There are so many directions this could go based on performance in the new coaching schemes on both sides of the ball. So many 1-year (or essentially 1 year) contracts on the team. Preferences at this point come down to… Who do you love?
(After getting a surprised reaction to a Katy Perry reference, I am going back to a blast from the past for this one: the 1956 version, original with BO):
- The advantage to an article like this one, which I expect pushback on because certainly fans are expected to like certain players a lot and want to see them stay with the team for 3+ years (as I do too), is that it sets the first data point of expectations. Whereas this article might feel like "Ugh, I would HATE to even think about why a player would or wouldn't go", the followups are what I'm looking forward to: When we get to the end of the year and it's like "Wow, this guy went from 2-star to 5-star", etc. That's what I'm really looking forward to and I do expect almost everyone above a 2-star, and a lot of the 2-star guys, to stick around.
Then I would say this voting is more about how we see the future than weight the past. Even though, in many eyes, Geno is underrated. I suppose those same people think we overrate Geno. But I believe Geno will feast in this offense, and he will be seen as a top two or three QB. Still behind Mahomes perhaps, but right behind him. So Geno will certainly be here next year if what I see in the future comes to pass. Good information. I respect your opinion over my own on cap issues, but on Geno we differ, maybe.
I'm saving that quote for Game 6 against the Niners. Or our Super Bowl win. I honestly don't see Geno having another transfer in him. He knows he can get his SB ticket here, this year or next.
I see Geno as a top ten QB as long as our O-line can jell together and improve as I think they will as the season progresses. If the Hawks truly are able to balance the offense between run and pass I see an improved offense to also include a better time balance because of an improved Defense. If these two things come to pass this year Seattle could be WAY better than many believe!
I might bump Knight and Sataoah Laumea up a notch. Re Knight, MM mentioned that he told Knight personally that he was three years away; I heard enough good about Laumea in the wake of the draft to figure that if Stone Forsyth could make the roster on his third year, surely Laumea can. But these are less than quibbles.
Thank you for writing this article, quite an interesting take. Great work sticking your neck out there again, one of the things that makes you THE place to read about the Seahawks. Of course I don't agree with all (I have my own biases, such as I would never, ever pay DK a big contract next year, but that may not be the way the 'Hawks think about it), but you know a heck of a lot more about football and the Seahawks than me. You study their history and actions so closely, you are correct quite often and put other sources to shame.
I would like to have seen a better distribution with equivalent numbers at the 1 and 5 tails. I like that 3 has the most as the mid position. I am a fan of forced distributions since usual bias is to overrate (this was one of the most valuable tools I had in managing my leaders and how they reviewed their people at review time).
Jeez…….Stone Forsythe was supposed to be gone years ago according to some pundits. Here is making the team again. Hell I am going to start rooting for him! May the 12s be with you and Go Seahawks!
So long as he gets TE help, he's done okay, as we saw in Detroit last year (and that was using Parkinson at times). You simply can't replace a decent athlete his size.
Very interesting article and a tough one. So many different ways to go here.
One thing that sets this team apart than maybe a traditional new coach is that the team is mostly set. Many coaches get fired and bottom out. But this team is already in year 3 of rebuilding. So, there will be some auditions but for the most part this team is ready to hit the gas pedal and win (this is also what JS believes).
I don't really see how Geno and DK would be on different tiers. DK would have to ascend to a Justin Jefferson level to fire the QB and keep the high priced WR. I just don't see a non-injury related scenario where this plays out. If the Hawks are good or really good ... Are they not going to extend their QB? Conversely, if the Hawks are bad are they going to pay top market for a WR? I kind of see the most likely thing being they are either both here or we have bigger problems, and they are both gone with the team starting another rebuild.
In the case that they are really good, like I think they will be. It would still be surprising if Geno asks for a top market deal. That would make it more likely to me that he would be back over DK if you had to pick one. Plus, you have JSN and new impact WR coming into the league consistently these days. So, I would think it is more likely that Geno is back over DK. But also, I think that they will both be back. Lastly, there is no way Geno is playing on the contract as it is currently written next year. That would be shocking to me. Both players won't play on it, IMO.
