Noah Fant should definitely be on the trading block, but there's no hurry.
I like to think of Noah Fant as Arroyo insurance. Playing NFL tight end is really complicated, and Fant is the best receiver of the bunch (for now). That's going to be an even more important role now that DK is gone. If Arroyo needs time to get up to speed, and/or isn't 100% healthy, then Fant could be important to our offensive success early in the season. His trade value will only increase if he does well in KK's system, and there may be an opportunity before the trade deadline to maximize his return.
The downside is that keeping Fant into week 1 means that someone else doesn't make the roster. I think that we will keep four TEs (Fant, Barner, Arroyo & Saubert) and sacrifice depth elsewhere; my guess would be WR (only keep 5).
I am tentatively attending camp (not as a participant, but if coach woulda put me in the fourth quarter, we’d have been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind. You better believe things had been different. I’d have gone pro in a heartbeat. I’d be making millions of dollars and living in a big ol’ mansion somewhere, soaking it up in a hot tub with my soul mate) on the 28th and 10th. I have not been before, but would be happy to meet up with people and discus what we are seeing, what we are excited about, and what worries us. My wife might go, but she cares zero about football, so it might be nice to be able to talk about what's going on with someone else who is a fan.
Great idea. I will likely only go to one on Aug. 2, but if it is so great I want to do it again, I'll keep that in mind. I hope you find some takers. Should be fun and could lead to whole new universes.
Agree with your list except on 2, I would rank Horton as neutral. As a fifth rounder (i think?) I see him taking over for MVS next year. The job is his to lose in my humble opinion.
Also, for some reason, I love Ricky White and hope he excels. I think i root for him because of his special teams achievements. 4 blocked punts isn't something to overlook. Would like to see hiw he does returning Kickoffs.
I think the whole guaranteed second round contracts has been blown out of proportion pretty badly by the media. The NFL has been guaranteeing portions of 2nd round contracts for a few years & 100% guaranteed was inevitable. Last year, the top 5 picks of the round all were over 90% guaranteed. This is nothing new.
What really mucked up this year was Tyler Shough in New Orleans. He is the 40th pick & wants 100% guarantee since he is in the drivers seat to start at QB. Everyone else was waiting to see where that goes as it would have set the 100% floor at pick #40. When Alfred Collins signed at #42 for about 89% guaranteed, that kind of set the market at around 10% over last year & bypassed Shough. since pick #35 was already at 92% from last year, 100% makes sense. 2nd rounders are all falling into line this morning now that the market has been set. I kind of expect Arroyo to come in somewhere around 80% guaranteed at #50.
Picking 'failures' for rookies at this point is bad mojo.
There is a chance this is the most impactful draft since 2012. I think Zabel, Emmanwori, and Arroyo will be impact players in year 1. I think Horton will be a pleasant surprise. Milroe will likely be less impactful, but if they do create packages for him to run, he will still have an impact, while he continues to develop behind the scenes. And there is a chance that some of the others will find ways to get on the field, whether on special teams (White, Cabeldue) or due to injury.
Note, they didn't put Horton on either the non-football injury list or the PUP, so it appears, for now at least, he's good to go for the start of camp. That is great news.
There is some room for "face-saving" or compromise here. JS could offer conditional guarantees that protect the team from extreme circumstances like Judkins' and then spin it as "fully guaranteed". It would be guaranteed for everything except for personal conduct issues or non-football injuries prior to camp, for example. Guarantees could be triggered by playing time or practice milestones to get them into camp quicker. They could guarantee a portion of the contract in direct proportion to how far into the 2nd rd each was selected. E.g. Arroyo was overall pick 50 (18th out of 32 2nd rd picks) so he could have 44% (18:32) of his contract guaranteed to create a sliding scale out of the 2nd rd. Emmanwori, being the 3rd pick in the 2nd rd could have 92.7% of his contract guaranteed. These proportions could be measures of money or time. Another way of doing it this way could be tiers or groups of picks (top ¼, middle 2-¼s, and bottom ¼ of the round).
What JS CAN'T do is consult with the other owners or league office to get a gameplan together of what precedent to set..
