Great article Ken. I think having Okata and Sutherland on the PS as safeties also helps Seattle next year in releasing both Diggs and Adams. That Cap space will help with resigning Brooks, Brown, Williams, a guard and maybe help Seattle find a real swing Tackle. I see Brown getting resigned at center as well. Fant and Parkinson should be resigned as well. I think Seattle placing Levi Bell PS/injured a few weeks back is keeping him from being poached. I beleive they have plans for him next year.
Which brings me to QB. Should Seattle attempt to sign Browning away from Cincy next year (He was a walk on for Seattle years back). He has been waiting to get a shot for some years now while paying out of his own pocket for additional traing and he might be just the ticket. Seattle's answer to Brock Purdy with NW history. Seattle could focus on a QB outside of the first round and use some draft capital on OL, LB and DL. Does Tyler become a cap casualty. He is mssing something this year and it may be time for Seattle to look to JSN, Thompson and Young and a later draft pick for filling the slot. Nick Belore needs to move on and use O' Connel in his place. I think Seattle has some real gems on this years practice squad that could help this team and it's cap next year.
Frank Clark. Never mind. I really wish Seattle would have given Bell a shot before his PS/ injury designation. Youth is the the ticket and most of these moves capitlize on that. As far as leadership I think Seattle has numerous young leaders in the house who will bring some fresh energy to the team.
Quick note on Spoon. A little humble pie goes a long way in his development.
Unless Seattle has two huge upsets the next couple of weeks, next year seems to be the focus.
Very Good article, I agree with almost all of it! The one thing I would say, is starting DW at the nickel and Tre at LCB from the beginning of the game and they know their roles, seems to have been the best option and get the best play. Go Hawks!!!
Addition by subtraction. Absolutely, we need to put the Adams trade to bed. Do an exorcism, and do some feng shui to cleanse our team. You win some and you lose some. The lesson I have been learning over the years with this teams' cornerbacks, is that ball skills are underrated. We should never value a cb just because he can stay with receivers occasionally. They need to be able to catch the ball when it hits them in the chest.
I still somehow expect Diggs to intercept 4 or 5 passes in the next 5 games and redeem himself for the season, but maybe it won't happen and Pete will fall out of love with him.
For the same reason youth was honored in battle by the Spartans (they heal faster and more completely) the NFL favors youth. Teams are nearly compelled to choose youth over experience anywhere they can, and most teams choose safety for one of those positions where they save money. But Reed was playing very instinctively and well whenever he was on the field. Sign me up for drafting players ready to play on day one. Russell Wilson embodied that spirit.
Here's a thing I learned just today. It is entirely in the "FWIW" category. Also in the "YMMV" category, and possibly in the "Please O Please go away" category.
If I take the RYO eigenvector model I built over the weekend (see my comment a couple of days ago) & add a "decay" factor...such that games that are more recent have more influence on ranking than do games early in the season...where the decay time constant is (more or less) twice the IR period (four games * x 2...plus a couple more games for "getting back into it")...and then I include the most recent results for every game played this past weekend...
Baltimore ends up "a bit" more powerful than SF. That's because SF's recent losses have not decayed much, and their early wins are starting to fade pretty fast - the decay is an exponential (which I suspect is too harsh).
Seattle drops to just one step ahead of the Looney Bin, which is at the bottom. There's actually quite a cluster down there. (It might be a Charlie Foxtrot, but I didn't want to look too close.) The model is really punishing the 'hawks for their poor recent performance, some of which is against teams that are not all that great (according to the model). As I'd expect, it did not punish them very much for getting creamed by SF ('cause...y'know...who doesn't, these days?).
According to the RYO, Philly is still a much easier prospect than the 'Niners. Philly is kind of in the middle-ish of the pack. Although they've won a lot of games, they play in a weak-ish division & have not usually been "dominant" in their wins, so that passes at least the squint test. The RYO punishes them for both of those two things. They are not far off of Dallas, so I'm looking forward to that (it should give me a clear indication of how bad my RYO skills are).
Those conclusions are pretty stable when I screw around with the decay (until the "time constant" drops below about 4 games). I'm playing with an s-shaped ("sigmoid") curve that will provide a more intuitive decay shape, but it isn't ready to go, yet.
