My wife and I took at family to Punta Cana this week. 27 Celsius here. -15 C at home. There is a Sports bar on the resort so I assume the game will be on there. Will rock my Seahawks gear all day tomorrow to try to send good vibes. Tons of Canadians here so I expect to see a few more Seattle fans. I think the Seahawks will find a way tomorrow. 27-17. The rams will get yards but not enough TD’s.
The rested character of the Seahawks highlights an underrated aspect of this coaching staff. MM is very careful of his players, often having them take an extra week of recovery rather hurrying them back at 75% effectiveness. For comparison look at how Shanahan, and his dad, work their player to the breaking point. Last week CMC looked gassed while K9 had perhaps his best game as a pro. BTW, I loved the cycling analogy used by another reader, Spot On!
The way JS/MM use the entire 70 man roster is masterful. They handpick weekly practice squad promotions to fit against the opponent, unless strictly dictated by injury, use nearly everyone at least once, and rotate RB and DL constantly to keep legs fresh. Other teams should be taking notes, but I hope they aren't. They are building a sustainable system because it's focused on TEAM, not one or two superstars surrounded by scrubs.
One last thing. If the weather divas are to be believed, we're due for somewhere between 1-3 feet of snow, possibly with a patina of ice this weekend. Which means there's a good chance I'll be spending Sunday without power, on the tractor trying to clear our driveway. We'll be fine, we're ready for it. Ish. Point is, I'm counting on y'all to take care of business in Seattle. And if I'm not on the chat, or in the comments for a few days....begaw!
Hard to Admit things we were wrong about...kudos. After doing some traveling lately I've heard some differing views on the remaining playoff teams. The distilled point is that Seattle looks the best but it's anyone's game. But the strange part was a ton of people thought Seattle could potentially whip the rams...I had not thought about it but from outsiders view Seattle looks petty dominate. No one was expecting LA to whoop Seattle, they kept it very conservative...IE the rams win but it'll be close. There were many Seattle supporter types that also said it would be close...but there were a lot of people that said Seattle would ice the rams and work them over. There were a lot of people that also said Walker needed more carries to be effective and they expect the running game to improve. I get it they see highlights and stats and many through a fantasy lense. But the Seahawks are the team no one wants to play. I was surprised by the lack of people thinking am AFC would even compete for the Lombardi. It was like this is the super bowl.
That's one of the reasons you are so cool: you freely admit when you are on the wrong side of an issue. But your subscribers pay attention and they know that you are right far more than not. And you also offer cogent and detailed reasons for your analysis. Honestly this season has been so much fun, going from pie-in-the-sky hopes through a slow but sure build to the incredible success the Hawks have enjoyed. And dude, you have been the indefatigable spirit guide the whole way. I know these next games are monumental, but no matter what happens going forward, everyone should take a moment to appreciate the journey to this point. and for me your made it so much better.
I watched the "Film Watchers" video and it seemed pretty biased towards favoring the Rams while trying give the impression of neutrality (he did have an old Kurt Warner Rams jersey hanging behind him). He spent half the video on Darnold's flaws and barely mentioned our running game, and the other half on how easily the Rams ran the ball from 13 personnel and opened up holes in our zones for Puka. He said the Seahawks defense was great, but only showed film of them getting beat by Kyren Williams and Puka Nakua. He included just enough film of good Seahawks plays to make it seem impartial, but it felt contrived to me.
Thanks for answering my two questions Ken. Right guard is the position I had tabbed as well. As we have discussed previously the edge, WR, T, QB, CB are the high value positions. With the limited picks we have on the books this upcoming draft we will most likely get one really good player. Do we do another guard in the first or do we take a first round edge or WR???? Lots of thing get to transpire, Kupp staying or going, who’s actually available when we draft etc…and who we resign. Was just curious on your opinion
And we have fewer picks this year due to prior trades. So a trade down makes sense other than maybe 5th year option. But maybe a future draft analysis article for you. How many last 4 first rounders are signed with team 5th year option??? Dropping and acquiring an extra pick, possibly for more stabs at an Edge or replacement WR is more an JS thought.
If somebody wants a QB at 32, maybe there's a trade down. Otherwise I think we can get a decent CB or Edge there, from the rankings I've been watching sporadically. Looks like we can get IOL on day two, though there seem to be a few centers in that range, and I'd hate to move Sundell, both because he's just spent a year learning the position and because he and Zabel finish each other's sentences, both on and off-field.
