Ranking Seahawks based on their odds of still being on the team next year

5 tiers for 54 Seahawks and their chances of making it to next year's final roster: Seaside Joe 2007

Sometimes I write articles about the Seahawks that even I want to get mad at myself for writing. But I don’t just write articles based on what could be said, I usually gravitate towards what should be said that isn’t being said.

And typically it seems those topics revolve around admitting that above all else: Winning playoff games in the NFL is just as much about being good at business as it is being good at football.

The salary cap and Seattle’s adjacence to that annual limit is a regular topic of conversation at Seaside Joe, not because it is fun, but because it is necessary to always be cognizant of what’s happening to the Seahawks financially. By staying aware of the Seahawks salary cap commitments, limitations, roster structure, and current contracts, we can better predict future agreements and disagreements between the front office and the players.

This knowledge can help predict a Russell Wilson trade in 2022. Or a DK Metcalf contract extension a few months later. Or what the Seahawks are most likely to do with Geno Smith when it’s his turn to sit at the table with John Schneider. Or a Tyler Lockett pay cut. As you’re aware if you’ve been subscribed to Seaside Joe this year, the next one we should stay cognizant of is Metcalf’s third career NFL contract and that’s going to be one of the biggest decisions that Schneider will make between now and 2025 training camp.

“Does this stuff even matter, Joe? The Seahawks will get to it when they get to it!”

True, but the whole point of bringing this up is that the Seahawks never want to get to the point where it’s too late to “get to it”.

Ask the 49ers, a team that is currently practicing without its number one receiver or Trent Williams, arguably the most important player on the team.

Ask the Bengals, they’re also practicing without their number one receiver, and he’s not even the Cincinnati receiver who is set to play on the franchise tag.

Ask the Rams, they just traded their best linebacker to the Titans for virtually nothing because he expected an extension and they never hid the fact that he was never going to get one from them.

Right now, the Seahawks are in a place that I’ll call, “Comfortably uncomfortable”.

Schneider and Pete Carroll did not draft enough good players prior to 2022 for the Seahawks to have many recent internal contract decisions of significance other than Metcalf, Lockett, and the time that Seattle traded Frank Clark to the Chiefs after placing the franchise tag on him. There were a lot of smaller moves, there were veteran deals for players like Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, and there have been recent decisions to part ways with “OK” picks like Jordyn Brooks.

But as other NFL players negotiate for deals worth $20 million, $30 million, and as much as $35 million per year for non-quarterbacks, the Seahawks can say, “You know, that sounds like a YOU problem” as rivals like Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk hold out for for potential backbreaking extensions with the 49ers.

That may give the illusion of comfort, but Schneider and Mike Macdonald must remain uncomfortable until Seattle is the team with control over All-Pro talents like Williams and Ja’Marr Chase.

That’s when we start to get into some of the recent draft picks who have flashed the talent to become franchise cornerstones and having to answer the question, “Who are the players who the Seahawks must build around and for how long are they going to be in Seattle?”

That’s why I’ve decided to place 54 Seahawks (53 active roster+Abe Lucas on PUP) into five tiers based on their likelihood of still being Seahawks in 2025:

What I’ve decided before Week 1 (and we can re-visit this after some games are played to see how much it has changed) is that roughly 20% of the players are locks to be here in 2025, but given that this is the NFL BUSINESS, and a consistently difficult business to survive in, over 40% of the current Seahawks roster is going to be in danger of being replaced by 2025.

Replaced by someone cheaper, someone younger, someone healthier, and in rare cases, someone older and more expensive, but better.

Here is how I have divided 54 current Seahawks based on expectations that they will still be Seahawks in 2025 given their age, contract situation, injury history, replaceability, position, investment, and whatever else seems to play a role in keeping players in place for multiple seasons beyond being here now.

This article is a great example to me of a newsletter that belongs in the Regular Joes bonus article category exclusive only to paid members, but I am going to keep it free today because I want Seahawks fans to see it, think about what your tiers would be like, and to not exclude any Seahawks fans.

