Seahawks updated playoff odds: 1 seed, NFC West, rooting guide
What needs to happen for the Seahawks in Week 17?
Following the 49ers win over the Colts on Monday, the Seattle Seahawks face increased pressure to win both of their remaining two regular season games in order to secure the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Per ESPN Analytics, the Seahawks have a 48.9% chance to win the NFC West and a 44.6% chance to earn the number one seed.
The 49ers have the second-best odds in both categories at 31.8% to win the NFC West and 29.6% to earn the one seed.
The Seahawks can no longer clinch the number one seed by beating the Panthers this week unless there is a tie in the other big NFC game of Week 17 and a major upset in Atlanta.
The Seahawks can still get the one seed if they lose to Carolina, but it would necessitate beating the 49ers in Week 18 AND a loss by both the Bears and the Rams.
Seattle can’t count on all of those things happening, so the Seahawks must treat this week’s game against the Carolina Panthers as a playoff game.
The Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites in Carolina, indicating a lack of belief in the Panthers despite their ability to hang tight over the past couple of months and lead the NFC South with wins over the Packers, Rams, and Bucs along the way. Teams typically get about 3 points just for being the home team so that means that bettors really don’t believe in the Panthers against Seattle.
We hope that’s true — the Seahawks are playing their best football in a decade — but the Rams had at least this much confidence when they lost in Carolina three weeks ago as 10-point favorites.
If the Seahawks do not win in Carolina on Sunday, they could be right back in Carolina in two weeks as a road wild card team.
The 49ers and Bears are motivated to win out
Brock Purdy threw 5 touchdowns en route to a 48-27 rout of the Colts on Monday. Purdy has now thrown 9 touchdowns/0 interceptions in San Francisco’s last three games and the 49ers have won five in a row with 172 points in that span, second-most in the NFL behind the Rams.
(The Seahawks have also won 5 in a row and are 5th in points.)
Did the NFL know what they were doing when they stuffed the league’s three best teams into one four-team division???
The 49ers now have higher odds than the Rams to win the NFC West, just six weeks after they lost to L.A. 42-26 and had two more losses than them.
The Seahawks and 49ers both “control their destiny” to earn the number one seed but that necessitates both teams winning their Week 17 games and while Carolina isn’t easy, San Francisco’s should be slightly more difficult.
The 49ers won’t have to go on the road for the rest of the season and playoffs if they win their next two games, even if they go to the Super Bowl because they are Super Bowl hosts this year.
49ers vs. Bears
The winner of next week’s game between the 49ers and Bears remains alive for the number one seed. There is no scenario in which the 49ers lose next week but earn the number one seed. This is not the same for the Seahawks, as they can lose next week and still be the number one seed if they win in Week 18, but they would also need the Rams to suffer an unlikely upset loss in the next two weeks.
Root for: Bears
It may seem obvious but in addition to just hating the 49ers, there is a lot more incentive to having the Bears win next week than San Francisco.
In fact, it’s possible that if the Bears beat the 49ers in Week 17 that the Niners would then rest their starters against in Week 18. Why? If San Francisco is eliminated from NFC West title contention (Niners lose, Seahawks win) that the 49ers would see no point in trying to beat Seattle just for a better wild card slot.
This would give the Seahawks a much easier path to a 14-3 record and the number one seed in the NFC. It’s hard to believe that the 49ers would just hand it to them, but San Francisco has seen their playoff run end several times under Kyle Shanahan because of injuries. If they are locked into a wild card position going into Week 18, they almost have to ease up against Seattle.
However, a Bears win also does keep Chicago alive for the number one seed.
Even if the Seahawks beat the Panthers and the Bears beat the 49ers, Seattle could still lose the number one seed AND the NFC West division title:
Rams would need to win out
Bears would need to beat the Lions in Week 18
Seahawks would need to lose to the 49ers
Rams path
L.A. plays the Falcons and Cardinals in the next two weeks, both games that the Rams will be heavily favored in. I can’t imagine that the Rams would slow down in Week 18 unless they lose in Week 17. The only hope there is that Atlanta will be heavily motivated to win the rest of their games so that Raheem Morris (a longtime coach under/with Sean McVay) can keep his job and Kirk Cousins can convince a team to let him be their starter in 2026.
So a Falcons upset is welcome, but not likely.
Bears path
The Bears play the Lions in Week 18 and although Detroit hasn’t been eliminated from the playoffs, they’re hanging on by a thread: 6.4%. The Lions need to beat the Vikings in Week 17 and they need the Packers to lose their last two (Ravens, Vikings).
It’s not out of the question that Baltimore could beat the Packers in Week 17 and the Lions could beat the Vikings (in fact that seems a little more likely than not likely), meaning that Detroit brings their all against the Bears in Week 18…although with Dan Campbell, that would be the case even if the Lions are eliminated from playoff contention first.
Seahawks path
So what’s the summary of all this?
The Seahawks want to beat the Panthers, if for no other reason than it will eliminate the loser of 49ers-Bears from 1-seed contention
If the Seahawks beat the Panthers, a miraculous Bears-49ers tie + a Rams loss to Falcons would give them the 1-seed in Week 17
Root for the Bears to beat the 49ers, it might cause San Francisco to rest their starters in Week 18 + Chicago is going to have a fight on their hands in Week 18 against the Lions
The Seahawks are still 50/50 to win the division, but the 49ers now see a clear path to the 1-seed if they win their last 2 games
The Rams are not eliminated from the 1-seed, so root for them to lose to the Falcons this week so that they are eliminated
The Seahawks are roughly 45% to earn the 1-seed, followed by 49ers (30%), and Bears&Rams (both 13%)
That is where the NFC’s race to the 1-seed and the winner of the NFC West stand at the conclusion of Week 16. Seattle’s win over the Rams on Thursday vaulted them to the front of the line, but that’s exactly where L.A. was five days ago and it can change as quickly for the Seahawks as it did for their rivals.
Beat the Panthers and good things will follow. Lose and the Seahawks will give up their control.
Hopefully the mini bye week will put us in a good position to be fully prepared to play in Carolina. Also, we’ve had plenty of practice this year playing 10am games. We haven’t lost one in a long time. Knock on wood!
This is what I’ve been saying since last week. Keep an eye on each game as it occurs. Enough talking about SB wins already. Let’s just get through these last 2 games. They’re certainly not gimme’s. Better still, let’s just concentrate on the next one and take it from there.