I’ve seen CB mocked already. Why I noted both are reduced number of picks and the 5th year option. Which is more important. I’m guessing it depends on what JS does in the extension mold. Saw for example that Woolen as really improved over these last few weeks from coaching.
Yeah. Budget's going to be a challenge. Still not sure I extend Walker, maybe because SSJ did such a fine job of persuading me it was a bad investment. Which is counterbalanced by the dearth of top-100 RBs in the draft, so...do we believe in Charbs, Kenny Mac, and/or Holani?
Only slightly related, but I did some quick math this morning regarding Seahawks Rush Off and Rams Rush Def:
Season Totals:
Rams D - 4.3 Y/A allowed (18th rank)
Seahawks O - 4.1 Y/A gained (24th rank)
Since Week 16:
Rams D - 4 games played, 541yds, 109 carries = 4.96 Y/A allowed (28th rank compared to rest of league season values)
Seahawks O - 3 games played, 518yds, 108 carries = 4.79 Y/A gained (4th rank compared to rest of league season values)
Now you could say the Seahawks had easy matchups of playing a bad 49ers defense. Well, that same defense gave up 110 rush yards (5 Y/A) to the Bears while the Rams gave up 160 rush yards (4.3 Y/A).
Week 16 Game, Hawks v. Rams:
Seahawks ran for 171 yards on 25 carries = 6.84 Y/A. Even if you take out Ken's 55 yard TD, it comes out to 4.83 Y/A.
I think the Seahawks offense is a tough matchup for the Rams for the same reason the Panthers offense was a difficult matchup. The Hawks are red hot running the ball, and the Rams are ice cold stopping the run. At best, the Rams are an average unit against the run.
Run the Ball. Stop the Run. Play Turnover Free Football.
Speaking of the offensive line and Jimmy Graham...
I remember the very deep pit in my stomach the day the Seahawks traded away Max Unger for a pass-catching tight end who could barely block. I did not feel good about the trade at all.
I*think* my hunch was proven right by history: iirc that was the beginning of the end of the Seahawks having a decent O-line--for a full DECADE (or so)!
How good is the current Seahawks O-line in the context of the last decade? How does it compare to the group that took the Hawks to 2 Super Bowls a decade ago?
Right with you. One of the worse moves made by Carroll. While we’ve heard JS discounting IOL to me it came more from PC. He has never respected C or IOL. LT yes, had them big guys at USC but low level for top C. Throw anyone in there. They make the trade and yes non blocking TE still was then under utilized. Coach K though is using TEs and love it. That pass to AJ against the Rams. Pure perfection
The O-Line Committee clip is really good. I watched the whole thing this morning and they break down a series of plays. Cool to see them highlight Bradford a couple of times, once talking about how hard of a block it was to execute. They are REALLY high on Zabel and Sundel.
Yeah. They’re a little bit “basic” in terms of talking ball in general, but they know their shit and especially OL shit which you don’t get anywhere else.
Have you ever watched stages of the Tour de France or other Grand Tours of bike racing? It seems like an individual sport, but it’s not. The best teams dominate. Yes, they get big sponsorships and pay the top racers big money, but the big names don’t win without great strategy. And the strategies are built on “domestiques”.
A domestique should almost never win a stage. He rides too hard early in the race in order to shield the team leader from the wind while positioning the team as needed against the opposition. It brings the leader to the front while saving his legs. One by one the domestiques fall off, sacrificing themselves for the team. At the end of the race the leader rides alone and competes for the win.
Charbonnet is the domestique of the running back room. Walker is the leader. The team has protected Walker’s legs all season long. He’s now in position to finish strong. He got an extra day of rest before his next battle. Win, and there’s an extra week to recover. Charbonnet completed his task.
The team still needs to give Walker a breather now and then. There will be obvious passing downs when we need pass protection. Holani can definitely spell Walker here and there, but Walker can still handle a bigger workload than he has been getting. For pass protection Holani can do well, but Ouzts might do even better.
If the oline can continue to give Walker clean reads, the run game can keep rolling. I have no doubt that the TEs and WRs will continue to block downfield. Walker is set up perfectly for this moment.
Let’s appreciate the role that Charbs played, as well as the wisdom of the coaching staff. Their strategy fits a 19+ game season.