That being said, since there are many FREE LONGFORM SEAHAWKS ARTICLES at Seaside Joe every single day, I would greatly appreciate your support if you are a free subscriber. It’s only $5 per month or $55 for an entire year to support as a Regular Joes subscriber, or if you’re a RJ already you could upgrade to Super Joes for $10 per month at a prorated annual rate if you want to help some more.

5-star/will be here 2025 (10 players)

CB Devon Witherspoon

LT Charles Cross

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

DE Leonard Williams

S Julian Love

RB Kenneth Walker III

OLB Boye Mafe

DT Byron Murphy II

G Christian Haynes

P Michael Dickson

The 5-star tier notes:

If we were being really, really, really tough on my picks for these 10 names, I’m guessing the only ones who would get ZERO pushback are Witherspoon and Murphy. You could make up far off scenarios for everybody else that are super unlikely to happen (Cross demands a trade, JSN has a worse season than his rookie season, Walker gets surpassed by Charbonnet, etc.), but it’s even less likely that Seattle’s top picks in the 2023 and 2024 are going to be playing for anyone else besides the Seahawks any time soon.

(Even in that case, you could point to a player like Minkah Fitzpatrick getting traded to the Steelers when he had seemingly done everything right for the Dolphins after being the 11th overall pick a year earlier.)

In my eyes, you’ve got young, cost-controlled players who are too talented to go anywhere this soon (Witherspoon, JSN, Murphy, Cross, Walker, Mafe) and then you’ve got the new-contract vets (Williams, Love) and Haynes, even if he doesn’t start right away, it would be stunning if the Seahawks part ways with a third round guard that soon. And though Dickson is the NFL’s most expensive punter, I see no reason for Seattle to risk a change at the position just to save $1-2 million. I’m also expecting this to be a great season for Dickson.

I was puzzled that Mafe played as much as he did in the preseason, but something freaky would have to happen for the Seahawks to part ways with a cheap ($2.7m 2025 cap hit) edge rusher who had nine sacks last year. Even in the event that Mafe has a breakout 2024 season and there’s some sort of contract stalemate because of it, the Seahawks wouldn’t be incentivized to trade Mafe without getting at least a first round pick; but the Panthers had a better pass rusher, Brian Burns, and only got a second and a fifth for him. Mafe would probably be forced to play out the 2025 season with or without an extension.

Cross is the 2022 draft pick most likely to get an extension from the Seahawks in 2025. If he has the breakout year that coaches seem to think he’s about to have, it’d make sense for Schneider to get that extension done sooner, not later. Now, I know that you’re scratching your head over some names not in the 5-star category. Let’s find out why I left them off.

4-star/will PROBABLY be here 2025 (10)

WR DK Metcalf

RT Abe Lucas*

TE Noah Fant

RB Zach Charbonnet

OLB Derick Hall

CB Riq Woolen

S Rayshawn Jenkins

WR Jake Bobo

K Jason Myers

LS Chris Stoll

The 4-star tier notes:

Would you believe that the only player I moved from 5-star to 4-star was Chris Stoll? Why rock the boat at longsnapper if you don’t have to and Stoll might even be that Pro Bowl longsnapper this season.

My comments on Metcalf’s impending contract situation are too well-documented to repeat now, but what I will say again is this: I’m very close to 100% that DK Metcalf won’t play with the Seahawks in 2025 unless he has a new contract. He’s not going to accept being the 15th-ish highest-paid receiver at a time when he has the resume to be a top-5 paid receiver.

“What do you mean? DK isn’t a top-5 receiver!”

I know. And Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t a top-5 receiver, but he’s fourth in salary. DK should make more than DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins, but he doesn’t. It’s not just about where you rank, it’s what you could get paid if you were an unrestricted free agent and if DK was a free agent this year, he’d be making at least $31 million per season. Right now he makes $24 million and that’s a huge difference if you’re lucky enough to be in a business where $24 million per year is an insult.

