Are Seahawks as good as they should be by now?

Why are the Seahawks as bad on defense today as they have been in the past four seasons? When is it supposed to get better? Seaside Joe 1710

I know that a lot of Seahawks fans, including myself, went into last season expecting the team to need at least a couple of years to reload a depleted roster and an offense that would have to start over at quarterback for the first time in a decade. For that reason, I think Seattle has been given a lot of slack for their underwhelming performances in spite of a 14-11 record since the start of 2022, but I have straightfoward question to ask about the Seahawks being among the NFL’s “fine” teams right now:

Why?

Why should we expect the Seahawks to be a team that hasn’t had a really strong win since 2019 to continue to be a franchise in transition mode? Why should we see the Seahawks get embarrassed by the Ravens and play so much worse than teams like the Colts, Steelers, Titans, and Cardinals did—And then tell ourself that it’s okay because Baltimore is just “ahead of Seattle in the development process”? They are? Why?

Why do we dismiss Seattle’s mediocrity as being explained by “youth and inexperience” when the majority of the Seahawks defense is manned by veterans, many of whom are highly-paid?

It would be one thing if the defense was constructed to expect lumps this season, similar to the L.A. Rams trading Jalen Ramsey and then cutting Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd to just survive for a year, but that wasn’t the case. The Seahawks signed Wagner, as well as Julian Love, Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Mario Edwards, which are not moves you make for 2024.

Why are the Seahawks as bad on defense today as they were in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022?

Seattle is 22nd in points allowed per game, which is exactly where they ranked in 2019. They were 19th in points allowed per drive that season and they are 20th in that category today. Despite slight improvements in 2020 and 2021, the Seahawks are right back where they started and for yet another year are playing way too many snaps on defense, can’t get off the field, can’t stop third downs (42.3% allowed in 2022, 45.3% allowed in 2023), and can’t stop the run.

Why?

Think of these questions as less of a rant against the Seahawks, I’m not voicing any frustrations. I’m looking for answers as to why the Seahawks get a pass this season if the team continues to play like this because I’m starting to lose sight of the long-term vision and wondering why Seattle isn’t closer to being competitive against the NFL’s best teams.

I was ready and willing for a bad season in 2022 because I did not expect the offense to be able to score any points with Geno Smith, but instead it’s been the offense carrying the defense for the most part. And the offense isn’t good.

The Seahawks rank 17th in points per game right now, which would be the second-lowest for the team since 2012, just ahead of ranking 18th in 2016. The Seahawks are 20th in yards per game, which would be tied with 2021 for the team’s lowest ranking since 2011.

If you had told me at the beginning of the 2022 season that the Seahawks would be roughly the 20th best offense in the NFL by 2023, I would have thought that pretty good and a probable improvement from the previous season. Instead, the offense has been significantly worse and it also feels less acceptable because of the investments made (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Charles Cross, Noah Fant, DK Metcalf’s extension, Evan Brown) on that side of the ball who have played significant snaps this year.

The Seahawks rank 10th on offense in DVOA, but that feels pointless to me because where would Seattle rank without games against the Lions and Panthers?

Does it really make John Schneider feel better about upcoming games against the 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles because the Seahawks were able to hang 37 points on the Carolina Panthers?

The Panthers play like that almost every week. The Seahawks do not. Is that acceptable at this stage of Seattle’s process when we know that the team hasn’t really qualified as great since 2015? I want to hear from you because I’m genuinely asking:

Maybe it is. Maybe you throw out every other season except for the last one or two and tell yourselves that you want to be as competitive as you can be right now and expect to be among the NFL’s elite by next year. Is it acceptable for the Seahawks to not be competing for a Super Bowl in 2024?

I don’t think it would be. The Seahawks have to be competing for the Super Bowl by next season, or I won’t be asking “Why?” anymore. I’ll be saying:

When?

If not now and if not next year, then when are Seahawks fans allowed to hold Pete Carroll to Super Bowl standards? And how old is Geno Smith expected to be when he’s ready to be the quarterback of a great team? 37? 40?

The Seahawks had a +81 point differential in 2018, then it fell to +7 in 2019, jumped to +88 in 2020, dropped to +29 in 2021, and then +6 in 2022. You can call it a rudimentary team stat, because it is, but it won’t change the fact that great teams are usually outscoring opponents by at least 120 points over the course of a season.

Last year, the 49ers (NFC Championship), Bills (Division Round), Eagles (Super Bowl Loss), Chiefs (Super Bowl), Cowboys (Division), and Bengals (AFC Championship) were the top six teams in point differential. All but the Bengals (+96) were at least +125.

The Seahawks were +6 last season. They are -4 so far this season.

If not now, and if in none of the previous seven years, then…When?

If the Seahawks don’t know when, do they know…

How?

I honestly struggle to see the talent disparity between the Seahawks and Ravens, at least how we expected these players to perform going into the season. Baltimore does have great players, like Roquan Smith, and they’ve made draft investments like Kyle Hamilton, Patrick Queen, Justin Madubuike, Marlon Humphrey (who has missed half of the season), and they landed a potential steal at safety with Geno Stone.

Okay. Sure.

I thought the Seahawks had those too.

It’s meant to be a compliment, the Seahawks have Diggs, Adams, Dre’Mont Jones, Wagner, Brooks, Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Uchenna Nwosu (had), Reed, Boye Mafe, Tre Brown, and just traded for Leonard Williams.

Am I really reaching to say that on paper, Seattle and Baltimore don’t seem to have this incredible disparity of talent or investments? If anything, I think the Seahawks have tried to do more actually.

Do the Seahawks still know HOW to get there? Are these the players WHO they needed? And why does it feel like any time someone on defense is presented with a chance to tackle someone, they seem to be saying “What?”

I know that in some past seasons, the Seahawks did not start to gel until midseason and ended up being not only the best versions of themselves in the second half of the year…Seattle went from the middle to arguably the best team in the NFL by the end of 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015.

However, I struggle to connect this team to those teams because those Seahawks teams never got as embarrassed early or midway through the season as what Seattle just experienced in Baltimore. Or really, if we’re being honest about how the Seahawks played against the 49ers in 2022 or the manner in which they lost to the Raiders, Panthers, and Chiefs last season, how the Seahawks have played recently in spite of winning more often than they lose.

What I want to see from the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10 against the Washington Moons is a team performance that shows that progress actually has been made from 2021 and 2022. There has only been one game all season in which both the offense and the defense was on the right side of EPA (Estimated Points Added) and that was a hohum 20-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals, the team with the worst record in the NFL. Even then, Seattle had a negative EPA on special teams.

The Seahawks only had one game in 2022 with a good EPA on offense, defense, and special teams. That also came against the Cardinals.

If not this weekend, then when? If the team will get better, then how? And if the Seahawks do not improve this season and the regime is expected to get credit for being on the right track to contend for a Super Bowl in 2024, then why?