My issue with Bradford is this: he is heavy-footed, and can't move well, especially for a team running a wide-zone scheme. Lots of clips of him pulling, and not getting to the LB he is supposed to block, at all. If you did a cut-up of his bad plays, and compared it to bad-play cut-ups for Sundell and Zabel--first, there would be more Bradford plays, and second, the Bradford bad plays would be really, really bad. Serious whiffs. When he can latch on to somebody, he can knock him into next week. If we ran a power scheme, he'd be much better. But we don't. We need a RG with decent feet. That's why I remain puzzled by the inability of our past third round draft choice to break into the starting OL.
I keep thinking Bradford would be pretty good in a different system, with the Eagles or Ravens, say. But, again, much respect for how he's carried himself this year, and how he's fought.
Of course, there are times when the team runs power and needs to win in short yardage situations. I think that the team likes to have a stout player at right guard.
I’m impressed with his improvement this year. He’s not an A+ player, but he hasn’t been a liability recently. He’s not quick enough to recover from a mistake, but when he makes a good first move, he usually wins the rep.
I’ll think about improving next season. For now, I’m an AB supporter. 12 as one!
OT: I woke up in the middle of the night thinking about this coming game. My thoughts were concerns over the Rams trying to use sacks on Darnold to innocently aggravate his injury. I hope the Hawks follow last week's play and run the ball more than pass it. I also read that Mrs. Stafford is mad. I have my fingers crossed that she will be furious at the end of the game. Way OT: Is it true the NFL fined Lenoir $500K for the headbutt he delivered to JSN last weekend?
The $500K fine thing was from one of the wack job websites that can't be trusted as far as you can throw them. Any web page with a banner that says "Breaking News" is completely fraudulent.
My wife and I took at family to Punta Cana this week. 27 Celsius here. -15 C at home. There is a Sports bar on the resort so I assume the game will be on there. Will rock my Seahawks gear all day tomorrow to try to send good vibes. Tons of Canadians here so I expect to see a few more Seattle fans. I think the Seahawks will find a way tomorrow. 27-17. The rams will get yards but not enough TD’s.
The rested character of the Seahawks highlights an underrated aspect of this coaching staff. MM is very careful of his players, often having them take an extra week of recovery rather hurrying them back at 75% effectiveness. For comparison look at how Shanahan, and his dad, work their player to the breaking point. Last week CMC looked gassed while K9 had perhaps his best game as a pro. BTW, I loved the cycling analogy used by another reader, Spot On!
The way JS/MM use the entire 70 man roster is masterful. They handpick weekly practice squad promotions to fit against the opponent, unless strictly dictated by injury, use nearly everyone at least once, and rotate RB and DL constantly to keep legs fresh. Other teams should be taking notes, but I hope they aren't. They are building a sustainable system because it's focused on TEAM, not one or two superstars surrounded by scrubs.
Jon Gruden previews Rams-Seahawks. You better watch it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pVxOWeF9W4
One last thing. If the weather divas are to be believed, we're due for somewhere between 1-3 feet of snow, possibly with a patina of ice this weekend. Which means there's a good chance I'll be spending Sunday without power, on the tractor trying to clear our driveway. We'll be fine, we're ready for it. Ish. Point is, I'm counting on y'all to take care of business in Seattle. And if I'm not on the chat, or in the comments for a few days....begaw!
stay safe and warm.
Thanks. We've got plenty of wood, aged and split. (In theory!)
Hard to Admit things we were wrong about...kudos. After doing some traveling lately I've heard some differing views on the remaining playoff teams. The distilled point is that Seattle looks the best but it's anyone's game. But the strange part was a ton of people thought Seattle could potentially whip the rams...I had not thought about it but from outsiders view Seattle looks petty dominate. No one was expecting LA to whoop Seattle, they kept it very conservative...IE the rams win but it'll be close. There were many Seattle supporter types that also said it would be close...but there were a lot of people that said Seattle would ice the rams and work them over. There were a lot of people that also said Walker needed more carries to be effective and they expect the running game to improve. I get it they see highlights and stats and many through a fantasy lense. But the Seahawks are the team no one wants to play. I was surprised by the lack of people thinking am AFC would even compete for the Lombardi. It was like this is the super bowl.
That's one of the reasons you are so cool: you freely admit when you are on the wrong side of an issue. But your subscribers pay attention and they know that you are right far more than not. And you also offer cogent and detailed reasons for your analysis. Honestly this season has been so much fun, going from pie-in-the-sky hopes through a slow but sure build to the incredible success the Hawks have enjoyed. And dude, you have been the indefatigable spirit guide the whole way. I know these next games are monumental, but no matter what happens going forward, everyone should take a moment to appreciate the journey to this point. and for me your made it so much better.