But again…DK is in the FOUR-STAR group, not the TWO-STAR. I think the Seahawks will extend DK Metcalf because it’s not like they have many other options in-house to pay right now and they don’t like going out-house.

Lucas would be five-star if I knew he’d even be playing for the Seahawks in Week 10. (I do not account for “potential injuries” in these rankings because ANYONE could potentially have a career-ending injury; in Abe’s case, we can’t ignore his injury problems.) Derick Hall might actually be better than Mafe, but unlike what I mostly see out there in terms of overreactions to preseason and practice, I’m simply not going to give players credit for things they didn’t do yet: Mafe has had good regular season games before, Hall hasn’t yet. But Hall is in this category, so that means I’m really confident he will be better and will be back.

I don’t want these tiers to come off as a thing where “Well, if you’re not five-star, that means you must be in danger.” No, that’s not at all my intention. It’s like hotels…There are some people who would never stay at a hotel below 5-stars, but MOST PEOPLE know that staying at a 4-star hotel is also great. You don’t have to be in the “most luxurious hotels in the world” to have a good stay, right?

A guy like Bobo is a smart bet to be on the Seahawks in 2025 and 2026 because he’s cheap, he’s good, he even has the potential to start for Seattle some day. He’s not in the 5-star category because if we’re being TOTALLY objective, he’s still a second-year player who doesn’t start for a team yet, who the team isn’t financially committed to, and who the team didn’t invest anything into via the draft. Pointing this out doesn’t mean I think Bobo won’t be on the Seahawks in 2025: I AM VERY CONFIDENT that Bobo will be on the Seahawks in 2025. I really hope that is clear.

I made a poll for this and unfortunately I’m only allowed up to 5 options…

If you want to pick someone else for the biggest snub, let me know in the comments:

3-star/I’m LEANING “YES” for 2025 (11)

QB Geno Smith

QB Sam Howell

RB Kenny McIntosh

TE Brady Russell

C Connor Williams

OT George Fant

G Anthony Bradford

LB Tyrice Knight

TE A.J. Barner

DB Coby Bryant

DT Jarran Reed

The 3-star tier notes:

Whether you lean heavily for or staunchly against Geno Smith’s placement as Seattle’s starting QB, you can’t deny the fact that the Seahawks don’t really like to get involved with the QB market unless they’re absolutely forced to do so. Given that Geno and Howell are both signed through 2025, I don’t think the Seahawks will attempt to make a change at the position (or the backup position) unless Geno flat out loses it. It’s Geno’s job to lose, not Howell’s to win, so it’s only a matter of whether Geno keeps the status quo and so long as he isn’t the reason that Seattle loses games, Schneider is compelled to keep him in 2025. If as nothing else, then as a bridge quarterback should the Seahawks finally draft another one; it’s still very unlikely that the Seahawks would be so bad in 2024 that they’d draft a QB so early in 2025 that he’s someone who could immediately start as a rookie.

It wouldn’t be that surprising if Howell or Geno is gone next year, but I would tend to think that at least one of the two is going to start for the Seahawks in Week 1 of 2025.

Reed isn’t signed past 2024, but I think he’s one of Seattle’s most likely 2025 free agents to be retained. Connor Williams is only signed for one year and hasn’t even played a game for the Seahawks yet, but Schneider mentioned in his press conference this week that the team has been working all offseason to assure that the center would come to Seattle when he was healthy enough to sign; the Seahawks seem to want to keep Williams if his knees hold up.

“Why is Seaside Joe saying that without a doubt Tyrice Knight is going to be cut next year?”

I think Knight IS going to be ON the Seahawks and he’s probably even going to start or at least semi-start. “He’s gone” is not what 3-star implies. But objectively, Knight is a day three pick, he’s firmly on the prove-it train, and that’s why I put Barner in this tier also. They’re both players who I know the Seahawks want to develop into key starters. History tells us that fourth round picks by Seattle is something like a 50/50 hit rate. That being said, almost every fourth round pick has played at least two seasons with the Seahawks, the most recent to not do that was Gary Jennings in 2019, and he got cut during his rookie season.

