Seahawks schedule could lead to "Geno MVP!" chants for another 2 months
Seaside Joe 1317: The stats are good, some of the throws are great, but what's ahead for Geno's offense?
Nobody, least of all Seaside Joe, is hoping to ruin anybody’s joy over the unexpected outpouring of offense from the “Geno Smith Seahawks” in the last two weeks. The Seahawks have scored 80 points in their last past two games, which adequately resembles the 89 points that they scored in the final two weeks of 2021. Which was also Seattle’s highest-scoring two-game stretch since putting up 92 against the Bills and 49ers in late 2012, and those games were preceded by a 58-0 victory over the Cardinals.
But now the Seahawks managed to replicate those performances, sort of, with a career backup instead of the former guy who nobody questioned was capable of being the best quarterback in the league sometimes.
That’s good. It’s good! The Seahawks have scored 127 points (seventh-most) and that’s better than having to watch the Colts (69 points), Broncos (75), Steelers (77), Rams (80!), Bears (86), or Texans (86) right now. Seattle scored 48 of those points against the Lions, which is still 10 more points than any other team to have faced the Lions so far this season.
It’s good to be entertained. It’s bad to be Daniel Jones. I have reached the point where I believe that Geno Smith is better than Daniel Jones. That’s progress!
Over a collection of five starts, Smith ranks first in completion percentage (75.2%), first in passer rating (113.2), and PFF has decided to hitch their wagon to him too. Better than that, look at this throw:
Smith had a few other impressive passes against the Saints and he finished with a career-high passer rating as a member of the Seahawks, 139.7. (Smith also once went 20/25 for 358 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 158.3 rating as a starter for the Jets in 2014, and 16/20, 199 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 147.7 with the Jets in 2013.)
I wrote back in April that either Geno Smith or Drew Lock were capable of being top-20 starting quarterbacks this season. That’s where I continue to sit in my evaluation of Geno’s season: He is starting to crack the top-20 and he’s better than Baker Mayfield, which practically nobody was arguing when Baker Mayfield was in no man’s land and considered an option for Seattle, if released.
“How could you say that, Joe?! Are you just failing to see the light because you need to confirm your anti-Geno bias?”
It’s not for me to say which beams of light I fail to see. But if there’s wool, I don’t believe it’s my eyes that are the victims of this mirage.
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Number one, I don’t think anyone believes that Geno Smith is one of the top-10 quarterbacks in the NFL. Yes, he is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL statistically through five games, but for anyone chanting “MVP!” ask them a simple question: “Which current QBs would you swap out for Smith?”
No single quarterback exists in a vacuum, not when we’re ranking them. Be rational: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers all still exist. So do Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. I have a sense that this is where we begin to get into “tricky territory” for some fans, because maybe you could make arguments against certain quarterbacks based on any number of factors, but how many of us are ready to put Geno ahead of Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, or Trevor Lawrence?
“Well, I would take Geno over Tannehill, Cousins, Carr, Stafford, those guys aren’t so good!”
I guess you said it yourself then: “Those guys aren’t so good.”
Indeed I believe there is a large bucket of “Capable Quarterbacks” and maybe Geno Smith didn’t get his opportunity to prove he belonged in it because of his association with the New York Jets and how his career came to an end so abrubtly with that organization. Perhaps Smith is much more of a “Joe Flacco” than he is a “Mitchell Trubisky.”
That’s why I said that reaching the top-20 wouldn’t be as difficult as it sounds: Somewhere in the mix of Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills, Tua Tagovailoa, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, that’s where Geno Smith has always belonged. Not with the Mike Glennons. Not with the Tom Bradys.
But of the dozen or so teams every year that do not have a stable situation at quarterback, why shouldn’t Smith be given his opportunity to be a starter?
The 2022 Seahawks are such a team, Geno Smith is such a starter.
Bonus Joe: Despite struggles, Seahawks offseason is a masterclass in rebuilding
I’m not down on Smith. I’m up on him! It may not be as “up” as your “up” or his “up” or her “up,” but it is up. We don’t all have to have the same up or the same down. We don’t all have to come up with the same results, even if we’re looking at the same math problems. This isn’t math, it’s not science.
Grading football is like grading poetry. There is room for interpretation.
But there is also room for being as rational and logical as possible, especially before the Seahawks dedicate almost all of their 2023 cap space to Geno Smith based on a five-game sample size; and really, mostly, amplified by a two-game sample size.
If the Seahawks don’t have the worst defense in the NFL, it’s only because the Detroit Lions do. The Lions rank 32nd in defensive DVOA, 30th against the pass, 31st against the run, 32nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
This past weekend, Bailey Zappe, a fourth round rookie out of Western Kentucky (I covered Zappe quite a lot last year when evaluating draft prospects and he is an air raid system quarterback who was lightly recruited out of high school and a star at Houston Baptist prior to transferring in 2021; he’s fine, he’s probably not going to be an NFL starter) faced the Lions. Zappe went 17-of-21 for 188 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 161 yards on 25 carries. Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers had seven catches for 111 yards.