I watched the "Film Watchers" video and it seemed pretty biased towards favoring the Rams while trying give the impression of neutrality (he did have an old Kurt Warner Rams jersey hanging behind him). He spent half the video on Darnold's flaws and barely mentioned our running game, and the other half on how easily the Rams ran the ball from 13 personnel and opened up holes in our zones for Puka. He said the Seahawks defense was great, but only showed film of them getting beat by Kyren Williams and Puka Nakua. He included just enough film of good Seahawks plays to make it seem impartial, but it felt contrived to me.
With the over/under 46.5 my prediction is Seahawks 31 Rams 17, bet the over. This is with the Rams getting a garbage TD in the final minutes.
Thanks for answering my two questions Ken. Right guard is the position I had tabbed as well. As we have discussed previously the edge, WR, T, QB, CB are the high value positions. With the limited picks we have on the books this upcoming draft we will most likely get one really good player. Do we do another guard in the first or do we take a first round edge or WR???? Lots of thing get to transpire, Kupp staying or going, who’s actually available when we draft etc…and who we resign. Was just curious on your opinion
Pick 32 is a tricky one. Historically it seems Super Bowl teams really struggle finding great players in that range. Maybe trade it.
And we have fewer picks this year due to prior trades. So a trade down makes sense other than maybe 5th year option. But maybe a future draft analysis article for you. How many last 4 first rounders are signed with team 5th year option??? Dropping and acquiring an extra pick, possibly for more stabs at an Edge or replacement WR is more an JS thought.
If somebody wants a QB at 32, maybe there's a trade down. Otherwise I think we can get a decent CB or Edge there, from the rankings I've been watching sporadically. Looks like we can get IOL on day two, though there seem to be a few centers in that range, and I'd hate to move Sundell, both because he's just spent a year learning the position and because he and Zabel finish each other's sentences, both on and off-field.
I’ve seen CB mocked already. Why I noted both are reduced number of picks and the 5th year option. Which is more important. I’m guessing it depends on what JS does in the extension mold. Saw for example that Woolen as really improved over these last few weeks from coaching.
Yeah. Budget's going to be a challenge. Still not sure I extend Walker, maybe because SSJ did such a fine job of persuading me it was a bad investment. Which is counterbalanced by the dearth of top-100 RBs in the draft, so...do we believe in Charbs, Kenny Mac, and/or Holani?
Only slightly related, but I did some quick math this morning regarding Seahawks Rush Off and Rams Rush Def:
Season Totals:
Rams D - 4.3 Y/A allowed (18th rank)
Seahawks O - 4.1 Y/A gained (24th rank)
Since Week 16:
Rams D - 4 games played, 541yds, 109 carries = 4.96 Y/A allowed (28th rank compared to rest of league season values)
Seahawks O - 3 games played, 518yds, 108 carries = 4.79 Y/A gained (4th rank compared to rest of league season values)
Now you could say the Seahawks had easy matchups of playing a bad 49ers defense. Well, that same defense gave up 110 rush yards (5 Y/A) to the Bears while the Rams gave up 160 rush yards (4.3 Y/A).
Week 16 Game, Hawks v. Rams:
Seahawks ran for 171 yards on 25 carries = 6.84 Y/A. Even if you take out Ken's 55 yard TD, it comes out to 4.83 Y/A.
I think the Seahawks offense is a tough matchup for the Rams for the same reason the Panthers offense was a difficult matchup. The Hawks are red hot running the ball, and the Rams are ice cold stopping the run. At best, the Rams are an average unit against the run.
Run the Ball. Stop the Run. Play Turnover Free Football.
Go Hawks!
Good research. I think the underrated X factor could be Anthony Bradford. He’s just gonna beast over LA’s 280 lb defensive tackles in the run game.
Cool to see Holani activated. Now we know who will be RB2.
Speaking of the offensive line and Jimmy Graham...
I remember the very deep pit in my stomach the day the Seahawks traded away Max Unger for a pass-catching tight end who could barely block. I did not feel good about the trade at all.
I*think* my hunch was proven right by history: iirc that was the beginning of the end of the Seahawks having a decent O-line--for a full DECADE (or so)!
How good is the current Seahawks O-line in the context of the last decade? How does it compare to the group that took the Hawks to 2 Super Bowls a decade ago?