Also, for the extend Geno conversation. Brady Henderson said yesterday that JS never extends prior to final year. So, the whole contract talk is pretty much a moot point:
If Geno plays like he did in 2023 he will definitely be extended.
The problem is that Geno is significantly better than Howell currently. Also, Geno is just a really good qb so it would be extremely hard to replace him. If the team is good then you have to extend. If the team is bad then you cut and go through a down period or hope that Howell makes a miraculous turn around.
There would be a reason for both parties to extend now. But I understand that JS doesn’t want to set that precedent. Which is prudent.
Remember that Geno has objectively not better in 2023 than he was in 2022. He did not hit any of his contract incentives that were all based on his 2022 performance.
So… if he turns in another year that shows no improvement I would expect the Seahawks to move on.
Maybe because… they are in his contract as incentives? And they are all outcome measures? Clearly Geno and the Seahawks thought they were important indicators of his performance.
I think one thing that is sometimes forgotten is How Bad our line was last year. All the fill-ins and rotation just doesn't bode well for the O-line and then for the QB behind them. But he still had a good final stretch at the end of last year ( for the most part) better than I think many give him credit for.
Call me nuts, but I see DK as a Man's Man. In my world, if I make a contract, I stick to it and disregard the distractions as Noise. He's a Leader with trepidations, who will step up, but surely there is someone who is better at leading? So lead... send this message to the other guys and their agents, DK. If the Aim is a Super Bowl (or 2 or 3), how much bonus does a guy get by reaching it? How many rabid fans can no longer afford a day at the Park, much less a Championship Game? Soon enough, the stands will be full of people who can't afford to hoarsen their voice by cheering loudly.
Geno once said he hoped to be a QB Coach after playing. If given assurances, I suspect he will make Seattle home and do what is necessary to maintain the Team. I also think Tyler has similar intentions for staying (Real Estate Business) and will take a contract tailored to make it easy on JS to keep him, albeit in a less intense role (if that is even possible).
I think the only way we'd lose the two star rookies or Olu is if they got demoted to the PS and poached by another team. Cheap O-line options are too valuable to let walk unless you know they're never going to even be a backup quality guy for you. We all wonder about why Stone is still here, but then we see some of these other guys struggle against 3rd string DEs/OLBs and it all makes sense.
I bet the coaches like Olu just fine. Even if Pete/Waldron especially liked him, they still took him in the 5th round and made him a backup. I don't think this coaching staff is treating him any differently, and they likely still see room for growth. Williams is only signed for the season, so we'll see what happens.
Great list. I don’t think I’d change any of them. My only quibble (and it’s TINY) is I would add K’von Wallace to the survey question about which tier 2 players are the biggest snubs for not making tier 3. I truly believe he’s a tier 2 now. But he might be tier 3 by mid or late season.
Good Breakdown, and I agree with most of your choices. I have yet to see anything from Coby Bryant that warrants him being anywhere but two star or one! We shall see this year. I will be hugely surprised if Sataoa isn't here past 2025. He needs some schooling in pass protection(technique) but the dude was a road grader for Utah in the run game, and everything I have read is he is teachable and has the basic O-linemen skills to move forward with the proper coaching in the pass game. Go Hawks!
I feel like K’Von Wallace is a real sleeper on this team, hoping it all clicks for him in Mac’s system. I was more intrigued by him than Rayshawn Jenkins despite less to show for so far in their respective careers.
There are so many directions this could go based on performance in the new coaching schemes on both sides of the ball. So many 1-year (or essentially 1 year) contracts on the team. Preferences at this point come down to… Who do you love?
(After getting a surprised reaction to a Katy Perry reference, I am going back to a blast from the past for this one: the 1956 version, original with BO):
https://youtu.be/e5tSgiB_Tgc?si=0BBUhOHso7ZlKMQD
SEA MORE COMMENTS:
- The advantage to an article like this one, which I expect pushback on because certainly fans are expected to like certain players a lot and want to see them stay with the team for 3+ years (as I do too), is that it sets the first data point of expectations. Whereas this article might feel like "Ugh, I would HATE to even think about why a player would or wouldn't go", the followups are what I'm looking forward to: When we get to the end of the year and it's like "Wow, this guy went from 2-star to 5-star", etc. That's what I'm really looking forward to and I do expect almost everyone above a 2-star, and a lot of the 2-star guys, to stick around.
