to their secondary that at this point, Brown may be on the outside looking in as far as a 53-man roster spot goes.

TE Noah Fant, year five

Yes, this is actually Fant’s fifth year in the NFL. Sometimes tight ends do take that long to adjust to the pros, it’s perhaps the second-toughest position to master these days. But will that ever happen for him or Colby Parkinson (year four)? It seems more likely for Fant than Parkinson, but Parkinson may end up proving to be a better value-per-dollar.

G Damien Lewis, year four

Lewis may end up pricing himself out of Seattle with a good season. He may need to be “great” for the Seahawks to spend money on a guard. But then do they want to spend top-5 money on an interior offensive lineman? They seem most comfortable in the mid-range, such as the $4 million Phil Haynes, another question mark.

Who are you looking to take the next step and definitely be a part of the core players moving forward?

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