Right with you. One of the worse moves made by Carroll. While we’ve heard JS discounting IOL to me it came more from PC. He has never respected C or IOL. LT yes, had them big guys at USC but low level for top C. Throw anyone in there. They make the trade and yes non blocking TE still was then under utilized. Coach K though is using TEs and love it. That pass to AJ against the Rams. Pure perfection
It would be easiest to compare them by investments:
Cross is the first LT extended since D Brown
Zabel is the first first round G since Hutchinson
Lucas the first RT extended since… when? 2005?
Sundell nice. AB… well improved.
John Benton’s impact immeasurable.
I'm curious about that comparison too👍
The O-Line Committee clip is really good. I watched the whole thing this morning and they break down a series of plays. Cool to see them highlight Bradford a couple of times, once talking about how hard of a block it was to execute. They are REALLY high on Zabel and Sundel.
Yeah. They’re a little bit “basic” in terms of talking ball in general, but they know their shit and especially OL shit which you don’t get anywhere else.
Have you ever watched stages of the Tour de France or other Grand Tours of bike racing? It seems like an individual sport, but it’s not. The best teams dominate. Yes, they get big sponsorships and pay the top racers big money, but the big names don’t win without great strategy. And the strategies are built on “domestiques”.
A domestique should almost never win a stage. He rides too hard early in the race in order to shield the team leader from the wind while positioning the team as needed against the opposition. It brings the leader to the front while saving his legs. One by one the domestiques fall off, sacrificing themselves for the team. At the end of the race the leader rides alone and competes for the win.
Charbonnet is the domestique of the running back room. Walker is the leader. The team has protected Walker’s legs all season long. He’s now in position to finish strong. He got an extra day of rest before his next battle. Win, and there’s an extra week to recover. Charbonnet completed his task.
The team still needs to give Walker a breather now and then. There will be obvious passing downs when we need pass protection. Holani can definitely spell Walker here and there, but Walker can still handle a bigger workload than he has been getting. For pass protection Holani can do well, but Ouzts might do even better.
If the oline can continue to give Walker clean reads, the run game can keep rolling. I have no doubt that the TEs and WRs will continue to block downfield. Walker is set up perfectly for this moment.
Let’s appreciate the role that Charbs played, as well as the wisdom of the coaching staff. Their strategy fits a 19+ game season.
Great analogy! I didn’t know any of that.
I actually was gonna bring up an old article from September about how Seattle’s two back RB plan has a huge long term benefit for the playoffs.
My issue with Bradford is this: he is heavy-footed, and can't move well, especially for a team running a wide-zone scheme. Lots of clips of him pulling, and not getting to the LB he is supposed to block, at all. If you did a cut-up of his bad plays, and compared it to bad-play cut-ups for Sundell and Zabel--first, there would be more Bradford plays, and second, the Bradford bad plays would be really, really bad. Serious whiffs. When he can latch on to somebody, he can knock him into next week. If we ran a power scheme, he'd be much better. But we don't. We need a RG with decent feet. That's why I remain puzzled by the inability of our past third round draft choice to break into the starting OL.
I keep thinking Bradford would be pretty good in a different system, with the Eagles or Ravens, say. But, again, much respect for how he's carried himself this year, and how he's fought.
I’m sure AB won’t come to camp without some competition. I appreciate your insights.
Of course, there are times when the team runs power and needs to win in short yardage situations. I think that the team likes to have a stout player at right guard.
I’m impressed with his improvement this year. He’s not an A+ player, but he hasn’t been a liability recently. He’s not quick enough to recover from a mistake, but when he makes a good first move, he usually wins the rep.
I’ll think about improving next season. For now, I’m an AB supporter. 12 as one!
OT: I woke up in the middle of the night thinking about this coming game. My thoughts were concerns over the Rams trying to use sacks on Darnold to innocently aggravate his injury. I hope the Hawks follow last week's play and run the ball more than pass it. I also read that Mrs. Stafford is mad. I have my fingers crossed that she will be furious at the end of the game. Way OT: Is it true the NFL fined Lenoir $500K for the headbutt he delivered to JSN last weekend?
From search still waiting. Appears Wild Card fines announced early this week. Whiners FB fined $20k for leading with helmet vs Eagles.
The $500K fine thing was from one of the wack job websites that can't be trusted as far as you can throw them. Any web page with a banner that says "Breaking News" is completely fraudulent.
Thanks - I saw two postings and couldn't be sure that would ever happen. It seemed way too extreme.
I'm not aware of any fines handed out from the game as of now.