Why Seahawks lose games they should win

Hidden Yardage, Open Wounds

In their loss to the Rams, the Seahawks had the following advantages but still lost 26-20 in overtime:

• 107 rushing yards to 68

• 363 passing yards to 298

• 424 total yards to 366

• 32:53 time of possession to 32:10 (OT)

• Average starting field position: 28.3 to 25*

• 44.7 net yards/punt to 33.5 NY/P (more important than you think)

Now let’s get to the stats that actually explain why the Seahawks lost and continue to lose close games to quality opponents who focus on beating them in every phase of football.

Hidden Yardage and Special Teams

That last stat should have been a huge advantage for Seattle: Michael Dickson and Ty Zentner each punted seven times, meaning that the total net difference in yardage was 313 yards for the Seahawks and 235 yards for the Rams, equaling a 78-yard advantage for Seattle.

Bill Parcells, the co-creator of what we know as “hidden yardage”, would tell you that a 78 yard net punt advantage is almost the same as scoring a touchdown, as he wrote for The 33rd Team this past summer:

The premise is that 100 yards of field position should equate to seven points. The more I thought about it, the more I asked myself, “If this yardage is so important, where is it coming from? Let’s take the entire scope of the yardage and evaluate it.” So, I did.

Parcells notes the following important stats that few of us ever think about:

• Average starting field position difference

• Penalty yardage difference

• Net punting yardage difference

• Turnover difference, which Parcells calls “the most significant stat in football”

Parcells even cites punter Reyna Thompson as one of the most important players on his 1990 Super Bowl champion Giants:

Largely because of Thompson, our net punting went up almost 7 yards a punt on 70 punts, which comes to 480 yards. Divide that by 16 games, and that’s 30 yards — three first downs — a game. Using the hidden yardage premise, you’re talking about two-and-a-half points just in that one category.

Is it merely coincidence that Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub is considered by many to be the best such coach in the league? Without giving Toub sole credit for Kansas City’s three Super Bowl wins, the Chiefs are constantly winning games (and playoff games) by 1-3 points.

Kansas City’s biggest competition to win another Super Bowl could be the Ravens and John Harbaugh could be the only special teams coach better than Toub.

If you’d rather watch a video that explains Hidden Yardage, I recommend vIQtory Sports for this and anything else related to understanding football better:

But the Seahawks CRUSHED the Rams in net punting yardage (their starting punter was out sick last week) and still lost. Why did the Seahawks lose?

Seahawks Bad Stats

• Seahawks 3 turnovers::Rams 1 turnover

• Seahawks 95 penalty yards::Rams 83 penalty yards

• Seahawks 46 yards lost on sacks::Rams 0 yards lost

Parcells doesn’t mention sacks, but that feels just as relevant, especially when one team allows seven and the other allows zero.

I put an asterisk on the average starting field position count earlier — 28.3 to 25 — because one of the Rams’ “possessions” should have been the 103-yard pick-six by Kam Kinchens. That right there was the same as a one-play, one-person drive that went the length of the field based on one horrible sequence by Seattle’s offense.

Also, the Rams shouldn’t be punished for starting a drive at the 7 when the previous play was a red zone interception. When the Seahawks were winning the game, they were winning the field position battle:

• L.A.’s first 4 drives started at the 11, 50 (off of INT), 21, and 10

• The Rams punted on all 4 drives

• L.A.’s next 4 drives started at the 37, 25, 25, and 35

• The Rams scored 13 points on those drives (FG, INT, TD, FG)

Seattle had 10 drives that didn’t score and 3 drives that ended in a touchdown: Their TD drives started at the 30, 40, and 27.

But in recent years when a team manages to pin the Seahawks inside their own 20 to start a drive, Seattle has proven that they can’t consistently get into scoring range. This was even true in the Seahawks 34-14 win over the Falcons, the best game the offense has had in a long time and largely because of this stat…

Seattle’s average starting field position against the Falcons: 32.5

That’s an average difference of 4 yards per drive, meaning that if we’re comparing 10 drives that’s 40 yards (FOUR FIRST DOWNS) per game!

The Seahawks three touchdown drives against Atlanta started at the 44, 32, and 37. Of their four drives that started at the 30 or worse, Seattle had a FG, punt, punt, and punt. This is relevant.

A week later against the Bills, the Seahawks only started one drive past their own 30: Josh Jobe intercepted Josh Allen and put Seattle at the Buffalo 7. Four plays later, the Seahawks turned it over on downs, squandering that gift.

And when the Seahawks started at their own 9 and then had a 71-yard drive on the previous series, they settled for a field goal. If they had started from the 30, could they have scored a touchdown?

Isaac Punts, another must-subcribe YouTube channel, detailed hidden yardage this week as well in a video about the Titans historically-bad special teams:

What can the Seahawks do about it?

Obviously, Seattle can’t continue to turn the ball over at their current rate. The Seahawks were 6-1 last season when they didn’t turn the ball over compared to 3-7 when they did. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year when they don’t turn the ball over, compared to 2-5 when they don’t. That’s a two-year combined total of 8-1 vs. 5-12. The Seahawks would have one of the best records in the NFL right now if they weren’t 29th in turnovers.

You can call that “bad luck”, but against the Rams there were 5 total fumbles (3 by Seattle, 2 by L.A.) and all 5 were recovered by the offense, so luck mostly evened out last week.

• Stop turning the ball over

• Stop getting so many penalties

• Make better decisions on returns (Dee Williams)

As much as we can point fingers at guards, quarterbacks, linebackers, and corners, aside from turnovers and penalties the Seahawks have actually executed plays on offense and defense to the same degree as any other team in the NFC West has this season. They even outgained the Rams by 58 yards of total offense and 78 yards of net punting yards, which at 136 yards is almost the same as saying “9 points” according to one of the best coaches in football history.

But few NFL teams will EVER win games that have three turnovers…penalties that take you out of scoring range…and gifting points to the other team’s defense.

It’s like the Seahawks are almost good enough. Which I’ll almost care about as soon as the NFL names it the almost Super Bowl champion. Until then, the Seahawks need find their hidden yardage again.

Seaside Joe 2049