Stafford ache 🟰 Seahawks break❓

The Rams and Seahawks both made big decisions at QB this offseason, but did L.A. make a mistake by not making a change?

Even the most optimistic, carefree Rams fans have reason to be worried about Matthew Stafford’s health because despite never coming close to an MVP award in his career, he might mean more to his team than any other quarterback. And he’s 37. And he’s been dealing with back injuries since 2019.

The Rams are sitting Stafford out for at least the first two weeks of training camp and according to Sean McVay this precaution could mean that he basically does not practice at all until the week before L.A.’s Week 1 game against the Houston Texans in six weeks. Yes, Stafford’s experience means that practice doesn’t mean as much to him now as it might have 15 years ago.

But the Rams aren’t even a week into training camp and the head coach is already talking about how important that his 37-year-old quarterback with back soreness needs to work day-to-day for the sake of “the longevity of this season”, which according to McVay also means that the backups are getting valuable practice reps.

In an NFC West division that was decided by a 10-7/10-7 tiebreaker against the Seattle Seahawks, Stafford missing any games this season could mean the difference of playoffs or no playoffs.

Here’s what McVay said about Stafford’s injury as transcribed by Ian Rapoport:

Hypothetically, if Stafford starts the season on PUP and misses the first four games of the year, the Rams would be in grave danger of a bad start for the fourth time in a row.

• 2022: Started 2-3, spiraled to 5-12

• 2023: Started 2-3 and then 3-6 before rebounding

• 2024: Started 1-4 and rebounded

The Rams haven’t had a winning record after five games since 2021, Stafford’s first season with the team and to this day the only time that the quarterback has played particularly well in September or October.

We’ve made such a big deal about Tom Brady winning Super Bowls in his 40s and late-career success for Peyton Manning and Drew Brees that maybe we’ve overlooked how much worse quarterbacks like Stafford have become in their mid-30s. Stafford had 41 touchdown passes and won the Super Bowl in 2021, but he has thrown just 54 touchdowns over the past three seasons combined to go with 27 interceptions and a rather mundane 22-18 record as a starter.

Despite pedestrian numbers however, Stafford is still likely a far better starter than Jimmy Garoppolo and don’t even bother asking about Stetson Bennett. He’s been terrible in the preseason for two years, who knows what sort of undesirable records Bennett could break against a real defense.

A series of injuries to Stafford in 2022, first his elbow, then a concussion, then his spine, cost him eight games that season. By the time that the Rams shut him down they were already out of contention, so who knows if L.A. would have gone a different route if they were winning, but they were still one of the worst offenses in the NFL that year without a real Matthew Stafford:

• 32nd in yards

• 27th in points

• 29th in net yards per pass attempt

• 28th in passing touchdowns

The numbers would have been even worse if not a late jolt of energy by Baker Mayfield.

But Stafford’s history of back problems dates back to 2019, when “fractured bones” forced him out in Week 9 and cost him the rest of the season. Detroit’s points per game collapsed from 30ish to 17ish without Stafford that year.

Back pain caused Stafford to miss practice time in 2021, but he pushed through and had his best career season.

Then last October 6, back soreness caused Stafford to show up on the injury report after a loss to the Green Bay Packers. He again pushed through and actually played better ball for a little while after that, but these problems with his back aren’t unexpected and could persist throughout the entire 2025 season.

There are only two starting quarterbacks in the league who are older than Stafford, which are:

• Joe Flacco, if he even wins the job in Cleveland, which he might not

• Aaron Rodgers, who is basically a default starter in Pittsburgh because the Steelers had one of the worst succession plans to replacing a good quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) that we’ve EVER seen

At Stafford’s age, a sore back could be all it takes to miss a game or have a short-term IR stint that costs you four games. And the Rams without Matthew Stafford might as well be called one of the worst teams in the NFC.

Aside from his garbage time start against the Seahawks in 2024, Garoppolo’s last stint as a starter came with the Raiders in 2023 and it was a disaster. He threw an interception in all six starts for Las Vegas (total of nine) and he was benched on three separate occasions. This is not the same as Mayfield, an uber-talented former number one pick who had never been given a good team until he met McVay.

Remarkably, we have spent this much time talking about Garoppolo despite him only having three seasons in which he threw at least 300 passes and those were all with a San Francisco 49ers supporting cast that was too good to fail.

But McVay is addressing Stafford’s injury as an opportunity to get the offense comfortable with Garoppolo in practice, rather than him just being a necessary placeholder. Stafford may be ready for Week 1…

However, the message being sent by the Rams and McVay is that they’re not expecting a full 17-game season from him despite rebuffing trade offers in the offseason. Will L.A. have any regrets about the fact that they didn’t restart the clock on quarterback a year sooner?

According to OvertheCap.com, the Rams will have $41.9 million in dead money on the salary cap if Stafford is released or traded in 2026. That would only free $6.4 million in cap space.

The Raiders were very in on Stafford when the Rams were open to hearing trade offers, but L.A.’s decision to pay him instead of trade him is what left the door open for Seattle to get a third round pick and cap savings by sending Geno Smith to Pete Carroll instead. How seriously did McVay and GM Les Snead consider the possibility of trading Stafford and signing Sam Darnold, who would have been right at home in the Rams offense considering that Kevin O’Connell was Stafford’s OC in 2021?

We may never know the answer to that question, but it should only take a couple of months to find out which team made the better decisions at quarterback:

• Keep the 37-year-old, hold off on a succession plan

• Trade the 34-year-old, get younger, take a chance on a player with an uneven history as a starter

There’s one shortcut to knowing which team made the better choice and that would be if Jimmy Garoppolo is starting games for the Rams in September. At this point, it doesn’t seem too unlikely.

Seaside Joe 2337