Trading up from 50 to 34: What would it cost?

Should the Seahawks make a move up for TE Mason Taylor?

In the final part of this week’s answers to Super Joes Q&A (if you decide to join Super Joes, know that I will always attempt to answer every single member’s question), I’m going to start out by answering a question from me.

Seaside Joe: What would it cost the Seahawks to trade up to the top of the second round?

Ian Rapoport reported that the Titans are meeting with two intriguing day two prospects who could have interest to Seattle — G Donovan Jackson and S Xavier Watts — and it made me curious as to what it would cost John Schneider to trade up from 50 to 34 because it is far more likely that the Seahawks would target a guard on day two than day one.

Simply put: It shouldn’t be that expensive, although that depends on your defintion of “costly” when it comes to two and three-digit numbers.

In 2024, the Falcons traded up from 43 to 35 by giving the Cardinals back 3.79 while also getting 6.186 in return from Arizona. The Rams were apparently in a spicier pickle though, as they traded up from 52 to 39 for Braden Fiske and the Panthers demanded L.A.’s 2025 second rounder while also sending them back 5.155.

But the two trades are not crazy-different, since “this year’s third” is usually said to be the same value as “next year’s second”. In that way, we can say that moving up from the middle to the top of the second round will cost about one day two pick.

Fans seem less hesitant to trade a day two pick to move up on day two than one day one. (Reminder: Not too late to get involved in our community mock draft!)

Trading draft picks continues to be an exercise is valuation of abstract properties — I’m not trying to sound fancy, but teams are literally trading numbers and convicing themselves its “fair” for both sides — and for that reason there are too many variables to accurately predict what these deals will cost at the moment of negotiations: The Seahawks may call the Giants on day two and offer a third round pick in exchange for 2.34 and 6.183 and be rebuffed simply because New York just feels like saying no…

In which case, Schneider has to decide if that player he really wants before he goes to the Titans or somewhere else is worth next year’s second round pick. It all just depends on circumstances that are constantly in flux.

One such borderline first round prospect is LSU tight end Mason Taylor, someone who has also been invited to Seattle for a pre-draft visit.

In a year with two first round locks at the position, Penn State’s Tyler Warren and Michigan’s Colston Loveland, Taylor’s name has been floating around as one that could be called at the end of day one. The son of former Dolphins edge rusher Jason Taylor was compared to Dallas Goedert by Lance Zierlein and his pro day numbers (6’5, 246, 4.64 in the 40, 28 reps on the bench) would have easily made him a standout at the combine.

Taylor is far more a receiver than he is a blocker, but he’s also thought to be a ball of clay who is only starting to tap into his potential as a tight end. The reason we care about Taylor is not that he’s just a prospect and the Seahawks are a team — as is the case with all players in the draft — it’s that the team has let it be known that they are interested.

Just a hypothetical, but what if the Seahawks draft someone at 18 (for today’s purposes, it does not matter who as long as he’s not a tight end) and John Schneider gets the signal at the start of day two that Mason Taylor is not going to last until pick 50.

If Taylor is for-whatever-reason Schneider’s “gotta have him” prospect on day two, is it worth pick 2.50 and 3.92 to get picks 2.34 and 5.154 (coincidentally, a pick the Giants got from Seattle in the Leonard Williams trade)?

Some fans would scream, “NO!” Others would scream, “MASON TAYLOR!”

If you believe in the prospect, the cost is worth it. At some point, you gotta believe in somebody.

I’ll fire through the rest of last week’s questions by Super Joes. Join Super Joes by upgrading from free or upgrading from Regular Joes and you’ll get a prorated annual rate by signing up today. Then you will never miss the opportunity to ask a question or share your thoughts on the Seahawks…or just upgrade because you want to support the newsletter!

Chuck Turtleman: How good do you expect our defense to be? First few games, it was great albeit against some of the worst and/or rookie QBs. Then it looked like last year's -awful. But to round out the season, it looked really promising and against good teams. Then they could barely beat the Rams' backups in the finale. I realize the draft hasn't even happened yet, but what do you expect? Are we top 5 or were the highs a fluke?