Then I would say this voting is more about how we see the future than weight the past. Even though, in many eyes, Geno is underrated. I suppose those same people think we overrate Geno. But I believe Geno will feast in this offense, and he will be seen as a top two or three QB. Still behind Mahomes perhaps, but right behind him. So Geno will certainly be here next year if what I see in the future comes to pass. Good information. I respect your opinion over my own on cap issues, but on Geno we differ, maybe.
Well said.
The great thing about Geno ... You know what you can hang your hat on: He is extremely accurate and the most accurate QB over the past 2 years.
I also see him ascending to top QB in NFC and top 5 in league.
I hope he does and then he can say “I wrote back”!
I'm saving that quote for Game 6 against the Niners. Or our Super Bowl win. I honestly don't see Geno having another transfer in him. He knows he can get his SB ticket here, this year or next.
I see Geno as a top ten QB as long as our O-line can jell together and improve as I think they will as the season progresses. If the Hawks truly are able to balance the offense between run and pass I see an improved offense to also include a better time balance because of an improved Defense. If these two things come to pass this year Seattle could be WAY better than many believe!
I might bump Knight and Sataoah Laumea up a notch. Re Knight, MM mentioned that he told Knight personally that he was three years away; I heard enough good about Laumea in the wake of the draft to figure that if Stone Forsyth could make the roster on his third year, surely Laumea can. But these are less than quibbles.
Thank you for writing this article, quite an interesting take. Great work sticking your neck out there again, one of the things that makes you THE place to read about the Seahawks. Of course I don't agree with all (I have my own biases, such as I would never, ever pay DK a big contract next year, but that may not be the way the 'Hawks think about it), but you know a heck of a lot more about football and the Seahawks than me. You study their history and actions so closely, you are correct quite often and put other sources to shame.
I would like to have seen a better distribution with equivalent numbers at the 1 and 5 tails. I like that 3 has the most as the mid position. I am a fan of forced distributions since usual bias is to overrate (this was one of the most valuable tools I had in managing my leaders and how they reviewed their people at review time).
Jeez…….Stone Forsythe was supposed to be gone years ago according to some pundits. Here is making the team again. Hell I am going to start rooting for him! May the 12s be with you and Go Seahawks!
So long as he gets TE help, he's done okay, as we saw in Detroit last year (and that was using Parkinson at times). You simply can't replace a decent athlete his size.
Very interesting article and a tough one. So many different ways to go here.
One thing that sets this team apart than maybe a traditional new coach is that the team is mostly set. Many coaches get fired and bottom out. But this team is already in year 3 of rebuilding. So, there will be some auditions but for the most part this team is ready to hit the gas pedal and win (this is also what JS believes).
I don't really see how Geno and DK would be on different tiers. DK would have to ascend to a Justin Jefferson level to fire the QB and keep the high priced WR. I just don't see a non-injury related scenario where this plays out. If the Hawks are good or really good ... Are they not going to extend their QB? Conversely, if the Hawks are bad are they going to pay top market for a WR? I kind of see the most likely thing being they are either both here or we have bigger problems, and they are both gone with the team starting another rebuild.
In the case that they are really good, like I think they will be. It would still be surprising if Geno asks for a top market deal. That would make it more likely to me that he would be back over DK if you had to pick one. Plus, you have JSN and new impact WR coming into the league consistently these days. So, I would think it is more likely that Geno is back over DK. But also, I think that they will both be back. Lastly, there is no way Geno is playing on the contract as it is currently written next year. That would be shocking to me. Both players won't play on it, IMO.
Also, for the extend Geno conversation. Brady Henderson said yesterday that JS never extends prior to final year. So, the whole contract talk is pretty much a moot point:
https://x.com/BradyHenderson/status/1828942789503266824
Maybe Geno's agent wrote to Schneider, but JS didn't write back.
😂
There is a piece on Seattle sports (radio) site where JS says something like “we get approached on contracts every year. We don’t do that.”
Which wasn’t a specific rejection regarding Geno but wasn’t NOT a specific rejection either lol.