Also, with a bit of extra time, I synthesized four sets of inputs so that I'd know what the answer should be. E.g., all games tie at the same score xcpt for one team that wins every game bigly. To my surprise...it did pretty much what I expected it to do. I am still trying to internalize that...it is almost unprecedented, and scares me more than just a little bit!
Please don't commit anything monetary on this basis! It was just interesting (and I had too much time on my hands again, waiting for contractors to show up).
Fresh out of my graduate stats course I tried to develop a predictive model that would give me an edge in the MNF pool I was in at a local bar. I like the way you are thinking, but the variables that result in upsets are just so hard to quantify... injuries and things like playing on turf or grass, kickers!!! Conceptually it is possible to account for these variables (and the guys in Vegas seem to do so) but I didn't get as far with it as you have.
I took a much, much simpler approach. It doesn't even try to account for any of those things. It accounts only for scoring, both "for" and "against". It uses that to estimate a ranking, which isn't directly predictive.
There were some things in the static model that looked odd. The dynamic model also has oddities. I don't completely buy either one of them at the moment.
Last night was fun. The RYO model suggested that CIN and JAX were not nearly as far apart as their win percentage ranking suggested, even when taking mean opponent percentage into account. Using median opponent percentage gave me yet a third answer to work with...and was actually quite the revelation.
Might as well start the young guys now because the playoffs are a pipe dream. Save cap space by waiving Adam's, Diggs Clark, Dissly among some others and make B. Wags a defensive coach.
Draft a mobile young QB and use the money saved on FAs and the draft to fill the holes.
Speculation Dept: Pete would like to renegotiate Dissly, keep Parkinson, and move on from Fant with the idea that the offense would then have an approximation of Zach Miller and Luke Willson at TE.
Fant is going to move on from us, and not the other way around. He has a very very nice set of hands. The best we've seen. I'll be sorry to see him go.
Time to get young on defense. A young defense is a fast defense. And in this league, not being fast on D is a death sentence (IMO). The one exception I WOULD have made was to sign Bruce Irvin instead of Frank Clark. One can still accomplish something. We signed the other.
I have ZERO worries about Witherspoon. Every now and then you see him being taken to school. But it’s so rare. I thing he’s playing like a prime time second year CB. Still learning a few things but really on point.
The return of Lucas and Walker means so much to this O. The gif in the column says it all.
I’m really high on the future Seahawks. Not as high on current Seahawks. But still expecting the playoffs.
If SSJ is the first to wish "that Seattle had THAT JAMAL ADAMS more than I do. I vehemently defended the trade and the contract extension against criticism and clearly did so to a fault."
Then I might be the second or third to have wished that outcome. I'm finally ready to say, right out loud, it was a mistake, a bad trade. The 'Hawks should have passed on that deal and found someone else that contributed just as much, maybe more, for half the price. My stupid brother-in-law was right.
I was onboard with bringing Adams over. I can look back now with my perfect hindsight vision and see that it wasn't the right move. However, that is not the same thing as saying the people who were not onboard were right. Injuries have been almost entirely the problem, and you just can never predict how many or how bad they'll be when aquiring a player. If Adams didn't miss so much time, he would certainly be a better version of himself than we see now, and have made some degree of impact more than he has. So, if we had to do it all over again, I am not convinced I would change my opinion about it at the time we made the trade.
I think it would be best to really search for good Safety and Linebacker Starters.
Diggs and Adams are not the best Safety duo in the League like they are paid and we really need a coverage LB with instincts.
Great article Ken. I think having Okata and Sutherland on the PS as safeties also helps Seattle next year in releasing both Diggs and Adams. That Cap space will help with resigning Brooks, Brown, Williams, a guard and maybe help Seattle find a real swing Tackle. I see Brown getting resigned at center as well. Fant and Parkinson should be resigned as well. I think Seattle placing Levi Bell PS/injured a few weeks back is keeping him from being poached. I beleive they have plans for him next year.