2-star/TOUGH CALL for 2025 (20)

WR Tyler Lockett

WR Dareke Young

WR Laviska Shenault

C Olu Oluwatimi

C Jalen Sundell

TE Pharaoh Brown

T Michael Jerrell

G Sataoah Laumea

DE Mike Morris

DT Johnathan Hankins

OLB Dre’Mont Jones

OLB Uchenna Nwosu

ILB Jerome Baker

ILB Tyrel Dodson

ILB Drake Thomas

OLB Trevis Gipson

CB Tre Brown

CB Nehemiah Pritchett

S K’Von Wallace

KR Dee Williams

The 2-star tier notes:

I should be the one who is the most comfortable with the 2-star list because I MADE IT and even then I’m still wincing at the sight of some of these names being on the fence for 2025. However, that’s the name of the game, everybody: Teams flip around their rosters every year, they cut and trade big names all the time, they especially do so when it’s a new coaching staff after having spent 14 years with somebody else calling the shots.

Lockett, Nwosu, and Jones are well-trod contractual territory at Seaside Joe. The team needs to create a lot of cap space next year, they’re the most obvious candidates to be released, retired, and/or traded. I want to believe that Nwosu and Jones will excel in Macdonald’s edge position this year, but it’s not even Week 1 and both have/had injuries already. For as much as we like Nwosu, he’s one of the NFL’s highest paid edges in 2025 and that doesn’t really jive with who he is and how much he’s been able to play recently. Every edge making over $20 million APY is a sack machine, but Nwosu’s only had one season (out of six) with more than 5 sacks.

Similar territory at inside linebacker as we have no solid evidence to go off of yet as far as the quality of signings Baker and Dodson, both on one-year deals. Let’s see who steps up. These players like Nwosu, Jones, Baker, Dodson, Brown, Shenault…Talk to me in Week 8. This is just me trying to be fair before any games have started and saying, “Let’s see how this plays out” because 2024 is such an AUDITION SEASON for many Seahawks. They need to audition for the new staff.

We used to think that Olu’s biggest obstacle was being good enough to start, but now his biggest obstacle is Jalen Sundell: Is Olu actually the Seahawks center of the future or is it Sundell now? Also, I like a guy like Tre Brown, he’s here because he’s a 2025 free agent and with his injury history it’s hard to forecast what his value will be to the Seahawks by the end of the season.

1-star/DON’T think so 2025 (3)

G Laken Tomlinson

T Stone Forsythe

DE Myles Adams

The 1-star tier notes:

You’ve made it this far—3,000 free words on your favorite NFL team—if you’re a free subscriber, I’ll ask again if you’d like to throw $5 at the Joe for today’s article:

You could easily make arguments for any of these players to be 2-star, and I could definitely push some of the 2-star guys down to the 1-star category. I expect virtually no pushback on Forsythe, while Tomlinson is a victim of being a 32-year-old guard who had little interest on the market despite being a semi-recent Pro Bowl pick. I think Myles Adams has gotten more mileage out of being a popular camp/preseason player than any recent Seahawk, but I’d be shocked if he has another gear buried in him that’s going to be unearthed to the point of being a Jarran Reed replacement. This is his fourth year with Seattle and he’s only had 310 career snaps, he’s going to have a hard time getting the reps necessary to prove himself.

As I said, I could put other names down here to make it less lonely—Drake Thomas as one example—but maybe Thomas has better odds because as a linebacker he’s at a position that is totally up in the air; even practice squad’s Michael Barrett and Patrick O’Connell could be in the plans for this year.

Anyways, I accept that none of you will agree with 100% of what I’ve put here (I don’t even know that I agree with 100% of my own lists!), and that some of you will disagree with most of what I wrote today, but hopefully all of us can agree that it’s just as important for the Seahawks to know where they are now as it is for them to know where they are going next.