I don't really know that much about it, but I was under the impression that in almost every contract there is a caveat in there related to personal conduct, or conduct detrimental to the team, that overrides any 'guarantees'. I may be wrong (again).
I wouldn't call them "holdouts" until they have actually held out of something. We don't know the process, and Emmanwori and Arroyo probably aren't in the PNW right now.
Right, so it is entirely reasonable that they could be waiting until he reports to training camp to sign his contract. That’s not a holdout in my book. I imagine Emmanwori is the same.
There is not much time for a young superior athlete to learn what it will take to simply play at the next level in the NFL, much less so if the goal is to excel. That our rookies would choose to miss any time for any reason is unthinkable. At best, the Team will lose money budgeted to awarding the guys who make it onto the roster. These financial practises are there for solid reasons, which their own Player's Association (Union) agreed to and understands.
I see both sides of the argument. For some of these players, this might be the only payday they ever get like this, so they want to set themselves and their families up as well as they possibly can. We've talked about how important coaching and circumstances are to player development and success, and add to the the Teams have picked them for a reason.......so should be willing to stick their necks out with their check books as well.
The reality is they'll all end up getting most of it guaranteed anyway. Emmanwori got 100%, so good for him. Arroyo will likely be close to 90%. A lot of waiting and debating for relatively small amounts of money IMO. I'd be surprised if they are both not in the building on Tuesday next week and ready to rock and roll.
Consider me enlightened, Chris. Plus, it's a changing environment, as we are seeing with college players getting rewarded for their efforts. New eyes. Thnx.
Thanks for taking time to dive into SSJ community Q's...super cool. I very much agree with your take on who will, and who won't, out-play their draft position. Your logic behind your decisions seems valid. I'm less optimistic on Emmanwori, and Mills looks like he's at a disadvantage from the get go. I would love to see all the O line picks hit. Can you imagine if Zabel, Cabledue, and Richman all end up solid players...that would be awesome. Also really hoping the Milroe experiment pans out well, investment wise. WR in the late rounds don't usually make a ton of noise so i get it, but I really like Ricky White III's game. Not sure who he reminds me of, but he's gonna be one I'm keeping an eye on. Really digging Arroyo, he looks great on college tape...hope he keeps going. Zabel, Arroyo, and Milroe all were top in AWS NGS athleticism listing so in theory, if the output ever matches the athletic potential, look out other 31 teams. Again, I cannot understate this...I am so jacked for this year's practices and preseason. Cheers!
I'm really hoping Emmanwori is a plus, as I bought his jersey. But if he is a miss, I can hang it next to my Danny Fortson Bearcats jersey (which I love) and my signed Robert Swift Sonics jersey (which I was ended up with through circumstance, but did not pay for).
both players and GMs are getting a lot of kibitzing from important 'players', so no one is moving yet, other than we all agree that the Cleveland and Arizona GMs and owners are idiots.
However, when we boil it down, given that we have just looked at the analysis that about 1/4 of all 2nd-round draftees don't play 4 years in the NFL, this holdout is for the 1/4 washout players and their agents. The rest are going to get paid one way or the other anyway.
The only reason for teams to aquiesce (sp?) and risk a guaranteed contract would be because they think their 2nd-rounder is a steal that will turn their fortunes and they can't wait to get him on the field.
The other reason to set the precedent of guaranteeing 2nd-round contracts is if you have the mentality of a perennial loser and know that you'll always be picking at the beginning of the round, where you're less likely to choose washouts. (But you're still Cleveland and Arizona, so no guarantees.) Thereby setting up teams drafting late to be more likely to have guaranteed contracts for washouts.
There's just no win in it for teams and there's no win in it for the game to have less to spend on performers.
I don't expect the Seahawks to budge on this because it's bad business.
Conversely, I would love to see a study done on performance of hold-outs vs. the rest of their careers.
My probably biased opinion is that hold-outs generally have poor years or poor starts to years when they hold out.
On some level, I hear a lack of confidence when players start worrying about getting hurt and their contract.
Further, as pointed out a month or 2 ago by SSJ, success probability for rookies drops precipitously if they miss their first training camp.