Which brings me to QB. Should Seattle attempt to sign Browning away from Cincy next year (He was a walk on for Seattle years back). He has been waiting to get a shot for some years now while paying out of his own pocket for additional traing and he might be just the ticket. Seattle's answer to Brock Purdy with NW history. Seattle could focus on a QB outside of the first round and use some draft capital on OL, LB and DL. Does Tyler become a cap casualty. He is mssing something this year and it may be time for Seattle to look to JSN, Thompson and Young and a later draft pick for filling the slot. Nick Belore needs to move on and use O' Connel in his place. I think Seattle has some real gems on this years practice squad that could help this team and it's cap next year.
Frank Clark. Never mind. I really wish Seattle would have given Bell a shot before his PS/ injury designation. Youth is the the ticket and most of these moves capitlize on that. As far as leadership I think Seattle has numerous young leaders in the house who will bring some fresh energy to the team.
Quick note on Spoon. A little humble pie goes a long way in his development.
Unless Seattle has two huge upsets the next couple of weeks, next year seems to be the focus.
It might make sense to have two of three highest-paid safeties if they were two of three best safeties. But…
Very Good article, I agree with almost all of it! The one thing I would say, is starting DW at the nickel and Tre at LCB from the beginning of the game and they know their roles, seems to have been the best option and get the best play. Go Hawks!!!
Addition by subtraction. Absolutely, we need to put the Adams trade to bed. Do an exorcism, and do some feng shui to cleanse our team. You win some and you lose some. The lesson I have been learning over the years with this teams' cornerbacks, is that ball skills are underrated. We should never value a cb just because he can stay with receivers occasionally. They need to be able to catch the ball when it hits them in the chest.
I still somehow expect Diggs to intercept 4 or 5 passes in the next 5 games and redeem himself for the season, but maybe it won't happen and Pete will fall out of love with him.
For the same reason youth was honored in battle by the Spartans (they heal faster and more completely) the NFL favors youth. Teams are nearly compelled to choose youth over experience anywhere they can, and most teams choose safety for one of those positions where they save money. But Reed was playing very instinctively and well whenever he was on the field. Sign me up for drafting players ready to play on day one. Russell Wilson embodied that spirit.
All alone at the end of the ball game
And the bright lights have faded to blue
I was thinking 'bout the players
That might have aged out
and the plays they can't do.
You know I've always been a dreamer (watched 'Hawks since 94)
And it's so hard to change (got to show some players out the door)
'Cuz the games I've seen lately
Keep on turning out and burning out and turning out the same
So get me some draft picks
And some FAs to a sign
Take it to the limit
One more time
Apologies to the Eagles... (no not THOSE Eagles... )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhowXKEjjZ8
KJ Wright quoted Richard Sherman as saying that Adams is simultaneously one of the best players on the defense and its greatest liability.
Same for bwagz
Am with you Seaside Joe.
The safeties have to go.
Not only for the cap
But cuz their play is crap.
Frank Clark’s the walking dead
But need Wagz for his head.
The O-line now is better
So Geno pls finish your letter
Here's a thing I learned just today. It is entirely in the "FWIW" category. Also in the "YMMV" category, and possibly in the "Please O Please go away" category.
If I take the RYO eigenvector model I built over the weekend (see my comment a couple of days ago) & add a "decay" factor...such that games that are more recent have more influence on ranking than do games early in the season...where the decay time constant is (more or less) twice the IR period (four games * x 2...plus a couple more games for "getting back into it")...and then I include the most recent results for every game played this past weekend...
Baltimore ends up "a bit" more powerful than SF. That's because SF's recent losses have not decayed much, and their early wins are starting to fade pretty fast - the decay is an exponential (which I suspect is too harsh).
Seattle drops to just one step ahead of the Looney Bin, which is at the bottom. There's actually quite a cluster down there. (It might be a Charlie Foxtrot, but I didn't want to look too close.) The model is really punishing the 'hawks for their poor recent performance, some of which is against teams that are not all that great (according to the model). As I'd expect, it did not punish them very much for getting creamed by SF ('cause...y'know...who doesn't, these days?).
According to the RYO, Philly is still a much easier prospect than the 'Niners. Philly is kind of in the middle-ish of the pack. Although they've won a lot of games, they play in a weak-ish division & have not usually been "dominant" in their wins, so that passes at least the squint test. The RYO punishes them for both of those two things. They are not far off of Dallas, so I'm looking forward to that (it should give me a clear indication of how bad my RYO skills are).