With respect to Geno:
1. He blows the doors off and his whole year performance is like the first few games of 2022–extension with a raise.
2. He turns in a performance that is pretty much 2023 with no real difference—cut at the end of the season
3. He struggles with the new scheme and/or is injured (hopefully not but, age)—Howell takes over and Geno gets cut.
Well just have to see what happens!
If Geno plays like he did in 2023 he will definitely be extended.
The problem is that Geno is significantly better than Howell currently. Also, Geno is just a really good qb so it would be extremely hard to replace him. If the team is good then you have to extend. If the team is bad then you cut and go through a down period or hope that Howell makes a miraculous turn around.
There would be a reason for both parties to extend now. But I understand that JS doesn’t want to set that precedent. Which is prudent.
Remember that Geno has objectively not better in 2023 than he was in 2022. He did not hit any of his contract incentives that were all based on his 2022 performance.
So… if he turns in another year that shows no improvement I would expect the Seahawks to move on.
Why are we using those stats to judge performance?
Why not use better information and data to judge performance?
Who cares about completion percentage, when you have completion percentage above expected? For example
Why not judge the performance and not archaic incentives?
Maybe because… they are in his contract as incentives? And they are all outcome measures? Clearly Geno and the Seahawks thought they were important indicators of his performance.
I think one thing that is sometimes forgotten is How Bad our line was last year. All the fill-ins and rotation just doesn't bode well for the O-line and then for the QB behind them. But he still had a good final stretch at the end of last year ( for the most part) better than I think many give him credit for.
Call me nuts, but I see DK as a Man's Man. In my world, if I make a contract, I stick to it and disregard the distractions as Noise. He's a Leader with trepidations, who will step up, but surely there is someone who is better at leading? So lead... send this message to the other guys and their agents, DK. If the Aim is a Super Bowl (or 2 or 3), how much bonus does a guy get by reaching it? How many rabid fans can no longer afford a day at the Park, much less a Championship Game? Soon enough, the stands will be full of people who can't afford to hoarsen their voice by cheering loudly.
Unfortunately the agents and then the players seldom look to those ideals-
Geno once said he hoped to be a QB Coach after playing. If given assurances, I suspect he will make Seattle home and do what is necessary to maintain the Team. I also think Tyler has similar intentions for staying (Real Estate Business) and will take a contract tailored to make it easy on JS to keep him, albeit in a less intense role (if that is even possible).
If TL still wants to play another year and I'm sure he understands the money scenario's and confers a bit to that I believe he will be back.
I think the only way we'd lose the two star rookies or Olu is if they got demoted to the PS and poached by another team. Cheap O-line options are too valuable to let walk unless you know they're never going to even be a backup quality guy for you. We all wonder about why Stone is still here, but then we see some of these other guys struggle against 3rd string DEs/OLBs and it all makes sense.
Maybe Olu is a Pete Guy and doesn't fit with MM?
I bet the coaches like Olu just fine. Even if Pete/Waldron especially liked him, they still took him in the 5th round and made him a backup. I don't think this coaching staff is treating him any differently, and they likely still see room for growth. Williams is only signed for the season, so we'll see what happens.
Great list. I don’t think I’d change any of them. My only quibble (and it’s TINY) is I would add K’von Wallace to the survey question about which tier 2 players are the biggest snubs for not making tier 3. I truly believe he’s a tier 2 now. But he might be tier 3 by mid or late season.
"(I don’t even know that I agree with 100% of my own lists!)" Like it. Keep on bein' You.
Good Breakdown, and I agree with most of your choices. I have yet to see anything from Coby Bryant that warrants him being anywhere but two star or one! We shall see this year. I will be hugely surprised if Sataoa isn't here past 2025. He needs some schooling in pass protection(technique) but the dude was a road grader for Utah in the run game, and everything I have read is he is teachable and has the basic O-linemen skills to move forward with the proper coaching in the pass game. Go Hawks!
I feel like K’Von Wallace is a real sleeper on this team, hoping it all clicks for him in Mac’s system. I was more intrigued by him than Rayshawn Jenkins despite less to show for so far in their respective careers.
I disagree with you thinking that none if us would agree with you 100%. I agree with you 100%, so we'll have to agree to disagree on not agreeing.
I’d swap Charbs and Mcintish around.
Great jumping off point for what will be a central theme throughout the season
I'm firmly in the who actually knows camp ,there fore I don't care!