In the long run, I think that the players are risking their careers holding out for the guys that won't be with them in a few years anyway.
I'm with SSJ in that I think that they will all sign.
I would like to meet other fans from here, so if at all practical I will try to do the Aug. 2 practice, but I am too old to promise anything. I might not feel up to it.
As to your article and questions: I will not agree to the terms of this deal. More than half are going to either be successes or neutral. They could all end up neutral without any successes, but I think Horton will exceed his draft position, and I expect most of these draft picks will either be successes or neutral. I think Arroyo will exceed his draft position, and so will Cabledue, and Marinez. So that's 4 I feel strongly about. Zabel just has to match his draft position, which according to your rules would not be "success" but neutral, and would make me very happy about drafting him.
The only likely failure will be, IMO, Richman. And, heck, even neutral for a 7th round draft choice would not make the 53, but get stashed on the practice squad.
I also stand my ground firm against the principles of tyranny displayed through the terms of thIs 50 above/50 below -1 exercise! I am too cozy in my belief they will end up a majority success and you can't make me choose... yet. Vivé le Pitell!
From downtown it’s easy, the light rail has a stadium stop and it’s easy to get to. There’s plenty of places to eat downtown where we can meet. Let me know if you decide to go.
For the tickets I started from the Seahawks website. I think this link gets you to the august 2nd fan fest link for tickets.
Thanks for the responses, SSJ. And I will be at the Aug 2nd fan fest intra squad practice at Lumen Field. If anyone else is going and wants to meet up beforehand, I’m down for that.
Noah Fant should definitely be on the trading block, but there's no hurry.
I like to think of Noah Fant as Arroyo insurance. Playing NFL tight end is really complicated, and Fant is the best receiver of the bunch (for now). That's going to be an even more important role now that DK is gone. If Arroyo needs time to get up to speed, and/or isn't 100% healthy, then Fant could be important to our offensive success early in the season. His trade value will only increase if he does well in KK's system, and there may be an opportunity before the trade deadline to maximize his return.
The downside is that keeping Fant into week 1 means that someone else doesn't make the roster. I think that we will keep four TEs (Fant, Barner, Arroyo & Saubert) and sacrifice depth elsewhere; my guess would be WR (only keep 5).
I am tentatively attending camp (not as a participant, but if coach woulda put me in the fourth quarter, we’d have been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind. You better believe things had been different. I’d have gone pro in a heartbeat. I’d be making millions of dollars and living in a big ol’ mansion somewhere, soaking it up in a hot tub with my soul mate) on the 28th and 10th. I have not been before, but would be happy to meet up with people and discus what we are seeing, what we are excited about, and what worries us. My wife might go, but she cares zero about football, so it might be nice to be able to talk about what's going on with someone else who is a fan.
Great idea. I will likely only go to one on Aug. 2, but if it is so great I want to do it again, I'll keep that in mind. I hope you find some takers. Should be fun and could lead to whole new universes.
If we trade Noah Fant, I would keep Saubert. If his run blocking is as good as being a 6th lineman, then he would be great for short yardage.
Agree with your list except on 2, I would rank Horton as neutral. As a fifth rounder (i think?) I see him taking over for MVS next year. The job is his to lose in my humble opinion.
Also, for some reason, I love Ricky White and hope he excels. I think i root for him because of his special teams achievements. 4 blocked punts isn't something to overlook. Would like to see hiw he does returning Kickoffs.
I think the whole guaranteed second round contracts has been blown out of proportion pretty badly by the media. The NFL has been guaranteeing portions of 2nd round contracts for a few years & 100% guaranteed was inevitable. Last year, the top 5 picks of the round all were over 90% guaranteed. This is nothing new.
What really mucked up this year was Tyler Shough in New Orleans. He is the 40th pick & wants 100% guarantee since he is in the drivers seat to start at QB. Everyone else was waiting to see where that goes as it would have set the 100% floor at pick #40. When Alfred Collins signed at #42 for about 89% guaranteed, that kind of set the market at around 10% over last year & bypassed Shough. since pick #35 was already at 92% from last year, 100% makes sense. 2nd rounders are all falling into line this morning now that the market has been set. I kind of expect Arroyo to come in somewhere around 80% guaranteed at #50.