I think you say it all, which is that opponents matter. Trying to caution fans to not get their hopes up after a 3-0 start against Bo Nix (debut), Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson was not an easy task — nor an enjoyable one (I want to believe too!) — and the team predictably came back to earth the following week against the Lions.

Were they better at the end of the season? In Week 17, they held the Bears to 3 points. But what is good about Caleb Williams (with an interim OC*) at this stage of his career other than name recognition? Chicago was one of the three worst offenses in the league last season, ranking 32nd in total yards, 31st in net yards per pass attempt, and 27th in yards per carry.

*Not just interim OC, but the Bears had long since fired Shane Waldron and interim OC Thomas Brown had to later become the interim HC, meaning that Chicago was on its third OC by Week 17

This sounds pretty negative so far, but in reality the Seahawks were significantly improved on defense in 2024, ranking top-20 in yards allowed for the first time since 2018.

At the time he was hired, a conservative/fair estimate for when Seattle would truly feel Mike Macdonald’s impact as a defensive coordinator was 2025. Implementation of a new scheme and getting players comfortable with it — both holdovers and new additions — should have bought the Seahawks at least 18 months before judging if the change was justifiable or not.

So just the fact that the Seahawks defense was sometimes good in 2024 is in itself a really positive feat, in my eyes. Consider the case of Mike McDaniel, a top offensive coordinator hired by the Dolphins in 2022:

Miami improved from 341 points scored (22nd) in 2021, to 397 points scored (11th) in McDaniel’s first season, to 496 points scored (2nd) in his second. Their fall from the top in 2024 should be largely attributed to Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries and the probability that he was not that great to begin with.

Reasons why I do expect the Seahawks to have one of the NFL’s top-ranked defenses in 2025:

• I think the 2025 opponents are kinda soft

• Year 2 for holdovers like Spoon, Big Cat, Love, Mafe, Hall, and Reed

• More recent additions like Ernest Jones get a full offseason to prepare

• Byron Murphy, Tyrice Knight enter year 2 of development

• Addition of DeMarcus Lawrence and maybe Nwosu is healthy?

I’m expecting the Seahawks defense to be one of the stingiest in the league next year. The question we should have is that if Seattle makes the playoffs, will they be just as stout against the Eagles, Moons, Rams, 49ers, Lions, Vikings…whoever else makes it?

Opponents matter.

Scott M: We are paying a lot for kicker and punter. Are there any realistic options out there to get cheaper?

As far as special teams, I think the Seahawks are in it for the long haul with Michael Dickson. He’s an elite punter and field position is going to play a significant role in their success. Dickson’s $4.25 million cap hit is roughly the same as Josh Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, players I would say are less valuable than the punter.

Dickson is a 2026 free agent and the team could look to extend him this fall. I’m not sure that would have a significant impact on his cap hit at all, but odds are he’s not going to make more than $4m per season, which would be the top number in the NFL. A different punter might cost $2.5 million. Is $1.5m a big enough number to consider a change?

Jason Myers is an easier case to argue for a change, which I did so here on February 15th. The general idea would be to at least sign somebody to compete against and see what happens as Myers makes almost $7 million this year, second only to Justin Tucker and well…let’s just say that means that Myers might soon be the highest-paid kicker in the NFL.

It’s playing with fire a bit because Myers has one of the strongest legs in the league and for the most part is still one of the most accurate. It’s crazy that he made 9 kicks from 50+ last season but most of us were ho-hum about it because making field goals in the NFL has almost become TOO easy.

MTSeahawkFan: It'd be interesting to compare the NFC West teams in terms of: position strengths, position weaknesses, and salary cap room to anticipate draft needs and FA signings.

This is probably best served after the draft with a longer post or a series of posts. One of the interesting arguments this year will be how the NFC West quarterbacks stack up against one another:

• Matthew Stafford, Rams

• Kyler Murray, Cardinals

• Brock Purdy, 49ers

• Sam Darnold, Seahawks

If nothing else, Seattle could end up with one of the better bargains at the position if the 49ers extend and overpay Purdy in 2025. Say what you will about Darnold making $33 million per season, the premise of paying Purdy $55 million per season should be enticing to San Francisco’s division rivals…and I like Purdy more than most.

