7 Bold Seahawks Predictions for 2024

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Leonard Williams as the face of the 2024 Seahawks? Seaside Joe 1703

I know that Seahawks fans are solely focused on what’s happening in 2023, like Seattle’s surprising place in the near-midseason standings:

Or the pre-deadline trade for Leonard Williams (7 reasons it’s a good move!) in attempt to move up those standings.

But today’s article about the future is actually inspired by how interesting and unexpected this season has gone for a few Seahawks: The defense is better than most predicted, the offense is a little worse, and the decisions for how to create-and-then-use 2024 cap space has probably changed because of how the last two months have gone for Seattle.

“Bold predictions” means what it implies: These are thoughts and expectations that are intended to give you pause and consider, “Really?”

However, it wouldn’t be Seaside Joe if I didn’t also provide the research and information that has led me to believe that these outcomes are possible, if not in some cases probable.

It also wouldn’t be this place if I didn’t say that today is the 1,702nd day in a row of Seaside Joe and if you’ve enjoyed the regular free content here (like this post) then please do consider at least a temporary monthly subscription to the newsletter. Don’t make me bust out the data that shows how much more work is done here (and without ads or sponsors) than literally anywhere else.

The Seahawks player who made me want to write this post to write about the season he’s going to have in 2024 is Jaxon Smith-Njigba and then that got me thinking of all the ramifications that could have on the makeup of the roster and other Seattle bold predictions. Just like the alphabet though, it doesn’t end with J-S-N.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads team in targets, catches, and yards

Before the season, I wrote “I got a feeling…” about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, specifically that he would have an even more impactful rookie season than expected and be frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Well, unless Puka Nacua and C.J. Stroud and quite a few other rookies get trapped in a haunted house for the next 2.5 months, that’s not going to happen. But similar to his career at Ohio State, it seems Smith-Njigba’s becoming more dangerous by the week as he acclimates to the NFL.

Since a spotlight was put on Geno Smith for not targeting Smith-Njigba enough in the loss to the Bengals, the Seahawks quarterback has thrown touchdowns to him in each of the last two weeks, including Sunday’s game-winner. Though the stats are still pretty modest, Smith-Njigba has caught 11 of 16 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games.

Furthermore, his presence in the screen game—yes, SCREENS—prove that he could quite literally change how the team does offense.

At this rate, he could have the type of rookie seasons that the Seahawks got from Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, two receivers who did end up being Seattle’s number one. Similar to the transitions from Golden Tate to Baldwin (Tate led the team in targets, catches, yards in 2013 prior to leaving in free agency), Baldwin to Lockett, and Lockett to DK Metcalf (for any faults he may have, Metcalf has been the team’s most targeted receiver), maybe all roads lead to JSN.

Soon.

When Metcalf missed a game, Smith-Njigba was the most-targeted player on the team. Him, Jake Bobo, and DK all have two touchdowns, while Lockett has three. Smith-Njigba may yet finish the season with more catches than Metcalf (it’s currently 27-23 DK) and it would appear as though the succession plan was to have Seattle’s “other” first round pick take the reins from Lockett in a year or two.

Clearly, Lockett isn’t ready to let go.

The 31-year-old veteran has 18 catches on 22 targets for 213 yards in the past three games and he’s raised his yards per target average from 4.9 in Weeks 1-3 to 7.6 on the season.

The Seahawks face a tough decision with Lockett in 2024: Do they cut him to save $7 million, keep him where he’s at ($27 million cap hit), or restructure him to save $7 million and raise his cap hit in 2025? Ultimately, Pete Carroll could decide to keep him and restructure (Seattle desperately needs the money) but that might not slow down JSN’s development towards being the team’s next number one.

As far as Metcalf, I could see Smith-Njigba getting open more often and getting more targets than him in 2024, assuming the Seahawks haven’t made a blockbuster trade by then.

If I had to put a bet on one player to lead the Seahawks in TARGETS next season, it would be Smith-Njigba, which then could lead to catches and yards, of course.

Seahawks keep Noah Fant over Will Dissly

We are barreling towards the moment when everyone accepts that “The Seahawks are going to cut Will Dissly” is a foregone conclusion. In the last four games, Dissly has played a lot of snaps but has been targeted just one time and he caught a 4-yard pass.

The tight end position does entail blocking, but Dissly would be the only blocking tight end who makes $10 million.

And even if I wanted to make a case for keeping Dissly, I’m less inclined to do so because Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are set to become free agents. Fant may never become George Kittle, but I’m impressed with the season he is having: 14 catches on 16 targets, 226 yards.