Picking 'failures' for rookies at this point is bad mojo.
There is a chance this is the most impactful draft since 2012. I think Zabel, Emmanwori, and Arroyo will be impact players in year 1. I think Horton will be a pleasant surprise. Milroe will likely be less impactful, but if they do create packages for him to run, he will still have an impact, while he continues to develop behind the scenes. And there is a chance that some of the others will find ways to get on the field, whether on special teams (White, Cabeldue) or due to injury.
Note, they didn't put Horton on either the non-football injury list or the PUP, so it appears, for now at least, he's good to go for the start of camp. That is great news.
Re: guaranteed contracts for 2nd rd...
There is some room for "face-saving" or compromise here. JS could offer conditional guarantees that protect the team from extreme circumstances like Judkins' and then spin it as "fully guaranteed". It would be guaranteed for everything except for personal conduct issues or non-football injuries prior to camp, for example. Guarantees could be triggered by playing time or practice milestones to get them into camp quicker. They could guarantee a portion of the contract in direct proportion to how far into the 2nd rd each was selected. E.g. Arroyo was overall pick 50 (18th out of 32 2nd rd picks) so he could have 44% (18:32) of his contract guaranteed to create a sliding scale out of the 2nd rd. Emmanwori, being the 3rd pick in the 2nd rd could have 92.7% of his contract guaranteed. These proportions could be measures of money or time. Another way of doing it this way could be tiers or groups of picks (top ¼, middle 2-¼s, and bottom ¼ of the round).
What JS CAN'T do is consult with the other owners or league office to get a gameplan together of what precedent to set..
aka collusion.
I don't really know that much about it, but I was under the impression that in almost every contract there is a caveat in there related to personal conduct, or conduct detrimental to the team, that overrides any 'guarantees'. I may be wrong (again).
I deal with contracts frequently, but nothing like these kinds, so I certainly am not claiming to know anything more than the average bear.
I wouldn't call them "holdouts" until they have actually held out of something. We don't know the process, and Emmanwori and Arroyo probably aren't in the PNW right now.
Arroyo is working out in Miami, I believe.
Right, so it is entirely reasonable that they could be waiting until he reports to training camp to sign his contract. That’s not a holdout in my book. I imagine Emmanwori is the same.
I read that he is in Miami, too
There is not much time for a young superior athlete to learn what it will take to simply play at the next level in the NFL, much less so if the goal is to excel. That our rookies would choose to miss any time for any reason is unthinkable. At best, the Team will lose money budgeted to awarding the guys who make it onto the roster. These financial practises are there for solid reasons, which their own Player's Association (Union) agreed to and understands.
I see both sides of the argument. For some of these players, this might be the only payday they ever get like this, so they want to set themselves and their families up as well as they possibly can. We've talked about how important coaching and circumstances are to player development and success, and add to the the Teams have picked them for a reason.......so should be willing to stick their necks out with their check books as well.
The reality is they'll all end up getting most of it guaranteed anyway. Emmanwori got 100%, so good for him. Arroyo will likely be close to 90%. A lot of waiting and debating for relatively small amounts of money IMO. I'd be surprised if they are both not in the building on Tuesday next week and ready to rock and roll.
Consider me enlightened, Chris. Plus, it's a changing environment, as we are seeing with college players getting rewarded for their efforts. New eyes. Thnx.
Thanks for taking time to dive into SSJ community Q's...super cool. I very much agree with your take on who will, and who won't, out-play their draft position. Your logic behind your decisions seems valid. I'm less optimistic on Emmanwori, and Mills looks like he's at a disadvantage from the get go. I would love to see all the O line picks hit. Can you imagine if Zabel, Cabledue, and Richman all end up solid players...that would be awesome. Also really hoping the Milroe experiment pans out well, investment wise. WR in the late rounds don't usually make a ton of noise so i get it, but I really like Ricky White III's game. Not sure who he reminds me of, but he's gonna be one I'm keeping an eye on. Really digging Arroyo, he looks great on college tape...hope he keeps going. Zabel, Arroyo, and Milroe all were top in AWS NGS athleticism listing so in theory, if the output ever matches the athletic potential, look out other 31 teams. Again, I cannot understate this...I am so jacked for this year's practices and preseason. Cheers!