In Week 2, Carson Wentz went 30-of-46 for 337 yards with three touchdowns, one interception against the Lions. In his three games since, Wentz has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions and Washington has scored a total of 35 points.
What I think the Seahawks should be focused on is not how the offense performs against the worst defenses, or even how the offense performs against the best defenses (we saw that against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2), but how the offense performs in a typical situation.
Not until the Seahawks are a playoff contender again do we have to worry about how Seattle fares against the best defenses… in which case, that’s when the upgrades at quarterback are truly necessary. First, the Seahawks need to figure out if they can have success against middling teams, then we can worry about whether or not they could win three or four playoff games.
Related Reading: What the Seahawks would do if Geno Smith is actually good
Now time for the double-edged news: The Seahawks will not face many more good defenses this season. Geno Smith very well could continue to be among the highest-ranked quarterbacks in the NFL, even through all 17 games. Why? Not only because he deserves to be a “Capable Starting Quarterback,” but because this schedule couldn’t be more forgiving than it already is.
Seahawks Schedule (Pass Defense DVOA ranking/Run Defense DVOA ranking):
Cardinals - 27th / 12th
Chargers - 12th / 22nd
Giants - 24th / 21st
Cardinals - 27th / 12th
Bucs - 1st / 14th
Raiders - 25th / 13th
Rams - 17th / 5th
Panthers - 22nd / 16th
49ers - 5th / 1st
Chiefs - 19th / 8th
Jets - 23rd / 19th
Rams - 17th / 5th
By DVOA, the Seahawks only have two more games against defenses that have been “elite” against the pass (49ers, Buccaneers in Germany), and only one other game against a team that is above-average (Chargers). Seattle has six more games against defenses ranked 22nd or worse against the pass and by the time the Seahawks face some of those teams, there is a chance that injuries have made them even less threatening to Geno Smith and company.
Consider if Carolina or the Jets are really going to be much better by December and January.
These next four weeks could be especially inviting for Smith, as the Arizona Carindals are up twice and they rank 30th in adjusted net yards/pass attempt, allowing eight touchdowns, a passer rating of 101.1, and have only accumulated seven sacks. However, the Cardinals did just hold the Eagles to 20 points (Jalen Hurts didn’t pass for a touchdown, but ran for two) and Matthew Stafford was also unable to throw a score against Arizona.
In fact, five of the eight touchdowns allowed came against Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. Can the Seahawks buck the trend? If they are the “number one offense by DVOA” and if DVOA means anything, then that’s what we should see. The Chargers have been inconsistent, as they were decimated by Lawrence’s Jaguars three weeks ago in a 38-10 loss. Which Seattle passing offense shows up next week?
The Giants pass defense may be held up only by the fact that they haven’t had an interception yet this season. But New York also hasn’t allowed more than 23 points in any contest and they rank ninth in adjusted net yards/pass attempt. Then finally, before the bye week, a Bucs defense that allowed 41 points to Mahomes, but not more than 15 points in any of their other four games.
Which Geno Smith will we see? I hope it is the Geno Smith that you want to see. There are still 12 more opportunities to evaluate if he’s the Geno Smith that the Seahawks need to see.
Because this is a league where a salary cap exists as well as one where 53 contracts have to fit within that maximum, a QB's performance to cost ratio should be calculated. At Geno's $3.5M contract, his performing as the Greatest value QB in the NFL must be appreciated.
Sure, there are maybe even 2 dozen passers one might rather have on their team but as long as Geno is this cheap, his return is off the charts. As long as he can be retained at $8-10M max beyond this year, lets keep him.
Those who think Teddy Bridgewater's 3yr/$63M contract from Carolina is a worthy comp for an upcoming Geno Smith contract they need to be reminded that a 27-yr old journeyman mostly starter QB is worth at least 2x of a 32-yr old mostly back-up quarterback coming off a red-hot season.
Even if we keep him, an eventual replacement will need to be identified. Maybe Drew Lock is that guy or perhaps Grayson McCall/KJ Jefferson type of 3rd/4th-round pick to compete with Lock as the back-up/future starter.
Definitely NOT a big trade-up in the first round - that too closely resembles what perpetually Bad teams do. Plus, we need to field a better Defense, which will take a premium talent infusion as well. NO future QB is worth ignoring that need.
If he stays healthy he will continue to shine ,Geno is running this offence with confidence ,skill and some truly epic throws and decisions.....sign him and go defense in next years draft with the exception of Grayson McCall in the 3rd or maybe even 2nd ,thank you for introducing me to that kid ...Now stop talking about him .