This looks like a make-or-break season for Murray (still $54m in dead money in 2026 if he’s released!) and Stafford is on a year-to-year plan.

Even if the Seahawks QB ranks 4th in the division this year, I think Seattle’s situation is the best as far as flexibility in 2026. Although Darnold’s contract kind of locks him in through 2026, I would take his deal over Murray’s, over Purdy’s hypothetical extension, and Stafford might retire.

At the most important position, the Seahawks have a QB with an interesting ceiling, a low floor, but plenty of options if Darnold falls flat.

Largentium: This is probably more of a full article-type question, but what about a breakdown of what we can expect from Klint Kubiak's offense in a little more detail based on what he's done in the past?

You are correct, lots to unpack here and that we can unfold over the next four months. There’s not much to go off of yet because his situations in Minnesota and New Orleans were so short-lived and the ingredients he was cooking with were decidedly different than what’s in Seattle’s pantry, but I will try my best to answer your question over the coming months. Let’s see what the 90-man roster looks like after the draft.

Glassmonkey: What is the correlation between college interceptions and passes defensed and the same stats in the NFL? Would it be possible to do an analysis of RG/RT draft picks that successfully transitioned to LG?

I contacted our friend All-22 Films for his coaching and film experience to see what he said about your interceptions question:

“I think that could depend on situation sometimes, meaning that at the college level certain DBs might get ignored, or not be targeted much. Whereas in the NFL they might actually get more opportunities to make plays sometimes. This doesn't apply to everyone, but thinking of a guy like Travis Hunter, say he does end up playing 80-90% of the game at CB and another 50% of the game at WR in the NFL, there might be teams who target him specfically to make him work harder, whereas in college he was largely ignored some games.

On a more "predictable" level, I'm not sure what the correlation would be because INTs are so arbitrary sometimes. Look at Woolen. Guy has two INTs in over 40 games in college and then 6 as a rookie. Perhaps that lines up with what I mentioned intitally, some of the high level guys aren't targeted as much?”

As always, keep an eye on his YouTube channel and ask for more Seahawks content in the comments!

I think his point about Hunter is really interesting and I haven’t heard that anywhere else before. Sure, if the guy is going to play both ways, why not throw a bunch of high-percentage passes at the guy he’s covering just to get him tired from tackling and chasing him down? Makes sense to me.

It does seem really hard to quantify one player’s “ability” to make interceptions and then expect him to repeat it year after year. Those ones are rare.

You have Richard Sherman, who intercepted six passes over his last two seasons at Stanford, which is a really good number. Then he had four as a rookie, eight in year two, eight in year three, and four in year four.

Sherman intercepted 24 passes in his first four seasons even in spite of being one of the least-targeted corners in the NFL. Incredible! He’s a Hall of Fame cornerback, in my opinion.

And even Sherman saw how hard that is to maintain:

• He had just 13 interceptions over his final seven seasons combined

As for a hardcore analysis on your question with data, I’ll have to get back to you. If any readers know the answer, please let us know:

As to the guard/tackle question, I think it’s a great thing to think about but I wonder if there’s even enough data to answer due to its specificity. And how do we define “successfully”? Most people, including experts, seem to struggle even assigning proper valuations to offensive linemen because you just have to be so heavily invested in “the film” due to a lack of empirical data.

Generally, I would say this:

Every player is unique. Sherman is a perfect example of how historical data and analysis can be useless. How much data would have supported the notion that a former receiver-turned-corner who is a fifth round pick with maybe “marginal speed” ending up as a top-3 cornerback of his era?

Sometimes you just have to trust players because you see “it” in them. Often the best ones had to break the mold. Sherman, Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor, and so on. Can the Seahawks draft a tackle who becomes a Pro Bowl guard? Of course they can. Can Abe Lucas change positions and become a Pro Bowl guard? Of course he could.

I’m not sure that anybody knows how many times a right tackle or a right guard moved to left guard and became successful. But I do know how many times it would take for Seattle to end up with an upgrade at that position:

Once.

And I would add, don’t give up hope in Sataoa Laumea, Christian Haynes, Anthony Bradford. Even if the Seahawks were to start the timeline on a move this year, the returns probably wouldn’t happen for 1-2 more in the future.

Seaside Joe 2226