Those conclusions are pretty stable when I screw around with the decay (until the "time constant" drops below about 4 games). I'm playing with an s-shaped ("sigmoid") curve that will provide a more intuitive decay shape, but it isn't ready to go, yet.
Also, with a bit of extra time, I synthesized four sets of inputs so that I'd know what the answer should be. E.g., all games tie at the same score xcpt for one team that wins every game bigly. To my surprise...it did pretty much what I expected it to do. I am still trying to internalize that...it is almost unprecedented, and scares me more than just a little bit!
Please don't commit anything monetary on this basis! It was just interesting (and I had too much time on my hands again, waiting for contractors to show up).
Fresh out of my graduate stats course I tried to develop a predictive model that would give me an edge in the MNF pool I was in at a local bar. I like the way you are thinking, but the variables that result in upsets are just so hard to quantify... injuries and things like playing on turf or grass, kickers!!! Conceptually it is possible to account for these variables (and the guys in Vegas seem to do so) but I didn't get as far with it as you have.
I took a much, much simpler approach. It doesn't even try to account for any of those things. It accounts only for scoring, both "for" and "against". It uses that to estimate a ranking, which isn't directly predictive.
There were some things in the static model that looked odd. The dynamic model also has oddities. I don't completely buy either one of them at the moment.
Last night was fun. The RYO model suggested that CIN and JAX were not nearly as far apart as their win percentage ranking suggested, even when taking mean opponent percentage into account. Using median opponent percentage gave me yet a third answer to work with...and was actually quite the revelation.
Might as well start the young guys now because the playoffs are a pipe dream. Save cap space by waiving Adam's, Diggs Clark, Dissly among some others and make B. Wags a defensive coach.
Draft a mobile young QB and use the money saved on FAs and the draft to fill the holes.
Speculation Dept: Pete would like to renegotiate Dissly, keep Parkinson, and move on from Fant with the idea that the offense would then have an approximation of Zach Miller and Luke Willson at TE.
Fant is going to move on from us, and not the other way around. He has a very very nice set of hands. The best we've seen. I'll be sorry to see him go.
Disagree - he is half a TE-
Don't forget 29th in opponent 3rd down conversation rate at 45.18%
Time to get young on defense. A young defense is a fast defense. And in this league, not being fast on D is a death sentence (IMO). The one exception I WOULD have made was to sign Bruce Irvin instead of Frank Clark. One can still accomplish something. We signed the other.
I have ZERO worries about Witherspoon. Every now and then you see him being taken to school. But it’s so rare. I thing he’s playing like a prime time second year CB. Still learning a few things but really on point.
The return of Lucas and Walker means so much to this O. The gif in the column says it all.
I’m really high on the future Seahawks. Not as high on current Seahawks. But still expecting the playoffs.
If SSJ is the first to wish "that Seattle had THAT JAMAL ADAMS more than I do. I vehemently defended the trade and the contract extension against criticism and clearly did so to a fault."
Then I might be the second or third to have wished that outcome. I'm finally ready to say, right out loud, it was a mistake, a bad trade. The 'Hawks should have passed on that deal and found someone else that contributed just as much, maybe more, for half the price. My stupid brother-in-law was right.
I was onboard with bringing Adams over. I can look back now with my perfect hindsight vision and see that it wasn't the right move. However, that is not the same thing as saying the people who were not onboard were right. Injuries have been almost entirely the problem, and you just can never predict how many or how bad they'll be when aquiring a player. If Adams didn't miss so much time, he would certainly be a better version of himself than we see now, and have made some degree of impact more than he has. So, if we had to do it all over again, I am not convinced I would change my opinion about it at the time we made the trade.
However, it IS time to let him go.
Witherspoon had his worst game against Dallas. He will learn from it.
Adams and Diggs wow … they have to be better. Watching Lamb taunt Adams sort of said it all as he scored
Clark should sit. Let’s see what the young guys have
Let’s see what the other rookie we have ( and has yet to play ) can do. I have seen enough of Dallas.
DW at nickel ,though-