It doesn’t really matter to me if Fant leads all tight ends in DVOA. He could break the record for tight end DVOA and it wouldn’t change the fact that he has six catches in the last four games and zero touchdowns on the season. Volume matters. To say that Fant is an elite tight end because of several plays over seven games would be like a teacher grading a test and stopping after three correct questions…”Well, these are all right, so I must assume the rest are correct too! A+!”

If only I was so lucky.

Could Fant be a 10-touchdown player on another offense? Maybe! All the more reason Seattle will need to open the checkbook to keep him. The Seahawks would save $7 million to release Dissly, so that is the probable move unless he agrees to take a pay cut. Fant could make as much as $12-$13 million per season, which has been the going rate for former first round tight ends who have had underwhelming careers.

There could be enough left to sign Parkinson too.

The Seahawks extend Leonard Williams

There’s been a little bit made of the fact that the 49ers only traded a compensatory third round pick for Chase Young after the Seahawks gave up a second and a fifth for Williams. Ummm, sorry to break it to people who thought that Chase Young would be better and healthier than he’s been…Leonard Williams is more valuable.

To put the second round pick in context again, what if the Seahawks were to have used that selection on someone who turned out to be like Darrell Taylor. Would that be worth more than Williams, age 30-33?

Setting aside salary cap ramifications, I would rather have Williams towards the end of his career than what Taylor has done in the first 3.5 years of his career.

I expect Seattle to treat Leonard Williams more like a free agent signing that they had to give up a draft pick for than as a rental. The Seahawks are going to get cap relief when Quandre Diggs leaves, whether that be in 2024 or 2025; when Jamal Adams leaves, if that happens in 2024 or 2025; when Lockett leaves; and when the salary cap goes up in the coming years.

I see Williams getting extended before free agency in March.

Bobby Wagner outlasts Jordyn Brooks

This may be the boldest claim yet, as I’m not sure that even I’m on board yet, but there’s some reason to it. Despite Wagner being seven years older than Brooks and 34 next season, it is possible that the younger linebacker either prices himself out of Seattle or doesn’t do enough to price himself in.

Wagner is the team’s leading tackler (76) and Brooks is second (67). I would say that Brooks has probably been better (100 fewer snaps but is coming back from a torn ACL) but not by much. That’s an interesting statement to say about players who come from different generations.

Just because Bobby Wagner isn’t the future of Seahawks linebackers, that doesn’t mean that Jordyn Brooks has to be.

Brooks has 3.5 sacks this season, but I would say that Sunday’s strip fumble against P.J. Walker was his first legitimate one. I have nothing against Brooks, just believe that in the interest of Seattle keeping their top priorities on a strict budget, he could be left out and that Bobby could actually be the bridge to the next one.

Boye Mafe is voted a top-100 player

I was going to say top-50 and then I looked at 2023’s sack leaders. Even though Mafe has a sack in each of the last five games, there are still 20 players who have more than him this season. Mafe has only played in six games…Still, I can only go off of what’s happened, not what could have happened.

Being considered one of the top-100 players in the NFL only two years after being a second round pick would be a huge accomplishment and say a lot about how much better Mafe has been than the league expected. Mafe’s eight career sacks is the fourth-most of the 2022 class (case in point about his top-100 competition is that Aidan Hutchson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and George Karlaftis all have at least 12) and he has more than number one overall pick Travon Walker.

Lists and awards don’t mean as much as the team acquiring good players so to put it another way…Boye Mafe is going to be (and in some ways already is) a GREAT player.

Seahawks draft a tackle with first pick

As I wrote a week ago, I could see the Seahawks picking a right tackle with their first pick in the 2024 draft. Abe Lucas isn’t going to return this week and nobody knows for sure when he will play again, if at all this season. Pete Carroll’s been happy with Stone Forsythe at right tackle and Jason Peters debuted against the Browns, but Seattle has a good opportunity to make the offense better by drafting an offensive tackle in 2024.

Though Charles Cross is situated at left tackle for the long haul and Lucas was so good as a rookie, picking another tackle could solve two problems at once: Better depth at a vitally important position and being able to move one of those players inside to guard.

My draft position predictions for the Seahawks haven’t been too far off recently: In 2022, I initially had Charles Cross as the pick, and also said that Seattle would draft an edge rusher and a running back on day two. In 2023, I predicted that Devon Witherspon would be the pick, with receiver and edge rusher not far behind.

It’s really not that hard to do though: Pete has spent a lot of early picks on tackles who turned into guards!

Seahawks draft or sign Grayson McCall

Because I just had to put it out there again.