I'm really hoping Emmanwori is a plus, as I bought his jersey. But if he is a miss, I can hang it next to my Danny Fortson Bearcats jersey (which I love) and my signed Robert Swift Sonics jersey (which I was ended up with through circumstance, but did not pay for).
In all fairness, Fortson was a great Bearcat, even if not a good pro.
w/r/t 2nd round hold-outs....
both players and GMs are getting a lot of kibitzing from important 'players', so no one is moving yet, other than we all agree that the Cleveland and Arizona GMs and owners are idiots.
However, when we boil it down, given that we have just looked at the analysis that about 1/4 of all 2nd-round draftees don't play 4 years in the NFL, this holdout is for the 1/4 washout players and their agents. The rest are going to get paid one way or the other anyway.
The only reason for teams to aquiesce (sp?) and risk a guaranteed contract would be because they think their 2nd-rounder is a steal that will turn their fortunes and they can't wait to get him on the field.
The other reason to set the precedent of guaranteeing 2nd-round contracts is if you have the mentality of a perennial loser and know that you'll always be picking at the beginning of the round, where you're less likely to choose washouts. (But you're still Cleveland and Arizona, so no guarantees.) Thereby setting up teams drafting late to be more likely to have guaranteed contracts for washouts.
There's just no win in it for teams and there's no win in it for the game to have less to spend on performers.
I don't expect the Seahawks to budge on this because it's bad business.
Conversely, I would love to see a study done on performance of hold-outs vs. the rest of their careers.
My probably biased opinion is that hold-outs generally have poor years or poor starts to years when they hold out.
On some level, I hear a lack of confidence when players start worrying about getting hurt and their contract.
Further, as pointed out a month or 2 ago by SSJ, success probability for rookies drops precipitously if they miss their first training camp.
In the long run, I think that the players are risking their careers holding out for the guys that won't be with them in a few years anyway.
I'm with SSJ in that I think that they will all sign.
And yet JS just gave Emmanwori a fully guaranteed contract.
"(But you're still Cleveland and Arizona, so no guarantees.)"
Ohh, that's Cold, John! ... sometimes the truth stings.
I would like to meet other fans from here, so if at all practical I will try to do the Aug. 2 practice, but I am too old to promise anything. I might not feel up to it.
As to your article and questions: I will not agree to the terms of this deal. More than half are going to either be successes or neutral. They could all end up neutral without any successes, but I think Horton will exceed his draft position, and I expect most of these draft picks will either be successes or neutral. I think Arroyo will exceed his draft position, and so will Cabledue, and Marinez. So that's 4 I feel strongly about. Zabel just has to match his draft position, which according to your rules would not be "success" but neutral, and would make me very happy about drafting him.
The only likely failure will be, IMO, Richman. And, heck, even neutral for a 7th round draft choice would not make the 53, but get stashed on the practice squad.
I also stand my ground firm against the principles of tyranny displayed through the terms of thIs 50 above/50 below -1 exercise! I am too cozy in my belief they will end up a majority success and you can't make me choose... yet. Vivé le Pitell!
I will definitely be going to the Aug 2nd event. If you feel up to it, let me know and we can meet up beforehand the event in downtown.
Can you explain the process, if you know, on how to get tickets, buses, etc? I can get downtown pretty easily, is that where the bus will leave from?
From downtown it’s easy, the light rail has a stadium stop and it’s easy to get to. There’s plenty of places to eat downtown where we can meet. Let me know if you decide to go.
For the tickets I started from the Seahawks website. I think this link gets you to the august 2nd fan fest link for tickets.
https://www.seahawks.com/training-camp/
Thanks for the responses, SSJ. And I will be at the Aug 2nd fan fest intra squad practice at Lumen Field. If anyone else is going and wants to meet up beforehand, I’m down for that.